A report from Bisnow. "Pressure continues to build on the owners of South Florida’s aging condos as financial pressures tighten in the wake of the reserve deadline. The market is now flooded with aging units. There were 19,000 active condo listings in South Florida at the end of last year, 86% of which are condos 30 years or older, according to an ISGWorld report. 'That inventory just keeps growing every single month in MLS because the people that own those units just want to get out,' ISGWorld CEO Craig Studnicky said. 'The problem is that nobody wants to buy them, and if there are a few people that want to buy them, there certainly are no mortgage lenders that want to lend. So, that inventory is almost useless for us at the moment.' At the same time, the value of older condos is plummeting. The average sale price for older condos dropped 21% last year from 2023, significantly fueled by the special assessments required by the new law, according to an October study by ISG World."

"Peter Zalewski, founder of Miami-based real estate consultancy firm Condo Vultures, refers to this era as the Florida condo association 'financial cliff.' 'They're forcing the foreclosure. They're forcing the short sales. Those people who still remain in the building have to suddenly pay more to keep the building afloat. Services get cut, and it turns into a doom loop,' Zalewski said. 'Think of a plane that's going down, like back in the old school with a propeller. They're kind of circling before they crash.' Zalewski told Florida Daily that older condos are expected to drop in value by 38%, from $379 per SF to $231 per SF, in the next few years."

From Slate. "Dear Pay Dirt, I wrote in this summer asking for advice about whether to purchase a house ahead of the election since my partner and I are both federal employees. Well, we did close on a house in September and moved into our new home in November. Sadly, our biggest fears have come to pass and my partner is being asked to move back to Washington, D.C. to comply with the Republican administration’s return to office mandate. Due to my individual employment circumstances, I can actually remain remote for the time being (subject to change), but he is required to be back by February 26. Are there any options we haven’t thought of? I’m so heartsick and devastated right now I’m not sure I’m thinking clearly."

"We could sell our house after only having owned it for three-and-a-half months. This is also a terrible option because even assuming we could find a buyer willing to pay what we paid for the house, we would likely lose most or all of the downpayment that took us a decade to save (we put 10 percent down) on agent fees, staging, closing costs, etc. I’m truly not sure if I would ever emotionally recover from taking such a hit.—Born to Lose Apparently. Dear Born to Lose Apparently, There’s no home run that I can see. With some careful planning and smart marketing, you might be able to break even if you sell. The thing is, I’m leaning toward renting rather than selling at the moment. You and your spouse might move back to Washington, only to get fired anyway. Then, you’ll be sorry you didn’t keep your forever house, and will have doubled down on your losses by paying for double moves."

NPR on California. "In a nearly empty rental house in East Los Angeles County, Sogol Moshfegh was struggling last week to assemble an IKEA bunk bed for her two young boys. The family lost their home in the Altadena Fire and had been staying with Moshfegh's parents. Their insurance will pay for rebuilding the home, though likely only half the cost. That means all the equity they'd built up is gone. Their limited insurance means they'd have to take out another large loan, while still paying the mortgage on their destroyed home, plus years of rent in temporary places. 'I'm trying to be really optimistic about it, but there's so much of me that's like, this is going to bankrupt us,' she said. 'And I don't want that to happen.'"

CNBC on California. "Julia Pollak's home is considered a 'partial' loss. Her house, in the Marquez Knolls part of the Pacific Palisades, is damaged but still standing — a white home now surrounded by 'wasteland,' she said. Pollak and her husband bought their home in 2019 for about $2.75 million. Its value had grown to about $3.8 million before the wildfires, according to a Redfin estimate — the family's biggest financial asset. Now, they likely can't sell or rent it for anything close to pre-fire value, Pollak said. 'Ideally, we'd keep it and enjoy it in five to 10 years when it blossoms again,' Pollak said. 'But the carrying costs are so high that we can't pay the mortgage without living there and also pay for comparable accommodation elsewhere.'"

ABC 15 in Arizona. "Sedona has declared a housing shortage emergency and a resolution passed by the City Council says the problem is getting worse because of short-term rentals (STRs). 'There's no neighbors, there's no activity. It's all just empty houses waiting for the next, you know, group of tourists to come in,' Ann Kelley, a Sedona homeowner, said while driving around one neighborhood speckled with short-term rental properties. When Kelley bought her home, she says it was located in a residential zone that prohibited homeowners from renting out their property for fewer than 30 days. 'Now I live in a timeshare,' Kelley said. 'Every house around us that's gone on the market has become a short-term rental.'"

"In 2024, 16% of Sedona’s entire housing stock was STRs. That jumped another 2% in one year, with vacation rentals now accounting for 18% of the housing stock. The city tracked that data through permits, which also shows that 66% of STR owners do not live in Sedona. In some neighborhoods, the STR numbers even approach 40%. 'I believe in property rights. What about my property rights?' Kelley said. 'You're worrying about the 20% and ignoring the 80%. I have the right to live in a neighborhood with friends and community, and you've taken that away.'"

From Bisnow. "One of New York City’s largest multifamily owners, months after defaulting on a CMBS loan backed by dozens of apartment buildings, is now in jeopardy of losing the properties. A&E Real Estate Holdings was hit with a preforeclosure lawsuit over a $506.3M loan backed by a 31-property portfolio that includes the massive Harlem housing complex Riverton Square. The portfolio covers 53 buildings throughout Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx and totals more than 3,500 housing units, according to a 2021 analysis of the loan by ratings agency Morningstar."

"Owners of rent-stabilized units have struggled to refinance in NYC in recent years. Owners have faced a one-two punch in the form of New York state’s 2019 tenant protection laws, which made the asset class unappealing to investors because of strict limitations of rental increases. In the meantime, rent-stabilized owners have also dealt with rising costs for maintenance, insurance and mortgages. 'The rent-regulated space is in a doom loop,' Marcus & Millichap broker Shaun Riney told Bisnow last month. 'It takes a long time to sink the Titanic, but the Titanic is sinking.'"

Insauga in Canada. "The fallout from the false real estate bubble of 2022 continues to bite real estate speculators, with one home in north Oshawa selling last week for a massive $510,000 loss less than three years after it was purchased. The home on Meadow Street in Oshawa’s booming north end Kedron neighbourhood sold in March 2021 for $1,053,000 and was flipped 11 months later for $1,560,000. The winning bid – $361,000 over asking – resulted in a tidy profit of $553,000 for the seller. The new buyer, however, didn’t fare as well, listing the 4-plus 2 bedroom, two-storey house for $1,274,990 on November 30, 2023 and dropping the price three times late last year before finally selling on January 31 for $1,050,000 – a loss of more than half a million in under three years."

Blog TO in Canada. "The Toronto real estate market had a rough year last year with generally weak sales, houses sitting on the market for way longer than expected, and even houses selling below asking or sometimes at staggering losses. And while the schadenfreude for Toronto homeowners going through it is delicious to many, there are some cases where it's actually just kinda sad. Take 22 Shannon St., a beautifully renovated five-bedroom, five-bathroom home right in the heart of Trinity Bellwoods. Just a few years ago, this impeccably designed house with the trendy white oak herringbone floors and soaring 10-foot ceilings would have been snapped up in under a week and likely for more than asking.But now, it's been re-listed a whopping 10 times."

"In April 2023, the home was first listed for $5,125,000. But after a month on the market, they dropped the price to $4,685,000, and then it sat for 122 days with no bites. It then proceeded to be listed again and again… and again. Now, 22 Shannon St. is listed for $3,995,000, a $1.13 million price drop. And that kind of price cut is undoubtedly eating into any kind of return on investment the owners were expecting. They purchased the house in 2020 for $1.9 million and, in the year since, did an extensive renovation. But there's some solace in knowing that they aren't the only ones on the street that might not get their money out. Just last year, 61 Shannon St. took a massive loss when it was sold for only $2.8 million after it was initially listed for $5,398,880 in January 2023. It's not just Shannon St., though; the entire Trinity Bellwoods neighbourhood seems to be on the decline, as house prices dropped 40 percent from 2023 to 2024."

Radio New Zealand. "Last year was a tough year for the New Zealand economy. So tough, in fact, that HSBC estimates it had the biggest drop in gross domestic product in the developed world. A big part of the equation is the government's response to Covid-19. Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub says the response was large by international standards. 'We had a lot more stimulus in the Covid years and we have had a lot more restriction that followed both from monetary policy and fiscal policy. The government injected as hell of a lot of money through the Covid years then there has been a really big pull back. [Covid spending] was massive. It was free money going into business accounts, business profits spiked during the Covid years. We have never had more profitable businesses than we did during the lockdowns. As a result, we didn't have the same kind of job losses and that kind of thing, it was a lot of money. Interest rates fell very sharply and the loosening of the lending rules was quite significant.'"

"Eaqub said the monetary policy was still tight. 'The Reserve Bank came out last week with Paul Conway's speech saying neutral is 2.5 percent or 3 percent [for the OCR] so they are still leaning against the economy even when it's on its knees. These guys are sadistic. They're like 'we're going to crush this economy it's the only way we know how to tackle inflation.' He said that was acceptable as the only tool available to the Reserve Bank but it showed the mistake of the 'sugar rush' of the Covid years that sent money into the property market. 'The immigration boost that helped us didn't come with an overall lift in the standard of living… there were more people rather than people being better off. Now there's been a giant downturn in the housing market, a construction slump and people are feeling poorer.'"

The Philippines Star. "The Metro Manila property scene has been buzzing with reports of a significant amount of unsold residential units as well as high vacancy rates in the office market. One can’t help but wonder: is a real estate bubble happening or forming? 'Around 70,000 unsold residential inventory, mostly condominium units, in Metro Manila can really scare people and can fan the flames of a possible residential real estate bubble. Computationally, this will take around six years to sell,' Lobien Realty Group Inc. CEO Sheila Lobien told The Star. 'However, the country’s residential real estate fundamentals are strong enough to ward off any talk of a residential real estate bubble in Metro Manila. Lobien Realty Group sees there is no or very nil possibility of a residential real estate bubble in Metro Manila,' she added."

"For his part, Colliers Philippines director for research Joey Roi Bondoc said some correction in the secondary market is being seen with some unit owners offering pasalo (sacrifice) sale. 'To reignite demand, developers are offering attractive move-in promos, including paying only 2.5 percent of TCP (total contract price) to allow buyers to transfer to RFO (ready for occupancy) units,' Bondoc said. He added that some developers are going the extra mile, even offering no down payment to buyers as long as these investors secure approval from banks for financing. With the sizable unsold condominium inventory in Metro Manila, Bondoc highlighted that they do not see a real estate bubble happening or forming, emphasizing that developers are turning off the supply tap in Metro Manila and launching projects outside of the capital region."

"Cushman & Wakefield director for research, consultancy and advisory services Claro Cordero, Jr. noted that one reason for excess condominium inventory in Metro Manila is a mismatch in what the market is selling and what buyers are looking for. 'The disparity between high-end segments and mid-end segments has become more pronounced now more than ever. And the last time we’ve seen this was during the Asian Financial Crisis,' Cordero said. 'If you look at the characteristics of the developments, I think one of the main reasons for the depressed market conditions is really a supply-demand mismatch.' He emphasized that prior to the 2000s, the studio-type units were sized at about 50 to 60 square meters (sqm), more than double the size of studio units today which are typically less than 25 sqm. 'But the market has shifted and they wanted bigger configurations and what we have in the market now are all these less than 25 sqm for studio type. So the ones who are buying, cannot see these types of units in the market,' Cordero said, adding that this is why the excess inventory is still relatively untouched or not moving."