They Said I Had Bagged A Golden Opportunity, Now They Are All Full Of Sympathy
A weekend topic starting with the Times of London. "Unaffordable property prices are down to Britain’s 'broken housing market,'to use Sajid Javid’s words as housing secretary in 2017. The chancellor was referring to the undersupply of new homes, and he was not alone in his analysis. Most people accept that Britain is failing to build enough, including the Bank of England."
"Yet it turns out we’ve been wrong. Skyrocketing prices, which have risen 60 per cent above inflation since 2000, have more to do with the Bank than the builders. That’s the Bank’s own finding, published on its Bank Underground blog, where it posts research that officials believe is worth airing."
"The analysis, using housing data for England and Wales, could not have been clearer. 'We find that the rise in real house prices since 2000 can be explained almost entirely by lower interest rates,' the authors write. 'Increasing scarcity of housing has played a negligible role.'"
"But what about the 'chronic shortage'? Ian Mulheirn, chief economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, says there isn’t one. Official figures show that since 1996 English housing ' stock has grown by 168,000 per year, while household numbers 'increased by 147,000. We have a surplus of 1.1 million homes now, he' estimates. Amended figures suggest that England needs only 160,000 homes' a year, not the 250,000 in Mr Javid’s 2017 white paper."
"The Bank cannot be blamed for this price escalator effect. The cause has been near-zero rates and quantitative easing globally, which have pushed borrowing costs down everywhere, as well as fierce competition in the British mortgage market. Nor can it claim innocence. Its own analysis shows that central bank policies are driving up house prices, as it knew in 2014 when, on tightening the mortgage rules, it said that low rates pose 'risks to housing markets.'"
From Malaysia Kini. "The National House Buyers Association (HBA) has cautioned that Housing and Local Government Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin's proposal to market RM100 billion worth of unsold high-end properties to buyers from China could have unintended consequences. HBA honorary secretary-general Chang Kim Loong said developers who are not able to sell their high-end properties are reaping the consequence of not building what the Malaysian market needs."
"He said helping developers to market them to China buyers could encourage them to continue with such behaviour. 'Market forces are now punishing these developers resulting in a large overhang of unsold high-end properties, and hopefully this will force developers to build more affordable properties in the future. However, if the government suddenly wants to market these unsold overhang high-end properties to foreign buyers from China and Hong Kong, this will only encourage developers to continue building more high-end properties in the future and even abandon or shun building affordable properties altogether,' he said."
From Kuensel Online. "Lack of an independent property valuation authority and limited investment avenues, a huge demand for real estate has been created in the economy, leading to skyrocketing prices of land and buildings, especially in urban centres. This demand has drawn majority of investment from the public since investors see real estate as a long-term investment, hereditary of a sort. This is an innate Bhutanese trait that places inheritance, as rights."
"However, in the banking sector, this special interest in the real estate has put pressure on the trade balance and INR reserve. Some even anticipate a housing bubble. The Deputy Governor of Royal Monetary Authority (RMA), Yangchen Tshogyel, however, said she was not sure whether there is a bubble at all or when it will burst. She said that limited alternatives for investors and the nature of real estate in Bhutan could have fuelled his trend."
"The risk becomes higher when there are short supplies of tenants and owners are not able to generate the required income to repay the loan. 'The central bank has to address the issues by enhancing the capacity expertise and standardising valuation,' Yangchen Tshogyel said. 'Entrepreneurship and Cottage and Small Industry should serve as a tool for diversification. The focus is on the young population. What we need is not a reform from the government but revolution,' she said."
The Times of India. "Amaravati, the new capital proposed for Andhra Pradesh, is on shaky ground. Silence cloaks construction activities that screeched to a halt after elections. Hotels and restaurants are running empty, new houses look haunted, auto showrooms have no buyers. It’s as if time itself has stopped."
When Naidu made public the location of the new state capital in 2014, land prices skyrocketed. Prosperity and investments swept the region. Today there’s hopelessness all around. Farmers want to return to agriculture but large-scale construction in the last four years has turned fertile lands barren. Farmers who had become landlords are today saddled with a stock of empty houses. About 70% of the living quarters in the capital's 'villages' are vacant."
"The prices have fallen steeply, almost to half. The state's housing project Happy Nest — multi-storied, posh — has gone from class investment for the non-resident Telugu diaspora to a loss-making venture. It was a matter of record, and pride, when all 1,200 expensive flats were booked within minutes of opening. Satish Dhawan from Hyderabad was one of those who had booked a flat in Happy Nest."
"'Everyone called me up and congratulated me,' he told TOI. 'They said I had bagged a golden opportunity. Now they are all full of sympathy for me.'"