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I’ve Lost So Much Money, I Don’t Know What I’m Doing, This Was Supposed To Be A Safe Investment, What Went Wrong?

A report from Gulf Coast News. “In just three years, Florida’s Gulf Coast has turned from a Category 5 situation, homes bought seemingly before hitting the market and builders can’t keep up. Today, the wind has stopped, homes are staying put with concerns of future powerful hurricanes, rising insurance costs and growing repair bills. Charlotte County homeowners like Glenn Martin, who lives in a Punta Gorda home located just across from Charlotte Harbor, were swamped during Hurricane Helene last September. He is gutting and repairing the house not for himself, but for a future buyer. ‘It blew out the windows in the front. It blew out these doors,’ he said, pointing to the damage. ‘I’m probably going to spend tens of thousands, but I don’t know what they’re going to give me if I try to sell it like this.'”

“Many of his neighbors have already left or are preparing to. Across the region, the scars of the 2024 hurricane season remain visible with thousands of ‘fixer-upper’ listings lining the market, and a growing inventory is signaling a shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s dream. Redfin reports that Florida currently has more than 220,000 homes listed for sale—a more than seven-month supply. More than a thousand of those listings, from Tampa to Marco Island, are labeled as needing major repairs. Even move-in-ready properties are lingering. Realtor Cindy Marsh-Tichy, who represents the Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, North Port and DeSoto areas, said many homeowners are still working on post-storm repairs, but some homes are ready to go. The median home price in the area has dipped to $389,000, Marsh-Tichy said, down from over $400,000 just two years ago. About a third of sellers are slashing their asking prices, according to Redfin. ‘Things are changing,’ she added. ‘And you have to remember that real estate is a cycle.'”

National Public Radio. “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, as of Thursday, has ended a new mortgage-rescue program that so far has helped about 20,000 veterans avoid foreclosure and keep their homes. And it comes at a time when nearly 90,000 VA loans are seriously past due, with 33,000 of those already in the foreclosure process, according to the data and analytics firm ICE. Kevin Conlon and his wife live in upstate New York, not far from where he was stationed with the Army at Fort Drum. Getting a VA loan meant that they could buy a house with no down payment. And they’ve been there ever since. While they’ve been waiting to get into VASP, the Conlons have been told not to make payments, so they’ve been falling further and further behind, and they say their family has nowhere to go if they lose this house.”

“‘The Trump administration rightfully put an end to VA’s VASP program,’ said a joint statement from Rep. Mike Bost, an Illinois Republican and chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, and Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a Wisconsin Republican, when VA announced its plan to end VASP. At a recent House Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee hearing, Rep. Van Orden criticized VASP this way: ‘I understand the whole developmental process of this, and it was moronic,’ Van Orden said. ‘It gets rid of a bum loan, and it passes it off to the American taxpayers.’ That comment did not sit well with fellow Iraq veteran Conlon and his wife, Jenny. ‘That was so hurtful because these are not bum loans, and they’re making the veterans and their families out to sound like irresponsible people,’ his wife added. ‘The level of just mistrust I have — I mean, I get they’re trying to cut spending and all that, but it’s like, how do you justify cutting something that is to help the vets who were basically put in this position because of you?’ Conlon said.”

From 9 News. “Colorado on Wednesday became the 10th state to sue a real estate company that signed homeowners into confusing, decades-long listing agreements. In a lawsuit filed in Adams County District Court, Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser alleged MV Realty used deceptive marketing and high-pressure tactics to sign homeowners into 40-year listing agreements that promise the company a commission whether or not it lists a home. ‘They targeted the most vulnerable people who were financially insecure and needed money, and they misrepresented the product,’ Weiser told 9NEWS Consumer Investigator Steve Staeger after the lawsuit was filed. ’Here’s some easy money with no strings attached, and we won’t put a lien on your property.’ There were strings. There was a lien, and those people who took this deal, they all regretted it.’ The lawsuit comes after a nearly two-year investigation by Steve On Your Side that found more than 900 Colorado homeowners had signed MV Realty’s Homeowner Benefit Agreement (HBA).”

“The lawsuit points to MV Realty’s marketing, which seemed to target people in financial struggles following the 2020 COVID pandemic. The complaint points to language used in MV Realty’s marketing, like ‘Hey homeowners. We know it’s been a tough year. MV Realty can help,’ and ‘With everything going on, we understand finances may be tight right now. MV Realty can help.’ The lawsuit alleges MV Realty used high-pressure sales tactics to get homeowners to sign up, teaching sales representatives to call homeowners four times within the first 24 hours of an inquiry. ‘Often, they were met by a notary at say a McDonald’s and given limited amount of time to even read the document, no ability to have questions answered, and they were outgunned,’ Weiser said. ‘When you give someone a 15-page legal document and you say, I need you to sign it now to get $300, that’s a unfair thing to do.'”

ITV News on California. “When wildfires swept through Los Angeles in January, they left behind more than scorched earth and charred ruins. Across town in the affluent coastal enclave of Pacific Palisades, Ray and Mandy Church are also trying to piece life back together. Their plumbing business was destroyed in a single night. Ray lost all his trucks, tools, and equipment. ‘It’s very worrying and stressful,’ Mandy said. ‘It’s put a lot of strain on us as a couple. I think I lost it at the beginning — I was just spinning in circles. But I had nowhere else to go but up. And that’s what I did.’ Like many others, the Church family were not fully insured — never imagining fire would be the disaster to hit them on the coast of the city. Across Los Angeles, thousands of homes were either uninsured or underinsured.”

The San Francisco Examiner. “San Francisco home values are down five years on from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Zillow. Within The City itself, the average home was worth around $1.3 million when data was most recently available in March. That’s down 5% from the same month five years ago. The trends underscore how remote work and out-migration have undercut demand for the Bay Area’s densest and most expensive housing.”

Bisnow Philadelphia in Pennsylvania. “Buccini Pollin Group’s loan for the Fairfield Inn Philadelphia Valley Forge/King of Prussia and Crowne Plaza Philadelphia King of Prussia entered special servicing in December amid concerns of an ‘imminent default,’ according to a report from Morningstar Credit. ‘Borrower is cooperating with return of keys to Lender,’ the financial services firm said in an April 7 update. ‘Counsels have been retained. … Lender is reviewing viable options for next steps.’ In a statement, Buccini Pollin co-founder Dave Pollin said the company considered refinancing or extending the loan and selling the properties, according to the Philadelphia Business Journal. Ultimately, it decided to hand over the properties, Pollin said. ‘Hundreds of hotels, offices buildings, etc across the country have been returned to lenders due to the impact of covid, the slow recovery of certain markets, dramatically higher interest rates today and loan maturities that occur before assets have fully recovered,’ Pollin said in a separate statement to Bisnow.”

From USA Today. “Canada’s embattled auto workers are bracing for impact. ‘We’re holding our breath,’ said Jeff Gray, president of Unifor Local 222, a union representing 5,000 workers and suppliers in Oshawa, home to a General Motors assembly plant. ‘We have earned these jobs. These are not Donald Trump’s jobs to take.’ Chris Waugh, Local 222’s chairperson and a 23-year worker at the plant, said Oshawa autoworkers were keeping the focus on their daily work in the face of possible job losses. ‘They’re mad, angry,’ Waugh said. ‘There’s fear. They have mortgages, they have bills.’ Economists say Canada’s auto industry − with 125,000 workers − is on the verge of collapse. ‘It’s not clear that the industry will survive in Canada,’ said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group.”

“Union leaders said they hoped an internal redirection could save Canada’s auto industry. With around 1.8 million cars sold in Canada last year, the country’s internal auto market is ‘substantial,’ according to Porter. Still, ‘it’s debatable whether it’s a large enough market for a factory to continue producing just for the Canadian market,’ he said. By comparison, nearly 16 million cars were sold in the U.S. in 2024. The U.S. is, by far, the biggest market for Canada’s auto factories. Last year, Canada exported $28 billion worth of cars to the U.S. − 94% of its total annual auto exports. Gray said the union won’t allow General Motors to move jobs out of Oshawa. ‘It’s clean and simple,’ Gray said. ‘Once those jobs leave, they’re never coming back, so we’re not going to allow them to leave.’ ‘Not one piece of equipment is going to leave that plant,’ Waugh said.”

The Globe and Mail. “Jittery potential buyers in Canada’s real estate market may be more willing to concentrate on house hunting now that the federal election is in the past. Still, in cities around Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe, move-up buyers are rare and first-time purchasers are wary, real estate agents say. In Hamilton, tariff talk halted the momentum that started in the opening weeks of 2025, says Melissa Carrington, real estate agent at Keller Williams Complete Realty. ‘It just died,’ she says. The question became, ‘do I qualify for a passport to where my parents were born?’ In the Hamilton-Burlington area, many more expensive properties have been languishing. ‘We see price reductions happen every week,’ she says.”

“The trade war has cast a gloom in Durham Region because heavyweight General Motors employs thousands at its assembly plant in Oshawa, Ont. GM workers live throughout the area in towns as far as Port Perry, Blackstock, Lindsay and Peterborough, says Shawn Lackie, real estate agent with International Realty Firm. ‘Fall in love with the house when the cheque clears,’ he says. ‘You have to be prepared to walk away.’ Some sellers are still stuck in 2020, he says, looking for prices that their neighbour received when buyers were motivated by ‘fear of missing out.’ ‘Bill made off with an extra $300,000 because someone came along who was willing to throw that at him,’ he says. ‘They had buyer’s remorse, but it was all covered up with the relief.'”

“One weak spot in the area’s housing market is the category of recently completed homes that were purchased in preconstruction in 2020, 2021 and 2022, says Faisal Susiwala, broker at Re/Max Twin City Faisal Susiwala Realty. Some purchasers paid around $1.4-million, but values have fallen and interest rates have risen since they agreed to that amount on paper. Some tried to forfeit their deposit and walk away, Mr. Susiwala says, but the builders threatened to sue and place a lien on the property or a principal residence. To make matters worse, the builders then became competitors by selling their remaining inventory in the same subdivisions at lower prices. That in turn led to appraisals that came in at $1.1-million or $1.2-million compared with the $1.4-million some purchasers had agreed to pay a few years earlier. Many of the purchasers, unable to sell the property for the price they paid, turned to the rental market, Mr. Susiwala says. In order to cover carrying costs of $12,000 to $15,000 a month, some homeowners are putting 10 or 12 students into each property. ‘They’re unfortunately turning these subdivisions into rooming houses,’ he says. ‘It’s an act of desperation on the part of the homeowner.'”

Domain News in Australia. “House prices in exclusive Melbourne suburbs have dropped. Blue-ribbon Toorak experienced a deep yearly fall, dropping by 26.7 per cent to a median house price of $4.25 million, Domain figures from the 12 months to March show. South Yarra (a new median of $1.8 million, after an 18 per cent decline), Armadale ($2.1 million, a drop of 16.7 per cent), Prahran ($1,555,000, down 13.1 per cent) and Brighton ($2.75 million, a 10 per cent slide) are among the select city suburbs that are much cheaper now than a year ago. Domain’s latest House Price Report also showed steep median reductions in highly sought Mornington Peninsula enclaves of Sorrento ($1.75 million, down 23.9 per cent) and Blairgowrie ($1.34 million, a fall of 15.7 per cent).”

“‘The buyer pool, where there is a median over $4 million, is quite shallow,’ said LJ Hooker head of research and economics Mathew Tiller. ‘But this time last year, we saw the affordable end of the market lead, and opportunistic buyers will take advantage of the price drops that we have seen at the top end. The supply and demand imbalance, in terms of the number of listings on the market, still leans towards a buyer’s market.'”

Opes Partners in New Zealand. “If you bought an investment property in 2021, you might be wondering: ‘What the hell did I do?’ You’re not alone. Because if you bought a $1 million property in November 2021 (and it dropped by the average amount) it might be worth just $850k by March 2025. You were probably proud when you first bought that property, but those big property price falls are enough to turn pride into shame, regret and, in many cases, serious financial stress. Many investors I work with feel things like: ‘I’m stuck in this property … I’ve lost so much money … I don’t know what I’m doing. This was supposed to be a safe investment – what went wrong?’ I get the anger. I get the frustration. Because I am right there too.”

“In 2021 my husband and I bought not one, but two investment properties in Auckland. It was right at the top. We bought for all the right reasons: Auckland looked undervalued. The bank was willing to lend us the money. Cashflow stacked up at the time. But then: Our two properties dropped in value by $500,000. The cashflow tanked and we had to put in over $1,500 a week (across 4 properties) of our own money. One of our other properties suffered a rent fall from $730 to $650 a week. So when things started to slide, I felt like I’d failed – not just financially, but in our relationship. Our dream of retiring at 60 suddenly looked like wishful thinking. I felt hopeless, like I was throwing money into a pit.”

“Being an investor is hard when things go wrong. Nobody talks about their financial failures. We all share the highlight reels, never the lowlights. But I’ve had dozens of clients reach out in the past year – angry, confused and ashamed. They say: ‘I feel stuck. I’ve lost so much. I don’t know what I’m doing.’ To them I say: You made the best decision you could with the information you had. The only way to guarantee a loss is to sell now. Time in the market matters more than timing the market. And most importantly – know that better days are coming. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next year, but they are coming.”

This Post Has 122 Comments
  1. ‘Like many others, the Church family were not fully insured — never imagining fire would be the disaster to hit them on the coast of the city. Across Los Angeles, thousands of homes were either uninsured or underinsured’

    That’s some sound lending right there.

    1. Bond Investing
      Will US Treasury Bond Yields Stay High?
      Bond fund managers disagree about whether the recent spike in long-term yields is a sign of things to come or a temporary shock.
      Gabe Alpert
      29 April, 2025 | 7:49AM
      Collage illustration featuring a U.S. dollar coin, a city skyscraper, and abstract graphical elements.

      Key Takeaways

      • Bond yields jumped after the tariff announcement, and they have held most of those increases.

      • The rise is unusual, in that it comes as expectations of a recession have grown.

      • Fund managers say it’s still unclear whether the rise is temporary, and that it depends on the underlying causes.

      https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/264133/will-us-treasury-bond-yields-stay-high-.aspx

    2. Real Estate
      Homebuyer mortgage demand drops further, as economic uncertainty roils the housing market
      Published Wed, Apr 30 2025 7:00 AM EDT
      Updated Wed, Apr 30 2025 7:28 AM EDT
      Diana Olick

      Key Points

      – The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 6.89% from 6.90%

      – Even with rates much lower than a year ago, potential buyers are hitting pause.

      – Applications to refinance a mortgage were still significantly higher than they were at this time last year.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/homebuyer-mortgage-demand-drops-further-as-economic-uncertainty-roils-the-housing-market.html

  2. ‘Some purchasers paid around $1.4-million, but values have fallen and interest rates have risen since they agreed to that amount on paper. Some tried to forfeit their deposit and walk away, Mr. Susiwala says, but the builders threatened to sue and place a lien on the property or a principal residence. To make matters worse, the builders then became competitors by selling their remaining inventory in the same subdivisions at lower prices. That in turn led to appraisals that came in at $1.1-million or $1.2-million compared with the $1.4-million some purchasers had agreed to pay a few years earlier’

    So the developer undercuts them even more than the a$$ pounding they already took, causing appraisals to crater. Then sues the FBs for walking away.

  3. ‘They’re mad, angry,’ Waugh said. ‘There’s fear. They have mortgages, they have bills’

    You had yer little chicken sh$t election Chris. Now all the loud talk is just that, talk. Put yer head between yer knees and kiss yer a$$ goodbye.

    ‘Economists say Canada’s auto industry − with 125,000 workers − is on the verge of collapse. ‘It’s not clear that the industry will survive in Canada’…Union leaders said they hoped an internal redirection could save Canada’s auto industry. With around 1.8 million cars sold in Canada last year, the country’s internal auto market is ‘substantial,’ according to Porter. Still, ‘it’s debatable whether it’s a large enough market for a factory to continue producing just for the Canadian market,’ he said. By comparison, nearly 16 million cars were sold in the U.S. in 2024. The U.S. is, by far, the biggest market for Canada’s auto factories. Last year, Canada exported $28 billion worth of cars to the U.S. − 94% of its total annual auto exports’

    So there is no way K-da can buy even a tenth of the cars they make. Maybe you can sell them to Mexicans Chris?

    1. What was the advantage of moving the auto industry from Destroit to Canada in the first place? Canada isn’t exactly “cheap labor.”

      1. What was the advantage of moving the auto industry from Destroit to Canada in the first place?

        i thought that was a real good question so I hit the old askjeeves buttons: It says

        Canada, particularly regions like Ontario, became an important part of the automotive industry due to its proximity to Detroit and the availability of skilled labor. The auto industry in Canada complemented the Detroit-based industry, with many parts and components being manufactured in Canada and shipped to Detroit for assembly. This cross-border collaboration was facilitated by the existing rail and water transportation networks and the shared industrial base.

        1. Then the Canadian jobs largely went to Mexico. IMO that’s how the globalist scum do things. First manufacturing plants went to Mexico, then thousands were shut down and left for China. A race for the bottom. The auto parts integration was done so it would be hard to unwind. That needs to go. Crossing three borders 11 times to assemble a car is stupid.

          1. It’s a massive security risk too. I’m not sure sure if this race to the bottom was all thought out by the globalists, or if complex supply chains happened via the Invisible Hand. I’m guessing it was a combination. For example, maybe some globalist engineered a tax break, or some USAID scammer sent money to a country to make a single piece-part, and boom, in 40 years your supply chains are a Rub Goldberg machine.

            I had NO idea how much of an uproar would be caused by a few tariffs.

          2. an uproar

            The uproar was a useful tool invented and pushed hard by the Liberals (Globalist freaks) to divert attention from their terrible record governing Canada, to win this week’s election.

    2. “‘Once those jobs leave, they’re never coming back, so we’re not going to allow them to leave.’ ‘Not one piece of equipment is going to leave that plant,’ Waugh said.”

      How exactly do they think they are going to accomplish this? Magic potion or something?

      1. The magic potion is called Marxism. Nationalization of an American owned factory in Canada will be quite interesting to watch.

  4. ‘I’ve had dozens of clients reach out in the past year – angry, confused and ashamed. They say: ‘I feel stuck. I’ve lost so much. I don’t know what I’m doing.’ To them I say: You made the best decision you could with the information you had. The only way to guarantee a loss is to sell now. Time in the market matters more than timing the market. And most importantly – know that better days are coming. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next year, but they are coming’

    That’s what I tell the winnahs! too Kathy. And no eating expensive food!

  5. Canada is screwed. There’s a good chance in my lifetime that Alberta will become the 51st state. Even their major cities vote conservative which is different from the US where our major cities all vote for the equivalent of the liberal party. Those non-coastal provinces aren’t going to let the Camp of the Saints-esque coastal provinces destroy their provinces too. And it makes sense too, all of North America is undergoing the ‘great sorting’ and Canada is being dragged into it too.

    1. And, here’s a quick FYI from Chat GPT (not edited):

      ——–
      How much of Canada’s fossil fuels are located in Alberta province?

      ChatGPT said:
      ​Alberta holds approximately 97% of Canada’s proven oil reserves, primarily in the form of oil sands (bitumen). This concentration positions Alberta as a central player in Canada’s energy sector and contributes significantly to the country’s global oil reserve ranking.
      ————

      Holy sheet. I wasn’t expecting that number.

      1. Since we’re discussing energy, hijacking this sub-thread about your electrical.

        Where in the house (or outside) is your panel? Is it flush mount (in the wall) or surface mount on the wall? Is there more than one panel, do you have a sub-panel? How many amps is your service?

        For the car charger, if you don’t already have a subpanel in the garage, where is your main panel in relation to the garage?

        If the car charger is a project for later after the service upgrade, your sparky can do some prep work for that while the wall is already open.

        I love EMT conduit, even in residential, for future. Install a chunk of conduit out of the new panel stubbing up into the attic. I did this on an addition I did last year, but with a chunk of 1″ EMT stubbed down into the crawlspace for future. My customer will likely never need that big of conduit, but I always oversize if I’m installing for future.

        1. Thank you for replying!

          I have one panel in the basement, flush with the drywall. The basement drywall is already riddled with holes where other work was done, so it doesn’t hurt to open up those walls more. Unfortunately, the wires to the house, and the panel, are on the other side of the house from the driveway (~35 feet). My amps are whatever was the standard in the 1970s. I have an easy-to-access open attic where someone could walk around if they crouched over. It’s pretty easy to run stuff through. Since I’d be getting a lot of electric done anyway, I wouldn’t mind a new 240V (or two?) also in the basement to eventually accommodate an electric range. Plus I would want outdoor outlets on a back deck and near the driveway. With all the new lines, I might be getting close to a heavy-up.

          A couple years ago I wrote down a laundry list of to-dos. A friend-of-a-friend who’s a sparky looked at it and said it’s all doable, not complicated, but there’s a lot and it’s going to run in the $five figures. But modernizing the e- was one of the recommendations of my house inspection, so it’s part of my house plans. I don’t mind paying money; I just don’t want to be cheated.

          1. That’s a lot of work.

            I can’t speak to his quote because I don’t do much resi work, and the addition I did was billed on time and materials.

            Get multiple quotes. Traditionally, winter would be the cheapest time of year, but considering this is Maryland, resi sparkies could already see DOGE eroding their customer base.

            With the car charger, plan for installing technology that doesn’t exist yet. Oversize the EMT before the walls get closed up as a CYA move for later.

          2. Thanks for the advice! From what you’re saying, it might be better to wait for fall or winter. Not only would it be cheaper then, but it would also be after a lot of FedGov RIFs and retirements, AND after a bunch of self-deportations. Plus it would give me more time to save up for it.

    2. “There’s a good chance in my lifetime that Alberta will become the 51st state.”

      Citing the Monroe Doctrine, the U.S. is never going to allow China on our northern border. Never!

  6. “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, as of Thursday, has ended a new mortgage-rescue program that so far has helped about 20,000 veterans avoid foreclosure and keep their homes.”

    And then they go on to give us a cry-me-river story when really the story is how much fraud and speculation there was and is in FHA, VA and conventional. FHA and VA are the new subprime, only way worse. No subprime loan back in the GFCI had the option to get a loan and never make a single payment because the servicer would just keep modifying the loan until you reach 30% of the original loan amount. They’ve documented where the borrower never made a payment. And many of those were second home’s fraudulent purchased as owner occupied.

    1. Inconceivable! Surely Fauxahontus, that ever-vigilant guardian of the soundness of our financial system, would never let such monumental systemic fraud slip past her & fellow financial stewards Yellen the Felon & Maxine Waters. The mothers of the scofflaws engaged in such fraud will weep when they see what Senator Running Deer has done to their wayward hellspawn.

    2. ‘That was so hurtful because these are not bum loans, and they’re making the veterans and their families out to sound like irresponsible people,’

      You don’t pay your mortgage, you get foreclosed on. That’s the way this works. Yet they feel victimized? And if they qualified you with no down, a 600 FICO score and DTI over45% then you are a “bum loan”!

  7. [I ran across this insight from readers of The FreePress and thought I would share …]

    https://archive.ph/7chSC

    Readers of The Free Press are smart, opinionated, and ideologically diverse. That means we get a lot of really fascinating letters. We can’t publish all of them, but every month we print a handful that have us talking in the office.

    First up this month, Rob Henderson responds to Tyler Cowen’s recent column defending intellectual elitism.

    “Too many who despise ‘the elites’ do not look closely enough at the dissidents—or assess what they get right and wrong, and how they got there,” Cowen wrote. Henderson, on the other hand, says that mistrust in elites arises more out of a disconnect between “experts” and elites:

    In reflecting on the collapse of institutional trust during the pandemic, one moment stands out: The summer of 2020, when many officials and media figures who had urged strict lockdowns pivoted to endorsing mass gatherings for Black Lives Matter demonstrations.

    This sudden shift created widespread confusion and suspicion. If Covid was so dangerous that funerals and family visits had to be canceled, why were mass protests permitted? It seemed as though the rules weren’t grounded in science but in politics. Many interpreted this double standard not just as hypocrisy but as a revelation: If the cause was fashionable, restrictions were negotiable. Some people refused the Covid vaccine not out of ignorance, but as a way to object to what they saw as a double standard. If mass gatherings were permissible for political causes, then perhaps the threat wasn’t as grave as claimed.

    Tyler Cowen recently argued that the “real elites”—the expert scientists—remained closer to the truth and that critics of elites aren’t looking far enough up the hierarchy with regard to Covid transmission and vaccinations. But this misses a crucial point. People too often conflate experts and elites. They are not interchangeable. When elites don’t care about a topic, the experts rule. But once elites turn their attention to an issue—especially when it carries strong moral overtones—elite opinion usually overrides expert consensus.

    Elites like to portray their views as aligned with expert analysis, but this is often a mirage. Elite opinion is shaped more by prestige than by technical knowledge. And when moral righteousness enters the mix, it often supplants reasoned, evidence-based guidance.

    This disconnect—between what the experts recommended and what the elites declared—helps explain why trust eroded. Many Americans weren’t rejecting science. They were rejecting what looked like elite political manipulation dressed up as science.
    —Rob Henderson

    Similarly, Christopher Rufo makes a distinction between technological and political issues. America’s elites did well with the former but utterly failed at the latter, he says:

    I admire Tyler Cowen, but his recent column on elites in the Covid era has a major blind spot: the failure to separate the technological from the political. On technological questions, America’s educated class performed ably, developing a novel vaccine, maintaining medical systems, and keeping essential goods flowing through the supply chain. But on the political questions, the elites were a disaster.

    There still has not been an accounting for some of the most egregious policies of the era. During the pandemic, elites continued the lockdowns beyond the evidence, used heavy-handed censorship of dissent, forced vaccinations on populations that did not need them, and published a steady stream of lies about lockdown duration, post-vaccination transmission, and the origins of the coronavirus.

    We all remember the slogans: “Two weeks to stop the spread,” “You can’t transmit the virus after vaccination,” and “the lab leak theory is a racist conspiracy.”

    Moreover, the elites revealed that they are not driven by “science, open-ended inquiry, and truth-seeking,” but by a pernicious form of left-wing racialism. During the lockdowns, virtually all of the elite institutions submitted to Black Lives Matter ideologies and encouraged mass protests while simultaneously shutting down churches and small businesses. Some states even considered distributing vaccines according to a racial hierarchy, with “oppressors” at the bottom of the list.

    Whatever their technological virtues, American elites caused—and deserved—the collapse in institutional trust. You can’t punish, censor, lie, scold, ideologize, and lock down Americans, a freedom-loving people, without creating a reaction. And this loss of trust cannot be rebuilt by concluding, after the disasters of the past five years, that elites did a pretty good job after all.
    —Chris Rufo

  8. The Economist – Trump’s revolution is the only way to save America, says the architect of Project 2025.

    Paul Dans argues that the system needed smashing and rebuilding.

    https://archive.ph/1do2Z

    WE MIGHT ALL be able to agree on one thing at least. The past 100 days have been the most consequential in modern American presidential history, save perhaps those of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first term. The very idea of 100 days as a presidential metric comes from Roosevelt’s whirlwind enactment of New Deal legislation. The first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term are the appropriate coda to FDR’s. Mr Trump closed the book on FDR’s 90-year progressive era and ushered in the “Golden Age” of populism: out with New Deal and in with the Real Deal. What does it mean to get real? Simply putting America’s interests first.

    To outsiders, particularly Europeans, anxious to understand what Trump 2.0 portends: remain calm; there is a method here. Mr Trump has embarked upon a great restoration of America. The nation needs first to get back on its feet in order to remain the world’s beacon of freedom and democracy. The system is broken.

    A builder, Mr Trump knows that the initial phase of any renovation is demolition. Like popcorn ceilings and formica countertops, many of the progressive additions to America’s government are today retrograde and need to be pulled down. How will the American left impede Mr Trump? Recall that FDR threatened court-packing to cajole the judiciary to bless his progressive form of government. Mr Trump’s team must now square off with the votaries of that scheme to undo it.

    Like FDR, Mr Trump entered the Oval Office with America on a collision course, his only option being to move quickly and forcefully. For those opposed to reform, consider the status quo. The federal budget in 2025 is a $7trn behemoth. Some 40% larger in real terms than just ten years ago, today’s budget comes in with a deficit conservatively forecast at $1.9trn and gross national debt of $36trn, clicking up another trillion dollars about every 100 days. Annual debt service exceeds the Department of Defence’s budget. But what exactly does the American citizen get for $7trn? A country falling apart and potentially unable to defend itself.

    Supply shocks from covid-19 underscored the strategic danger of a hollowed-out industrial base in the 21st-century global economy. Next came depletion of weapons stocks during the Ukraine war, raising concerns that we might no longer be able to defend ourselves because we lack productive capacity. America may lead in innovation and intellectual property, but what about good old-fashioned gunpowder? We have a single factory in all of America that produces it. And steel and heavy industry? Following a push under Barack Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency, America dismantled many of the coal- and nuclear-power plants required to sustain the electric load needed to power that production. How can a country serve as the arsenal of democracy when it takes seven years to restock the stinger missiles sent to Ukraine?

    On the home front America is equally troubled: infrastructure crumbles, migrant flows exhaust public resources and stoke violent crime. Each year, in the order of 100,000 Americans perish from fentanyl and other drug overdoses, more than all the American soldiers who died in Vietnam. The list goes on.

    So let’s get real here. The $7trn is not serving the American people, but rather those who serve themselves from government largesse, including many around the globe. To make America run again, its government needs to be restored to one of, by and for the people, not a cadre of unelected, revolving-door bureaucrats. A renovation of government in accordance with its original constitutional architecture is required. As Elon Musk remarked, Mr Trump is not a threat to democracy, but a threat to bureaucracy. The “threat” posed is the promise of transparency and accountability.

    America’s constitution envisions three branches of government: legislative, executive and judicial. FDR created a fourth, the administrative state. The constitution provides “[t]he executive Power shall be vested in a President”. The investiture is exclusive to the president, not reposited in a committee of presidents, nor an agency “independent” of presidential control. The buck is supposed to stop on the president’s desk. An agency independent of the president is one independent of the people—that is, unaccountable. That’s not democracy.

    To thwart Mr Trump and preserve their elite system, progressives are retreating to make their final stand through an activist judiciary. Historically courts preserved their own legitimacy by abstaining from political questions decided by the other two branches of government. District courts have now crossed this red line and stepped into a constitutional minefield, imposing their political views on issues that are clearly the province of the executive.

    Mr Trump learned the hard way that the activist judiciary is powered by universities and Big Law. Over the past 20 years the American left seized near-complete control of these institutions and systematically hounded out conservatives from their ranks, squelching viewpoints held by a majority of Americans. Ask why Harvard and Columbia do not send their most MAGA professors as emissaries to the White House to plead over grant cuts? Because they have none. Big Law, for its part, abused the legal profession by funnelling its profits into partisan lawfare under the guise of pro bono advocacy. Why don’t the MAGA partners of Big Law stand up in defence of their firms? Same answer: they don’t exist. By confronting these liberal citadels, the Trump administration has wisely cut off the supply lines to the activist judiciary.

    How does this all play out? Will Mr Trump rebuild an America First skyline or will the malaise of the status quo win out? My bet’s on Trump the builder. ■

    Paul Dans led Project 2025, the presidential transition plan for Donald Trump’s second term, while at the Heritage Foundation. He left the think-tank in July 2024.

    1. “The past 100 days have been the most consequential in modern American presidential history, ”

      I don’t believe this at all. Trump did a lot, yes, but all he is really doing is unwinding what Biden did, and trying to enforce laws that Congress had already passed, and even much of that is winding its way through the courts. In fact, if Trump has to do so much to unwind what Biden did, then you could easily argue that it was the BIDEN admin that was consequential. At best, Trump has the fastest RATE of accomplishments.

        1. I can’t name one positive thing from the Unelected Occupant administration. Not one.
          How about the Biden admin policies lead to a total republican control of the House, Senate and President. Plus gave the GOP the majority of the votes.

        2. Consequential doesn’t need to be positive. Letting in 10 million illegal immigrants and letting them buy cars is pretty consequential. So is allowing $950 in free shoplifting each day. So is letting violent criminals out of jail.

      1. Firing squads and public hangings would be consequential. Not one arrest has been made. While he has done more than anyone else would have, there is still significant room for improvement.

          1. Indeed. And with 200+ cutie-pies not one is willing to come forward on the pages of People magazine for $50k+ to share their story? Yeah, Pam Blondi [sic] is full of s*it!

  9. The Economist – America may be just weeks away from a mighty economic shock.

    Trade between China and America is already sinking.

    https://archive.ph/ELQgj

    Five years ago, when the pandemic shut down the global economy, frazzled economists turned to novel measures, such as mobility data and restaurant and cinema bookings, to track the closure in real time. Now the world is desperate to assess the damage caused by Donald Trump’s swingeing tariffs on Chinese imports, and pundits are again using innovative techniques. Their findings suggest the world’s biggest economy is not reeling yet. But trouble is coming.

    Even before the implementation of many of the tariffs, on April 9th, polling suggested American consumers and businesses were worried. According to a survey by the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve, manufacturers’ output fell to a record low in April. And figures released on April 30th showed that America’s gdp contracted by 0.3% in annualised terms. The trade deficit swelled as companies rushed to build up inventories of foreign goods before the tariffs came into effect.

    Real-time data allow economists to see what has happened since. Many covid-era indicators are not relevant or no longer published. Fortunately, however, global trade is thoroughly tracked. Ships set off weeks in advance of their arrival, broadcasting their position to satellites and providing a list of what they contain.

    Some indicators might suggest a limited impact from the trade war so far. In the week ending April 25th ten container ships, carrying 555,000 tonnes of goods, arrived at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—America’s preferred entry gates for goods from China. That is about the same as a year ago. But many cargo ships arriving now set off before the tariffs began.

    Other readings look scarier. Bookings for new journeys between China and America plummeted by 45% year-on-year in the week beginning April 14th, according to Vizion, a data firm. The number of blank sailings, when a vessel skips a port or a carrier runs fewer ships on a route to even out the service, has risen to 40% of all scheduled trips. Pricing data suggests trade flows are being reshuffled. The cost of sailing between Shanghai and Los Angeles has fallen by about $1,000 a container in the past month, according to Freightos, a logistics company, as businesses have gone from front-running the tariffs to avoiding them. The price for ferrying goods from Vietnam to America has risen by a similar amount, suggesting importers have been looking for alternative suppliers.

    Trade shocks take a while to propagate through the economy, meaning that the full extent of the damage may still be some time away. Companies can rely on their inventories for a time, for instance; demand for bonded warehouses, which allow firms to store goods near ports and pay customs only when they are released, has surged. Many firms are also opting not to raise prices—which in theory they should do, to ration their stockpiles—because they are bound by pre-existing contracts or want to preserve relationships with customers in case Mr Trump changes his mind. And a 90-day pause on the most extreme tariffs on other Asian countries will give importers a chance to shuffle production. Apple plans to source more iPhones for the American market from India rather than China, for instance.

    Yet the flexibility of supply chains has limits. Studies of the far more modest tariffs imposed during Mr Trump’s first term found that they were eventually passed along in full to American consumers. It took around a year for businesses to find alternative suppliers. In the short term, the uncertainty created by Mr Trump’s erratic policies has caught many shipping firms off-guard, says Peter Sand of Xeneta, a logistics consultancy, even after a decade of problems caused by the pandemic, a blockage of the Suez Canal and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. That will take a toll on trade and the wider economy even if America cancels its most punitive measures. Ships that failed to depart on time will arrive with a lag, or not at all. Inventories will be run down. Many businesses will have frozen investment and hiring plans which they may be slow to restart.

    Could these economic costs lead to a swift political reckoning? Free traders hoping that they might do so could be disappointed. A recent paper by David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues finds that most places harmed by the tariffs imposed by Mr Trump during his first term have since leaned Republican. The authors speculate that voters may have thought it was important to “confront” China in spite of the costs. America is not yet suffering from a self-inflicted trade storm. But the shipping forecast is not good. ■

  10. The WSJ – Beijing Doesn’t Want America to See Its Trade-War Pain.

    Plunging trade has already led to job cuts; ‘it is very painful’.

    https://archive.ph/VeX2w

    China has signaled that as a nation it is better able to tolerate the pain of a prolonged tariff war than the U.S. But cracks are starting to show, suggesting how deeply that pain is already setting in across its economy.

    Plunging trade across the Pacific is leading to production halts and threatening to undermine job stability for millions of Chinese. On Wednesday, China’s economy showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war, with a drop in export orders in April and the weakest production at the country’s factories in more than a year.
    Chinese officials have played down any evidence of hardship, reiterating their confidence that this year’s growth target of around 5% will be reached.

    But in recent weeks, signs have accumulated that many businesses are struggling to survive. Companies reliant on sales to the U.S. market, ranging from makers of toys, furniture and T-shirts, to metal producers and manufacturers of electrical appliances and construction equipment, have suspended production and put employees on leave. Those that need to source U.S. components for production, such as semiconductor plants and carmakers, have been scrambling to keep operations running.

    Some business owners have likened the disruptions to production shutdowns during the Covid pandemic—with the warning that the outlook appears more dismal this time.

    “Everyone I know is worried,” said Feng Qiang, who recently furloughed a dozen workers at his modest machinery plant in southern China’s Guangdong province because of canceled orders from his American customers. “There is no end in sight.”

    While the trade war is also hitting American businesses and heightening inflationary pressure and recession risks in the U.S., the pain for China is likely to go deeper. That is partly because it has increased, rather than decreased, its focus on exports as a cornerstone of the economy.

    Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, noted in a new research report that surging exports in the past few years helped China avert a financial crisis when a property bust weakened investment and consumption, strained government finances and stressed banks.

    The sky-high U.S. tariffs, on top of the property-sector ills, mean “the economy is set to face two major drags simultaneously,” he said.

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping is showing no indication that Beijing will back down on tariffs. The government has repeatedly vowed to fight to the end, girding the nation for a long struggle reminiscent of how Mao Zedong led China to fight the U.S. forces in the Korean War of the 1950s.

    A meeting last week of the 24-member Politburo, presided over by Xi, held off on launching new stimulus and emphasized the importance of strengthening “bottom-line thinking”—a term Xi used to prepare the Chinese system for hard times.

    “Xi today has the same mentality as Mao,” said an adviser to the Chinese government. “His bottom line is that no major crisis will be allowed to endanger his hold on power.”

    China has made much of official data showing the U.S. share of China’s exports has dropped to about 15% from 18% in 2018, the start of the two countries’ first trade war. Yet many economists point out that the U.S. market actually makes up nearly 21% of China’s total sales overseas after goods rerouted from other countries are counted.

    They say it is hard to overstate the importance of U.S. trade to the Chinese economy. Overall exports account for around 13% of China’s gross domestic product, with the U.S. estimated to represent about 3% of China’s GDP.

    Larry Hu, a China economist at Macquarie, said China’s overall exports are likely to decline by 10% this year while the country’s sales to the U.S. would be “largely wiped out.”
    Analysts have said China’s economy was likely weaker in the first quarter than official data have suggested.

    The biggest impact of the tariffs will be on jobs tied to trade; the big number of workers in manufacturing; production of raw materials; and services such as logistics and finance that facilitate trade flows. Lu of Nomura projected that Trump’s tariffs will cost China as many as 15.8 million jobs.

    Business owners already testify to the spreading pain.
    Huang Deming, who has made garments and Christmas decorations for exports for nearly two decades, in April cut the daily shifts at his factory in southern China to two from three and put 30% of his workers on leave after three main customers canceled orders for the U.S. market.

    “It is very painful, not just because of the tariffs, but because of the unpredictability,” Huang said. He has sent his two sons to Hong Kong, Australia and Italy to hunt for new customers, but might have to put more workers on leave in May.

    His company has tried to diversify away from the U.S. market, whose share of his business has gone from 80% before the pandemic to 60% now. Any lower than that will be hard as other markets don’t pay as much as the U.S., Huang said.

    Within the Chinese government, the importance of trade to jobs is no secret. While hosting a meeting over the need to stabilize exports at the height of the pandemic in 2020, then-Premier Li Keqiang said “the foreign-trade sector, directly or indirectly, creates jobs for over 180 million people.” In particular, Li highlighted such industries as textiles, luggage and plastic products, which all counted the U.S. as a major destination, as particularly consequential to employment in China.

    Economists warn that falling exports would have cascading effects across the economy, putting millions more jobs on the line and risking a recession that would be hard to dig out of for many years to come.

    In a sign of how fast trade is drying up, U.S. cargo bookings out of China have fallen 60%, according to Flexport, a San Francisco-based company that helps companies ship cargo around the world.
    If Beijing is worried about the economic fallout, it is hiding its concern well. Unlike in the U.S., where big market drops are barometers of confidence in the economy, the Chinese leadership has a tighter grip on such expressions of concern. For instance, authorities have restricted the selling of stocks by institutional investors and have been deploying state funds to prop up the market.

    To mitigate the economic costs, Beijing has quietly exempted some U.S.-made products from China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs, in a sign that Chinese companies are struggling to source them from elsewhere immediately.

    That was a big relief for Su Mai, a director at Huaquan Technology. Su said he was struggling to refill inventory and fulfill orders because all his suppliers stopped selling U.S. chips. His firm helps companies integrate semiconductors and other equipment into their corporate systems.

    But some U.S.-made memory chips are still subject to high Chinese tariffs. “Tariff or not, it serves as a reminder,” Su said. “We should reckon carefully how to make our products and supply chain more secure and immune from the trade war.”
    Meanwhile, company notices of hardship testify to the jobs already being hit.

    Guangdong Road Mate Group, which makes strollers and other baby products and has more than 1,800 employees, announced recently that it would reduce working hours and put some workers on leave, citing “the influence of force majeure such as geopolitics and tariff policies.” A manager confirmed that the company’s operations have been hit by U.S. tariffs.

      1. What is China worried about? They can just sell their excess goods in Africa or Europe, right? Right?

        BBC yesterday had an article quoting folks in the PRC saying they will sell all of their toys to the Middle East and LatAm.

        Sure thing!

          1. That reminds me of Tonka trucks and vehicles played with by my sons growing up (2 sons One now 58, one 54). I later purchased vintage Made in USA Tonka vehicles for my grandsons from EBay in the 2000s. The cost was high but I wanted some continuity and pass some knowledge about what was once a country that made quality things right here using American workers.

    1. “played down any evidence of hardship, reiterating their confidence that this year’s growth target of around 5% will be reached”

      Muh Central Planning Economy can only fail, there is no option besides failure. See also: the book Red Famine to learn how well that worked out in Ukrainistan in 1932.

  11. Kissimmee realtor gets nearly 3 years in prison for bank fraud

    A Kissimmee realtor who pleaded guilty to several counts of bank fraud will spend over two and a half years in federal prison.

    On Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Wendy W. Berger sentenced 48-year-old Maria Del Carmen Montes to 33 months’ imprisonment for bank fraud. She had entered a guilty plea in January of 2024.

    Montes and her husband, 47-year-old Carlos Ferrer, were indicted by a grand jury on multiple counts of conspiracy, bank fraud, and identity theft in July of 2022.

    According to court records, Montes and Ferrer conspired and executed a mortgage fraud scheme that targeted financial institutions.

    Montes created fictitious and fraudulent paystubs and IRS Form W-2s in the names of companies for whom her clients had never worked to ensure that unqualified borrowers she was representing were approved for mortgage loans.

    The documents falsely indicated that her clients had worked at companies formed and controlled in part by Ferrer.

    According to her plea agreement, Montes admitted to using her clients’ personally identifying information on the forged documents without their knowledge or authorization.

    Additionally, Montes and Ferrer recruited a co-conspirator working at a company to certify Verifications of Employment sent by the financial institutions and instructed the co-conspirator to lie to the institutions when they called to verify employment.

    Based on Montes’ and Ferrer’s misrepresentations, the financial institutions approved and funded multiple mortgage loans. In August of 2024, Ferrer was sentenced to four months in federal prison, followed by three years of supervised release, for his role in the bank fraud scheme.

    https://www.orlando-news.com/2025/04/30/kissimmee-realtor-gets-nearly-3-years-in-prison-for-bank-fraud/

  12. Brookfield Hands 4.6M SF Houston Office Campus To Lender

    Brookfield Properties has handed over Houston’s largest office complex to its mezzanine lender and a Houston-based value preservation team after seven years of ownership.

    Stream Realty Partners announced Wednesday that it had completed an ownership transfer of the four-building, 4.6M SF Houston Center campus to a joint venture between itself and pension fund AustralianSuper.

    AustralianSuper wrote Brookfield a $219M mezzanine loan for its purchase of Houston Center in December 2017, according to Private Debt Investor.

    “We’ve structured a mutually beneficial deal and are confident the new owners will be strong stewards of the complex,” a Brookfield spokesman said in a statement to Bisnow.

    Canada-based Brookfield acquired the four skyscrapers and the 200K SF retail center, then called the Shops at Houston Center, for $875M in 2017, with plans for a major overhaul. Brookfield in 2023 completed the redevelopment to modernize the buildings built in the 1970s and 1980s.

    Stream Realty’s value preservation advisory team will now oversee the massive complex’s management, leasing and construction, the company said. Stream launched the team in August to help “preserve value and mitigate loss for lenders and stakeholders that require additional resources for dealing with challenging situations.”

    https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/office/brookfield-hands-46m-sf-houston-center-office-campus-over-to-lender-129180

  13. With Troubles Piling Up, LA’s Hotels Are Fighting To Stay Alive Through ’25

    A minimum wage hike for Los Angeles hospitality workers looms as the city’s tourism industry prepares to host a nonstop roster of high-profile international sporting events.

    With the city still reeling from January’s devastating fires and persistently depressed tourism, many in the hotel industry are concerned the hotel landscape may be lacking come kickoff.

    “All of the estimates going into this year did predict that there would be modest growth,” Hotel Association of Los Angeles President and CEO Jackie Filla said. “Then we moved into the new year, and it was sort of just kind of one thing after another.”

    Earlier this month, Los Angeles International Airport fell out of the world’s top 10 busiest airports by passenger traffic, the Los Angeles Times reported.

    “We’re among the worst recovered airports in the country for passenger traffic, and now we’re seeing that performance actually worsen,” Los Angeles World Airports CEO John Ackerman said earlier this month during a board of commissioners meeting.

    International traveler numbers are unlikely to rebound soon, given the “growing wave of negative sentiment toward the US among potential international travelers,” according to a national March report from Tourism Economics.

    In the worst-case scenario, more closures could be on the way, Filla said, citing at least 20 hotels that are on a default watchlist for major loans attached to their properties.

    “You’re not going to see a lot of investment in those hotels. You’re not going to see much of any hiring in those hotels,” Filla said.

    The city’s tourism industry is “hanging on by a thread,” LA City Councilmember Traci Park told the crowd. Industry leaders have pointed to the minimum wage increase as yet another hurdle for the still-rebounding hotel business.

    But those working in the hotels themselves don’t seem as concerned as ownership associations and elected officials. Kurt Petersen, co-president of Unite Here Local 11, an LA union that represents many workers in hotels across LA and the greater LA region, expressed concern that hotel owners and operators are magnifying the challenges facing the industry in an attempt to tank the minimum wage increase ordinance.

    “The sky is always falling for this industry,” Petersen said.

    https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news/hotel/los-angeles-hotels-tourism-megaevents-international-tourists-leisure-travel-129185

  14. Distress In D.C. Restaurant Industry Has Landlords Offering Better Deals

    D.C. is one of the country’s most diverse and celebrated culinary destinations in the country, home to 26 Michelin-starred restaurants and a magnate for famous chefs from around the world.

    But the city’s more than 2,600 restaurants have hit a moment of distress.

    Over the past month, multiple D.C. culinary mainstays announced they would be closing, including Michelin-starred Tail Up Goat in Adams Morgan, American gastropub Brookland’s Finest, H Street Asian fusion eatery Sticky Rice and Penn Quarter barbeque institution Hill Country.

    Last year, 101 D.C. restaurant and tavern licenses were canceled, according to the city’s Alcohol Beverage and Cannabis Association, up from 64 licenses canceled in 2023.

    A Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington survey of 200 casual full-service restaurants between January and February found that 11% of those restaurants said they were “very likely” to close, while 33% said they were “somewhat likely.”

    “It’s all about survival,” RAMW President Shawn Townsend told Bisnow. “If they didn’t close today, they made it through today, and tomorrow’s another. It’s just that severe right now.”

    The distress, which has been widely reported, is arising from a compilation of factors, including national pressures like inflation and pandemic-induced consumer behavior shifts, and local factors like D.C.’s new tipped minimum wage law and cuts to the federal workforce.

    ‘“Landlords are definitely more flexible today than they have been,” Papadopoulos Properties President Tom Papadopoulos said. “It’s almost compared to the Covid period, where landlords were concerned about leasing their spaces and they were pretty aggressive on deals, and today they’re still pretty aggressive.”

    Tom Tsiplakos, founder of For Five Coffee Roasters, opened Bar Angie this month at 2300 N. St. NW, an office building where the Aspen Institute is headquartered. He is also behind Dupont Greek restaurant Balos.

    His newest restaurants are still benefiting from the Covid-era hangover effect, where office landlords push hard to get food and beverage into their ground floors. As he has built up more of a rapport, he’s been able to get better deals.

    “Because of our track record with For Five, landlords have been willing to make fair deals with us again,” he said. “They’re not giving the places away, but they’re trying as best they can to underwrite in a way that helps with the costs or portion of the cost of construction.”

    https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/retail/landlords-reaching-further-for-restaurant-tenants-amid-a-moment-of-distress-for-the-industry-129106

  15. Biotech Real Estate Behemoth ARE Stumbles Amid Broad Market Uncertainties

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities posted an $11.6M net loss in the first quarter, demonstrating how the sluggish life sciences leasing market has impacted even the sector’s biggest property owners.

    One year ago, the company posted net income of nearly $167M.

    Chairman Joel Marcus put it succinctly during his company’s earnings call Tuesday: “These are perceived by many as the worst of times.”

    Oversupply and demand dampened by a pullback in venture capital have plagued biotech landlords for more than a year, causing steep increases in vacancy in even the top life sciences markets. New federal cuts to institutions that provide crucial research and development funding have added another challenge.

    Last year, life sciences companies gave back 2M SF, according to Colliers data, and nearly half the main life sciences markets nationwide had negative net absorption. Vacancy rates continued to rise in major markets in Q1, including 30% in San Francisco and 25% in greater Boston, according to CBRE data.

    At ARE’s properties, occupancy sat at 91.7% as of March 31, nearly a 3% drop from the end of 2024. ARE changed its guidance for the rest of the year, noting in a recent financial statement that it experienced “slower than anticipated re-leasing of expiring spaces and lease-up of vacancy in our operating portfolio and our development and redevelopment pipeline.”

    In an example of how Trump administration policies have collided with biotech real estate, Harvard University’s School of Public Health announced it would pull out of a lease at a Boston-area ARE building earlier this month as part of a downsizing effort brought on by its legal battle with the federal government.

    “Activity for this leasing segment, typically driven by expansion requirements, remains muted for the moment, due to continued conservatism by life science companies and boards,” CEO Peter Moglia said on the call.

    The company also has plans to sell an additional $1.3B by the end of the year to help handle capital expenses. Marcus noted that many of the sales have been from the REIT’s land bank, often selling assets that wouldn’t work for the megacampus strategy to residential developers.

    One ARE sale in San Diego, a $124M deal for the Costa Verde Center, showcases the strategy in play. ARE had planned to turn the space into a megacampus, but instead sold for a $1M loss, with a new grant deed forbidding the new owner from using any part for life sciences, The San Diego Union-Tribune reported.

    https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/life-sciences/biotech-real-estate-behemoth-are-stumbles-amid-broad-market-uncertainties-129168

  16. Investors Start To Pounce On What’s Left In Houston’s Hot Office Investment Sales Market

    One brokerage saw half as many Houston office investment sales in the first quarter of 2025 as it did in all of 2024, indicating a prediction early this year that the city would triple sales dollar volume in 2025 could prove true.

    JLL closed 21 office building sales last year versus nine in Q1 2025 alone, according to Marty Hogan, managing director in the Houston office of JLL Capital Marketing Americas.

    As developers exit investments, distress causes forced sales, and a diminished construction pipeline limits supply, Houston’s office investment sales market is seeing plenty of action, and investors are scrambling for what they can get.

    Some of the first quarter’s deals were carryovers from last year, but the type of office product now on the market suggests dollar volume will surge this year, Hogan said.

    “We’re absolutely seeing that play out,” he said. “We’ve got a number of larger deals in our pipeline that are in the market right now.”

    JLL has also listed Nine Ninety, an office building at the entrance to the CityCentre mixed-use development. Hines developed the office in 2022 for Marathon Oil Corp., which was acquired by ConocoPhillips last year.

    “They’re moving out,” Hogan said. “And so we are selling it. It’s a 450K SF office building … a brand-new, kick-ass, unbelievable building that will be vacant.”

    https://www.bisnow.com/houston/news/investment/investors-start-to-take-whats-left-in-houstons-hot-office-investment-sales-market-129160

  17. Leafy suburbs property prices drop on Trump budget cuts effect

    Property prices in Westlands have dropped the most in the last year in the latest index by real estate firm HassConsult, as the effects of the radical trade policies by US President Donald Trump start showing in the sector.

    This is as satellite towns, such as Juja, gained at the expense of leafy suburbs associated with diplomatic tenants, United Nations Staff and workers in high-end non-governmental organisations like Gigiri, which recorded a drop in property asking prices.

    However, apartment prices in Westlands dropped 13.3 per cent in the last year and 6.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

    This is the highest drop in property prices as recorded by HassConsult, with prices in Muthangari cooling off by 11.6 per cent and 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, while Upperhill also went down 11.1 per cent in the year and 6.3 per cent in the quarter.

    The drop in property prices has been linked to the macroeconomic conditions, which are shrouded in uncertainty that has trickled down to the Kenyan market.

    For instance, HassConsult explains, the US commercial real estate sentiment dropped by 30.5 per cent in Q1 2025, while in Australia, investment lending rose by 18 per cent amid expectations of rate cuts and market volatility.

    “Locally, in the pricier city suburbs, the fall in asking prices revealed concerns about a fall in demand after the US cut off funding for its USAID programme and its affiliated programmes in Kenya. This action has led to mass layoffs, which affect the target market for the higher-end rental segment,” HassConsult explains in the report.

    https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001517832/leafy-suburbs-property-prices-drop-on-trump-budget-cuts-effect

    1. So wait, Trump cuts USAID money, which in turn hurts the high-end rentals in Kenya?

      I was told that USAID money went toward sending bags of yellow rice to starving children in Save-the-Children-type sh!thole towns, but nope, it appears to be lining the pockets of luxury builders in Nairobi. Do I have that right?

      1. “…Do I have that right?…”

        Have read many articles over the years [cannot remember / cite exact references] that a large fraction of USAID never reaches intended recipients.

        Is there *any* accountability in these “aid” organizations?

        If it is not 100% corrupt, then the actual numbers must be pretty close.

        1. When the government places a contract, there’s someone* who keeps tab on that contract. They interface with the contractor, keep tabs on the deliverables, and sometimes inspects the services provided. They review monthly invoices and approve montly payments from the Treasury. But when they give money to an NGO, it looks like there’s no deliverables and nobody keeping track. They just send a check and say “We trust you, go forth and do good.” Geezus.

          ———–
          *The official job title is Contracting Officer’s Representative, or COR.

          1. You sound as if you believe that government CORs actually do these things diligently and professionally while looking out for the best interests of the American people? What percentage of them actually do perform like this?
            DOGE results do not support this conclusion generally speaking.

  18. Buyer’s Remorse Hits Finance Bosses Who ‘Overhired’ for ESG

    There’s a course-correction underway among financial firms that went all out on ESG hiring just a few years back, according to recruiters advising banks and money managers.

    Firms have had to acknowledge that the goal of generating the highest profits often “isn’t aligned with the social and environmental aspirations of the types of people they hired,” says Tom Strelczak, a London-based partner focused on sustainability at Madison Hunt, where he oversees the firm’s European business.

    After having “overhired in a very evangelical and philosophical way,” many financial companies are now avoiding some of the ESG (environmental, social and governance) profiles they targeted just a few years ago, he said in an interview.

    The pandemic-era, zero interest-rate environment in which ESG enjoyed its heyday drove a hiring boom across the finance industry less than half a decade ago. However, that sense of exuberance around ESG quickly faded when interest rates started to rise and green investment returns faltered.

    In the US, the Republican Party seized on the moment to launch a full-scale attack on ESG, characterizing it as a “woke” perversion of capitalism. The political backlash — which intensified after Donald Trump’s return to the White House — sent a chill through the US finance industry, where labels like ESG and DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) are rapidly being jettisoned.

    Only a quarter of S&P 100 companies published reports with “ESG” in the title last year, down from a peak of 40% in 2023, according to data provided by the Conference Board. So far in 2025, with nearly half of companies having reported, just 6% have used the term.

    In Europe, where ESG regulations are far more entrenched, the backlash has been less pronounced and more centered on implementation. But amid concerns that excessive ESG requirements were harming competitiveness in the bloc, European policymakers have agreed to wind back key planks of ESG corporate reporting requirements.

    The upshot is a broad-based retreat from the environmental and social principles that initially led financial firms to look for hires outside their usual stomping grounds. As a result, many of the climate scientists and campaigners from nonprofits who were hand-picked by financial firms just a few years back are now struggling to adapt to their employers’ renewed focus on financial profits, Strelczak said.

    They’re often “frustrated and disillusioned,” he said.

    On Wall Street, which has turned its back on net zero alliances, firms are dropping “ESG” from job titles. And globally, less than 7% of people who took on an ESG role in 2020 still retain an ESG title today, according to figures provided by Live Data Technologies.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buyer-remorse-hits-finance-bosses-190000257.html

  19. The Effects of Trump and DOGE on the People of Santa Barbara

    In the blink of an eye, Donald Trump and his friends at DOGE have dramatically reshaped our federal government through mass layoffs and scorched-earth funding cuts.

    While the Santa Barbara Independent continues to cover how these actions are impacting local agencies and institutions that rely on federal support, we’re also asking our readers to share how they are affecting them as individuals, both professionally and personally.

    The freeze on my student loan has been removed. Having my wages garnished will significantly impact my ability to afford living. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Downtown

    Our 401Ks have decreased dramatically because of Trump’s ridiculous, chaotic tariff threats. ― P. Mills, Santa Ynez

    We took a direct hit on our retirement accounts ― 30 percent reduction in revenue in his first 100 days from our IRA. ― Anonymous, Goleta

    Two of our sons own businesses, whose goods are imported from China, and they are very concerned that their products will become unaffordable. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Cathedral Oaks

    UCSB’s immediate hiring freeze, scramble to wind down ongoing research projects, and lack of ideas on how to make up for the withdrawal of federal funding. ― Harold Marcuse, Goleta

    I work at UCSB and am seeing daily how the cruel and sudden cancelation of student visas is impacting the international student population. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara

    Working in local schools, I have witnessed fear and kids even not attending class. Events to celebrate specific ethnic groups at a family member’s workplace have also been canceled. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Mesa

    I’m noticing higher prices at small businesses who fear tariffs will raise their costs. Nonprofits I work with having to cut programs because of DOGE slashing their funding. Increase in hostility from those who voted for this administration, as if they now have free rein to act out in unmitigated, sneering hate. Dear friends of over three decades of residency in Santa Barbara — friends who contribute to our economy by paying taxes and doing essential work that others deem too “low-class” — are now afraid to leave their homes because of ICE. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Eucalyptus Hill

    More protests. I’m surprised how people go out of their way on such beautiful days in such a beautiful city just to complain and ruin everyone else’s day. Republicans never protested; they just took it and realized Biden was in office for the last four years. ― Anonymous, Goleta

    We’ve come to rely on federal spending too much. There is a lot of complaining and shouting. California collects plenty of taxes but spends with poor accountability. Santa Barbara is also in this camp. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara

    My children are planning to leave the U.S., and my blood pressure has soared. ― Barbara Ruh, Santa Barbara

    I was born into a country occupied by the Nazis. Our family had to flee and thus became refugees. When we were able to return to Denmark, we felt with all kinds of rationing of basic goods. Needless to say, the current atmosphere in this country where I am an immigrant has caused a huge amount of fear, anxiety, and depression. And not just for me but family, friends, and neighbors as well. ― Anonymous, New Cuyama

    I’m concerned that the protest culture in Santa Barbara has diminished our quality of life by promoting division and intolerance of diversity of thought. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara

    Immigration has been an issue for most of my lifetime, and I am 76 years old. Since the end of the Bracero program in the late ’50s/early ’60s, there has been no effective immigration/work visa system in place by any federal government, Republican or Democratic. … Grabbing people off the street is NOT saving the American people any money or reducing crime. It is only removing brave, productive people who were strong enough to leave a bad situation and try for a better life. Our country has done this to the Irish, the Italians, the Chinese, the Japanese, and now anyone from Mexico or South America. My heart is breaking. ― Kathleen Rodriguez, Santa Barbara

    My largest concern is immigration. If you are here legally, I’m all for it. Otherwise, I believe you need to return to your country of origin. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara

    https://www.independent.com/2025/04/30/the-effects-of-trump-and-doge-on-the-people-of-santa-barbara/

    1. The freeze on my student loan has been removed. Having my wages garnished will significantly impact my ability to afford living. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Downtown

      Cry me a river, deadbeat. Taxpayers should never have been put on the hook to fund your “education” in the first place.

      1. No Francis, you have it all wrong, They are entitled to a free education, free that is to them, and paid for by you and I.

    2. Grabbing people off the street is NOT saving the American people any money or reducing crime.

      We’re going to chance it and see.

    3. Two of our sons own businesses, whose goods are imported from China, and they are very concerned that their products will become unaffordable. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Cathedral Oaks

      Good. The sooner your sons are forced to stop importing cheap Chinese-made crap that undercuts domestic manufacturers, the better.

    4. Events to celebrate specific ethnic groups at a family member’s workplace have also been canceled.

      Good. This is exactly what I voted for.

    5. “cruel and sudden cancelation of student visas”

      Cry me a another river. If someone yanks your visa, it’s because you did something.

    6. Our 401Ks have decreased dramatically because of Trump’s ridiculous, chaotic tariff threats. ― P. Mills, Santa Ynez

      Meh. It was only Yellen Bux. Fake “wealth” created by fake money was never sustainable in the long run.

      1. Our 401Ks have decreased dramatically because of Trump’s ridiculous, chaotic tariff threats.
        This is mostly cr@p. YTD thru 5/1 the Vanguard S&P500 is down 4.94% and short term treasury Up 2.41%. With a 50/50 split you are down a whooping 1.27% on average. If you can’t handle at a minimum, a 10% down draft, you should not be anywhere near the stock market. So either this person had huge risk/leverage in the portfolio (most likely not) or they are just blaming Trump because, it’s the “fun” thing to do.

    7. Dear friends of over three decades of residency in Santa Barbara — friends who contribute to our economy by paying taxes and doing essential work that others deem too “low-class” — are now afraid to leave their homes because of ICE. ― Anonymous, Santa Barbara, Eucalyptus Hill

      It’s not because the jobs are ‘low class’, it’s because illegals are not required to pay insurance and taxes, which brings down the wages. Must be sad to lose your slaves, loser.

      1. Must be sad to lose your slaves, loser.

        Always the party of overlords, for centuries. Going back to the Cavaliers of the American Civil War and back to the Aristocracy of the British Civil War.

  20. He is gutting and repairing the house not for himself, but for a future buyer. ‘It blew out the windows in the front. It blew out these doors,’ he said, pointing to the damage.

    Those future buyers will Shirley be lined up around the block for a change to bid on a shack guaranteed to sustain massive damage during future hurricanes and floods.

  21. Ford CEO Farley says industry needs more tariff help, urges rivals to build U.S. plants

    Louisville, Ky. — Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley said Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s actions this week to scale back auto tariffs will ease the burden on automakers, suppliers and consumers, but that the industry needs more relief to be “healthy and growing.”

    “We are not there yet,” he said during an event at Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville marking the launch of the fifth-generation Ford Expedition full-size SUV.

    But Farley touted Ford’s strong positioning: 80% of its vehicles for sale in the United States are built in its home country. He issued a veiled challenge to Ford’s rivals, including General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV, to match his company’s level of domestic output. If other automakers reached Ford’s U.S. production levels, he said, there would be another 15 assembly plants, 4 million more vehicles produced and half a million more manufacturing jobs in the United States.

    “We must keep working until those 15 new assembly plants are built in our country by our competitors,” he said. “That’s hundreds of billions (of dollars). Or will it be we absorb it (the tariffs), and our government helps us, or do we pass on the price onto the customers and the industry shrinks?”

    “In the last case,” he continued, “Ford wins, because we won’t have the same tariff exposure because of our localization, and we’ll be able to order more product.”

    Trump, at a rally in Warren, said he planned to offer the “partial tariff rebates” for about two years to companies that assemble cars in the U.S. The president said the new rebates would provide a “little bit of a flexibility.”

    “We give them a little bit of time before we slaughter them if they don’t do this,” said Trump, referring to his hope that tariffs will lead to manufacturers shifting their operations to the U.S.

    He additionally signed a proclamation that allows automakers manufacturing in the United States to partially offset duties on auto parts for the next two years.

    Ford says 75% to 80% of the content on its vehicles is from the United States or is USMCA-compliant.

    “There are a lot cheaper places to do business,” Farley said. “No doubt about it, but that is not who we are as a company. We never left America.”

    A National Highway Traffic Safety Administration American Automobile Labeling Act report says the Wayne-built Ford Ranger has 46% U.S. and Canadian content, the highest of Ford’s vehicles. The Mexico-built Mustang Mach-E has the highest North American content at 91%, with 78% Mexican content.

    The 2025 Expedition sources 42% of its content from the United States and Canada and 22% from Mexico. That’s 64% from the North American countries. More than 360 U.S. suppliers in 30 states contributed to the new Expedition.

    That’s a point of pride for workers like Charlotte Hayden, a 27-year Ford employee and vehicle quality inspector at Kentucky Truck: “As a consumer, I’m worried about tariffs,” she said, “but not as an autoworker. It employs a lot of people. That’s important.”

    Kentucky Truck is one of Ford’s largest plants, also producing the Lincoln Navigator SUV and Super Duty pickups. The plant employs roughly 9,000 people, including 8,200 hourly workers. In 2023, during the United Auto Workers’ strike, Ford disclosed that the plant represented about one-sixth of its annual revenues, generating approximately $25 billion each year.

    Farley described the plant’s revenue as being more than that produced by Southwest Airlines Co.

    “Our country cannot afford to lose the ability to build things,” he said. “When our country asked for Ford’s help in world wars and pandemics, Ford always quickly pivoted. We made the tanks and the bombers and the masks and the ventilators and the shields. We even helped build for Mission Control in Houston to win the race to the moon.”

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2025/04/30/ford-launches-5th-gen-expedition-into-a-fluid-tariff-environment/83342832007/

  22. “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, as of Thursday, has ended a new mortgage-rescue program that so far has helped about 20,000 veterans avoid foreclosure and keep their homes.

    Veterans may be “heroes” but that doesn’t absolve them of culpability & consequences for financial irresponsibility & mismanagement.

    1. And IIRC, aren’t the vets allowed to buy more than one house using these low-down low-interest loans as leverage? I remember rumors about that.

      1. Yes. And they were claiming both as primary residence. Results are musical chairs. Some cashed out some will get washed out.

  23. ‘The level of just mistrust I have — I mean, I get they’re trying to cut spending and all that, but it’s like, how do you justify cutting something that is to help the vets who were basically put in this position because of you?’ Conlon said.”

    Wut? How did your financial irresponsibility become my fault? Or problem?

    1. How did your financial irresponsibility become my fault? Or problem?
      Come on, Get with the program. Other people’s money is always the answer to any and all problems.

  24. And that’s what I did.’ Like many others, the Church family were not fully insured — never imagining fire would be the disaster to hit them on the coast of the city.

    Gosh, who knew that bums lighting fires, a DEI fire department, and a clueless “woke” mayor would ever result in a wildfire burning much of tinder-dry LA neighborhoods to the ground?

  25. To make matters worse, the builders then became competitors by selling their remaining inventory in the same subdivisions at lower prices. That in turn led to appraisals that came in at $1.1-million or $1.2-million compared with the $1.4-million some purchasers had agreed to pay a few years earlier.

    Few things are as schadenfreude-inducing as seeing housing speculators get thrown under the bus by the same builders who sold them overpriced condos or shacks during the scamdemic-era FOMO mania.

  26. Blue-ribbon Toorak experienced a deep yearly fall, dropping by 26.7 per cent to a median house price of $4.25 million, Domain figures from the 12 months to March show.

    Remind me again: what’s the median income in Blue-ribbon Toorrak?

  27. Fortune – A record number of Americans are only making their minimum credit card payment.

    https://archive.ph/A7qMz

    Over 11% of Americans with accounts at the country’s largest banks only made the minimum payment on their credit card bill in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record since the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began tracking the number 12 years ago.
    Lower-income consumers have been under increasing pressure since inflation surged to four-decade highs following the pandemic, and price hikes from tariffs will further strain budgets.

    Credit-card data shows consumers are under increasing pressure, just as President Donald Trump’s tariffs are poised to significantly raise costs on everyday consumers. Over 11% of Americans with accounts at the country’s largest banks only made the minimum payment on their credit-card bills in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record since the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia began tracking the number 12 years ago.

    The Philly Fed’s data, published earlier this month, was highlighted over the weekend by Torsten Sløk, chief economist at private-equity giant Apollo. A report from the firm coauthored by Sløk said trade disruptions, particularly between the U.S. and China, could cause a full-on recession by the summer. A growing number of consumers are already vulnerable as delinquency rates rise: The share of credit-card accounts 90 days past due also set a record.
    “Collectively, these trends, along with a new series high for revolving card balances, indicate greater consumer stress,” Philly Fed analysts Jeremy Cohn and Brandon Goldstein wrote.

    [A chart appears here …]

    Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, believes a downturn is imminent if the Fed does not cut interest rates. Along with boosting overall economic activity, that would also make it easier for people to pay off their credit-card debt.

    “So you’re seeing kind of the normal rotation,” he told Fortune. “Investment spending drops. Labor market weakens up. Consumers spend less.”

    Still, people likely won’t cut back astronomically, he said, even in a recession. After all, if more Americans are struggling to pay off their entire balance, it means they are still buying.

    “Usually what we say is that consumers consume just like woodchucks chuck wood,” said Hatfield, who manages ETFs and a series of hedge funds.

    “What we mean by that is that they’re extremely resilient,” he added. “The low end has to spend money, and the high end wants to spend money and can spend money.”

    To be sure, seasonal changes are part of the story: Credit-card debt levels always rise amid holiday shopping. The data does emphasize, however, how economic developments over the last half decade have impacted high earners and lower-income individuals much differently.

    One example is credit access. The Philly Fed found firms gave the 90th percentile of borrowers their third-largest boost to card limits over the last 12 years. For the 50th percentile, however, card limits stayed level at an average of $5,000, a contraction in real terms due to inflation. A similar trend has played out with mortgages, with the 90th percentile of loans on bank balance sheets growing twice as fast as the median since the final quarter of 2019.

    For wealthy people, Hatfield said, post-pandemic inflation boosted home values and was easily outpaced by investment gains from a booming stock market. Lower-income consumers, however, have been forced to weather a significant increase in the cost of living as interest rates remain elevated.

    “A huge part of society, they didn’t benefit from that inflation,” Hatfield said. “They got hammered by it.”

    Tariff worries hang over consumers:

    Discontent over this situation has been widely credited for helping Trump land a second stint in the Oval Office. His fixation on using tariffs to reorient global trade and raise a growing share of America’s revenues, however, may ultimately not sit well with people most exposed to higher prices.

    The Yale Budget Lab estimates Trump’s announced tariffs, as of April 15, will cost the average household $4,900 in last year’s dollars. Tariffs are a type of “regressive tax,” which take a bigger chunk out of the budget from poorer households than from wealthier consumers who pay the same rate.

    “It is going to put further pressure on low-income consumers, put the U.S. economy further at risk, and could eventually lead to a recession,” Hatfield said.

    On Sunday, Trump suggested tariff income could replace income taxes on households making less than $200,000 a year. Economists and tax-policy experts, including at the center-right Tax Foundation, have said that would be impossible.

    The White House did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

    The chaotic rollout of tariffs has caused consumer sentiment to drop by more in three months than at any point since 1990, including the 2008 financial crisis. Year-end inflation expectations, meanwhile, came in highest since 1981, when price increases were just beginning to retreat after a ruinous spike.

    Executives from the likes of Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, and PepsiCo, meanwhile, have warned their businesses are already feeling the effects of people cutting back. After all, a growing number of consumers are struggling to pay off their credit-card bills.

    1. Americans will be forced to cut back when their cards are shut off and when the availability of cheap Chinese crap from China disappears off the shelf in several weeks…. However, Chinese junk does seem a little cheaper these days before the massive tariffs kick in. Anecdotally, my local Wal-Mart seemed to be relatively cheaper than it used to be. I expected several items I purchased to be more expensive than they were, and I was pleasantly surprised. Not that I need one but they are practically giving away TV’s It’s $118 for a 4k 42″ TV. I’m sure it’s not a great TV but my first 42″ flat screen tv 18 years ago cost $1,200. I still have that tv actually, I had to repair several components on it, but it sits in my garage and I watch football games on it in the fall so I can drink beer and be sort of outside.

      1. When their cards are shut off, they will just move on to buy-now-pay-later schemes.

        Visiting Walmarts is practically a hobby of mine, and I haven’t noticed any decrease in stock on the shelves. But 47 is right… we are far too dependent on other countries. The other day I bought a pound of sliced frozen bell peppers in the grocery store. Bag was stamped “Product of Spain.” Spain??!? I was told that we needed to trade with other countries for coffee or avocados or raspberries in January. But it seems we can’t grow bell peppers in the summer in the US, even with all of our vaunted cheap immigrant labor. Wtf

  28. Domain’s latest House Price Report also showed steep median reductions in highly sought Mornington Peninsula enclaves of Sorrento ($1.75 million, down 23.9 per cent) and Blairgowrie ($1.34 million, a fall of 15.7 per cent).”

    Even applying muh common core maff skills, I can’t work out how this is building muh generational wealth.

  29. Many investors I work with feel things like: ‘I’m stuck in this property … I’ve lost so much money … I don’t know what I’m doing. This was supposed to be a safe investment – what went wrong?’

    It would take a heart of stone to see these housing speculators deeply upside down on their “investments,” and not laugh.

  30. But then: Our two properties dropped in value by $500,000. The cashflow tanked and we had to put in over $1,500 a week (across 4 properties) of our own money. One of our other properties suffered a rent fall from $730 to $650 a week. So when things started to slide, I felt like I’d failed – not just financially, but in our relationship.

    Must.not.laugh.

  31. But I’ve had dozens of clients reach out in the past year – angry, confused and ashamed. They say: ‘I feel stuck. I’ve lost so much. I don’t know what I’m doing.’

    Die, speculator scum. Your greed and recklessness made decent housing unaffordable for the prudent and cautious. Now you get to sit down to a banquet of consequences. May you be cautionary tales for a generation to come.

  32. Algoma Steel CEO asks Carney to ‘immediately engage’ with Trump on steel tariffs

    Algoma Steel Group chief executive Michael Garcia is appealing to Prime Minister Mark Carney to “immediately engage” with the Trump administration about dropping punishing tariffs on imports of Canadian steel.

    Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.-based Algoma is under significant strain owing to the 25-per-cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on March 12.

    The Canadian steelmaker is directly bearing the costs of the tariffs because it is importer of record in the United States, and it has largely been unable to pass on the costs to its customers. The little under three weeks the company was subject to the tariffs during the first quarter cost it $10.5-million. The U.S. market accounts for about half of Algoma’s revenue.

    Algoma is the only producer of steel plate in Canada, but steel mills in Turkey, Taiwan, Italy, France and Korea dump product into the domestic market, according to Mr. Garcia.

    He urged Mr. Carney in their meeting “to take action to protect the Canadian domestic steel market from unfair, foreign-traded steel.”

    Mr. Garcia also wants Mr. Carney to make good on his proposal to levy a carbon tax on foreign steel imports, similar to the industrial carbon tax that Algoma itself is subject to in Canada.

    Mr. Carney last Friday said he intends to introduce a carbon border adjustment to ensure Canadian steelmakers are not undercut by imports from producers in jurisdictions with lower environmental standards.

    “If foreign steel is being sold in Canada, and produced in a country with no carbon tax, which basically would be almost every country in the world, except a handful of countries in Europe, then that steel should be taxed on its carbon content as it crosses into Canada,” Mr. Garcia said.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-algoma-steel-electric-furnace-technology-delay/

  33. United Nations refugee agency closes 4 offices in Mexico due to US funding cuts

    The United Nations refugee agency has shuttered four offices in Mexico and laid off 190 employees amid a severe funding crisis tied to U.S. aid cuts under President Donald Trump, officials announced this week.

    The closures mark a dramatic setback for migrant support systems in a country that processed nearly 80,000 asylum claims in 2024, ranking among the world’s top 10 destinations for refugees.

    The majority of applicants were from Cuba, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras and Venezuela.

    According to Giovanni Lepri, the representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Mexico, UNHCR’s Mexico operations lost 60% of their budget after the Trump administration halted foreign aid in January.

    “We’ve had to make very serious decisions,” Lepri told reporters, noting the U.S. previously supplied 86% of UNHCR Mexico’s US $58 million annual budget.

    Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order paused all U.S. foreign assistance — funded through the State Department and/or the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) — for comprehensive reviews.

    This resulted in the suspension or termination of most USAID programs, with reports indicating that over 90% of USAID’s foreign aid contracts were eliminated, amounting to $54 million to $60 million of global cuts.

    In fiscal year 2022, USAID funded $21.4 billion of programming through the U.N. and other international organizations, which includes support for UNHCR. In 2024, the United States contributed $2.1 billion to UNHCR.

    The reduction of funding from USAID and other U.S. government foreign assistance streams has cut into Mexico’s asylum infrastructure.

    Migrant shelters run by Catholic groups saw funding drop sharply, forcing reduced services, said Scalabrini Foundation director Julio Lopez. “Programs and projects have been scaled back,” he acknowledged, though shelters remain open.

    In Tijuana, Juventud 2000 shelter director Jose Maria Garcia warned the closures would “have a very big impact on migrant communities,” particularly in border regions where deportations surged.

    Mexico’s already-strained asylum system faces mounting pressure. Despite a 40% drop in applications from 2023’s record 140,000 claims, more than 78,900 people sought refuge last year. Over half had fled violence or threats, per UNHCR’s 2024 report, “A Home in Mexico,” issued this week.

    “Mexico has become a country where people forced to flee can restart their lives,” Lepri said in the report, released hours before announcing the closures.

    https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/unhcr-reduces-mexico-operations-funding-cuts/

    1. noting the U.S. previously supplied 86% of UNHCR Mexico’s US $58 million annual budget.
      Why are we paying 86% of THEIR annual budget. I might be ok with 6%, at max, but realistically why are we paying anything at all? Remember we are $36.795 Trillion in debt or 323,000+ per tax payer as of 5/1/2025. (US Debt clock data)

    1. Great Read. I had to look up Snuff Films.
      The fact checkurs say this.
      “Snuff films are movies involving the deaths of others made for profit, but they are not believed to exist.”
      There ya go, just like the jab, safe and effective.

      1. “I had to look up Snuff Films.”

        You should search for gay amputee porn if ‘ya want to see something waaay-out past the last bus stop!

  34. Immigrants working legally in the Texas Panhandle live in limbo under Trump’s crackdown

    The truck driver is cutting his lawn on a windy afternoon, in a town so quiet you can take afternoon walks down the middle of Main Street. Kevenson Jean is leaving the next day for another long haul and wants things neat at the two-bedroom home he shares with his wife in the Texas Panhandle town fittingly called Panhandle. So after mowing he carefully pulls grass from around the flagpoles in his front yard. One holds the Haitian flag, the other American. Both are fading in the sun.

    The young couple, who fled the violence that has engulfed Haiti, thought until a few months ago that they could see the American dream, somewhere in the distance.

    Now they are caught up in the confusion and fear that are rippling through the immigrant communities that dot this region. Newcomers have come here for generations to work in immense meatpacking plants that emerged as the state became the nation’s top cattle producer. But after President Donald Trump moved to end legal pathways that immigrants like the Jeans have used, their future — as well as the future of the communities and industries they are a part of — is uncertain.

    “We are not criminals. We’re not taking American jobs,” said Jean, whose work moving meat and other products doesn’t attract as many U.S.-born drivers as it once did.

    He’s been making more money than he ever imagined. He’s discovered the joys of Bud Light, fishing and the Dallas Cowboys. When she’s not at one of her two food service jobs, his wife, Sherlie, works on her English by reading paperback romances, the covers awash in swooning women.

    The message was blunt.

    “It’s time for you to leave the United States,” the Department of Homeland Security said in an early April email to some immigrants who had legal permission to live in the U.S. “Do not attempt to remain in the United States — the federal government will find you.”

    Jean is among roughly 2 million immigrants living legally in the U.S. on some sort of temporary status. Most have fled deeply troubled countries: Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Sudan. Many are allowed to work in the U.S. and have jobs and pay taxes.

    Jean is sympathetic in ways to the immigration crackdown.

    “The White House, I respect what they say,” he said. “They are working to make America safer.”

    “But I will say not all immigrants are gang members. Not all immigrants are like a criminal. Some of them, just like me and my wife, and other people, they are coming here just to have a better life.”

    “It’s all so confusing,” said Lesvia Mendoza, a 53-year-old special education teacher who came with her husband from Venezuela in 2024, moving in with her son who lives in Amarillo, the Panhandle’s largest city, and who is in the process of getting U.S. citizenship.

    She doesn’t understand why the immigration crackdown affects people like her, who came legally and never received government assistance.

    “I do know that he says, ‘America for the Americans,’” she said. “But all the jobs, all the production that happens because of immigrants? It’s obvious we’re needed.”

    She said she will leave the U.S. if ordered to. Others aren’t so sure. “I really can’t go back,” said a Haitian woman who asked to be identified only as Nicole because she fears deportation. “It’s not even a decision.”

    She works at a meatpacking plant, deboning cattle carcasses for more than $20 an hour. She received Homeland Security’s message, but insists it can’t refer to someone who has followed the laws as she had, pointing to a phrase exempting people who have “otherwise obtained a lawful basis to remain.”

    Sometimes, when the wind is blowing, the acrid smell of the slaughterhouse signals the town’s biggest employer. The meatpacking facility with more than 3,700 workers is owned by JBS, the world’s largest beef producer.

    Nearly half of workers in the meatpacking industry are thought to be foreign-born. The Panhandle plants were originally dominated by Mexicans and Central Americans. They gave way to waves of people fleeing poverty and violence around the world, from Somalia to Cuba.

    After U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement conducted a massive operation at Swift & Co. meatpacking plants in 2006 and detained hundreds of workers, the Cactus slaughterhouse, now owned by JBS, increasingly hired refugees and asylum-seekers with legal permission to live and work in the U.S.

    Pay starts at roughly $23 an hour. English skills aren’t needed, in part because the thunderous noise of the machines often means communication is done with hand signals.

    The sun was barely above the horizon when trucker Kevenson Jean packed a few clothes, zipped up his suitcase and got ready for what he thought would be his final run.

    He and his wife came to the U.S. in 2023, sponsored by a Panhandle family whose small nonprofit employed him to run a school and feeding center for children in rural Haiti.

    The Jeans were supposed to have at least two years to stay and work in the U.S., and hoped to eventually become citizens. But they were told in March that Kevenson’s work permit was ending April 24. An ensuing court order left even many employers unsure if people could keep working.

    Kevenson had gone to trucking school after arriving in the U.S., and fell hard for a Kenilworth. The truck had taken him across immense swaths of America, taught him about snow, the dangers of high winds and truck stop etiquette. His employer owns the truck, but he understands it like no one else.

    “It’s going to be my last week with my baby,” said Jean, his voice filled with sadness.

    He looked miserable as he made his checks: oil, cables, brakes. Eventually, he sat in the driver’s seat took off his baseball cap and prayed, as he always does before setting off. Then he put his hat back on, buckled his seat belt and drove away, heading west on Route 60.

    Days later, he got word that he could keep his job. No one could tell him how long the reprieve would last.

    https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/news/2025/04/30/immigrants-working-legally-in-texas-live-in-limbo-

    1. So much b.s. in that story and they can’t even get the name of the truck right. It’s a ‘Kenworth’ you commie f*cks. It was probably written by some worthless blue haired p.o.s. It’s riddled with inaccuracies and outright lies. The biggest being that he’s not taking anyone’s job. Of course he is and even worse he’s driving down wages and stealing resources from everyone. He probably can’t even read or write let alone speak properly. Absolute tripe. I hope the author is the one that gets run over, raped, robbed, etc. Makes my blood boil.

    1. Canada’s new PM, Mark Carney: “We can’t stabilize climate until we get to ZERO NET emissions”
      They are gonna be praying “FOR” global warming to hurry up and happen in the near future. Maybe as soon as next December.

  35. This is a MSM smackdown.

    DC_Draino
    @DC_Draino

    Stephen Miller just called out legacy media to their faces for defending cartel thugs

    He says if he offered them a rent-free home in a neighborhood with MS-13 members, none of them would take it

    So why should other Americans be forced to deal with that?

    9:49 AM · May 1, 2025
    ·
    https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1917939427227095166

  36. Chris Olivarez
    @LtChrisOlivarez

    MUST WATCH: On 4/12/25, a smuggler fled from
    @TxDPS

    Troopers in Laredo, abandoning 6 illegal immigrants and escaping by swimming across the Rio Grande into Mexico.

    On 4/25/25, that smuggler was identified and arrested at the Laredo port of entry—now facing 6 counts of human smuggling, evading arrest & more.

    https://x.com/LtChrisOlivarez/status/1917564145932644546

  37. ALBERTA ON THE BRINK: Could It Become the 51st STATE?

    GBNews

    4 hours ago

    Neil Oliver and David Krayden discuss how Alberta separatism is gaining momentum and Mark Carney’s net zero policies could push Canada towards economic crisis, with fears of higher taxes and a loss of national identity. Discover why some Canadians believe Alberta could become the 51st US state and how Donald Trump’s surprising support for Carney is fuelling debate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oYpvtvMKLM

    51 minutes. At 8:20: ‘if Alberta separates, the country is gone.There’s no question about it. Because our biggest export in Canada is oil and gas. And if we lose the oil and gas of Alberta, it’s over. But I don’t think Alberta really has a choice if Mark Carney really goes through with his net zero policy.’

  38. ‘It blew out the windows in the front. It blew out these doors,’ he said, pointing to the damage. ‘I’m probably going to spend tens of thousands, but I don’t know what they’re going to give me if I try to sell it like this’

    Yer sitting on a gold mine Glen. Keep in mind that you are the winnah!

  39. ‘Often, they were met by a notary at say a McDonald’s and given limited amount of time to even read the document, no ability to have questions answered, and they were outgunned,’ Weiser said. ‘When you give someone a 15-page legal document and you say, I need you to sign it now to get $300, that’s a unfair thing to do’

    So they were loanowners who went down to mickie dees and signed over their shanty for 300 pesos Steve. That’s sound lending all around.

    1. Sounds like the normal stupid people (who also are allowed to vote).
      We need more laws and regulations to protect them! (NOT)

  40. ‘Within The City itself, the average home was worth around $1.3 million when data was most recently available in March. That’s down 5% from the same month five years ago’

    So all of the minor repository illness has gone. And then some.

  41. ‘Hundreds of hotels, offices buildings, etc across the country have been returned to lenders due to the impact of covid, the slow recovery of certain markets, dramatically higher interest rates today and loan maturities that occur before assets have fully recovered’

    Puddle watchers: ‘there’s real distress.’

  42. ‘In Hamilton, tariff talk halted the momentum that started in the opening weeks of 2025, says Melissa Carrington, real estate agent at Keller Williams Complete Realty. ‘It just died,’ she says. The question became, ‘do I qualify for a passport to where my parents were born?’ In the Hamilton-Burlington area, many more expensive properties have been languishing. ‘We see price reductions happen every week’

    I’m curious if any one knows what she meant by ‘do I qualify for a passport to where my parents were born’.

    1. I had heard about this, and Chat GPT has some more info. It’s called Citizenship by Descent or Citizenship through Ancestry. For example, if you’re American and your parents or grandparents were born in Poland, you might qualify for Polish citizenship. Poland, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Lithuania, have programs for this. Even the US has a mild version. If your parents were American citizens, you are a citizen too.

      Requirements vary by country, and you need a LOT of documentation about you, your parents, your grandparents, marriages, birth certs, etc. So it’s doable.

    1. The Matador
      The 2025 Bear Market
      The Last Bear Standing
      Apr 29, 2025

      In the ancient spectacle of the bullfight (or corrida de toros), the Matador must understand the bull’s nature, anticipate its movements, and recognize the precise moment when its confidence becomes its vulnerability. The corrida is carefully planned and executed, layered into a series of phases that must each be completed skillfully before the killing blow (the estocada).

      The Matador must remain calm, knowing that behind the frenzy is the inevitable exhaustion. And the moment that exhaustion appears, perhaps even before it is known to the bull (who has been in a frenzied attack for hours), the death blow is delivered.

      In markets, like bullfights, the ferocity continues until it absolutely can no longer. If there is a singular task that every bull market in history has accomplished with ruthless efficiency, it is the silencing of contrarian voices by the end of its run. Those with the audacity to have warned of risks before the point of absolute exhaustion end up derided and ignored.

      This effect persists well after prices have begun to crack, and when combined with the lessons of recent successful bouts of dip buying, create the “complacency” phase of perhaps one of the most acknowledged and ignored charts in markets.

      https://www.thelastbearstanding.com/p/the-matador

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