Central Bankers Across The Developed World Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner
A report from CBC News in Canada. "According to the latest sales figures, the downward trend in Vancouver's real estate market is firmly in place. The average price for a house on the west side is $2.9 million compared to over $4 million just a year ago. Values on the east side have dropped on average by $325,000 — from $1.7 million to $1.375 million. Condo prices are also down by approximately nine per cent."
"While this is great for potential buyers, it is troubling for retirees who are counting on their homes' equity to help fund their retirement. For many of the two million homeowners in B.C., their home is their largest financial asset, so a significant drop in value will impact their retirement plans."
"Of course, the best time to sell is during a hot market, but unfortunately many do not list their home due to FOMO, the fear of missing out. Instead, they delay and only list after prices begin dropping, during a buyers' market."
From Bloomberg on Sweden. "The business model of selling apartments under construction and booking profits along the way before a project is finished is now grinding to halt. The troubles are also raising warning flags for the broader economy. The booming housing market has been a key component of the fast growth in recent years, but is now emerging as one of its greatest risk."
"With many property developers struggling, buyers are even questioning if they are going to get anything at all. Bankruptcies are up 24 percent so far this year in Stockholm, of which a fifth are in companies linked to the housing market."
"Michael Grahn, chief economist in Stockholm at Danske Bank A/S, predicts home prices have further to fall, which will kill more projects and may possible mean the end of some of the smaller developers. 'Producers have been building too expensive homes during a number of years when people were willing to pay no matter what,' he said. 'That time is over, they will struggle to sell those expensive homes.'"
From Jeju Weekly on Korea. "Just a few years ago, the future of Jeju was rosy. However, since last year, people have stopped moving to Jeju and the number of tourists, which had continually been on a sharp rise, is downhill. Suddenly, Jeju can no longer live up to its thriving reputation."
"The housing environment is also getting worse due to the real estate bubble. The number of unsold pre-sale houses in Jeju has reached a record high, and in particular, the number of fully constructed unsold pre-sale houses, considered a negative sign, is also at a record high."
"An affiliate of a housing construction company said, 'Once the Jeju migration fad took off, even small construction companies from the mainland came to Jeju to purchase land and build houses with bank loans. A lot of companies have already gone bankrupt because the houses weren’t sold in time to pay off the debt.'"
From News.com.au on Australia. "First home buyers may be rejoicing at falling house price forecasts of up to 25 per cent in some cities, but for others it’s terrible news. People already repaying mortgages can face negative equity — when what they owe is more than the value of their property."
"'Negative equity is something fairly new. We saw it in Western Australia’s mining towns recently when some houses halved in value overnight,' said Mozo property expert Steven Jovcevski."
From ABC News in Australia. "When it comes to the dodgy art of forecasting, everyone seems to cluster around a central position, which kind of defeats the point of forecasting. What these two graphs show is how the Reserve Bank, effectively, snookered itself. Back in 2012, when debt and housing prices already were elevated, it fired up the east coast housing market, and construction, to take up the employment slack as the mining boom unwound."
"But it created a monster. As housing went on a tear, the short-term sugar hit turned toxic. Employment took off. But housing became unaffordable to almost everyone under 35. And our household debt levels reached for the stars."
"The end result? It couldn't cut rates if it needed. That would add heat to a dangerously inflated housing bubble. And it could never raise rates, because that would kill household spending."
"If it's any consolation, our situation pales when compared with problems in the world's biggest economies caused by easy cash and ultra-low interest rates. Central bankers across the developed world have painted themselves into a corner."
"Decades of deregulation and trade shifts made the world a richer place. The riches, however, weren't equally shared as heavy industry decamped to the developing world, leaving large communities underemployed and facing a bleak future."
"Then came the global financial crisis. Vast amounts of cash was printed, conjured up from nowhere. It fired up debt levels among central banks, corporations and households. Rather than encourage investment or boost wages, however, it mostly helped the rich become even more wealthy."
"It wasn't supposed to be this way. Zero per cent interest rates and trillions of dollars of cash injections were supposed to be a temporary fix, a massive jolt to the heart of capitalism to revive the global economy. The problem is that no-one has figured out how to remove the medicine, how to unwind the stimulus without causing a major downturn and economic chaos."
"Low wages, job insecurity and a sense the game is rigged tends to quickly follow through to the political arena. Voters across the developed world increasingly are shifting away from the centre and toward the extremes. Brexit, unrest within the European Union, the rise of Donald Trump and our own revolving door of prime ministers all bear witness to that."
"That's likely to persist and worsen for as long as the debt mountain grows and continues to prop up asset prices, as central bankers ponder just how to escape the mess."