Mortgage Rates Said, Hold My Beer, And The Honeymoon Is Over
A report from KCBD in Texas. "In its annual market survey the Lubbock Land Company analyzed data for single family houses from 2023 and compared it to the past 30 years. The data shows 2023 brought an all-time high of 271 completed general homes built for purchase that were not sold. The President of the company, Andy Bean, said that provides 2024 buyers with many options. 'So, in 2023 we have a very large number of complete and unsold homes, a great selection for buyers out there,' Bean said. So, now Lubbock is looking at larger inventory with those unsold homes including more than six months supply of new homes."
KELO in South Dakota. "The housing market slowed dramatically over the past year as prices and interest rates soared. While many would-be home buyers may be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to cool even further. The price of entry level homes in Sioux Falls is much higher than it was just a few years ago. Lydia Freedon has been a property manager for more than two decades. She says rental prices in Sioux Falls saw a big jump over the past two years, but– 'Right now its chilled a little bit, as far as rent prices going up, that’s slowed a little bit,' Freedon said. She says part of the reason rental prices are leveling off is because more rental properties are coming on the market. 'When houses aren’t selling. Then the owners will say, if I can’t sell, I’m going to rent. So then we had a lot more rental houses on the market,' Freedon said."
From CBS 8 in California. "When some people have lost everything in last week's flood, others are seeing it as an opportunity to capitalize on the disaster. Neighbors in Southcrest and Mountain View have been approached by house flippers going door-to-door with lowball cash offers for their homes. Neighbors told CBS 8 home prices in the area range from $600,000 to $700,000 dollars, a far cry from some of the offers being made. Many feel it’s an insensitive tactic, if not predatory. 'If I had the authority, I would stop them. I would kick them out of the neighborhood,' said Ramon De La Mora, who lives nearby. 'It is way too soon. It seems to me like it’s abuse because if I didn’t have insurance and they came and offered me something, I might take it.' President of the San Diego Association of Realtors, Spencer Lugash, wants to warn people to avoid making rash decisions to sell their homes."
ABC 10 in California. "The pandemic was a wild ride for the Sacramento region's housing market; just ask realtor Dana Harward. 'These homes we're in now… when they went up originally in 2018 just before the pandemic, they were running anywhere from high $300,000 to low $400,000,' Harward explained as she drove our ABC10 crew around a popular suburban neighborhood in Natomas. During the pandemic to now, those same homes are selling for double. 'This one sold for $745,000,' Harward said, pointing to a home. 'It felt like a piranha feeding frenzy,' said Harward."
"A frenzy that appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist describes as the most 'aggressive housing market' he's ever seen. Lundquist's data shows while the market steadily grew for nine years before the pandemic, it was nothing compared to growth between March 2020 and May 2022. During those two short years, the median price of a home increased in our region by 42%, Lundquist says. 'Earlier in the year we were reporting really aggressive housing stats, massive demand and then mortgage rates said, 'Hold my beer.' And we're in this market where the honeymoon is over. I think it's hard for sellers to respond. I think that sellers were in the driver's seat. They had nothing but glowing headlines for years - they're used to buyers who are offering over asking price, waiving all the contingencies and really saying where sellers are in control. Buyers are in a place where they're eyeing prices and it's more difficult to afford so they have time on their side.'"
The Real Deal. "Investors’ interest in Sun Belt multifamily has slowed over the past year, as rate hikes and falling rents have left some in bad shape. The distress in the region’s multifamily is a stark contrast from just two or three years ago, when favorable migration patterns, rent growth and low borrowing costs led to a boom in investment. Bidding wars broke out across the region, and properties changed hands at unsustainable prices, said Kyle Matthews, CEO of brokerage Matthews Real Estate Investment Services. Meanwhile, a slew of developer bets, supported by pro-development policies, led to an oversupply problem. 'If you let developers build, what will they do? They’re going to build, build, build until they overbuild,' Matthews said."
From CBC News in Canada. "The provincial agency regulating gaming in Ontario has fined the owner of Fallsview Casino and Resort in Niagara Falls, Ont., for allegedly failing to minimize the risk of money laundering. The registrar of the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) issued a penalty of $70,000 to MGE Niagara Entertainment Inc., which owns the casino, it said in a statement. The regulator says that in April, a casino patron brought in $80,000 in strapped $100 bills from a reusable grocery bag. 'Surveillance showed that once the money was counted and confirmed, the patron left the table with casino chips without playing at that time.'"
"The AGCO alleges that although Fallsview had identified the player as 'high risk,' it did not notify the regulator and on-site police as required. As well, the regulator says, Fallsview 'failed to take any meaningful steps to ascertain and corroborate the patron's source of funds' — thereby failing to follow anti-money-laundering rules. The company said it 'respectfully' disagrees with the AGCO's decision and will be appealing it, it said in an emailed statement. In 2022, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police announced charges related to an investigation that began in 2017 'about a potential money laundering scheme that was operating through casinos in the GTA and Niagara regions.'"
The Telegraph in the UK. "Home sellers are being forced to slash their asking prices by 10pc or more as the market stagnates in the wake of surging interest rates. A fifth of sellers are cutting prices by a tenth or greater, according to the property website Zoopla. In London and the South East, the proportion of sellers accepting a discount on this scale rises to almost one in four. Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said: 'This improvement in activity will support sales volumes which, at one million, reached an eleven year low in 2023. We don’t see these trends as a precursor to higher prices in 2024 as it remains a buyer’s market. Over-optimism by sellers could quickly stall the current improvement in market activity.'"
From News.com.au. "A construction company owned by a playboy property developer that had its Western Australia registration renewal refused last year, preventing it from doing any building work in the state, has collapsed into liquidation. Perth-based developer, FTD Construction Pty Ltd, is 100 per cent owned by its sole director, self-styled playboy Ricky Hirsch. The business went into liquidation yesterday, with Mathieu Tribut from GTS Advisory appointed as liquidator. The lack of registration meant that homeowners with incomplete or defective building work done by the business could make a claim against their home indemnity insurance policy, however investors who backed the projects were left out of pocket."
"According to its website, FTD Developments targets investment from wholesale and sophisticated investors with a minimum investment of $500,000, however, an older version of its website indicates that it was previously open to ‘mum and dad’ investors, some of whom told The West Australian they had invested their superannuation and have 'lost everything.' 'We are pretty sure we have lost everything,' one investor said. 'There is a group of people in the same situation. Some have lost their own properties with banks coming at them to reclaim unpaid loans. Relationships have broken down.' Some investors told The West Australian they were taken out on Mr Hirsch’s luxury motor boat before committing to their investment."
The Telegraph. "Evergrande, the embattled Chinese real estate giant with debts of $300 billion, has just been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong. What effect will this have, both within China and across the global economy? This latest twist is no surprise. Evergrande has long been dead in the water. The point to grasp is that Evergrande’s latest setback will not trigger a financial crisis in China; it is rather the result of the financial crisis which has been deepening for at least four years. For far too long, up to 30 per cent of the Chinese economy had depended on a grossly inflated domestic property bubble."
"The CCP needs to devolve more economic powers to the private sector, and reverse the trend to ever-tightening centralisation. Yet Xi Jinping, seemingly unable to relinquish the self-defeating Marxist-Leninist ideology of strengthened Party and personal control, has abandoned the former and doubled down on the latter. The Hong Kong ruling may not in itself deliver the death-blow to Evergrande; the chances of full PRC co-operation in the process of liquidation in mainland China are slim. Some other formula will probably be adopted to disperse its toxic fragments more discreetly."
"But this too symbolises the issue of credibility the CCP is facing. Beijing remains astride the obsolete economic tiger on which Party power and authority has long depended. Now the tiger’s days are plainly numbered, the Chinese leadership still lacks both the vision and courage to dismount."