There Is No Such Thing As Magic In Finance
It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "'It was becoming clear the economic boom of the past 10 years was not sustainable, and that the 2020 assessment roll would reflect the apex of 10 consecutive years of economic prosperity,' said Santa Clara County Assessor Larry Stone. 'I had hoped for a gradual decline. I expected the next recession would be a ‘normal’ recession, a ‘soft landing.’ Unfortunately, we are facing a ‘crash landing,’ that one analyst described as like being in a wheelchair pushed down a very long flight of stairs.'"
"You can see the effect of the pandemic in a video shoot at lunchtime in downtown San Francisco — no hustle and no bustle. Many storefronts are boarded up, or gated shut and lots of windows have for lease signs posted. The cost of renting office and retail space is expected to get cheaper, relative to inflation over the next three years because of coronavirus, according to a survey of Bay Area and southern California commercial developers conducted by the Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast."
"'When you think of a pandemic, it literally is something like a tidal wave and it comes through and it clears out a lot of stuff,' John Tipton said. 'It clears out weaker stuff that was just barely hanging on and in some cases it knocks down some good things that quite frankly would’ve just been just fine but for the title wave of the pandemic.'"
"According to Black Knight, Florida’s 10.5-percent May mortgage delinquency rate was fifth-highest among all 50 states and highest in the Sunshine State since January 2010. In the U.S. overall, 4.3 million homeowners were past due or in active foreclosure in May, pushing the national delinquency rate to 7.8 percent, its highest level in almost nine years. Florida’s 14.5 percent May unemployment rate is among significant contributors to increased loan delinquencies and a glut of new properties being posted on the market. Within a year to 18 months, the glut could trigger a 10 to 20 percent decline in housing prices, warned Florida Atlantic University professor and real estate economist Ken H. Johnson, one of the report’s authors."
"Actress Jennifer Lawrence has sold her Manhattan penthouse at a multimillion-dollar loss. The 4,073-square-foot, three-bedroom condo on the Upper East Side, was last listed for about $12 million – after Lawrence bought it for $15.6 million."
"We spoke with one landlord in the City of Erie who owns 52 properties. His issue with the moratorium is that he feels one of his liabilities is being taken away. 'At this point of course there’s not action for us to get the money. There are some programs coming out, but it’s very slow to come to light to see if any more, if any,' said Glenn Cessna."
"A large group of retail investors from the Toronto area’s Sikh community are out as much as $9-million after purported land developers pitching housing projects allegedly diverted their investments for their own use, including making a down payment on a 2019 Lamborghini, court records show. In June, Justice Koehnen ordered the developers to disclose the locations of four other luxury vehicles they allegedly own or lease and barred anyone from driving them. The developers objected to this, arguing the matter had not been fully adjudicated and that it would be improper to suspend their 'ability to use their automobiles.'"
"Justice Koehnen was not persuaded. 'A party that refuses to comply with court orders to begin with, and then continues its refusal to comply, cannot expect any sympathy for the loss of use of a Lamborghini.'"
"The impending COVID-19 recession will cost UK landlords £5.7bn ($7.4bn) in rental income by 2024, research suggests. The financial impact will see rents in the UK fall by at least 5%, rental service Home Made estimated. This represents £5.7bn of income lost for Britain’s landlords — four times the £1.3bn of rent lost to the 2008 recession. What’s more, the rental economy is not expected to bounce back until early 2024 at the earliest. London is set to be hit hardest, with rent declining by at least 9% — a loss of £3.9bn for landlords."
"According to Frans Uusiku, Market Researcher Manager at FNB Namibia, rent prices are responding much more rapidly in the parts of the country most heavily impacted by Covid-19. Walvis Bay saw the biggest contraction in rent prices of 29.6%, followed by Ondangwa (-27.4%), Rundu (-25.5%), Oshakati (-15.5%), Ongwediva (-5.7%) and Windhoek (-3.4%)."
"Prices and rent of high-end houses have dropped on reduced demand as expatriates flee from Kenya due to Covid-19 in the six months to June in a period that also saw demand for business and office space reduce. Half year report released Wednesday by Knight Frank shows that prices of prime residential houses in places such as Karen, Lower Kabete, Runda and Muthaiga dipped by 2.9 percent in contrast with a 1.8 percent decline in same period last year. The realtor firm adds that rent for prime houses also dropped by 6.55 percent, being a faster pace when compared with a 1.67 percent drop that was seen in a similar period last year."
"Home ownership is an instinctive human need but will remain a cherished dream for most Bangladeshis as aspirations alone are not enough to sell houses. The first thing to understand is that the industry is not benefitted by desperate price cuts from developers. Price reduction also harms those who have already purchased their homes at previously higher prices. This creates negativity among investors and the outcome is a downward spiral due to a lack of confidence in the market."
"From a prospective investor's viewpoint, buying an apartment in metropolitan Dhaka is not a very attractive proposition either. The ratio of rent to price is very low (between 3 to 4 per cent) whereas the home loan interest is 9 per cent."
"Queenstown has suddenly become a much cheaper place to rent. Figures show the median weekly rent advertised in Queenstown-Lakes has fallen 28 per cent on a year ago, dropping in June to $550. The number of listings in Queenstown have also soared, by 152 per cent. Trade Me Property spokesperson Aaron Clancy said Queenstown’s $210 rental drop was the biggest in seven years and 'staggering' after peaking at $800 in January."
"There was a huge increase in supply on the West Coast (75 per cent,) Otago (26 per cent) and Southland (24 per cent) compared with a year ago. 'We believe there are a few factors at play here – the dip in tourism and resulting job losses, landlords moving short term accommodation onto the long term market, , and people moving regions to find work,' Clancy said."
"Buyer's agent Lauren Goudy said poorly performing investor stock in Sydney was dragging down the rest of the market. 'The area where it is difficult for properties to move at the moment is apartments under $1 million. The reduced number of tenants means rents have come back and if owners can't find a tenant, those properties are being listed for sale, so there is an oversupply of very ordinary units,' said Ms Goudy."
"'Where you might see discounted stock are modern apartments that are only a few years old that were bought off the plan for fairly high prices at the time and are now not being able to be rented and needing to be sold,' Melbourne selling agent Jeremy Rosens."
"Little did Apollo know it back then, but the last $17 point whatever billion Caesars deal was doomed from the very start. That crazy deal was first made public in 2006. By that time the housing bubble had already popped. Few people knew that at the time (some did), but fate was already sealed for a financial crisis. That financial crisis took about two years to filter down through the system once it was triggered. The same exact thing is happening right now, except now it’s much, much more obvious, and much, much worse."
"It was possible to deny there were any systemic problems in 2006 if you didn’t understand credit cycles. Now, not so much. Just like 14 years ago in 2006, the fate of this new Caesars deal is already sealed. It’s doomed. There is absolutely no chance that this is going to work. Why in the name of all the fictional financial gods, goddesses, and nongendered deities would you want to become the largest casino owner in the world specifically now? It’s like taking on a bunch of anvils right when you’re about to cross seriously rough seas."
"Just when commercial mortgages are defaulting at a record pace, unemployment is at Great Depression levels, and the entire global banking system is about to completely implode, they’ve taken on the most indebted casino firm in the world. Eldorado and Caesars are now going to drown together. They will not survive this."
"CEO Tom Reeg said to Bloomberg: 'The Federal Reserve helped the company sell the loans by pushing official interest rates to almost zero, Reeg said. Early, strong results from casinos, which began reopening in May, also provided a boost. 'Customers were effectively trapped in their homes for three months,' said Reeg, who has been with Eldorado for almost a decade. 'They were anxious to get out and be entertained. They were looking for places they could go, drive to, go back home. It was perfect for the regional casinos.'"
"There’s some great pearls of wisdom here. First of all, the Fed gave us the money and we took it, he says. Great. That’s what the credit cycle is, and Eldorado/Caesars is about to be taken out to the woodshed and whipped by it. Money grows at the Federal Reserve as much as it grows on trees. It just doesn’t. All the Fed can do is dilute and redistribute. There is no such thing as magic in finance."
"Caesars’ interest expense in 2020 is projected to be $1.354 billion. Operating income $390.6 million. In the best case scenario of synergy and recovery from COVID-19 fear, operating income might inch up gradually, but it’s not going to be enough to cover interest expense, let alone operate at a consistent profit. The debt Eldorado is taking out to finance this deal thanks to the Fed, is going to have to be rolled over long before it comes due. At that point if the dollar hasn’t collapsed completely yet, the Fed will own pretty much the entire bond market."
"Deutsche, one of the other zombies involved in this deal, is now projecting that the Fed’s balance sheet will reach $20 trillion within the decade. That’s the size of the entire US economy. In my view it’ll get to $20 trillion much sooner, within 2 years is my guess, if it can even get that high before the dollar is completely rejected as a unit of account."