We're Going Back To 2009
A report from CNBC. "A surge in rental property evictions could have a domino effect on the broader housing market and economy, Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, told CNBC. 'This really could be catastrophic, and it extends beyond just the rental industry,' and could 'affect the single-family housing market and the economy as a whole.'"
"The eviction crisis could be a boon, however, for eviction services, said Glenn Kelman, chief executive of real estate brokerage Redfin. 'If you look at the data right now, about 8% of mortgages are in forbearance. That’s the program that lets you defer a mortgage payment for about a year. In January, the delinquency rate was about 3%,' Kelman said. 'Clearly, the people in the business of evicting folks out of apartments and houses, of handling delinquencies and foreclosures are anticipating a big 2021 and that’s one of the shoes that we’re really worried could drop next year.'"
From KPBS in California. "According to a study by the consulting firm Stout, over 40% of California’s renters are currently unable to pay their full rent and are at risk of eviction. Last week, a group of landlords held a press conference in support of AB 1436. One of those was San Diego landlord Ginger Hitzke. She doesn’t want this housing crisis to be a repeat of 2008, where investors were able to move into a distressed housing market, buy foreclosed properties, and drive up rents."
"'I feel like I’m looking at this thing from the perspective of a real estate professional. And it terrifies me because renters, particularly renters on the lower end of spectrum, they’re in the habit of being just people. They’re not real estate professionals, and they’re not going to know how to deal with this,' Hitzke said."
From ABC 7 News in California. "The latest figures from REReport.com show a significant drop in sales of single-family homes and condos in the Bay Area. Sales are down anywhere from 10.9% to 34.1% in San Francisco, Alameda, and San Mateo Counties from July 2020 to the year before. Condo sales are also down double digits in Santa Clara County, and home sales there are flat. Unfortunately for many already in a home, this is a stressful time. Many distressed homeowners are getting into deeper trouble."
"Robert Benavides walks into his meeting with a housing counselor from A-1 Community Housing Services in Hayward. The Union City man is struggling to keep up with his mortgage payments. The independent plumber has seen much of his work dry up during the pandemic. 'It just started to slow up, but this just made it worse,' he told us. Benavides asked us not to show his home, but just recently succeeded in getting a loan modification to save it from foreclosure."
"'I was threatened and dates were given for auctions of my house on four different occasions,' Benavides recalls. He's fearful the current situation could push him back into foreclosure. 'It's tight, it's close. It is affecting my income,' said Benavides."
"His situation may not be unique. The Mortgage Banker's Association estimates just under four million Americans are in forbearance, which allows them to skip paying their mortgage due to the pandemic. Executive director Nancy Rivera of A-1 Community Housing Services fears that could cause more harm. 'The way I'm seeing it is you, you're just buying time. You're just buying time and once that's due, unless you have $20,000, $30,000 in back payments. I mean, we're going back to 2009,' she warned."
From The Real Deal on California. "The coronavirus pandemic has created opportunity in Los Angeles’ luxury housing market. Properties are selling, but usually for far less than original asking. The latest examples are a pair of modern-style spec mansions that sold in Beverly Hills and Beverly Park last week, but whose owners accepted significant price chops. A 16,450-square-foot home in Beverly Hills Flats sold for $24 million, nearly half the $45 million its owner asked when it hit the market last summer, according to Variety."
"The Beverly Park property is a half-finished mansion that sold for $28.5 million, according to the Los Angeles Times. That’s an 18-percent discount from its $34.7 million price tag when it hit the market four months ago."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "As Lori Loughlin and her husband await sentencing for their role in the college admissions scandal, the pair just wrapped up a massive home sale in the meantime. The celebrity couple just sold their Bel-Air estate for $18.75 million — significantly shy of the $35 million they were originally asking. While it’s still more than the $14 million they paid for it five years ago, they’ll likely take a net loss, as they spent a small fortune renovating the property during their stay."
The Real Deal on Florida. "Billionaire hedge fund manager Clifford Asness sold his South Beach penthouse for $22 million, 15 percent less than he paid for it two years ago. Though the luxury single-family home market in Miami Beach has seen a number of high-priced deals, the condo market is not performing as well, especially during the pandemic."
"In 2018, Asness paid $26 million for the five-bedroom unit, which includes a private rooftop deck, a fire pit and pool. He listed the penthouse at 321 Ocean Drive for sale last year for $29.5 million, and sold it for a 25 percent discount off the asking price. Asness had purchased the Miami Beach condo from Russian venture capitalist Boris Johnson, who once had the unit listed for $53 million."
From 6 Sq Ft in New York. "This Greek Revival home looks like something one might find in New Orleans or Savannah, but it’s actually right in Clinton Hill. Its southern charm, however, has not seemed to help the home at 136 Clinton Avenue find a buyer; it’s been on and off the market for four years, originally asking $4.8 million. One year ago, the price dropped to $3.6 million, and it’s just been lowered again to $3,420,000."
The American Statesman in Texas. "As many parts of the economy take a brutal blow from the coronoavirus pandemic, the homebuilding market in Central Texas -- at least for now -- is a notable exception, new figures show. From April through June, builders started work on 5,330 houses. That’s a record for any second quarter, and it’s 30% more homes than were started in the second quarter of 2019. The previous second-quarter peak was 4,492 starts in the second quarter of 2018, Metrostudy said."
"'Much of the activity seems to be coming from first-time buyers,' said Vaike O’ Grady, Metrostudy’s regional director in Austin. 'For the first time in years the Austin apartment occupancy rate recently dropped below 90%.'"
"Still, the new home market faces a multitude of headwinds, industry experts say. 'There is a lot of uncertainty about the virus and the economy, never mind the election,' O’Grady wrote. 'Our projections are for a bumpy end to the year— and into 2021.'"
"O’Grady also said a recovery from the current recession could be years away. 'With the recent surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, the threat of a longer and deeper national recession has increased. Continued job loss, tighter mortgage standards, and anxious consumers could dent homebuyer demand, even here in Austin. While no one is certain what shape this recession will ultimately take, it could very well affect 2021 housing demand and building activity, and full recovery may take years.'"
"Eldon Rude, a Central Texas housing market expert, said he expects sales of new homes to remain strong through the summer. However, he said his main concern near term 'is how long can sales remain at recent levels in an economy that is not creating nearly the number of professional jobs it was prior to the pandemic.' 'I don’t know the answer to this question,' Rude said. 'But hopefully the companies that have been the drivers for our economy in recent years will resume hiring before this recent surge in demand for housing fades.'"
"Metrostudy said that 'continued and broader job losses' could slow the pace of new home sales going forward. 'Up until now, the losses have primarily been in the leisure and hospitality segments, where incomes are lower and folks are less likely to be homebuyers. If more people get laid off, the housing industry will suffer, despite record-low mortgage rates.'"
"Homes with base prices below $300,000 made up half of the closings in the 12 months that ended in June. Almost one-third of homes that builders started work on in the second quarter had base prices between $250,000 and $299,000."