Everything Was Going Well, And All Of A Sudden — Bingo
A report from the Orange County Register. "It was a weaker-than-average early winter for Southern California home prices. December and January are known for price dips as house hunters shy from closing on a home purchase around the holidays. My trusty spreadsheet tells me Southern California homes have averaged 2.2% declines during these two months since 1988. And historically speaking, that’s the largest price drop buyers see in a typical year. This time around, the median selling price across the six-county region fell by a combined 4.6% during December and January to $705,000, according to CoreLogic, which tracks closed sales for all residences. It also was the largest two-month decline in the past 12 years and the fifth-biggest dip for any December-January period dating to 1988."
"San Bernardino: The biggest drop – a 7.9% decline from a record high set in November, vs. 3.3% average dip. San Diego: 5.6% decline vs. 2% average dip. Median of $802,500 is 6% off record $850,000 from July 2023. Los Angeles: 4.8% decline vs. 1.8% average dip. Median of $800,000 – 7% off record $860,000 from April 2022. Ventura: 3.6% decline from a record high set in November vs. 2% average dip. Median of $799,000 is off from a record $828,500. Orange: 3.2% decline from a record high set in November vs. 1.9% average dip. Median of $1.065 million was off from record $1.1 million."
From KOLD. "An Arizona couple say they are without a permanent place to live after the contractors they hired to construct their dream home allegedly took their money and ran. Elizabeth Matthews and her husband are suing brothers Andrew and Gabriel Carranza for fraud. The couple said they thought they were building the home of their dreams, but instead, they were left with two unfinished houses and are hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hole. 'We are senior citizens, and we have been waiting our whole life to do this project,' Matthews told KOLD. 'We have the right to know where did our money go. It didn’t go to our project.'"
"The couple entered a contract with Settlers West Home Builder LLC in May 2022 to construct a custom home off North First Avenue in the Catalina Foothills, according to an ongoing lawsuit. Settlers West, which was run by the Carranza brothers, was a licensed contracting company at the time, according to the Arizona Registrar of Contractors. The price tag for the main home was more than $1 million, with most of the money coming from a bank loan. Matthews says just one month after signing the contract, they paid the brothers more than $150,000 in deposits. 'That money was given to them by check, and they cashed that check but didn’t deliver a lot of things. They still haven’t 18 months after that,' Matthews said. According to the ongoing lawsuit, it will cost the couple at least another $400,000 to complete both homes. That’s if they can find a contractor willing to take on the project with so many loose ends. Right now, the couple are living in a rental home."
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "Over 96% of Dallas renters are keeping up with their monthly rent payments, according to RealPage. Renters should expect some relief this year as many regions battle with oversupply. The U.S. saw a record number of apartments completed in 2023, accounting for the largest number of new apartment units added in 36 years, RealPage previously reported. The abundance of new apartments is likely to force landlords to temper rent hikes to stay competitive and attractive as population gains play catchup with the new stock. Trammell Crow Residential managing director of multifamily Megan Smith told The Dallas Morning News last month that 2024 and even 2025 may see softening among rents in some Dallas-Fort Worth submarkets due to the abundance of supply and what’s in the pipeline."
"'Coming out of 2025 and into 2026, we’ll start to see [multifamily] stabilizing, and there’s going to be a wave of rent growth that we’re capturing going into 2026 and 2027 due to the supply coming online. For now, you’re seeing negative to minimal rent growth,' Smith said."
From Bloomberg. "The mood was practically giddy when the heads of two regional banks hosted a town hall in the spring of 2021. The industry’s long drought in mergers was ending, and two lenders below the public’s radar, New York Community Bancorp and Flagstar, were poised to become more formidable by joining forces. Three years later, the lender known for catering to New York City landlords is in serious trouble. Last week, it revealed major weaknesses in its ability to monitor risks and replaced Thomas Cangemi as CEO with the second fiddle at that town hall, Flagstar’s Sandro DiNello. Investors are worried the new boss will set aside even more money to cover souring loans, on top of a $552 million hit that shocked the market in January. Credit raters have slashed it to junk and its shares have cratered 73% this year."
"Back-to-back acquisitions, first Flagstar and then parts of Signature Bank, almost doubled the firm's size and set it on a collision course with new rules for banks holding more than $100 billion of assets. The crash came this year. Amid regulatory pressure, NYCB bolstered reserves and shareholders unloaded its stock. NYCB was a stock-market darling before it announced plans in late January to horde cash. 'Everything was going well, and all of a sudden — bingo — you have a day like that,' said Michael Manzulli, once the chairman of the bank’s board. 'And you go: ‘Wow.’”
The Toronto Star in Canada. "Toronto detached home prices have fallen more than any other type of housing in the city since the February 2022 peak — but real estate observers say there's a resurgence coming for the not-so-humble dream home. Detached homes in Toronto saw demand and prices fall significantly in February this year from the same month two years ago, a report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reveals. Toronto's detached home market saw a strong rise between February 2020 and February 2022, with a 9.8 per cent increase in sales and a nearly 40 per cent hike in the average price to just over $2 million. But between February 2022 and 2024, both fell significantly: sales decreased by 27.7 per cent, while the average price dropped 20 per cent."
The Evening Standard in the UK. "London’s leading estate agency Foxtons Group has benefited from rising rental prices boosting lettings, but said house sales slumped by a quarter last year as mortgage costs climbed. The business also revealed its yearly profit tumbled by a third, which it said was due to one-off costs including closing some of its branches. The number of house sales in London dropped by 22% last year, compared with 2022. 'In fact, transaction volumes were at some of the lowest levels since 2008 and 2020, years impacted by the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 market shutdown respectively,' Foxtons said."
From Reuters. "The Swiss National Bank posted an annual loss of 3.2 billion Swiss francs ($3.62 billion) for 2023, it said on Monday, as a switch to positive interest rates cost it dearly and meant it couldn't pay a dividend for a second straight year. The SNB became the latest central bank to report losses as higher interest rates imposed to fight inflation force them to pay billions to commercial lenders. The German central bank last month said it lost 21.6 billion euros last year, wiping out nearly all of its provisions, while its Dutch counterpart lost 3.5 billion euros."
Star Weekly in Australia. "Failed home builder Apex Homes received a $100,000 payment from a customer just days before a winding up order was lodged against it over unpaid debts. The customer, who wishes to remain anonymous, claims their financial advisor authorised the payment to Apex three weeks ago, after the company signed a statutory declaration that it was debt free. 'They (Apex) advise that they didn’t owe anyone any money and that’s why finance released the money ($100,000) to them,' the customer said."
"Just days later, on February 15, Aerolink Pty Ltd lodged a winding up order against Apex over debts of $46,000. On Wednesday the Victoria Supreme Court ordered the North Melbourne based builder with projects in Wyndham, Geelong and Melbourne’s north, into liquidation. A further four creditors, including the State Revenue Officer, had joined Aerolink in seeking to have Apex Homes wound up over more than $200,000 in unpaid debts. The anonymous customer, who was seeking to build a home in Geelong with her husband, said they don’t know what to do next. 'I didn’t sleep last night. It’s so stressful,” she said the day after Judicial Registrar Claire Gitsham ordered the company into liquidation."
"Co-owner of Point Cook business, Melbourne Wide Demolition, Moira Linton, was awaiting payment of $21,450 from Apex for demolition work when the winding up against the company was lodged. She said the fact Apex didn’t fight the liquidation or even attend the hearing, added insult to injury. Moira Linton said she had lodged her company’s debt with the liquidator and even though this process would cost her more money, she would pursue it regardless. 'For me, it’s on principle,' said Ms Linton. 'Yes I’ve absorbed the hit, but I still want to go after those funds, not for us to get the money, but to actually make a point and try and help those that haven’t got their money back.'"
The Telegraph. "The decision by both Taylor Swift and Coldplay to skip Hong Kong on their 2024 world tours has sparked soul searching in the city, with the Hong Kong Free Press claiming musical acts are 'shunning' the region. The snub is emblematic of a broader shift: Western banks, their expat workers and foreign capital are all taking flight from Hong Kong as Beijing exerts an increasingly authoritarian grip on the region. Beijing’s tightening grip, and the associated chilling of free speech and capitalism in the region, is coming at a cost."
"Hong Kong’s financial secretary Paul Chan announced the first increase in income tax in the region in 20 years on Wednesday, as authorities scramble to fill a growing budget blackhole. In a surprise move, a new top tax rate of 16pc for earnings above HK$5m (£500,000) will be launched from April. Once a major global, free market hub, Hong Kong is slowly turning its back on Western capitalism and its economy is paying the price. 'The peak position Hong Kong occupied over the past two decades, it has ended,' says Max Zenglein, chief economist at Germany’s Mercator Institute for China Studies."
"The turning point was 2020, when China forced through a new national security law that massively reduced Hong Kong’s autonomy and criminalised protesters who called for democracy and freedom of speech. Hong Kong’s hardline pandemic response drove many expats away. '2022 was awful,' says real estate consultant Jonathan Benarr, who moved to Hong Kong in 2014. 'The Covid restrictions and quarantine requirements just stifled life, so there was quite the exodus. Lots of expats left.' The economy and Hong Kong’s international status have not recovered from the twin blows. 'Even the Chinese don’t consider Hong Kong the safe haven it once was,' Benarr said. He left in February 2022 and has no intention of coming back. 'It’s not the same city,' he says. 'The magic of the place has been severely impacted.'"