If You Have Inventory, You’re Cutting Deals
A report from the Sacramento Bee in California. "As concerns of another economic downturn in the style of the housing market crash of 2007 or even the Great Depression nearly 90 years prior continue to swirl in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, speculation is endless and fears are mounting. The Sacramento Bee spoke with several economists to get a better sense of the severity and longevity of the current crisis, which has resulted in mass layoffs, store closures and bankruptcies."
"Chris Thornberg, a Southern California economic consultant, argued that the recession caused by the coronavirus is fundamentally different than previous downturns due to the fact that it was not caused by a faltering economy or struggling market, which may mean a relatively quick return to pre-pandemic conditions. 'This is not the same kind of unemployment you saw during the Great Recession,' he said. 'This is not a financial bubble.'"
The Orange County Register in California. "It’s awfully hard to cheer when new-home sales in the six-county region fell 11.5% as the coronavirus crimped the economy. DQNews reported builders completed sales for 1,226 new residences last month, the slowest April since 2012. But note what happened in the resale market: Only 12,600 existing homes and condos sold — down 33% in a year. It added up to the worst April for Southern California homebuying in DQNews records dating to 1988. Worse than the mid-1990s housing slump. Worse than the bubble-bursting Great Recession days."
"The battle to thwart the coronavirus has hammered most of the economy, costing California more than one-fifth of its jobs. That kind of business disruption has meant at least 1-in-14 mortgage borrowers nationwide have some sought house-payment forbearance. The folks peddling new homes also seem willing to discount. Research from Meyers shows roughly two-third of builders are promoting 'concessions' — offers to help with closing costs, interest rates or upgrades. And quietly, maybe you’ll find a few cutting prices at slower-selling projects."
"'There’s no deep discounting. But behind closed doors, you might probably see some incentives, 2% or 3%,' says Leonard Miller, CEO of Orange County-based builder New Home Co. 'If you have inventory, you’re cutting deals.'"
From Jonathan Miller in Forbes. "As I read through available housing stats during this COVID-19 era to get a general sense of where the overall market is going, it is notable how difficult that task has become. Everything we look at seems to require an asterisk. "The April 29th release by NAR is the most current version available as of this moment, and it reflects the market data of March that includes 'meeting of the minds' data from February. This PHSI release represents a two-month lag, and the following chart using non-seasonal YOY% change patterns is pretty terrifying. And that’s just the data through March."
"There are specific periods, especially in quickly deteriorating markets, when large swaths of contracts don't close. In New York City's situation where I am based, closing attorneys tell me that written contracts lag the 'meeting of the minds' by a month or more right now. Buyers are trying to cut better terms, and sellers are trying to keep the deal together."
The Real Deal on New York. "The U.K.’s billionaire Reuben brothers have snapped up another Manhattan real estate bargain. The investors bought a $100 million piece of a construction loan SL Green Realty made to the developers of a Gramercy Square condominium development, sources told The Real Deal. The purchase price was a discount of somewhere between 96 and 97 cents on the dollar, according to a source."
The Record Eagle in Michigan. "The Traverse City residential scene remained a seller’s market this spring, with potential buyers anxious to scoop up houses as soon as they could sign the papers. But one segment of the local real estate market may feel the effects of the pandemic shut-down far longer than most: short-term rentals. 'I’m kind of freaking out,' said Anne Leonardi, who rents out a single property near Traverse City through Airbnb."
"She began renting a house last year, and had a great summer in 2019. The future looked bright, and she borrowed money for project not related to the rental — but is counting on rental income to pay back the loan. The pandemic has her worried. 'I do not have any full weeks booked,' said Leonardi. 'I have nothing in June, three three-day weekends in July. And then August I have three weekends. I’m down about $15,000' compared to last summer."
"'We have some that are still scheduled for July at this point,' said Katie Marks. 'About one third of our income comes from Airbnb. Our Airbnb is actually on the same property that we live on. We took over my parents’ house because they couldn’t afford it anymore. To keep our other house on the property we rent it out in the summertime. That pays for our mortgage and our taxes on that house. I’m just really hoping that we will be able to start renting in July, because if we can’t, we can’t pay for the house for the rest of year.'"
"'I think you’re going to see some people that bought them as an investment, maybe so they could hold them until retirement or whatever, that are going to find themselves — not only not seeing the kind of income that they were planning for coming in this season — but, you know, the taxes aren’t going down. Most of those properties are non-homestead. So it’s a burden for them to hang onto because of the tax situation,' said Traverse Area Association of Realtors Chief Executive Officer Kim Pontius."
The Tahoe Daily Tribune. "With millions unemployed across the United States, both California and Nevada issued statewide eviction moratoriums at the end of March regardless of tenants’ ability to pay rent. But as the future remains murky amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, both renters and landlords are concerned about what will become of the overdue rent."
"Across the state line in South Lake Tahoe, the status of unpaid rent is causing confusion and concern for renters and landlords alike. Martina Simon and her husband own 15 studio apartments in the city, and with California’s eviction moratorium in place, it’s been 'stressful and frustrating.' 'We feel like we are truly the one entity and small business — because we are not a huge company with hundreds of rentals and deep pockets — that provides a service that currently the people of California have been told they don’t have to pay for: the roof over your head and your utilities,' explained Simon."
"'We have a tenant who was supposed to provide documentation showing that he lost his job, but he hasn’t done that. He hasn’t given us anything; he just hasn’t paid,' said Simon, who is currently working 70 hours a week cooking meals at a local school and working at a grocery store to make sure her family is secure while her husband manages the rentals. 'We have other renters who have received unemployment and stimulus checks, but are already saying to us, ‘we don’t know about rent next month…’ added Simon."
From Realtor.com. "After whiffing last year, Boston Red Sox legend David 'Big Papi' Ortiz is making another attempt to sell his massive home in Weston, Mass. It’s now available for $5.5 million—an almost 13% price cut from last year’s asking price of $6.3 million."
The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. "New April home sales numbers released Thursday show that the pandemic has dramatically stunted the housing market — though some parts of the market more than others. In Tampa Bay, that trend was largely replicated, according to official numbers released by Florida Realtors. Hillsborough County saw an 18 percent drop in single-family home sales in April compared to 2019. Pinellas tumbled 27 percent."
"But the new numbers also show that these drops were not distributed equally. They were fueled mostly by plummeting sales of the most affordable single-family homes — less than $250,000 — while more expensive properties still were sometimes sold at rates that were actually higher compared to last year in Hillsborough and Pasco counties."
"Michael Bindman, a real estate broker and owner of the firm NextHome Gulf to Bay, said Pinellas’ issues likely center around the fact that April is peak season for out-of-town tourists from up north to come down to the beaches and also scoop up second homes. 'They’ll buy and they’ll be closing before they go back up north which tends to be end of April and May,' he said. 'That’s a huge part of the market … that didn’t happen this year.'"
"He also pointed out how the pandemic has made lenders much more conservative, making them hesitant to grant so-called 'jumbo loans' to buyers looking to purchase million-dollar houses."
"Lou Brown, a broker that specializes in lower-to-moderate priced homes in Pinellas, said he’s concerned that if prices continue to go up in the months to come, the market will leave some people forever unable to purchase homes. The pandemic has revealed just how many people were already living paycheck-to-paycheck."