All Signs Point Toward Peaking Housing Markets Around The Country
A report from Realtor.com. "Spring is here—and it’s not just the mercury that’s heating up. This is the unofficial kickoff to the home-buying season, when buyers come out of hibernation and start hitting the open houses in earnest. And this year’s spring market is extra significant, since it will tell us whether the recent slowdown in home sales and price appreciation is just a fluke—or the new normal."
"'Santa Clara County [home to San Jose] was probably the hottest, most competitive market in the country. However, since midsummer 2018 it became the market in the [San Francisco] Bay Area that cooled off the most,' says Patrick Carlisle, Bay Area chief marketing analyst at the real estate firm Compass."
"Unlike many Western cities, Salt Lake City has many new homes going up. In fact, about 1 in 3 homes on realtor.com in that market is new construction. At a median price of $389,000, these new homes actually cost less than existing homes in the market, despite typically having an extra 400 square feet."
"Long the poster child for rapidly rising home prices, high-flying Seattle finally hit the power lines late last year. Would-be buyers were priced out at the same time that sellers and investors, sensing the metro had peaked, began listing more properties."
"Home buyers in Lynchburg almost have too many choices after the number of homes on the market jumped 53% over the previous year. And the length of time it takes to sell a home has skyrocketed, too."
From Forbes on Washington. "Condo developers in price tiers just below the very top have started to borrow ideas from the upper echelons to market their buildings. This is especially true in the pockets around the country that have seen a slow down in activity and have homes staying on the market for longer than they have in years."
"Seattle, once going gangbusters in terms of real estate growth, is one of the largest pockets to see this trend take hold. A new luxury building overlooking the iconic Pike Place Market, called The Emerald, has 265 units coming on the market with prices starting at $500,000 up to around $4.5 million for the penthouses. To stay ahead of the market developers have created an 'immersive' sales experience which appeals to as many senses as possible for the buyer."
"According to data from the search site Estately, last month in Seattle only 20% of homes sold over asking price. But look back to the same month last year and 68% of homes sold over asking. The difference is even more striking when looking at the decrease in median sales price—February of 2018 saw homes selling for a median of $715,000, but only $680,000 this past February. Homes are lower in price and they still aren’t getting as many competitive bids as they were a year ago. In this tilt towards a buyers' market it is going to take more than a slick website to stand out to buyers."
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "February was a disappointing month for the Dallas-area housing market. And the average price of homes sold in the area actually fell by 1 percent from February of last year, according to data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems."
"So far in 2019, sales of single-family homes through the Realtors' multiple listing service are down 5 percent from a year ago. At the end of February almost 22,000 homes were listed for sale with real estate agents - a 25 percent jump from February 2018 inventory in the more than two dozen North Texas counties included in the survey. And the number of condos on the market is now 43 percent higher than it was just a year ago."
"'The market is most definitely slower,' said Dr. James Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center."
From Florida Atlantic University. "Many U.S. metropolitan residential real estate markets are exhibiting downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, according to the latest national index produced by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University faculty."
"'Historical evidence indicates that home prices adjust to these directional pressures,' said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist and one of the creators the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent (BH&J) Index in FAU's College of Business."
"BH&J Index scores approaching '1' indicate significant downward pressure on the demand for homeownership. Scores hovering around '0' indicate neutral pressure, while scores approaching '-1' imply strong upward pressure on the demand for homeownership."
"Three metro areas standout. Dallas (.98), Denver (.81) and Houston (.72) are all producing scores indicating significant downward pressure. Five metro areas are exhibiting signs of moderate downward pressure, including Kansas City (.38), Pittsburgh (.38), Seattle (.38), San Francisco (.37) and Miami (.36)."
"Eleven metros (Atlanta, Boston, Cincinnati, Honolulu, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Portland, San Diego and St. Louis) have BH&J scores between 0 and .30, suggesting slight to mild downward pressure on the demand for home ownership."
"Both Johnson and Eli Beracha, Ph.D., real estate economist and co-creator of the index, agree all signs point toward peaking housing markets around the country with the greatest current threat to housing values being uncertainty over the future of mortgage rates."
"'We are in the business of information production rather than predications,' said Johnson. 'During the last housing cycle very little information was available to consumers and real estate professionals, which exacerbated the results of the downturn. Therefore, we hope to produce information that allows for more informed real estate decision making with the BH&J Index.'"
From the Freelance Star. "Why is it so hard to find a starter home in today’s real estate market? Elliot Eisenberg, aka the Bowtie Economist, used charts, graphs and plenty of humor to illustrate the reasons at an economic summit that the Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors and the Fredericksburg Area Builders Association hosted last week."
"'Every sector in the U.S. has cleaned itself up from the recession with one exception: housing. It’s still a complete wreck,' he told the audience, who nodded and laughed in agreement. 'We’ve under-built because of a weak economy.'"
"That’s especially true for single-family homes, particularly those going for $200,000 or less, said Eisenberg. 'If you don’t build single family, you can’t sell single family,” he said. 'Why can’t builders build them? They can’t make any money.'"
"Eisenberg offered a two-pronged solution. One was to urge their officials to change the regulations. The other, which had the audience in stitches, was to have sex. 'If you want to make America great, or make America great again, go home and make love,' he said. 'Making love can be fun. Think about. I promise you, in 16 years there will be a worker.'"
"'Inventory is going up. Cool your jets, calm down,' he told the audience. 'You can’t see it, it’s so slight.'"
"Eisenberg attributed the slow growth in part to the prices of new homes being significantly higher than they were at their peak before the recession. The median price has risen from $262,600 in March of 2007 to $303,500 last November, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Today, he said, new houses priced under $200,000 are an 'insignificant percentage' of new home sales. Most are in the $200,000 to $299,999 and $500,000 to $749,999 ranges."
"'Last year was the best year. I hope you enjoyed it. This year won’t be as good, but enjoy it. Going from the first floor to the second floor doesn’t mean it’s bad,' he said. 'We’re not entering recession, we’re reverting to a long-term trend.'"
"Paul Porthouse, a Long and Foster real estate agent who attended the summit, said Eisenberg was 'spot on' about the housing market. He said that there is a shortage of houses for sale in the greater Fredericksburg area, and that he got a contract in just one day for a house he put on the market for $230,000."
"'There is such a demand for entry-level housing in this area,' he said. 'Once a house is over $400,000, sales slow down considerably.'"