There Is Clear Oversupply And Lower Prices Are In Store
A report from the Ahwatukee Foothills News in Arizona. "While the market will stabilize, it’s expected to remain challenging. The Cromford Report – a leading analyst leading analyst of the Valley housing market – said last week, 'We are seeing gradual improvement in the demand trend, and supply has finally stopped increasing in most areas, which is what we expect to see once Thanksgiving is over.' And it noted that while only Goodyear among 17 Valley cities had market conditions favorable to sellers, the other 16 still were still deteriorating for sellers. It said buyers in Queen Creek, Goodyear and Maricopa had a particularly strong advantage."
McClatchy Washington Bureau. "The housing market in California and elsewhere could use the boost. Sales statewide dropped slightly in October from September and were down 11.9% from a year earlier. But Jennifer Branchini, a Bay area Realtor and president of the California Association of Realtors, saw potential for better times. 'Despite rates remaining elevated, many other factors have swung in favor of buyers recently including more properties staying on the market longer before selling and fewer homes selling over list price, which could motivate more sellers to offer concessions,' she said in a statement."
NBC Bay Area in California. "There are some new problems involving a property company that's already linked to several multi-million-dollar business scandals in the Bay Area. Z&L Properties now appears poised to default on a huge luxury condo project in downtown San Jose called 188 West Saint James Towers. The luxury condo project was once touted as an example of the city’s prospering downtown. According to the Homeowners Association Board, the Foster City-based developer is facing foreclosure for failing to pay years of monthly homeowners dues of $600 to $800 on more than 200 empty unsold units. San Jose resident Jennifer said to save their homes, they held a special election to remove the two Z&L board members who were refusing to pay up."
"'A building if this size takes money to run, right? Even if we’re just talking about electricity and water,' she said. 'So, my concerns are that we’re not going to be able to make those payments with the money that is coming in from the residents that do live here.' But some tower condo owners say they can’t afford to just wait. NBC Bay Area could not reach Z&L for comment. In fact, their phones and email access have been disconnected. At this point, residents may not get their answers except in a courtroom."
The San Diego Reader in California. "Twenty-five-year-old Morgan Kean wanted to live downtown because 'it’s where all the action is.' When she made the decision to move to East Village near 14th and J, she was aware that the area had some issues with homelessness and crime. Kean says there’s a general sense of chaos in the East Village — it’s not clear who’s in charge of doing what. 'I see safety patrol officers and don’t really know what their roles are. I’ve asked for help, and they’re like, ‘That’s not in our jurisdiction.’ Really?'"
"Vlad Slavskii, an employee at Jai Jus, expresses both frustration with and compassion for the homeless. Sometimes they’re harmless, he concedes, but he’s also had merchandise stolen and seen psychiatric meltdowns, 'which scare the customers.' One woman took a dog bowl, which was set outside the store for the convenience of customers’ dogs, and threw it against the door. 'She was banging her head on the door like she was in crisis,' he says. I ask him if the recently imposed anti-camping ordinance has helped alleviate the problem. 'The ban didn’t help,' he says. 'It just moved the people around the streets, from one side to the other.'"
From DS News. "'Despite high-cost headwinds, buyers have a few things to be thankful for in today's market,' said Skylar Olsen, Chief Economist at Zillow. 'Home prices are cooling down faster than normal as new listings from existing owners and total inventory slowly recover. Mortgage rates are still above 7%, but price cuts are surprisingly common.' The Zillow Home Value Index declined 0.4% from October to November, falling slightly faster than what was previously considered 'normal' for this time of year. The largest annual drops were in New Orleans (-8.9%), Austin, Texas (-8.2%), and San Antonio (-3%), with those last two metros serving as examples of how a surge in new construction is helping rebalance markets."
"Sellers are responding to affordability challenges by cutting list prices. The share of listings that saw a price cut in November is unseasonably high at 22.6%—even more so than October's rate of 25%. Agents are updating pricing strategies as persistently high mortgage rates weigh on homebuyers. Moving into winter, there's a good chance homebuyers will have more wiggle room in negotiations. Price cuts are most common in Tampa (33%), Indianapolis (31.7%), Salt Lake City (30.8%), and Nashville (30.5%)."
The Commercial Observer. "It hasn’t been an easy year for New York City commercial real estate. 'The office market has been really robust in certain sectors, and that has been at the expense of the bottom third of the market, which is just not functioning at all,' said Mark Weiss, an office leasing broker at Cushman & Wakefield. 'It doesn’t matter if the bottom portion of the market has a 20 or 30 percent vacancy rate. If they can’t perform and stay solvent, people will not stay in those buildings or go to those buildings.'"
"Similarly, there were only 13 multifamily trades, totaling $797 million, in the third quarter of this year, down from 42 sales for $2.7 billion during the same period last year. Fundamentally, many commercial landlords are overleveraged, or have loans coming due and are unable to refinance their properties with interest rates floating between 7 and 8 percent. 'A lot of folks and owners want to sell but they can’t, because their exit strategy doesn’t take them out of their [financial] obligations,' said Adelaide Polsinelli, an investment sales broker at Compass. 'The options become slim. Do you hand back the keys or hope that the market turns in the next two, three, five years?'"
The Globe and Mail. "After a lacklustre fall in Toronto-area real estate, a few determined home buyers are willing to spar with competing bidders as 2023 draws to a close. Some buyers keep an eye on properties they like, says Elli Davis, real estate agent with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, and submit an offer with the hope that the seller is eager to land a deal before year-end. If a house has been sitting for longer than 90 days, buyers have more negotiating power, she adds. Some house hunters also lob in a lowball offer to test the seller’s appetite for negotiation. Ms. Davis also receives constant queries from agents representing buyers who try to pry out the lowest number a seller will accept. In mid-town, Ms. Davis drew two offers for a detached four-bedroom house after trimming the asking price to $2.495-million from $2.685-million. Ms. Davis listed the house in early November, then cut the price two weeks later. The house sold slightly below asking, she says."
"And while she has had a few deals which came together quickly in recent weeks, some properties are not moving, says Ms. Davis, who has had several of her listings since the summer. 'A seller has to be realistic now,' she says. 'If the offers are coming in much, much lower, the buyers think that’s what the house is worth.' She’s advising homeowners who want to sell to take reasonable offers now or be willing to hold the property for two or three years."
The Toronto Sun in Canada. "The Toronto real estate market has stalled as sellers are unmotivated to drop prices. One downtown home is getting attention for its price — and not in a good way. The listing for the eight-foot-wide house at 383 Shuter St. was recently suspended, but realtor Natalie Costello shared a video tour of multi-storied home and said in the comments that it will be 'back on the market' soon. 'Exploring the wonders of Toronto’s 8-foot-wide gem!' Costello captioned the video. 'Despite its narrow width, this space feels surprisingly open and full of unique possibilities,' she continued. 'From open staircases to bright windows, it’s not your typical cramped space. For under a million bucks in the city, this is a steal! It’s not like a bowling alley feel like I thought it was gonna be.' She did admit that she hit her head as she walked up one staircase, but ultimately called it a 'pretty great space.'"
"While many thought it was a cool space and agreed with Costello on the design, others were incensed by what the buyer gets for the nearly $1-million price tag. 'Let’s stop normalizing this type of shoebox living,' one person commented. 'Each room is literally on a different floor.' Another added: 'I’m not about to be claustrophobic in my own house.' A second person added: 'R.I.P. the home owners knees after about 5 years…' Ravi Chandler likened Costello to a used car salesman in his repost of the video. 'Toronto has lost its f***ing mind,' he ranted. 'And for a realtor to say this 8 foot wide property feel quite large, and very open is disingenuous and snakeskin oil salesman-like.' Chandler did ask the one question many wanted the answer to: 'How does one even move furniture into and out of this place with those narrow stairs?'"
Estonian Public Broadcasting. "Buyer shortage has seen developers rent out new apartments in bulk, which has created oversupply on the rental market. This is causing rent prices for newer and more expensive apartments to come down. While the flats on the top floors of ITM Grupp's Harkuranna Torn development have largely been sold, the lower stories of the 14-floor building remain vacant. Real estate agent Nikita Mostepanov said that sales are not going well. 'It is slow going today with the Euribor rate where it is. People are rather waiting to see what the future will bring. I don't think we'll see improvement this year. Perhaps next spring. There is little in the way of sales right now,' he shared. This is why the developer has instead decided to furnish and rent out some of the apartments at the Harkuranna Torn."
"But such practices have driven up the number of available rental spaces in Tallinn. 'We might see 10-20, even 60 apartments come up for rent in some areas, which correlates to how many flats have not been sold in a given area,' said Risto Vähi, analyst for real estate agents Uus Maa. This has in turn affected rent prices in the capital. Vähi said that a lot of new rental space hitting the market will inevitably bring prices down and give those looking for a place to live the upper hand in negotiations. 'The price is coming down everywhere,' he said."
"Karin Noppel-Kokkerov, head of the City24 real estate classifieds portal suggested that prices are coming down in the more expensive end of the market. 'Prices tend to be headed down. While the average price is up 1 percent in Lasnamäe, there is clear oversupply and lower prices are in store in the more expensive end of the market in Tallinn.'"
From 7 News. "What’s it like owning a home in Australia? For one couple, the dream of owning a home has been nothing short of a nightmare. The Australian pair purchased their first property in the suburbs — but quickly discovered that life as homeowners was not what they had expected. Their plight was revealed after Sydney friends Alex Hourigan and Sally McMullen asked everyday Aussies to share their worst investments of 2023, on their podcast Two Broke Chicks. One follower responded to the call out, to dish the things no one tells you when buying a house. 'Buying a house was a bad investment. My partner and I couldn’t afford a house close to the city so we bought way out in the suburbs,' she explained."
"But with the crippling cost of living and rising interest rates, the couple is now struggling to keep up with the mortgage. 'I just had to start a second job due to the rising interest rates and needing to afford mortgage payments,' the woman said. 'House maintenance is expensive… No more calling up your landlord, that’s your problem now.' To make matters worse, the pair realised the commute to and from work was taking a huge toll on their lives. 'Getting into the city is expensive,' she said. 'The commute takes about two to three hours a day… Travel is not looking like a viable option.'"
"Her story sparked a heated debate among Australians — with many saying they couldn’t agree more with her regret. 'Honestly owning a house has been the worst thing for my mental health,' one shared. 'Prior to buying I had money for anything, constantly travelled, shopping sprees and a brand new car. I was not under any financial pressure whatsoever. Since buying however so much of my money goes on the house. I’ve done some renovations which has been upwards of $60,000. I used to dream of having $30,000 to blow on a trip overseas. I know it’s like, ‘Boohoo you own a house… privileged people problems’. But honestly wish I waited until I was older to buy, spending my early 20s being responsible and putting majority of my money I work so hard for into the house has been depressing. I miss being reckless and carefree.'"
From Semafor. "China’s internet regulator is cracking down on 'pessimistic' content that paints a bleak picture of the economy, the latest move by Beijing to control the digital narrative. The updates to China’s content moderation campaign – named – or 'clear and bright' in Mandarin – homes in on short-form video platforms like Douyin, which have become the epicenter for sociocultural debate in China. With youth unemployment widespread amid a slowing economy, the watchdog also said it would remove videos that promote 'the wrong career values' as the country struggles to rebound from the pandemic."
"Censors this year silenced two 'mortgage slaves' who captivated social media with their economic woes. Liang Liang and Li Jun became internet sensations in 2022, with the husband and wife team sharing their love story on platforms such as Weibo and Bilibili, and documenting their excitement at buying their first home. But their dream soured after a Chinese real estate developer collapsed, leaving construction on their apartment unfinished and the couple on the hook for mortgage payments. When they went to update followers about their situation, their accounts were quickly blocked. The case sparked a viral conversation about how President Xi Jinping’s 'Chinese dream' is now unattainable for many hard-working couples. 'Liang Liang and Li Jun are just the tip of the iceberg,' one Weibo user wrote."