A Housing Crisis That We Knew Was Coming
A report from AM New York. "According to RealtyHop, five Manhattan neighborhoods had the highest number of price drops last month. Manhattan’s Upper East Side-Carnegie Hill was the neighborhood with the most price drops in September. The Norwood area of the Bronx had the highest median percentage price drop with -39.6%, meaning the listing had a $78,800 price drop. Following not so closely behind was the Bronx’s Bedford Park-Fordham North with a -10.3% drop, meaning a drop of $33,433 on a listing, and the Steinway area of Queens with a -10.1% drop, a -101,000 decrease on the listing."
"Two neighborhoods in the Bronx round out the top five with high median percentage price drops last month: the Melrose South-Mott Haven North with a 9.6% drop, meaning a $96,000 price drop in the area, and the Claremont-Bathgate area with an 8.4% drop, equaling a $200,000 price drop in the neighborhood."
From Boston 25 News in Massachusetts. "The first round of stimulus payments included help for small businesses, as well as direct payments to families. Many are facing unemployment, but now that money is gone, and more help is needed. Boston 25 News Reporter Malini Basu spoke with the owner of Mast Boston, a restaurant in Boston, who says after this news, he is on the brink of shutting down. This story resembles the story for hundreds across the city."
"Marco Caputo’s restaurant is on Province Street in downtown Boston. He needs all the financial help he can get, even after his landlord slashed his rent in half to $15,000 a month. 'The stimulus check would give me more time that I would survive. Now, I’m standing between shutting down and trying to survive,' says Caputo. 'Downtown is dying. We need help.'"
From Bisnow on Massachusetts. "Boston's office market has seen better days. More than 2M SF has hit the sublease market since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in March. Many of the companies looking to rent out their offices are tech firms that have hit hard times in the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic. 'Historically, this is a larger ratio of office inventory compared to the Great Recession of 2008 and is closing in on the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s,' Hunneman officials wrote last week in their third-quarter office report."
The Wall Street Journal. "The technology boom elevated San Francisco office rents to the highest levels in the country. Now during the pandemic, these buildings are suffering the biggest rent declines. The lack of office workers is clobbering the city’s economy, wiping out thousands of jobs that support its businesses. About half of the city’s 3,900 restaurants are likely to fail because of the pandemic, said Laurie Thomas, executive director of the Golden Gate Restaurant Association."
"'There are almost no tours. There’s almost no proposals,' said Chris Roeder, who runs JLL’s brokerage team in San Francisco. 'The deal activity has totally dried up.'"
The Silicon Valley Business Journal in California. "Median apartment rents in Mountain View have dropped more than 15.5% since February, the sharpest drop in median apartment rents compared to nine other Silicon Valley cities during that time. Apartment List's data shows that median rents for apartments in Mountain View ranging from studios to four-bedroom units decreased between 15.63% and 15.66% from February to September, depending on the unit type."
"In Sunnyvale median apartment rents for studios through four-bedroom units have declined between 14.93% and 14.98% from February through September, depending on the unit type. Four-bedroom units have seen the biggest drops in median rents, from $4,071 in February to $3,461 in September. Rob Warnock, a research associate at Apartment List, said that Mountain View and Sunnyvale are great examples of cities where the job market and the housing market are closely linked. 'For a long time, that was something that people would pay a premium for,' he said."
From Socket Site in California. "Having jumped over 20 percent in September, the number of homes on the market in San Francisco, net of all sales, both pending and closed, has just ticked up to 1,900 for the first time in a decade and is within 5 percent of hitting a two-decade (plus) high. Listed inventory levels in San Francisco are now over 200 percent higher than they were in October of 2015 and roughly 20 percent higher than during the Great Recession."
"At the same time, with 31 percent of the homes on the market in San Francisco having been reduced at least once, which is 14 percentage points higher than at the same time last year, the number of reduced listings has jumped 26 percent over the past month to a 10-year high in the absolute."
From KITV 4 in Hawaii. "Data shows Hawaii's rental vacancy rate jumped to 9% in August, more than double what's normal for the state. According to UHERO, more than half of Hawaii's rental units are single family properties. 'At the lower end of the rental market is going to be an increase in vacancies,' said Philip Garboden, HCRC Professor. Garboden says he's concerned rising vacancies will mean those landlords will choose to sell their properties rather than rent, shrinking the supply of affordable housing."
"Property manager Daniel Lee, of Elevate Hawaii Management, doesn't believe that will happen. 'They're trying to sell it and they haven't been successful. So, their thinking is it's always easier to find a renter than it is to find a buyer, which I tend to agree,' Lee said. 'The stuff in the I'd say on the lower price range, like anything under a thousand or maybe around $1,200 super fast or rents very quickly. Something in the high end, not so much and then stuff right in the middle, been sitting a lot so that one bedroom, two bedroom anywhere from, let's say $1,700 to like $2,500, it's very stagnant.'"
The Greater Baton Rouge Business Report in Louisiana. "Nearly 110,000 Louisiana homeowners were unable to pay on their mortgages in September—including some 15,000 in East Baton Rouge Parish—suggesting that the state could be on the brink of a foreclosure crisis when forbearance periods come to an end next year. According to national consulting firm Urban Footprint and the Baton Rouge-based Center for Planning Excellence, the mortgage gap in Louisiana—the difference between what is owed on monthly home loans and what mortgage holders are able to pay—is currently an estimated $140 million per month."
"In Baton Rouge, as well as in Lafayette and on the Northshore, the gap is nearly $20 million. In the Greater New Orleans area, which has the largest mortgage gap in the state, the amount is $34 million. 'The findings of this report put more numbers to a housing crisis that we knew was coming,' CPEX Executive Director Camille Manning Broome says."
"The study predicts the crisis will hit in early 2021, when a federal forbearance program that was part of the CARES Act relief package expires. While the expiration of the program is still several months away and is not expected to hit all at once, the study includes data showing that as of Sept. 30, 3.6 million homeowners nationwide remain in pandemic-released forbearance plans. That’s nearly 7% of all active mortgages and represents more than $750 billion in unpaid principal."
From WCCO in Minnesota. "America’s economy is a two-sided coin. One side shows a resurging stock market. On the other, struggling small businesses trying to weather a pandemic and the restrictions that come with it. WCCO spoke Tuesday with Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. 'Ultimately, we have to get control of the virus in order to fully restore our economy,' Kashkari said."
"Surviving not just the virus, but its impact on job loss is another major hurdle for America. That’s why Kashkari believes a second stimulus package is needed, especially for the millions of people still unemployed. Many who are jobless worked in hospitality, restaurants and retail. Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he wants negotiations on the HEROES Act — currently a $2.2 trillion stimulus package — to stop until after the election. Kashkari, along Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, said it cannot wait any longer."
"'If those folks who are out of work today can’t pay their bills, then this spirals. Then there’s a worse downturn for our economy. Then you have a lot more small businesses going bankrupt, you have banks facing big losses, then the downturn is much worse for all of us,' Kashkari said."