What Is Happening Here Is Called A Reversion To Norm
A report from Mansion Global on New York. "We caught up with Cary Tamarkin, founder and chairman of Tamarkin Co, to discuss the challenges facing the luxury market. MG: What’s the biggest surprise in the luxury real estate market now? CT: Nothing’s selling. No one has a crystal ball, so there’s always a cycle at the end of the development. Sometimes you’re pleasantly surprised, sometimes you’re not. "
The Union Tribune on California. "If you are looking to buy a new single-family home this year, San Diego County might be a tough place to do it. Guesses at the start of the year, at least for the last four years, are typically much lower than what ends up being built because developers will increase their production based on how well sales are doing. However, a few things might be different this year. For starters, the end of last year was the first softening of the market in a while."
"Home price reductions picked up, and sales hit their lowest points in years, which most analysts blamed on rising mortgage rates and local wages not keeping up with rising prices. Alan Nevin, industry analyst at Xpera Group, said it seemed like for much of last year that developers couldn’t keep buyers away."
"'They blew through their inventory in 2018,' he said, 'and things started to really slow down in the fourth quarter. Therefore, they just aren’t starting as many in each phase now.'"
"Nevin said housing costs for the builder make it unlikely a cheaper single-family home could come out even if they wanted to. 'The reality is these guys are paying like $300,000 for a 5,000-square-foot lot, and upwards of $125 to $150 per square foot for construction,' he said. 'It’s not Las Vegas. It’s not Phoenix. Our costs here are substantially higher than most other places. You can’t put out a cheap house.'"
"New developments in San Diego County have not lowered prices to adjust to a weaker market, but have been offering more incentives. Some of the options include offering to buy points on a mortgage to lower the price for the first few years, and upgrades to the home or picking up closing costs."
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "Dallas-Fort Worth was the only major Texas metro area that saw a decline in home sales in 2018. The dip in home sales in the D-FW area is due in part to a shortage of listings of affordable homes, said Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center."
"'Are you guys starting a housing bust? I don't think so,' he told members of the Appraisal Institute of North Texas at their most recent meeting. 'Your market is good, sustainable and normal.'"
"But don't expect the big across the board home price increases North Texas has seen for several years, he said. 'There are neighborhoods that are going to show double digit increases in sales and prices and also neighborhoods that are going to show negatives,' Gaines said. 'What is happening here in Dallas is what economists call a reversion to norm.'"
"In 2016 and 2017 many D-FW neighborhoods saw double-digit percentage home price hikes. 'You can't sustain that and don't really want to over a long period of time,' he said. A 4 percent increase in prices is about long-term average,' Gaines said."
"Statewide December was a markedly down month for the housing market. Along with D-FW's 10 percent year-over-year decline in home purchases, sales were off by 12.7 percent in Austin and were 4.2 percent lower in Houston. 'December was a bad month,' Gaines said. 'Texas sales were down almost 7 percent.