What Will Happen To Prices If Too Many Look To Sell At Once?
A report from the East Bay Times in California. "Across the Bay Area, from the Berkeley hills to the Santa Cruz Mountains, insurance companies are declining to renew policies that include fire coverage — sending families scrambling in the heart of fire season to lock down alternatives that tend to be more costly and less comprehensive. 'If something doesn’t happen, we are going to see a significant devaluing of the properties,' said Matt Price, who lives south, toward Bear Creek Redwoods Preserve, pointing out that moving out of the mountains isn’t always realistic for people who want to stay nearby, given the ultra-competitive housing market. 'There’s no way you could leave the mountains and go back to the Valley.'"
"'I have heard from many local communities about how not being able to obtain insurance can create a domino effect for the local economy, affecting home sales and property taxes,' Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said."
From KCRA in California. "As California insurers drop policies in high-fire risk areas or raise rates so high, people are unable to sell their homes. 'It’s been getting worse, but about a year (ago), I noticed it being affected, and the values have gone down because the homes can’t sell,' said Stephani Menser Polley, a realtor in El Dorado County."
The Home Buying Institute on Colorado. "Home-price appreciation within the Denver real estate market has slowed considerably over the past couple of years. This is typically what happens when local housing markets become much more expensive within a relatively short period of time. Eventually, affordability problems creep into the mix, and would-be buyers begin to shy away from the market. This reduces demand and removes some of the upward pressure from home prices."
"According to Jill Schafer, chair of DMAR’s Market Trends Committee: 'In the first half of 2018, home sellers were taking offers over the weekend and selecting the best one in the stack on Monday. This year [2019], sellers are making price adjustments as they try and find the right price point to entice buyers to make an offer.'"
From Inman News on New York. "Of the 16,242 new condos built in New York City since the start of 2013, more than 25 percent remain unsold, according to the study. An estimated 30 percent of these condos are finding themselves on the rental market, according to StreetEasy, meaning many of the actual sales are going to investors, versus New Yorkers using these homes as their primary residence. The study says that the presence of investors should raise alarms."
"'Though evidence suggests that the return on rental income for these purchases is low, many buyers are presumably speculating on their ability to sell the units for higher prices in the future,' the study reads. 'But this prospect has darkened further in recent months, as prices on many new condos have tumbled downward.'"
"'That so many buyers are placing heavy bets on their future ability to sell at a profit raises big questions about the sustainability of the current building boom,' the study continues. 'How long do buyers plan to hold on to these condos, and what will happen to prices if too many look to sell at once?'"
"The fact that so many condos remain unsold could also be a harbinger of a future recession or economic slowdown, according to the study. Still, more condos are on the way. StreetEasy’s study also found that 63 buildings with more than 5,617 units already have listings on StreetEasy but are yet to finish construction."
From The Real Deal. "The numbers say New York City’s condo market is in trouble. Other analysts say the pool of inventory is even larger than StreetEasy’s self-proclaimed 'conservative' calculations. Appraiser Jonathan Miller puts the number of unsold condo units in Manhattan alone at 9,000 — that includes buildings under construction and 'shadow inventory' that sponsors are withholding from the market. By Miller’s count, it would take nine years to sell the backlog."
"To address the staggering oversupply, the hallmarks of the market increasingly now include sponsors paying agents larger commissions (sometimes in advance of closings), fronting buyers’ closings costs, and agreeing to rent-to-own schemes or heavily discounted bulk deals with investors. The latter, Douglas Elliman’s Simon Bacon noted, were last seen in the 2000s as 'the bottom dropped out.'"