At First, I Thought This Would Be Temporary
A weekend topic starting with the Texas Tribune. "When Kathy Whitmire ran for Houston mayor in 1981, helicopters were among the top sources of municipal strife. Residents of the Memorial neighborhood were irate over the daily noise of west Houston businesspeople who opted to fly over the gridlocked freeways for their morning commutes. That's just how over the top the Texas economy had become as oil prices skyrocketed in the 1970s and into the early 1980s."
"Whitmire won the race. But a plunge in oil prices effectively resolved the noise complaints. And about about a year into office, her problems became bigger and more unexpected. 'All of the party was over,' Whitmire said in a recent interview with The Texas Tribune. 'At first, I thought this would be temporary.' Instead, the oil bust engulfed the decade."
"Money sloshed around the state as independent oil producers took out millions in loans to buy the equipment needed to drill. And then there were the banks, jewelers and car dealerships that catered to the overnight millionaires. Real estate soon emerged as the most noteworthy outlet for Texas money. With growth in commerce and in population, it seemed quite logical at the time to invest big in new housing developments, soaring skyscrapers in Dallas and Houston, shopping centers, and vacation condominiums on South Padre Island."
"The most prominent of Texans shrugged off their lack of business pedigree and leveraged themselves to the hilt in oil and real estate. And one in every 20 commercial Bell helicopters sold on the continent ended up in Houston. The only uncertainty in those days was just how high the prices of oil would go. Then, everything fell apart."
"The bottom hit in 1986. But historical context was no help to oil producers who plunged deep into debt buying up rigs amid the frenzy to meet anticipated demand. The economic angel of death for oilmen came in the form of bankers calling in loans. 'The Dairy Queen was filled with the usual hardbitten but dejected crowd — noveau riche only a few months earlier, now nouveau bankrupt,' Larry McMurtry wrote in his 1987 novel 'Texasville,' set in a bust-era fictionalized version of Archer City in northwest Texas."
"And it was not just the small-town guys. Perhaps the most famous bankruptcy happened to a resident of the fashionable River Oaks neighborhood — former Gov. John Connally. After Connally sold off his Austin home and Houston condominium to pay off debtors, national reporters descended onto Houston in 1988 to cover Connally as he tearfully auctioned off his possessions to pay off only a fraction of his debt. But he would not be alone in despair. The pain hit prominent Texans across the state."
"The pullback of spending and real estate collapse exacerbated the problems. Tax revenues plummeted, and governments cut services. Many older Texans who lived through 1980s turmoil wince at the memories. Republican Cyndi Taylor Krier represented San Antonio in the state Senate and saw firsthand as government officials dealt with the fallout. Since those days, they made sure to keep some cash on hand for another crash. It's a sentiment Krier endorses for governments as well. 'If there’s one thing that Texans should know is that we live in a cyclical economy, whether it is oil and gas, or agriculture,' said Krier. 'You can’t assume you’ll always be on top of the mountain.'"
From Bloomberg. "Desiree Duff lost her bartending job in late March when the New York restaurant where she worked closed along with the rest of the city. Duff, 29, an aspiring actress, left her apartment in Brooklyn’s Bushwick neighborhood and moved back in with her parents in South Carolina. The ordeal has left her rethinking the city’s appeal. 'Not knowing what my future there looks like does make me reconsider,' Duff said. 'Maybe after my lease is done I should move elsewhere, to a smaller city that was less infected, as much as that breaks my heart.'"
"As cities from New York to San Francisco have locked down in recent months to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, many residents have decided they’d rather wait out the pandemic elsewhere. The exodus has left apartments empty, remaining roommates scrambling to make rent, and landlords wondering whether demand for apartments will return when life gets back to normal."
"'It’s a really hard time for the renter, but it’s a really hard time for the housing provider, too,' said Charley Goss, government and community affairs manager at the San Francisco Apartment Association, which works on behalf of property owners. A survey Goss conducted of 352 San Francisco landlords found that 17 percent — an unusually large amount — have had tenants break leases or give 30-day notice to vacate over the past month. Of those surveyed, a fifth said they’d received requests for temporary or permanent rent reductions."
"Demand for apartments in San Francisco and New York — the country’s two most expensive rental markets — has dropped since the start of the pandemic. Even when the lockdowns lift and the economy begins to recover, Goss said he expects the rental market in San Francisco to stay slow — possibly permanently so — as more people embrace working from home."
"'People won’t need to be in a job center if they can work from home,' he said. 'I would expect to see less demand, and that corresponds to lower rents.'"
The Colorado Springs Gazette. "Mortgage loan servicers are companies that, for a fee, provide services to mortgage loan investors. Those services include collecting and accounting for borrower payments, managing tax and insurance escrow accounts, and dealing with delinquencies. Mortgage loan servicing was historically a high volume, low margin business where money was made by employing as few people as possible (and, in my experience at least, putting all calls on hold)."
"However, at the time of the Great Recession, when the housing bubble burst and loan delinquencies soared, the mortgage loan servicing industry quickly became dysfunctional and bad things started to happen."
"Since we are now entering another period of rampant mortgage loan defaults (an epidemic of default) and new government mitigation programs are being created, the loan servicing industry is again on the front lines, and knowledge of a few of the provisions of Regulation X, Subpart C, might prove useful."
"Finally (for today) are sections 1024.40 and 1024.41. These sections require mortgage loan servicers to help borrowers understand what 'loss mitigation' programs might be available to them; promptly process applications for any such programs; and assign named personnel to a borrower such that he or she can (imagine this!) actually deal with the same people on a recurring basis. Also, per section 1024.41, a servicer can’t commence a foreclosure until a loan has been delinquent for at least 120 days."
From Bankrate. "Fully 3.6 million homeowners were past due on their mortgages as of the end of April, the highest level since 2015, mortgage data firm Black Knight said Thursday. Nationally, the delinquency rate nearly doubled. In March, as the coronavirus began to affect the U.S. economy, just 3.39 percent of borrowers were behind. In April, when economic activity ground to a halt, that figure soared to 6.5 percent."
"The fallout from the pandemic has been spread unevenly among states. The sharpest increases in delinquencies came in states that fall into two categories — those that rely heavily on tourism, and regions that bore the brunt of the pandemic."
The Oregonian. "The crushed economy and widespread unemployment won’t result in a flood of residential property foreclosures, predicts George E. Perkins, a broker with 20/20 Properties who has handled distressed properties since the high-mortgage interest year of 1985. Holding back foreclosures: Current laws protecting homeowners and renters, and low interest rates."
"Here are Portland homes that are bank owned for sale. 3932 S.E. 16th Ave. in Portland’s Brooklyn neighborhood is listed at $329,900. 'Huge price reduction. Move-in ready home in a highly desirable neighborhood. Will not last,' says listing agent Valerie Hunter. 13231 S.E. Buford Court in Portland’s Pleasant Valley is listed at $484,900. 'Huge reduction. Huge vaulted master suite with a walk-in closet and soaking tub. Buyer to perform due diligence and verify all info,' says Hunter. Annual property taxes are $6,104."
From Complete Colorado. "From the stock market peak of February 12, 2020 to its low point on March 23, the Corona Crash plunged the Dow and other market indexes almost 40%, wiping out nearly $10 trillion in market capitalization. The world’s 500 richest people lost more about a trillion dollars in wealth on paper. If your 401-k now seems more like a 301-k, you may be wondering where all the money went."
"Financial markets look to the future, and the value of a company’s stock is based on its prospects — good or bad -—as perceived by investors. Yes, you can cash in on the market value of your stock the day you sell it, but if you don’t sell it that day, you take your chances on what it will be worth tomorrow. A house you bought for $200,000 could triple in market value over time, at which point you might calculate it in your net worth at $600,000. If the housing bubble bursts and the market value of your house drops to, say, $300,000, it takes your net worth on paper along with it."
"Collective optimism in a bull market drives up stock prices, in general. But bull markets don’t go on forever.Collective pessimism has the opposite effect as demonstrated by the fear of impending doom brought on by COVID-19. Historic market crashes in 1929, 1987, 1999 and 2008 were driven by major financial shocks from things like over-leveraging, the S&L collapse, sector bubbles, the mortgage-market implosion or 'irrational exuberance,' as Alan Greenspan put it. The Corona Crash is something entirely different. It isn’t a typical market correction."
"As a future investment strategy, you might take Will Rogers’ sage advice on making money in the stock market: 'Don’t gamble! Take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.'"