If You’re Not Slightly Embarrassed By Your Offer Then You’re Probably Not Going Low Enough
It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "The Los Angeles Tenants Union (LATU) has been posting fliers on the streets 'urging residents not to pay rent and to demand a rent strike,' one concerned property manager told The Epoch Times. On March 25, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that financial institutions will provide relief for the vast majority of Californians. But most property owners don’t qualify, because their properties are considered commercial, not residential. 'Many will lose their properties to foreclosure,' Dan Yukelson, executive director of the Apartment Association of Great Los Angeles said. 'That freight train is bearing down on rental property owners right now.'"
""More than 3.6 million homeowners nationwide were past due on their mortgages at the end of April, the most since January 2015, according to estimates by Black Knight. Statewide, 5.73% of homeowners were not current at the end of April, up from 2.16% at the end of March. However, that increase of 3.6 percentage points was the ninth highest of any state. The states with the largest increase were Nevada (5.2 percentage points) and New Jersey (5.1 points)."
"In the San Francisco metro area, non-current loans rose to 3.59% at the end of April, triple the 1.17% at the end of March. In San Jose, they jumped to 2.8% from 0.8%, according to Black Knight. Among the 100 largest metro areas, the cities with the biggest jumps were Miami (+7.2 points), Las Vegas (+6.2 points) and New York City (+5.4 points)."
"Sharif El-Gamal built a 667-foot condo tower in Tribeca. Now he’s threatening to rip the top of it down, his lender says. The developer is playing hardball, according to the lender, warning that if a foreclosure proceeds, he will make the project much less valuable. The project has suffered a series of setbacks, and its consortium of overseas lenders has cut off funding and is moving to foreclose."
"As with many luxury condo projects across the city that missed the market’s peak in 2015, El-Gamal’s troubles at 45 Park Place have been building for some time. Records show only 11 of the tower’s 50 units have gone into contract since sales launched in 2017. With so many condo projects in distress and buyers coping with coronavirus fallout, 45 Park Place will not be the only one to face a reckoning. More foreclosures, note sales and projects changing hands are expected, said Stephen Kliegerman, president of Halstead Development Marketing."
"In March, Justice Francis A. Kahn III appointed a temporary receiver to take control of the property, a move that attorneys for the developer tried to block. 'All parties must agree that the prospect of a languishing, half-completed skyscraper in lower Manhattan for years to come is a scenario that should be avoided at all costs,' a lawyer for one of the El-Gamal–affiliated entities wrote in a letter to the judge."
"Luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami sold for about $3.3 million on average in the first quarter, but the average price dropped in May to just over $2 million. The 36.3 percent price difference between the average closed price and the current listing price is a snapshot of pre-pandemic and current buyer and seller expectations in Greater Downtown Miami, according to Peter Zalewski, principal at Condo Vultures Realty and a bulk investor. The spread suggests that the luxury condo market is 'dead in the water,' Zalewski said."
"The average asking price of condos as of May 11 was $772,050, but the average closing price in the first three months of 2020 was $524,375. There were 593 active listings of luxury condos priced at $1 million and up, and nearly 85 months of supply, or seven years, as of early May."
"Now isn’t the time to buy real estate if someone is willing to wait for a better deal, according to a local analyst who predicts condo prices in the Vancouver area are set to decline for years. Eitel Insights founder Dane Eitel says it’s not the time to try to catch a falling knife, or rather the longer someone holds on to a property they can’t afford, the harder it will be to get rid of it."
"The average price for a condo is more than $660,000, but he says that’s going to change. 'For the condo market, January 2018 was the peak at $750,000. Currently, we’re down 12 per cent from that,' Eitel explains. Within two years, he says that price should fall to $525,000 in a few yeas, and heavily-mortgaged owners may soon be forced to sell.'There are buildings that have been completed and they’re roughly 60 per cent available –30 per cent for sale, 30 per cent for rent– so, all these investors that purchased are going to be put in a tough place and you’ll see a continuation of increased inventory,' Eitel says. He adds as of April, nearly 4000 condos are listed for sale across the Lower Mainland, but just under 508 sold."
"Now is 'one of the best times ever' for city centre renters to move, according to Rob Bence, who hosts Britain’s most popular property investment podcast. 'As someone who helps investors, I probably shouldn’t say this, but you can view properties that are currently out of your price range and put offers in,' he says. 'If you’re not slightly embarrassed by your offer then you’re probably not going low enough.'"
"When the pandemic shut down travel, a glut of properties in Kensington and Chelsea switched from Airbnb-style short lets to long lets, pushing the number of rental properties on TLC estate agency’s books from 23 to 71, says Samantha Hossack, its lettings director. 'I took on four former Airbnbs [in] just [one] afternoon. As a tenant, you have three times the amount of choice.' A further influx came from central London investors who had put buy-to-lets up for sale after Brexit in January, but reverted to letting once coronavirus hit."
"The Mortgage Society of Finland (Hypo) has revealed it expects the coronavirus pandemic to temporarily dent house prices by up to five per cent. The pandemic has delivered a heavy blow especially to the short-term rental market build around platforms such as Airbnb. 'Thousands of flats have been moved to the regular rental market at considerable discounts, and sales are being considered,' it said. 'Lay-offs and bankruptcies will compel people to even mull over selling their home if the crisis drags on late into the year. There may be fire sales also from cash-strapped housing funds and over-indebted new settlements.'"
"In its latest NZ Property Focus report, ANZ's economists confirmed their earlier forecast that house prices would likely fall by 10% to 15% this year, compared to an 8% to 10% fall in GDP. 'More supply coming on stream due to short term rentals sitting vacant will also see the supply-demand balance shift and put rents under downward pressure. This will become clear as new tenancies are entered into and in some cases where tenants negotiate down their rents to a level they can afford. Landlords in some regions may not have much negotiating power, given the increase in rentals available,' the report said."
"Tenants are in a better position to demand lower rents than they have been for years as the devastating impact of the coronavirus crisis leaves landlords desperate to fill vacant properties for 'whatever they can get.' Figures showed that rents for houses in Sydney have fallen to their lowest point since 2013 thanks to the Covid-19 triple whammy of economic standstill, lower migration and a flood of former Airbnb lettings left empty by the wipeout in the travel industry."
"Jade Costello, co-founder of Melbourne Rental Search, said she was seeing something 'we’ve never seen before' with landlords willing to negotiate on the price upfront. 'You might see somewhere for $500 but the landlord will be willing to drop it because they just don’t want places to be vacant,' she said. 'It’s a tenant’s market for sure. For the time we’re seeing tenants having the power of negotiation. They are going in with the rent they want to pay and landlords and agents, who used to have so many potential tenants to choose from, are saying whatever we can get we will take it.'"
"For the past two decades, Australia’s housing market has mostly been a one-way bet on rising prices. Now, with the effects of coronavirus shutdowns reverberating through the economy and the nation set for its worst recession in 90 years, the concept that owning property is a license to print money is under threat. Australia has one of the world’s highest levels of household debt, the nation’s banks are heavily exposed to mortgage lending, and many mom and pop investors rely on income from rental properties, which are also under pressure."
"'Australia’s had an obsession with residential property for a long time,' said Richard Holden, professor of economics at the University of New South Wales. 'A lot of people have a lot of their wealth tied up in residential property. I’m pretty worried.'"
"And while banks are going all out to support existing borrowers, they are tightening the screws on new customers. 'Banks aren’t going to lend based on a ‘future return to normality,’ they will lend on the now,' said Redom Syed, the founder of mortgage broker Confidence Finance. 'A major shock to lending markets is coming.'"
"This spring, as tens of thousands of renters saw their incomes diminish or disappear because of COVID-19 restrictions, the B.C. government stepped in with the unprecedented step of halting evictions and offering a $300-$500 rent supplement. But not even that assistance, combined with a $2,000 a month wage replacement benefit from the federal government, has been able to bridge the enormous gap between earnings and rent in Canada’s most expensive rental markets, Vancouver and Toronto."
"'I think that we’re at a moment now where our governments are experiencing what individuals have been feeling for long periods of time now in our urban settings: ‘Whoa, it’s really hard to manage these housing costs when we’re on the hook for the earnings to pay them,' said Paul Kershaw, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s School of Population and Public Health. 'I think we’ve reached a moment where the provincial and federal governments say… we’re only going to get there if we no longer say home prices are ‘unhealthy’ when they’re not rising, they’re healthy when they’re closer to people’s incomes.'"