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It Was The Place To Buy, Until It Wasn’t

A report from the Reno/Sparks Gazette in Nevada. “‘If you’re going fishing for a buyer or waiting for someone to stop by the house and make an offer way over market price, those days are gone,’ said Gary MacDonald, president of the Reno/Sparks Association of Realtors.”

From WKRN on Tennessee. “A less chaotic housing market means exhausted buyers can finally breathe a breath of fresh air. ‘There’s still a lot of competition,’ said Amanda Peterson — realtor with the Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage. ‘Fortunately, a few months ago, it was going way over list price, lots of cash buyers. Now, I’ve seen people with loans be able to get offers through and be able to negotiate somewhat here and there.'”

The Washingtonian. “The Washington housing market has been nuts, with prices breaking records, listings attracting dozens of bids, and buyers routinely paying six-figures over asking. But according to Bright MLS, things appear to have turned a corner, with the real-estate frenzy finally settling down. The trend began over the summer, with the area’s prices and number of sales dropping. Compared to August, the number of new listings spiked 15 percent last month.”

The Antelope Valley Press. “California’s famously high real estate prices saw a spike earlier this year, but that trend appears to be cooling now, Keny Terracciano of RE/MAX All Pro said. ‘It just can’t keep this pace too much longer,’ he said. In Palmdale, as of August, the median home price was $497,000, while in Lancaster it was $450,000, he said.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “A planned foreclosure auction of the largest modern home in the country has been delayed after billionaire lender Don Hankey was accused of maneuvering to take control of the troubled Bel-Air project and leave other debt holders out in the cold. John Tedford, a partner at law firm Danning Gill in Los Angeles, who is not involved in the dispute involving The One, said that foreclosure sales typically leave little to nothing for junior lienholders and one possibly requiring a cash bid of $100 million or more could be particularly challenging. ‘What sort of Brinks truck is going to pull up with a briefcase full of cashier’s checks for over 100 million bucks?’ he quipped.”

The New York Post. “An 84-year-old man gunned down his real estate agent in a murder-suicide — because he was upset over the Virginia home he’d just bought sight unseen, authorities said. Albert Baglione fatally shot realtor Soren Arn-Oelschlegel, 41, Friday night in the Portsmouth home the octogenarian had just bought, then called 911 and admitted, ‘I shot my realtor,’ WAVY reported. Later, authorities heard a gunshot and discovered both men’s bodies, police said.”

“A neighbor said Baglione had only moved into the residence one day earlier. ‘He bought the house sight unseen from Alabama, moved in here Thursday and called a real estate agent Friday to return the house,’ the neighbor told WTKR.”

From CNBC. “Foreclosure starts jumped 32% in the third quarter of this year from the second quarter and were 67% higher than the third quarter of 2020. While the increases in foreclosures are dramatic, they are coming off extreme lows that were created by the forbearance programs. The number of active forbearance plans fell by 177,000, led by an 84,000-plan drop among FHA/VA loans. As of Oct. 5, nearly 1.4 million borrowers remained in pandemic-related forbearance plans, representing 2.6% of all active mortgages.”

From USA Today on Florida. “It was the first swanky high-rise condo in the tiny town, and it solidified the neighborhood as a gathering place for the rich and famous. For its residents – from millionaire cocaine smugglers to family vacationers – it was all about landing their little slice of paradise. ‘The era we’re talking about is when Miami suddenly came out of the ashes. So, how do you rush to fulfill the demand? You cut corners. You attached roofs with paper clips. You bribe the inspectors,’ said Jorge Valdes, who was not involved in Champlain South, but helped build dozens of homes, apartment complexes, and high rises in the Miami region as a chief money launderer for the Medellin Cartel.”

“In 1991, Rosello, a ‘cocaine cowboy,’ said he was weeks away from buying the fifth-floor, two-bedroom condo he was renting under an alias in Champlain South. Those plans changed when authorities indicted him for his role in Miami’s biggest cocaine ring. ‘Who knows? If I would have bought it, my son, ‘little Peter,’ could have been the one living there at the time of the collapse,’ he said. ‘But at the end, the building fell, just like our once cocaine empire.'”

“In 2001, Steve Rosenthal jumped at buying a two-bedroom unit with a view of the bay. ‘It was a bargain. It was the place to buy, well, until it wasn’t,’ said Rosenthal, who for the span of almost 20 years witnessed puddles appear in the parking garage during the full moon and high tide, as well as cracks snaking across balcony floors.”

The Daily Hive on Canada. “You don’t often hear about Vancouver real estate going on sale, but one of Shaughnessy’s most eye-catching properties is practically $10 million off. In February 2019, Daily Hive Urbanized reported that this mansion was listed for a staggering $44 million. Now, the new realtor has listed 1233 Tecumseh Avenue on the market for $33,990,000.”

The Standard on Kenya. “Land and property prices in Nairobi and its environs are self-correcting due to market forces with a new report revealing a drop of up to 27 per cent. It notes that prices in Nairobi’s satellite towns have dipped since quarter four of 2019. ‘Could this represent the early signs of a deeper correction in high-end property prices?’ posed the report.”

“‘Notably, Quarter One (Q1) of 2021 land prices in Runda were 27 per cent below their recent peaks in Q4 of 2017,’ reads the report in part. ‘In the middle-income segment, current land prices are also lower than their peak levels over the past four years, but not by as much as the high-end segment.'”

From Business Insider. “One-fifth of the homes in China – at least 65 million units – are empty. Li Gan is a professor of economics at Texas A&M University and the director of the Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance at Chengdu’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. He’s also considered one of the top experts on China’s housing market. When I asked him how many ghost towns there were in China, he didn’t have an answer. ‘I don’t know if there’s any definition of ‘ghost town,’ he said. ‘So I don’t know if there’s any number.'”

“Demand for units, however – and this is where the mismatch comes into play – has been affected by a series of factors, said Bernard Aw, an economist overseeing Asia Pacific for Coface. Among these factors is the increasing unaffordability of homes, an aging population, and slowing population growth. Aw pointed to China’s 2020 census, which recorded the slowest population growth since the 1970s. ‘They built an oversupply, and then they sold it,’ Gan said. ‘And that’s why you see the vacancies.'”

“When I asked Gan whether this was the scenario now unfolding in China, he said it wasn’t – but not because there aren’t cracks in the market. Instead, the government is making it so difficult to complete a sale that it’s dissuading homeowners from selling, Gan said. ‘China can stop a transaction. The government can change the number of years you have to own a home. Or if prices are too low, the government won’t give you a certificate of sale,’ Gan said. ‘That is what’s happening now.'”

“‘You won’t see the price drop substantially, but you will see the transaction volume drop massively,’ he added. ‘They’ll stop the sale. By doing that, they can prevent the look of a massive price drop. They can prevent the crash.’ This very move – suppressing home sales – stands to hurt those who need to sell their homes to access cash, Gan said. ‘Real estate is a massive chunk of people’s wealth,’ he said. ‘If they need that wealth for education, or health problems, or retirement, the liquidity sellers will suffer.'”

This Post Has 78 Comments
  1. ‘he was upset over the Virginia home he’d just bought sight unseen’

    Now that’s some buyers remorse right there.

      1. Albert Baglione fatally shot realtor Soren Arn-Oelschlegel, 41, Friday night in the Portsmouth home the octogenarian had just bought,

        Who is it the regular that usually says “… and every closing is a crime scene”?

    1. I shouldn’t joke about this, but Realtors(tm) are complicit in harming so many people’s lives that it is hard to resist.

      (Bob Marley singing)
      I shot the Realtor(TM)
      …but I did not shoot the title clerk
      I shot the Realtor(TM)
      …but I did not shoot the escrow ‘gent

      Deep down I think many Realtors(tm) hate each other, so there is that.

      1. That man’s a hero. At 84 I hope I have to balls to take a realtor/politician/journalist/leech out with me!

  2. ‘So, how do you rush to fulfill the demand? You cut corners. You attached roofs with paper clips. You bribe the inspectors’

    This is worth reading in full. The South Florida airbox market is even flimsier than I thought, which was pretty bleak as it was.

    1. Wow this report is graphic with colorful detail.
      They bought the bling.
      The massive oversights, bereft incompetence, blissful denial, abject corruption, kaleidoscope of justifications, mis focused priorities … a litany of what not to do.

  3. ‘Real estate is a massive chunk of people’s wealth…If they need that wealth for education, or health problems, or retirement, the liquidity sellers will suffer’

    If they need that “wealth” they’re fooked!

  4. While the increases in foreclosures are dramatic, they are coming off extreme lows’

    It’s from a low base…

    ‘The number of active forbearance plans fell by 177,000, led by an 84,000-plan drop among FHA/VA loans’

    What Diane doesn’t mention is, there are many thousands of FB’s out of rope – every day.

  5. ‘If you’re going fishing for a buyer or waiting for someone to stop by the house and make an offer way over market price, those days are gone’

    Another sh$thole headed over the falls. Speaking of:

    ‘In Palmdale, as of August, the median home price was $497,000, while in Lancaster it was $450,000’

    I found this article a week ago and haven’t found space to post it. Does anyone know if these shack prices got this high last decade? Cuz I don’t think they did. Unbelievable.

    1. ‘In Palmdale, as of August, the median home price was $497,000, while in Lancaster it was $450,000’

      – No offense to those loan-owners there, but I personally wouldn’t buy a shack in Lancaster/Palmdale at any price, and these prices are ridiculous. Not to mention, but I will, that virtually any place in Clownifornia is now an undesirable place to live thanks to current politics and related leftist policies.

      – “Socialism is Western Civilization in retrograde.” – I said that, because it’s true. How’s that Socialism working out for ya? Enjoy the burn, comrade.

      – CA: Slouching towards Venezuela:

      “Toute nation a le gouvernement qu’elle mérite.” (Every country has the government it deserves.) Lettres et Opuscules Inédits (1851) (letter of August 15, 1811). – Joseph de Maistre

      “The government you elect is the government you deserve.” – Thomas Jefferson

      “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H L Mencken

      “I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.” – Thomas Jefferson

      “Human rights can only be assured among a virtuous people. The general government . . . can never be in danger of degenerating into a monarchy, an oligarchy, an aristocracy, or any despotic or oppressive form so long as there is any virtue in the body of the people.” – George Washington

      “Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” – Winston Churchill

    2. Don’t know the answer to your question.
      My comment is that both of these communities are heavily populated by highly over paid and mostly under educated prison staff — prison towns are a huge industry in CA. Staff at prisons include not only guards but layered and redundant bureaucratic jobs of various descriptions, medical teams, medical records personnel, inmate records, food supplies, and other auxiliary services.

      1. There are lots of government workers living in Palmdale/Lancaster. But they work for City or County down in the L.A. Basin and do the long commute on the 14.

      2. The California Men’s Colony just north of San Luis Obispo has lots of shrink types that drive their Saab or Volvo to work each morning and return home to poke their schnoz in a wine glass.

    3. A report from the Reno/Sparks Gazette in Nevada. “‘If you’re going fishing for a buyer or waiting for someone to stop by the house and make an offer way over market price, those days are gone,’ said Gary MacDonald, president of the Reno/Sparks Association of Realtors.”

      That “those days” ever existed – in Reno to boot – is evidence of a completely broken economic model.

    4. I live in Lancaster, have been here for 21 years. I bought my house for $132,000. No, in the last run up the median prices were around $325,000 if I remember correctly. The prices now are simply insane.

      Lancaster and Palmdale has a curious mix of residents. Lots of people work in Los Angeles and do 50-75 mile commutes. The Air Force has two big bases here–one being Edwards Air Force Base (the Test Flight Center) and the other is Air Force Plant 52 which is where all of the major aircraft companies have facilities. Northrup hires thousands since they are making the B-21, the B-2 replacement. Lockheed Skunk Works and Boeing also are there.

      Los Angeles County and the State have prison facilities here, but they don’t hire many people compared to these other groups.

      Lancaster/Palmdale also has a high population of parolees since lots of poor people live out here since it has historically been the cheapest place to live in Los Angeles County.
      Poor People = High Criminal background population

      What the Antelope Valley lacks are amenities. One very modest mall. No restaurants, not even very many take-out joint. It’s hard even finding a decent Mexican place out here. Strip malls filled with mom and pop stores. Even Starbucks are scarce out here. Forget fine dining and high end or even moderate end retail. No upper crust grocery stores–there are only two Vons Markets out here. No Gelsons or Bristol Farms. Lots of big box discount grocery stores that are horrible places to shop.

      Retail is dominated by Walmart Superstores and Target. If you want to do anything out here you’re out of luck. Compared to wealthier suburbs like Ventura, the Antelope Valley is a wasteland.

      1. “I live in Lancaster, have been here for 21 years.”

        I recall a story years ago about thieves out your way breaking into a family’s home, and among other things they urinated on her saved wedding dress.

  6. ‘foreclosure sales typically leave little to nothing for junior lienholders and one possibly requiring a cash bid of $100 million or more could be particularly challenging. ‘What sort of Brinks truck is going to pull up with a briefcase full of cashier’s checks for over 100 million bucks?’

    Magic 8 ball says fooked John.

  7. “…as a chief money launderer for the Medellin Cartel….”

    So you got ‘yer corporate CEO, COO, CFO, and now the CML , Chief Money launderer.

  8. From WKRN on Tennessee. “A less chaotic housing market means exhausted buyers can finally breathe a breath of fresh air. ‘There’s still a lot of competition,’ said Amanda Peterson — realtor with the Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage. ‘Fortunately, a few months ago, it was going way over list price, lots of cash buyers. Now, I’ve seen people with loans be able to get offers through and be able to negotiate somewhat here and there.’”

    “…and be able to negotiate somewhat here and there.”

    – This market activity and sea change has become mainstream since about mid-year this year.

    – Translation: “Well, we’re not giving it away, but please catch a falling knife and make us an offer.” 🙂

    – Just like the stock “market,” what, exactly, has been normal about the housing “market,” since it became financialized by the Fed, Gov’t. and Wall St. during Housing Bubble 1.0 and as continuing today? (Rhetorical)

    – Housing Bubble 2.0 meets Inflation 1.0. The best of both worlds. /s

    – #FJB / Let’s go, Brandon!

    This (classic) song from the 1970’s seems apropos, since we seem to be reliving the 1970’s all over again…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gb8JZ5wQGKI
    Ball of Confusion! lyrics by the Temptations – Youtube music video
    466,730 views
    Sep 9, 2012

    Ball of Confusion – Lyrics
    The Temptations | 1970

    1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4

    People moving out, people moving in
    Why? Because of the color of their skin
    Run, run, run but you sure can’t hide
    An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth
    Vote for me and I’ll set you free
    Rap on, brother, rap on

    Well, the only person talking about love thy brother is the preacher
    And it seems nobody’s interested in learning but the teacher
    Segregation, determination, demonstration, integration
    Aggravation, humiliation, obligation to my nation

    Ball of confusion
    Oh yeah, that’s what the world is today
    Woo, hey, hey

    The sale of pills are at an all time high
    Young folks walking round with their heads in the sky
    The cities ablaze in the summer time
    And oh, the beat goes on

    Evolution, revolution, gun control, sound of soul
    Shooting rockets to the moon, kids growing up too soon
    Politicians say more taxes will solve everything
    And the band played on

    So, round and around and around we go
    Where the world’s headed, said nobody knows
    Oh, great Googamooga
    Can’t you hear me talking to you?

    Just a ball of confusion
    Oh yeah, that’s what the world is today
    Woo, hey, hey

    Fear in the air, tension everywhere
    Unemployment rising fast, the Beatles new record’s a gas
    And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation
    And the band played on

    Eve of destruction, tax deduction, city inspectors, bill collectors
    Mod clothes in demand, population out of hand, suicide, too many bills
    Hippies moving to the hills, people all over the world are shouting
    ‘End the war’ and the band played on

    Great Googamooga
    Can’t you hear me talking to you?

    It’s a ball of confusion
    That’s what the world is today, hey, hey
    Let me hear ya, let me hear ya, let me hear ya

    Sayin’ ball of confusion
    That’s what the world is today, hey, hey
    Let me hear ya, let me hear ya
    Let me hear ya, let me hear ya, let me hear ya
    Sayin’ ball of confusion

  9. Micro-result set from the list I track on foreclosures.com on my zipcode:

    6/17 – 11
    7/31 – 15
    9/6 – 17
    9/16 – 18
    10/12 – 23

    Mind you, they are tracking “pre-foreclosures” here, but still, these are “in trouble” and I checked some addresses as best I could and did not find them listed.

    So they doubled between June and now, plus I can tell you that number of 23 in my zip, if they hit the market, would boost inventory about 25%.

    You know, I was going to post here about taking a mental health break from all this stuff for awhile, at least until values drop 10% and even MSM can’t hide it . Oh well.

    1. The foreclosure biz is using a new “model.” Some may remember I was actively going to auctions before the CCP virus and lenders had started selling for less than what was owed. This is what happened last decade in places like Phoenix where they would have multiple auctions at the same time all day. Anyhoo, the big plan is to skip the REO broker and go straight to auction.com, etc, there are several. So pretty much all you’ll see is pre-foreclosure. The auction is the foreclosure. Problem is, you probably won’t see inside the shack before you bid! Genius of these clowns, but that’s the plan. So how does the market react? Some sneaky way to get inside? Most will just assume its crater in there and bid way low to protect themselves. Nothing in the foreclosure biz makes sense.

      Under the REO broker arraignment, the lender takes it back at the courthouse steps cuz no one will touch it, and hands it off to the broker. Who initiates repairs, maintenance, etc, and sells on price. Haircuts abound of course. These idiots may be forced back into this method if the online crap fizzles out. Auction.com has a hybrid live/online model that actually works pretty good. But it was around last decade too and was overwhelmed.

      1. I remember the Auction.com website on the last housing bust & followed the listings here in N.CA
        as a hobby. Even attended a live auction or two.
        BUT after seeing so many cancelled / postponed / delayed listings, I got the sense it was corrupted by the big boys and/or pro flippers gaming the system with an inside contact. just like real life.

        that pretty much ended my viewing.

        1. Didn’t a lot of would-be RE moguls find reality after bidding sight-unseen and fine-print-unread on auction.com in the last bust? They would ignore all the legal problems of second and third mortgages and back taxes and think they were getting a bargain, if I’m remembering correctly?

          I remember the constant delays and postponements too. If anything ever went to auction the day – or even the year! – it was scheduled, it was a shocking event.

      2. “Problem is, you probably won’t see inside the shack before you bid! Genius of these clowns, but that’s the plan. So how does the market react? Some sneaky way to get inside? Most will just assume its crater in there and bid way low to protect themselves.”

        This is like trying to sell used cars, sight unseen. Buyers will assume they are getting sold a lemon, and will offer a lower price to protect themselves. Knowing that buyers are going to underbid, anyway, sellers will have no problem with auctioning off homes that they wouldn’t sell if buyers were able to see them.
        They’ve created an auction market for lemons.

  10. “Residents noted flooding in the garage in 1981, the year the tower opened. By 1996, they were already making repairs to the concrete in the garage ceiling.

    Homeowner association records and interviews with residents show that these problems were addressed in isolation, a series of seemingly small problems that no one connected until …”

    OMG. Patch the ceiling as a solution to perpetual flooding from above?
    This decision to patch a dam made by the Homeowners Association.

    A concave instead of a convex foundation, per at least one engineering report I read.

  11. “‘I don’t know if there’s any definition of ‘ghost town,’ he said. ‘So I don’t know if there’s any number.'”

    Doesn’t seem like rocket science to define ‘ghost town’. Pick a minimum number of vacant housing units, and a minimum percentage of all units in the area that are vacant, and you’d have a good working definition.

  12. Some local news:

    “Several residents shared pictures and videos with the Problem Solvers showing leaking roofs, cracking concrete and pooling water.

    At Mantilla’s neighbors’ house, pictures show the aftermath of when a worker responded to a complaint of a leaking ceiling. The homeowners said the worker cut a hole in the bathroom ceiling, pulled out wet insulation and never returned. The owners said they spent $6,000 in repairs.

    According to buyers, other issues include adhesive materials failing, appliances not working and incomplete punch lists.”

    https://kdvr.com/news/problem-solvers/homebuyers-blame-builder-for-ignoring-their-pleas-for-help/

    1. “I was without hot water for a month and a half,” Mantilla said.”

      Back in the 80s before I went to rehab I learned that having the power shut off due to nonpayment was better than having the water turned off due to nonpayment. Because a cold shower was much better than no shower at all.

      Suck it up Javier you bought a new townhome in 2020, cold showers are the least of your worries.

  13. Just saw in hurricane Utah a sign for new homes for 299. Someone had taken a pen and crossed out 299 and written in 419. Dude!

    1. “Transwomen” are not WOMEN. Check the chromosomes, beyatch, check the scars. You can’t mutilate yourself into another gender. Fock these freaks. I don’t have to accept your mentally ill, deranged lifestyles.

      1. Simply put, they’re transmen.
        They will not curtail my free speech nor will I adopt their demented upside down backwards oxymoron lexicon.

      2. “Fock these freaks. I don’t have to accept your mentally ill, deranged lifestyles.”

        I think that’s what Jon Gruden said in one of those emails 10 years ago.

        God Bless Jon Gruden, screw the NFL and Let’s Go Brandon!

        Jon Gruden emails, explained: Raiders coach resigns following release of damning messages

        WRITTEN BY
        ZAC AL-KHATEEB

        What did Jon Gruden say in emails?

        Gruden used racist, sexist, homophobic and transophobic language in the emails, which the Times reports dated from 2010 through 2018, before Gruden was hired by the Raiders for his second stint with the team. Per the Times, he often called NFL commissioner Roger Goodell a “f—t” and a “clueless anti football p—y.” He also used homophobic slurs to describe NFL owners, coaches and reporters who cover the league.

        Gruden also reportedly exchanged emails with Allen and others that included photos of women wearing only bikini bottoms. One photo reportedly included two Washington Football Team cheerleaders. Per the Times, Gruden and Allen also sometimes included Ed Droste, the co-founder of Hooters; Jim McVay, an executive who has run the Outback Bowl; and Nick Reader, the founder of PDQ Restaurants, in the emails.

        Per the Times, Droste in 2017 shared a sexist meme of a woman refereeing in the NFL, with Gruden replying, “Nice job roger.”

        https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/jon-gruden-emails-resigns-raiders-coach/1f7nbdnxccjat1momv1xkg9bpp

    2. By the way, ALL of these woke companies – EVERY SINGLE ONE – are phonies. They are doing it only for brownie points and to not be canceled and lose revenue. It’s ALL about the money. NEVER, EVER forget it. These phony, woke pieces of sh!t should all go down. Never buy anything or use any service from a woke, greedy corporation. They’re as fake as a $3 bill.

      1. **” By the way, ALL of these woke companies – EVERY SINGLE ONE – are phonies. … They’re as fake as a $3 bill”

        it’s such a gottdang relief to read comments from like minded souls, observing the same bullshit, just to reassure yourself you are NOT FREAKING CRAZY as the world spins off it’s axis

    3. There’s a vast liberal conspiracy to turn all of our sons into half-girls and reduce population growth among U.S. citizens to below the replacement rate.

      1. and reduce population growth among U.S. citizens to below the replacement rate

        I thought we were already there.

    1. The Financial Times
      US Inflation
      US inflation heats up in September as pressures persist
      Consumer price index hovers at 13-year high as food and housing grow more expensive
      A grocery story in San Francisco
      Food prices jumped a significant 0.9% for the month
      Colby Smith in Washington and Mamta Badkar in New York yesterday

      The pace of US consumer price growth pushed higher in September, hovering at a 13-year high as inflationary pressures drove up the cost of food, energy and rent.

      The consumer price index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday rose 5.4 per cent in September from a year ago, slightly higher than the annual increase reported for August. Analysts had expected a 5.3 per cent increase.

      On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.4 per cent, up from the 0.3 per cent a month earlier.

      1. Time for Grandma to pay for Junior’s free gambling chips that got invested in crypto and stonks…

  14. ** “A neighbor said Baglione had only moved into the residence one day earlier. ‘He bought the house sight unseen from Alabama, moved in here Thursday and called a real estate agent Friday to return the house,’ the neighbor told WTKR.”

    tragic ending no doubt but what’s with the “return the house”? did Forest Gump think it was a Wal-Mart purchase like back in AlaBAMA . . . !? WTF!?!?
    he should have banged some pots & pans outside the realtors house instead, but at his advanced age probably didn’t have the time nor temperament for that sort of passive response.

  15. Do you notice how various stock market experts have predicted a corretion all year long, that never occurs?

    Is it safe to assume the stock market can only go up from now on, even if the Fed follows through on its announced taper plan?

    1. DOW 50,000 is not out of the questions. Trillions in pumping by the FED and .gov, aimed at asset prices, has a way of doing that.

  16. I was walking around my neighborhood last night and realized that, if there were a 30% correction in housing here, prices would still be higher than they were at the peak of the last bubble.

    1. In nominal dollars, probably, especially after last year’s 30% bump. Not sure about real (inflation adjusted) dollars. Despite the Fed’s protestations, we’ve experienced ALOT of inflation over the past twelve years.

  17. No dollar will be allowed to escape.

    Ford Removes Minimum Credit Score For 84-Month Loans – CarsDirect
    https://www.carsdirect.com/deals-articles/ford-removes-minimum-credit-score-for-84-month-loans

    (snip)

    “Ford has removed its minimum FICO requirement for 84-month financing, according to a bulletin sent this week to dealers. While 84-month loans aren’t for everyone, the change could enable consumers to no longer feel limited by their credit score in the same way as in the past when buying a new Ford car or truck.”

    😁

    “7-year loans still aren’t common, but incentives earlier in the pandemic saw a sudden increase in these types of deals. In Ford’s case, the company introduced 0% APR for 84 months. Even though the offer vanished within a matter of months, 7-year loans have continued to remain a part of Ford’s incentive programs.

    “So does removing its minimum FICO requirement enable anyone to get financed, including buyers who may not be qualified to take out an 84-month loan on a brand-new car? The answer is no, at least based on a statement CarsDirect received from Ford Credit spokesperson Margaret Mellott via email this morning.

    “‘Our proprietary scoring models do an excellent job of assessing the probability that an applicant will be able to pay. FICO is one input. Eliminating the separate FICO requirement opens the prospect of financing to more customers who would qualify for 84-month financing within our models regardless of their FICO score.’

    “While a buyer’s credit score plays an important role in getting financed, it’s just one basic car loan requirement. In this case, Ford’s captive financing company has opted to adjust its requirements. That could make being able to afford a new car seem less like a black-or-white matter tied to one’s credit score.”

    84-month loans often have higher rates that can translate to significant interest costs. While the upside is usually a lower monthly payment, the total cost is another matter. For example, we estimate that Ford’s current rate of 6.9% on the 2022 Bronco Sport would make a $40,000 SUV cost over $50,000 before taxes & fees.

    1. Ford has removed its minimum FICO requirement
      I thought there was supposed to be a new car shortage?
      why would Ford go down the rabbit hole so deep if there were good buyers lined up? Are they doing it for the spread and risking the non-payment?

  18. How do you the price of an asset that won’t sell, due to sellers unwilling to drop the price to market value?

    1. The Financial Times
      Evergrande Real Estate Group
      Evergrande crisis leaves Chinese developers shut out of global debt markets
      Just one dollar bond sold since heavily indebted company’s missed payment shook markets
      An aerial view of construction sites in China’s Qinghai province
      Turmoil at Evergrande has in effect frozen other Chinese developers out of global debt markets, making it more difficult for them to secure much-needed refinancing deals
      Hudson Lockett and Thomas Hale in Hong Kong yesterday

      International bond sales by Chinese developers have all but halted as the crisis at China Evergrande stokes fears of defaults across the country’s property sector, throttling a crucial driver of Asia’s high-yield debt market.

      Just one developer has managed to tap overseas bond investors since Evergrande, the world’s most indebted real estate group, missed an $83.5m interest payment last month, rattling global markets.

      The $102m bond sale by Helenbergh China Holdings this month has done little to address huge funding shortfalls among heavily leveraged property groups. Issuance of high-yield dollar debt is down 28 per cent from a year ago, according to data from Dealogic.

      Bankers and investors said conditions were likely only to worsen without intervention from Beijing.

      “The market really has turned quite gloomy,” said a senior debt capital markets banker at one European bank, who estimated that a third of the approximately 60 Chinese developers with outstanding dollar debt could end up permanently frozen out of international finance, further weakening deal flow.

      The banker added that while investors had been braced for a missed payment by Evergrande for months, a sudden default last week by luxury developer Fantasia “was a real shock to the market”.

      An ICE index tracking Chinese corporate issuers in Asia’s high-yield bond market demonstrates the scale of market contagion. The effective yield on the index has shot up to 24 per cent this week from 10 per cent in June, after fears of defaults spiralled across the developer property sector.

  19. “The effective yield on the index has shot up to 24 per cent this week from 10 per cent in June,…”

    I guess they said ‘effective yield’ because the actual yield is unobserved and unknown if nothing is selling. But we can reasonably guess that 24 percent is not high enough to price in the default risk premiums needed to convince investors that the interest payments are worth the risk of losing their entire stake.

  20. The Financial Times
    Evergrande Real Estate Group
    China’s central bank says spillover from Evergrande crisis ‘controllable’
    Beijing makes first comments on company as Hong Kong probes PwC audit of indebted developer
    Evergrande faces a potential default next week after it missed paying interest on dollar bonds in September
    Thomas Hale, Tabby Kinder and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong
    12 minutes ago

    A People’s Bank of China official has said the spillover of a crisis at Evergrande on the financial system was “controllable”, in the central bank’s first official comments on the world’s most indebted developer since it missed international bond payments last month.

    The statement came as the company faces increasing scrutiny from regulators ahead of a potential default next week, with Hong Kong’s audit watchdog announcing a probe into PwC’s most recent audit of its accounts.

    Zou Lan, an official at the PBoC, told reporters at a press conference on Friday evening that the Evergrande situation was being resolved by local governments and authorities through “market and rule of law principles”, according to state media.

    The comments represent a significant intervention from Beijing after Evergrande sparked volatility across global markets when it missed an interest payment due on September 23 on one of its dollar-denominated bonds, triggering a 30-day grace period.

    The company’s rapidly unfolding liquidity crisis has shown signs of spreading across China’s real estate development sector, where the number of defaults is growing, raising concerns over possible fallout for China’s wider economy.

    Last week developer Fantasia defaulted on a $206m bond, while Sinic Holdings said a default would “likely occur” regarding a payment due on Monday. Offshore yields on China’s riskier corporate borrowers have hit their highest level since 2009.

    Lan said Evergrande had been “poorly managed” and “failed to operate cautiously”, but that the real estate industry more broadly was healthy.

    1. “…the real estate industry more broadly was healthy.”

      I guess having entire cities full of newly-constructed, unoccupied airboxes in the sky is regarded as a sign of health in a Communistic economy. It’s not all that different from some of the empty McMansion tract home developments we saw around US, circa 2008, and are sure to see again once the current wave of housing euphoria reaches its breaking point.

      What next: Forced ownership and occupation of the now-empty towers?

        1. Real Estate
          China has at least 65 million empty homes — enough to house the population of France. It offers a glimpse into the country’s massive housing-market problem.
          Lina Batarags
          Oct 14, 2021, 12:44 AM
          Ghost town in China
          Unfinished buildings and vacant streets in Xiangluo Bay. Yujiapu & Xiangluo Bay, a new central business district under construction in Tianjin, was been expected to be China’s Manhattan. Now it’s a Ghost city. Zhang Peng / Contributor / Getty Images

          – One-fifth of the homes in China — at least 65 million units — are empty.
          – That amount of empty real estate is enough to house the population of France.
          – The ghost cities are a testament to China’s reliance on real estate as a driver of economic growth.

    2. Reuters
      October 14, 2021 3:06 AM PDT Last Updated a day ago
      China
      China real estate shares, bonds hit by Evergrande concerns
      By Andrew Galbraith
      4 minute read
      The company logo is seen on the headquarters of China Evergrande Group in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China September 26, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song
      The company logo is seen on the headquarters of China Evergrande Group in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China September 26, 2021. REUTERS/Aly Song

      SHANGHAI, Oct 14 (Reuters) – Shares and bonds of Chinese real estate companies slid on Thursday, reflecting uncertainty about how a debt crisis will play out at China Evergrande Group
      and the wider property sector as another developer was hit by a rating downgrade.

      Evergrande, which has more than $300 billion in liabilities and 1,300 real estate projects in over 280 cities, missed a third round of interest payments on its international bonds this week.

      The world’s most indebted developer, which has been trying to sell assets to raise funds, appeared to have made small progress towards that goal when Qumei Home Furnishings Group announced in a filing on Thursday that it will buy out Evergrande group’s 40% stake in their furnishings joint venture for 72 million yuan ($11.18 million).

      But in a sign of its continued cash flow problems, municipal officials in Changchun said Evergrande has yet to make $28 million payment for land it acquired in the northeastern city earlier this year.

      Other Chinese developers have also warned they could default on bond payments, and rising risks on Wednesday led credit rating agency S&P Global to downgrade two of the sector’s bigger companies, Greenland Holdings – which has built some of the world’s tallest residential towers – and E-house. S&P also said it could cut their ratings further. read more

      On Thursday, Fitch Ratings issued the latest downgrade, cutting Modern Land (China) Co to a single-C rating after the developer said it was seeking consent from investors to extend a bond’s maturity date by three months.

      Investors have been hoping China would ease monetary policy to stabilise its wobbly recovery, but data on Thursday showed China’s annual factory gate prices rising at the fastest pace on record in September due to soaring raw material costs.

      Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said persistent inflationary pressure would limit the scope of any monetary policy easing.

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