With Little Warning, Buyers Became King
A press release from the Florida used house salespeople. "To Realtors®, homeowners and others who ask, 'Are we in another house price bubble?' – the answer is 'No,' according to Dr. Len Kiefer, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist, who spoke to a crowd of more than 400 Realtors at the 2019 Florida Real Estate Trends summit. Kiefer said he and other analysts have been researching home price growth trends and other economic factors to answer the 'bubble' question."
"'Home prices are up, but that by itself is no indication of a bubble; you need an element of speculation or credit financing involved as well, he said. He added, 'So, when I'm asked about a bubble, I do say no – but the way I pause before I say no has been extending a bit as home prices continue to rise more than incomes. However, in our view (Freddie Mac economists), house prices will moderate as mortgage rates rise.'"
From Business North in Minnesota. "Rising mortgage interest rates and home prices, along with a shortage of housing throughout the market has some fretting about a real estate crash on the horizon. While there has been a drop off of buyer optimism in recent months, Doug Kman, president elect of Lake Superior Association of Realtors said he believes a more balanced attitude is in the offing this coming summer."
"'I think we are going to see a better balance of available houses to buyers and therefore we will see prices drop a bit with a drop in buyers writing competitive offers,' he said."
"During the last two years Kman noted prices had been driven up by buyer competition, where in the recent past sellers would quickly get several offers over the list price creating a wave pushing up comparable sales. 'A lot of people are wondering if we’re going to see another bubble because of the rising home prices, but I don’t have that concern because the charts are not the same, foreclosure rates are very low, the feds have raised interest rates to avoid an economic issue and everybody’s on the lookout for it,' he said."
From Realtor.com. "The question is no longer if the nation is in the throes of a housing slowdown, but rather how deep and wide it will wind up being—and how much of a blow it'll deliver to the American real estate market. The signs are becoming ever more troubling. The number of existing home sales has dropped to the lowest level in three years, price growth has slowed precipitously, and some super-pricey, bellwether cities are actually seeing prices fall. (We're looking at you, San Francisco, Dallas, and Miami!)"
"The fact that home growth has slowed in 70% of the United States' 200 largest housing markets has economists debating whether the housing slowdown is the canary in the coal mine, warning of economic woes to come."
"So why are some cities skyrocketing, while the rest of the country appears to have been clobbered by a double-whammy of rising mortgage rates and home prices that have risen too darn high?"
The Orange County Register in California. "Homebuying in Irvine and Tustin fell 13 percent from August through November vs. the same period in 2017 amid a steep countywide slowdown. Once primetime selling season ended in Orange County this summer, house hunters balked. That created the slowest-selling August-to-November period in seven years. Culprits were high prices and expensive mortgages. Meanwhile, homeowners and builders boosted the supply of residences for sale."
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. "After sitting on the market for more than a year, the historic property at 3229 Groveland just underwent a price reduction of nearly $2 million. Situated on more than an acre of land, this stunning five-bedroom, 7,098-square foot Georgian-style house was originally listed at $14.8 million in November 2017. Now the house is being marketed at $12.9 million, a price reduction of $1.9 million, making it much more affordable for those with $13 million to spend."
The Washington Post. "For eight years, we have been operating in a market that allowed sellers to ask record prices year after year while leaving buyers largely undeterred. To be clear, the past eight years should not be classified as a 'normal market' given that home prices in many neighborhoods have outpaced inflation by a lot."
"Sometime around last September, it became obvious that houses, which just months before would have sold in the first weekend, were sitting on the market. They were desirable, priced in line with the market and well advertised."
"I had a few listings in this category. In early fall, the stock market every few weeks would give back one to two months of gains in a day or two, leading to more volatility and concerns. To make matters worse, by Oct. 1 the best interest rate I could get my clients on a 30-year fixed loan was likely to be no less than 5 percent, and that assumed near perfect credit and sizable down payments."
"So after eight years of 3, 3.5 and 4 percent mortgage rates coupled with down payments of 5 percent or less, borrowers were hit with the reality that buying a $700,000 house with a higher mortgage rate means hundreds of extra dollars in monthly payments and an allocation of a ton more of their savings (in down payment) to make the deal."
"Right away that took a chunk of the would-be buyers out of the market — yet inventory levels of homes for sale did not adjust. Moreover, the new tax law in December 2017 took away some incentives — being able to deduct state and local taxes from federal taxes — which definitely impacted the market for homes $450,000 and over."
"The results: Markets flipped from sellers' advantage to buyers' advantage. Almost immediately, for every one buyer there were three really good houses to choose from and no urgency in being outbid. With little warning, buyers became king, yet most sellers refused to adjust. With fewer real buyers in the market, all of a sudden the inventory levels got thrown way out of whack."
"The bottom line is this: The housing market across the country is contracting. I see it every day in my business, and I speak with dozens of top-performing brokers in other major markets who are saying the same thing."