It Didn’t Last Because It Couldn’t Last

A report from the Daytona Beach News Journal. “‘I think we’re getting closer to being a neutral market again, which is what it was before COVID,’ said Kevin Kaiser of Realty Pros Assured, referring to the spike in people moving to Florida during the pandemic which fueled double-digit percentage price increases from 2020 to the end of 2022. While the Volusia-Flagler area continues to draw newcomers, the so-called ‘COVID bounce’ is definitely over, Kaiser and other Realtors say. National housing market experts Professor Ken Johnson of the University of Mississippi and Professor Eli Beracha of the Florida International University College of Business produce a ranking of the nation’s 100 largest housing markets. ‘I think Deltona is coming in for a relatively soft landing,’ said Johnson in a phone interview. ‘You’re not going to have a crash this time around. If you’re waiting for prices to crash, you’re probably going to be waiting for a long time.'”

The Business Observer in Florida. “‘Tampa Bay’s housing prices declined again last month with condo prices continuing a free fall that legislative fixes have yet to resolve. The bleak housing news was reported by Homes.com, the Co-Star owned real estate research firm, which says early July data ‘underscores a continuation of the cooling trend seen throughout 2025.’ The data is for the Tampa MSA which includes Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. Condo prices, not surprisingly to those following the market’s troubles, ‘continue record steep declines.’ The median sale price was down 15% from a year ago to $210,000, a nearly $40,000 drop. Just how bad is it in the Tampa market? Condo price are down 25% from $275,000 at the peak in September 2023. ‘More inventory, not as much competition from out-of-state buyers and homes sitting on the market for longer have created an environment where buyers have more leverage to negotiate,’ says Michelle Rumore, senior director of analytics at Homes.com in the report. ‘And in many cases, they are getting the sale price down.'”

From KHOU in Texas. “July marked the third consecutive month of growth for the Greater Houston real estate market with strong buyer demand. With a record 40,000 homes listed for sale last month, prices stabilized. ‘It has created a more balanced and sustainable market heading into the second half of the year,’ the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR) said. July marked the largest year-over-year decline in home prices since 2023. The median price was down 3.1 percent to $339,000. ‘While some homeowners are adjusting their expectations, many homes are still attracting solid offers,’ HAR Chair Shae Cottar with LPT Realty said.”

Tri-Cities Business News in Washington. “Is the Tri-Cities becoming a buyer’s market? For the first time in more than 10 years, more than 1,000 homes were on the market in the Tri-Cities in June, the height of prime homebuying season. Homes also aren’t flying off the market as quickly, compared to the same time in the peak season of recent years. Benton and Franklin counties have seen a 6.3% population growth in the past five years, with more than 322,000 people now calling the region home. At the same time, other factors are bringing the market back into balance, such as more resale homes being listed after years of new home construction largely carrying the load. ‘There’s more opportunity for buyers, no doubt about it, compared to six months ago,’ said Craig Smith, senior vice president of operations for Bend-based Hayden Homes, which has several residential developments in and around the Tri-Cities. ‘I think where we’re seeing the slower sales is at the higher price points.'”

KQED in California. “For years, Bob Hughes had been eyeing a corner lot just down the street from his San José office, where he runs a building firm. The single-family property seemed ripe for development. So when he got the opportunity to purchase it, Hughes immediately began thinking about how to split the lot. Now, nearly three years later, Hughes is a few weeks away from becoming the second developer in the state to successfully take advantage of a new law that allows homeowners to sell ADUs as condos. The law, AB 1033 went into effect in 2024 and allows cities to opt into the new rules. San José became the first city last year to adopt them. Since then, at least a handful of other cities have followed, including Santa Monica, Santa Cruz, San Francisco and San Diego. Berkeley planning officials expect to put forward an ordinance in September to allow condo sales.”

“But so far, city officials in Santa Monica and Santa Cruz, which adopted their versions of the law in October and January, respectively, said they had not yet received any applications. The paucity of enthusiasm isn’t entirely surprising, several observers said. Unlike traditional condos, the law requires the ADU to receive a certificate of occupancy before undergoing condominium mapping — a process that’s taken Hughes about six months of precious time sitting on two vacant homes. And after San José officials certify the units as condos, they’ll need approval from the county, as well. ‘I’ve got a lot of money tied up here,’ he said. ‘I want to hurry this along.’ Hughes said he already has a buyer for the ADU he built in San José. The three-bedroom, two-bath, nearly 1,200 square-foot home will go for just under $1.6 million, as soon as the condominium map is approved. The primary home, with five bedrooms, three bathrooms and nearly 2,900 square feet, is listed for more than $3 million. While certainly not cheap, Hughes said, ‘No place in San José is, though. I mean, realistically, they are not.'”

WBUR in Massachusetts. “As anyone familiar with the Boston rental market knows, a Sept. 1 lease usually is secured months in advance, given how the region’s housing cycle revolves around the academic calendar. But in student heavy neighborhoods, including Allston and Mission Hill, lease signings have been sluggish, data show. Some Boston realtors who work in neighborhoods near large universities, like Boston University and Northeastern, attribute the slowdown to new student visa processing protocols under the Trump administration, which has imposed additional restrictions on foreign-born students seeking visas to come study in the U.S. Realtor Terry Leung says the biggest drop in demand is among international students. And it’s not because they don’t need apartments right now. Many of them can’t sign a lease yet — let alone enter the country — because they’re still waiting to get their student visa approved. Many landlords won’t consider an application without a valid visa. ‘Most apartment [owners] are like, ‘I can’t take the risk,’ Leung said.”

“And in Mission Hill near Northeastern — where nearly two-thirds of graduate students enrolled are international — there were more than 100 apartments still available for Sept. 1 start dates as of mid August. ‘That’s pretty rare,’ Leung said. ‘Normally [this neighborhood] runs out of everything before July.’ September leases in Allston and Brighton were very slow to fill in early summer but have since rebounded. Demetrios Salpoglou, the CEO of Boston Pads credits that to the fact that 87% of landlords in that neighborhood offered an incentive like a free month of rent. ‘There’s a lot of landlords that are still nervous,’ he said. ‘This has gone on longer than they would like.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “There was a time when owning a condominium in Vancouver or Toronto was one of the best money-manufacturing investments you could make. Prices soared, in large part incited by demand from foreign buyers, some of whom flipped condos multiple times before anyone ever lived in them. Many sat empty, as these same buyers watched their investments steadily appreciate. Developers, meantime, couldn’t build condo towers fast enough, with the prices they were charging per unit going up as quickly as the buildings themselves. For instance, influential Vancouver real estate promoter Bob Rennie is quoted from a 2011 speech saying the condo market had predominantly become ‘an equity play and not an income play.'”

“The unseemly greed on display eventually caught up with all involved. A furious public backlash to what was taking place, wrongly characterized by some at the time as xenophobia and racism, was nothing of the sort. Rather, it was a protest against a real estate market that had become utterly detached from the income realities of everyday Canadians who wanted to own a home. Eventually, governments at the national and provincial levels listened. Measures, such as foreign buyers’ taxes, were introduced. They immediately stifled the house-buying enthusiasm of the overseas investor class. Prices began to decline, despite the level of supply falling. This ran counter to everything the development industry had insisted for years – that only greater supply would bring prices down. While I have sympathy for the workers that some developers are laying off because of the slowdown in the market, my empathy extends only so far. Developers in B.C. knew exactly what was driving sky-high prices throughout the 2010s and didn’t want it to stop. Their profit margins soared. And how could they not, when they were charging up to $3,000 a square foot for some new condos? But it didn’t last because it couldn’t last.”

The Tri-Cities Dispatch in Canada. “Perhaps the image that best sums up the Gold Rush that has been the Tri-Cities real estate market is passing a street in which a row of houses have for sale signs in their front yards. At the top of each sign are the words ‘land assembly’ – meaning all the homes are for sale as part of a package aimed at developers. In years past, being the owner of a single-detached house that is part of a land assembly is akin to holding a winning lottery ticket, says James Anderson, a Port Moody real estate agent. ‘It can certainly be lucrative if the market conditions are the right condition,’ Anderson told the Tri-Cities Dispatch. ‘You’re just holding yourself in a contract with a very, very wishful number to try to hit the lottery, basically. And if you’re in a principal residence, it is a lottery. Like if you can make an extra million tax-free, then it’s a great opportunity.'”

“Or at least it was, said Anderson. Now, well, land assemblies in Tri-Cities neighbourhoods are mostly languishing, Anderson said with a blunt assessment. Tri-Cities condo sales are dropping and prices are dropping too, leaving developers to focus on land they already own instead of buying new properties, Anderson said. Homeowners, however, are still filled with ‘unrealistic’ dreams of cashing in, said Anderson, citing one listing for $5 million for a 7,000-square-foot lot. ‘They’re just sitting there,’ he said. ‘The land valuations are just so high and developers right now don’t need a lot of land; they need to sell or develop the land they already have. The biggest thing that is stopping (land assemblies) is no one is buying.'”

“Across all housing types in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody, median prices have fallen an average of 9.1 per cent over the last three years. Inventory levels across Metro Vancouver have reached a 10-year high, and spring sales – normally a busy period for the market – have been slow, according to a report from the Greater Vancouver Realtors’ (GVR). ‘There’s just huge drop-offs in pre-sale condo activity … massive drops,’ Anderson said.”

One Roof in New Zealand. “An Auckland homeowner has two weeks to sell his house in Flat Bush, otherwise the bank will do it for him. He’s one of hundreds of property owners in South Auckland under huge financial pressure. Many are selling at a loss. Some are even abandoning their homes and fleeing to Australia, leaving their debt behind. OneRoof talked to several agents in South Auckland who are dealing with clients swamped by mortgage debt and looking for an escape or a way to beat the bank. They talked of the toll the squeeze is having on families. Mortgage brokers say job losses and affordability issues are behind a lot of the unhappiness in the market, and highlight the impact of dropping values on those who bought during the post-Covid boom.”

“Homeowners who bought at the peak of the market were in a sticky position because their homes were now worth less than what they paid. Ray White Manukau owner Tom Rawson told OneRoof that he had noticed an uptick in the number of mortgagee sales in his patch. His agency has about six mortgagee listings. ‘It’s generally very embarrassing for the people selling. The bank doesn’t even talk to them before a mortgagee sign goes up outside their house. It can be horrific. So, the ability to beat the bank, working with their own agent, is a good idea.’ The owner of 63 Koromeke Street is doing just that. He bought the property in April last year for $1.638 million, but has come under financial pressure and is now prepared to sell at a $100,000 loss.”

“Another South Auckland vendor trying to beat the bank is the owner of a three-bedroom cottage at 9 Waimate Street, in Otara. They bought the property for $920,000 in 2022 but were now ‘in a tough position and must sell,’ listing agents Micah Savea and Pat Lapalapa said. Rawson told OneRoof that at least a third of the 50 properties that Ray White Manukau brought to auction at a special event earlier this month were sold due to financial pressure. He said an owner who bought a Hillpark property for just over $1m sixteen months ago resold at auction this month for $850,000 after a consenting issue was uncovered. ‘All her equity was wiped out,’ Rawson said.”

“Barfoot & Thompson agent Parry Singla, who is one of the agents selling 63 Koromeke Street, agreed. People who paid top dollar for houses in South Auckland in 2021 and 2022 were exposed. One of his listings, a three-bedroom home on Sealord Place, in Manurewa, was bought by a developer in 2021 for $1.29m and was now asking for $769,000. Singla said the vendor had decided to cut his losses and move on to the next project. He said a lot of buyers were ‘stuck’ because even if they did sell, the amount they’d get would not be enough to pay off the home loan. One of his vendors recently turned down an offer of mid-$800,000s because it was not enough to cover the bank loan. He then stopped paying the mortgage and moved to Australia. The bank then sold the house at a mortgagee sale for around the mid-$700,000s. Singla knew of others doing the same thing and said they had just decided to leave the debt behind and move overseas for a fresh start, a cheaper house, and better pay.”