A Number Of Properties Are Now Listed With 'Urgent Sale' And 'Priced To Sell' Descriptions
A report from ThinkPol in Canada. "Metro Vancouver detached home prices are in free fall in May as economic turbulence caused by COVID-19 related lock down measures continue to rock the region’s housing market. The OpenHousing House Price Index for detached properties – calculated using the generally-accepted and transparent repeat sales or Case-Shiller method – fell 12.34% year-over-year, the May mid-month projection update shows. This represents a 7.90% month-over-month contraction."
The Financial Post on Canada. "Rents in Canada’s big cities appear to falling fast and that poses a risk to home prices, says a new report by Capital Economics. Capital said a report from Rentals.ca suggest that rents for two-bedroom units fell 8% in Toronto, 9% in Ottawa and 16% in Vancouver in April. Toronto and Vancouver, which receive the most new arrivals and have the highest share of short-term rentals, face the worst declines, Capital said. Toronto normally gets an average of 12,000 new residents a month; the absence of those arrivals could leave at least 3,000 apartments vacant."
"Rental prices are typically tied to the vacancy rate, Capital said and it calculates that a 4.5% vacancy rate for Toronto could translate into a 'whopping 15% drop in rents.' 'That represents a big risk for house prices,' said Capital economist Stephen Brown. 'Many recent investors reportedly already faced negative cashflows as rents were too low to cover all their expenses. With rents now falling, some may sell properties, which could cause a drop in house prices in excess of the 5% we have pencilled in.'"
The Daily Mail on the UK. "Britons could see their dreams of getting on the property ladder dashed as banks demand 'unaffordable' mortgage deposits amid fears house prices could tank by levels not seen since the financial crisis in 2008. The number of mortgage deals for customers with a 10 per cent deposit has dropped from 780 in March to just 87, Moneyfacts revealed today. Meanwhile, the number 5% deals stands at just 30 - less than a tenth of the figure two months ago."
"Jonathan Roland, from property investor House Buy Fast, warned the banks' actions was storing up problems for the future. 'Holding back on lending causes problems for the market,' he said. 'If that's replicated in the mortgage market banks could be personally responsible for the collapse of the property market and we could even have another 2008 situation. Banks must lend cautiously and sensibly, yes, but also freely.'"
"Simon Gammon, a managing partner at Knight Frank, said: 'It's very difficult to get a mortgage above 95 percent now, and they were very much the norm back in February. It will result in a lot of first time buyers who just can't get a mortgage because they are unable to afford a deposit. So it's going to stall a number of people who want to buy this year. It will leave them stuck.'"
The Business Insider on South Africa. "The coronavirus crisis is expected to have a particularly nasty impact on house prices in South Africa. Widespread job and income losses do not bode well for demand and the supply of for-sale properties is expected to rocket as households can’t afford their mortgage payments anymore. Pricier properties are expected to be worst affected, with high-end home prices already under pressure even before the crisis."
"The latest property listings show large price reductions in many of these properties, particularly where most of South Africa’s priciest homes are situated: the Atlantic Seaboard in Cape Town. One Fresnaye mansion - originally listed for R50 million – is now on the market for R10 million less. A 5 bedroom house in Bantry Bay previously on sale for R39.5 million is now available for R29 million, while a two-bedroom house on Clifton’s Third Beach (once listed as R37.5 million) has an asking price of R29.9 million."
"Price reductions are also evident across other upmarket areas, including in Gauteng, where a number of Sandton properties are now also listed with 'urgent sale' and 'priced to sell' descriptions."
From Money Control in India. "Such has been the discreet and indirect nature of price cuts by developers, that even their prospective customers aren’t aware of it. So why don’t developers just do that and clear their massive inventory through price cuts? There is no easy way to say this – but the industry is a prisoner of its past with regards to its consumer base. Unlike airlines, FMCG companies, automakers, etc. who are able to promote sales by announcing price cuts, in real estate it is almost considered a sin."
"The logic goes like this: If I cut prices for new customers, what will my existing buyers think and do? That premise held true previously when the investor audience was a substantial portion of the entire clientele and sales were robust. In recent years the investor segment has dwindled sharply as prices have largely stagnated or fallen."
"I am aware that suggesting such moves will have implications on the funding structure that currently exists for most developers. But that is a structure which is anyway seeing change. I am not espousing the case for a dump sale across real estate either. For many, even a price cut will not work today."
The Hong Kong Standard. "Centaline Property Agency recorded 19 secondary transactions at ten major housing estates over the past weekend, down by 13.6 percent week-on-week, as developers continued to launch new home sales in the primary market, while rents of nano flats came under downward pressure. Laguna City in Kwun Tong and Metro City in Tseung Kwan O recorded no secondary transactions at all."
"There were also two cases of forfeited deposits of around HK$220,000 and HK$300,000 after purchases of two flats at Emerald Bay in Tuen Mun were canceled. In the rentals market, rents of micro flats came under downward pressure. A 166-sq-ft studio at AVA 55 in Kowloon City was rented for only HK$8,000 a month, or HK$48 per sq ft. And in Pak Shek Kok, a 248-sq-ft studio flat at Solaria was let for only HK$8,900 last month, or HK$36 per sq ft, after HK$2,100 was cut from the asking price. The rental yield was only 2.1 percent per annum, as the owner purchased the unit for HK$5.15 million in 2018."
From 7 News in Australia. "The housing market is predicted to suffer due to the economic downturn from COVID-19. However, there’s plenty of debate around just how much damage will be done - with prices expected to take a real dip once loan deferrals expire and JobKeeper payments end. 'A strong economy and a strong jobs market generally leads to house price growth, when buyers are feeling confident and banks are happy to lend,' said finance editor Gemma Acton. 'We’re seeing the exact opposite of that at the moment.'"
"'The only people who are selling right now are people who have to sell - and you wouldn’t sell if you didn’t have to because buyers know they can take their time,' Acton said. 'The real question is how many people are going to feel like they have to put their house on the market over the coming months? A lot of people’s financial situations have changed. Many investors who are relying on rents to pay off the mortgage are seeing rents fall or are struggling to get tenants in.'"
"At the moment, there is a bit of a reprieve because banks have been offering mortgage repayment deferrals for six months. 'A staggering amount of homeowners are taking this up. One in 14 mortgages is now having their repayments deferred. That’s 429,000 home loans. This just shows the amount of trouble that they’re in.'"
From ABC News in Australia. "Property managers in different states, with thousands of properties on their books, have told the ABC up to 10 per cent of tenants have requested rent reductions due to a loss of income. Half of the nation's workforce are on income support through an increased JobSeeker payment or the JobKeeper wage subsidy. Both expire after six months. In addition, the eviction ban and the big four banks' offer to pause mortgage repayments for landlords expire around the end of September too."
"Shelter WA chief executive Michelle Mackenzie dreads to think about what will happen when all those supports end within days of each other. 'The world's going to collapse.' One of the busiest property managers in Sydney, Ewan Morton, is concerned about a grim springtime. 'The whole world is starting to ask the question about September, October. That may be when the real carnage hits,' the joint managing director of Morton Real Estate said."
"The changes made rapidly at the end of March — an eviction ban, mortgage pausing and income support for renters — took the heat out of the situation. But he said they have not solved the problem. 'Banks can't keep doing it forever,' he added."
"Most landlords are small investors with only one or two properties. If they are among the 1.3 million investors who use negative gearing, they were already losing money on the properties before the crisis. (Although many would do this deliberately because it reduces their taxable income)."
"Emma Allen helps clients buy properties to then rent out. The director of Active Property Investing said it is in the best interests of landlords to keep their tenants, but that non-payment or reduced rent cannot go on forever. 'We have landlords with the ability to be able to be flexible on their rents, but we also have landlords that just won't survive it,' she observed. Beyond mortgages, landlords must still pay council rates, insurance, strata fees and land tax as well as maintain the properties."
"'In one case, the tenant had lost 20 per cent of her income but little did she know that she still earned more than the landlords — so it's not always as it seems,' Ms Allen added."