Honestly, It's Making Me A Little Nervous
A report from the Herald Tribune in Florida. "The number of single-family homes for sale in Sarasota and Manatee counties has surpassed the high point prior to the buyer-induced frenzy that occurred after the COVID pandemic set the real estate market on fire across the country. At the end of 2021 just 346 condos were listed for sale in the two-county area. Near the end of the first quarter of 2024, 2,808 condo properties are included in the local multiple listing service — an even larger percentage increase than in the single-family market. Gena Faso listed her condo property on Siesta Key for sale by owner about three months ago. Her condo fees have doubled since she purchased the property in August 2017 and the property taxes have also gone up significantly."
"When she put her property up for sale at the beginning of the year, she did get an offer almost immediately, but they pulled out of the deal almost as fast. She still fields about five calls a week about the property, but hasn't had any other serious offers. 'They were concerned about the future of Florida,' she said of the potential buyers. 'Honestly, it's making me a little nervous.'"
The Washington Post. "More than $900 billion in loans backing office buildings, retail centers, hotels, warehouses and more will come due this year — and analysts who track commercial real estate are already worried that this slice of the economy could soon threaten regional banks and municipal finances. For its part, the Fed is looking at the potential for large commercial real estate losses as a financial stability risk. The central bank is also using a marked drop in commercial real estate prices as part of its regular test of the banking system’s resilience to major shocks and stressors."
"'We have identified the banks that have high commercial real estate concentrations, particularly office and retail and other ones that have been affected a lot,' Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell told lawmakers earlier this month. 'This is a problem that we’ll be working on for years more, I’m sure. There will be bank failures, but not the big banks.'"
The Real Deal. "Multifamily construction starts in the Alamo City amounted to just 21 in the first quarter, marking its lowest figure since 2010, the San Antonio Business Journal reported, citing data from CoStar Group. This stagnation follows a period of rampant multifamily development post-pandemic. In the first quarter of last year alone, developers started construction on nearly 4,000 units, reaching an all-time high in San Antonio. However, the surge in supply has collided with weakened demand, leading to substantial declines. 'Rent growth is negative, so why would you want to build another apartment in San Antonio?' asked Daniel Khalil, a Texas market analyst with CoStar."
Houston Agent Magazine in Texas. "Real estate prices, both for owners and renters, are legendarily high in places like New York and Los Angeles, and you might think the same goes for the city of Houston — but that’s actually not the case. According to recent data, Houston’s median rent has been dropping for the past few years, with the occasional spike in price. The market took a major dip in March of 2023, and slowly returned to the below-average median over the course of the year. Why is this happening? It’s primarily a supply-and-demand issue. Houston has been undergoing a major surge in housing and apartment construction, meaning supply is copious. New residential developments mean a greater array of choices for prospective renters, and landlords must lower their rates to stay competitive."
WKRN in Tennessee. "It’s a great time to be looking for an apartment in Nashville. According to Zillow, nearly half the apartments in Music City are offering concessions, with some even offering a few months of free rent. Joel Sanders, CEO of Apartment Insiders is seeing apartments hungry to get renters in the door. 'The concessions we are seeing in Nashville usually range anywhere from about six weeks free to three months free, depending on the apartment community, and then sometimes they will ask someone to sign a longer lease term beyond 12 months to kind of make up for those free months of concessions that are being offered,' Sanders said."
The Real Deal on Pennsylvania. "Landlords of new properties are offering a variety of concessions to potential tenants across the city, the Philadelphia Business Journal reported. Building owners are being forced to turn to creative incentives, as supply and demand in the market fall out of whack. The oversupply of new apartment buildings is leading landlords to hand out free rent — sometimes for multiple months — Ring doorbells and gift cards, sometimes adding up to $1,000. The situation is particularly acute in Fishtown, a neighborhood booming with developments. 'Eventually what happens is [the owners will] give three, four months away free and people will choose to live there and they’ll just surf from building to building,' Alterra Property Group managing partner Leo Addimando said at a recent panel discussion."
Bisnow on California. "Los Angeles, and especially Downtown, has a track record of success with adaptive reuse. But today's market lacks some crucial pieces that helped revitalize the central business district in the early 2000s. Those missing pieces are among the factors preventing developers from converting the swaths of downtown office buildings that stand empty today. Without more incentives, prices need to fall even further than they already have, to 'pennies on the dollar,' said Arthroto President Doug Hayden. 'Understand that there aren’t going to be 10 bidders [for these assets]. You're gonna have to beg someone, even if the economics work, to step up and do this work,' said Strategic Realty Holdings CEO Eddie Lorin."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Gas Company Tower, a prominent office skyscraper in downtown Los Angeles, faces foreclosure as landlords continue to struggle to keep tenants in their buildings. A notice of trustee’s sale for the high-rise on Bunker Hill was filed March 21 with the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk, setting the stage for a foreclosure sale as soon as 90 days after the filing. Last year, the owner of the Gas Company Tower, an affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., defaulted on its debt. The building has roughly $465 million in loans, including $350 million in commercial mortgage-backed securities and two mezzanine mortgages for $65 million and $50 million."
"The price for office space in downtown Los Angeles is averaging about $141 a square foot, according to a note Wednesday released by Barclays. A nearby Brookfield tower at 777 S. Figueroa St. is being sold for about $145 million, roughly 50% less than the outstanding debt on the property. The Gas Company Tower was appraised in 2020 at $632 million but is now worth closer to $200 million, based on the $141-per-square-foot price cited by Barclays."
Mansion Global. "An 'epidemic' of car thefts in Toronto is making garages an even more prized commodity—and some luxury home buyers are avoiding neighborhoods where secure parking is scarce, according to local agents. A car was stolen every 40 minutes in Canada’s largest city last year, police chief Myron Demkiw told a government meeting earlier this month, with losses totaling nearly C$800 million (US$590 million). There have also been 68 carjackings so far in 2024, the chief said, a 106% increase over the same period last year. In affluent downtown neighborhoods like the Annex, “a lot of homes are more than a century old and were designed without garages or dedicated parking,” said Christopher Bibby, a broker with Re/Max Hallmark/Bibby Group Realty. 'Would a buyer change a home-purchase decision because of a garage? If they’re really concerned about a high-end vehicle, they’ll most likely focus on a neighborhood further uptown with an enclosure for cars.'"
"Adam Brind, an agent with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, echoed that sentiment. 'If someone’s careful about their cars, they’re probably not going to look closer to downtown,' he said. 'If you have three Bentleys, or something like that, you’re going to look in an uptown neighborhood. Do people make decisions based on garages? Absolutely. Some people will pass on even the nicest house if there’s no parking.'"
The Times Colonist in Canada. "B.C. wants a co-founder of the failed cryptocurrency firm QuadrigaCX to explain the source of funds used to obtain cash, gold bars, jewelry and luxury watches. In its third unexplained-wealth order case, the province is targeting more than $600,000 in assets of Michael Patryn, which were seized by the RCMP in 2021 from a safety deposit box in a CIBC branch in Vancouver. The province alleges the cash, gold, jewelry and watches, including Rolexes, are linked to fraud involving QuadrigaCX. Thousands of people who held cryptocurrency are estimated to have lost a total of at least $169 million. The B.C. NDP government introduced measures last year to combat money laundering that include the unexplained-wealth orders. If successful in court, the orders put a reverse onus on a person to explain where money came from to buy their assets in cases where there is a suspicion of a crime."
"'Gold bars may be highly liquid, and flashy luxury goods, such as jewelry and Rolex watches, attract attention, but they are also attracting the attention of police and our government. If they are the proceeds of criminal activity like fraud, drug trafficking or money laundering, we will go after them,' B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth said in a statement."
From Metro in the UK. "A contractor is accused of skipping off with tens of thousands of pounds for unfinished work at a family’s house. Danielle and Andrew Duffy, who live in a three-bedroom property in Rochdale with their three children, say the ordeal has ‘absolutely destroyed us both financially and mentally.' Danielle said: ‘He has taken every penny that we own from us. We had been saving for five years to help pay for the work to be done. We have had to scrimp and scrape and missed out on holidays to help pay for this. We managed to save £15,000 and then remortgaged the house for the remainder. We have not lived in our house for over a year now. Fortunately, my mother-in-law let us have her home, while she lived elsewhere but it was only supposed to be for a maximum of 16 weeks. She has been brilliant but, obviously, wants to move back home. It has been a nightmare for everyone.’"
The Independent in South Africa. "Two unfinished Midlands multi-purpose facilities, built with taxpayers’ money, have been vandalised for years. Residents of Richmond and Mooi River, in the Midlands, have given up hope they will ever be able to use the multimillion-rand community centres which have turned into white elephants. A resident of Ndaleni village in Richmond said the community had lost hope that the facility would ever be opened. 'It is clear that this thing was left uncompleted because they embezzled money,' he said, asking that his name be withheld. The face-brick facility in Richmond is surrounded by overgrown grass. Those who have been inside say it is falling apart because of years of neglect."
Pro Pakistani. "The inflation-adjusted real estate prices in the commercial capital of Pakistan, Karachi witnessed a downward trend in the last five years, as compared to different cities in the region, according to a real study carried out by House Building Finance Corporation (HBFC). Over the past year, Karachi experienced the steepest decline in property prices among its Asian peers, with a 15 percent drop, while Mumbai witnessed a relatively modest decrease of 3 percent, the report stated. The dilapidated infrastructure, lack of basic amenities, and poor civic services are also attributed to be other reasons behind the lack of investment trend and downward in the prices. The imposition of taxes on the sale and purchase of the property further affected property transactions across the country, including Karachi even in posh localities."
From ABC News. "In 1995, at the age of 30, Jochem Van Der Kwast had the great Australian dream in his grasp. 'It was still the quarter acre lot. The Hills hoist, that kind of paradigm,' he says. Jochem worked a few days a week selling kitchens, making around $70,000 a year, and in 1995 it was enough to support his wife, two kids, and a mortgage on a home on the NSW Central Coast. 'It had a steep driveway, that explained why we got it for $196,000, but it was a four-bedroom brick house with spectacular views,' he reflects. 'Nothing really weighed on me, it felt easy.'"
"When Jochem’s daughter Clementine Van Der Kwast looks through her family photos, it feels bittersweet. 'I wish I could afford to live the life my parents did.' The 33-year-old Newcastle academic earns an above-average income and thought she would be more financially secure by now. 'I would love to have a child, but I don’t think I could do it as one person with the costs of childcare and everything … which is quite sad,' she says. Clementine doesn’t think she’s alone in feeling like everything is on hold. 'The Australian dream is over. I think that’s symbolic of a past time. I don’t think the world’s been like that since 2001.'"
"Today’s 30-34 year-olds are the first generation in more than 47 years where most people don’t own a house. In the 1990s, recession pushed interest rates to 17 per cent. Despite the steep repayments, most 30-somethings were able to purchase a home. When it comes to housing affordability, Greg Jericho, chief economist at the Australia Institute, says today’s cohort has it worse than those in recession because property costs have surged past incomes. 'The reality is that the cost of the loans was much smaller, because house prices were much lower, but also relative to what they were earning, it was much lower,' Mr Jericho says. 'It’s not about comparing interest rate with interest rate.'"