It’s Coming, It’s Just A Question Of How Bad Is It Going To Be
Two reports from the Wall Street Journal. "Even with recent gains, more jobs have been lost—nearly 11 million—than were cut in the wake of the 2007-09 recession, when 8.7 million were eliminated. Economic production, despite a sharp bounce-back in the third quarter, still resembles the depths of the 2008-2009 recession, at roughly 95% of where it stood going into the crisis, said Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics’ chief U.S. economist. 'Not many things are viable if they’re just at [95%] of the revenue they usually have,' he said, and if they are, 'they’re usually viable with lower input costs—reduced workforces.'"
"Take the intersection of 42nd Street and Avenue of the Americas in midtown Manhattan, said Mitchell Moss, a professor at New York University. 'At 6:30 p.m., you used to have 100 guys delivering dinner to those working late,' he said. 'We have no visitors and few workers. Until we get one or the other back, it’s going to be a ghost town.'"
"Recent, high-profile foreclosure proceedings include Chicago’s Palmer House Hilton hotel and a portfolio of luxury apartment developments in New York City. Behind the scenes, more lenders are starting negotiations to take over properties from their borrowers, said Jay Neveloff, a partner at law firm Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel LLP."
"Across the U.S., 278 properties backing securitized mortgages were in foreclosure as of last week, according to Trepp, and at least 80 of them had financial problems related to Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus. Real-estate attorneys and executives say they expect the number of foreclosures to increase. 'It’s coming,' said Jay Olshonsky, chief executive of real-estate-services firm NAI Global. 'It’s just a question of how bad is it going to be.'"
"He expects foreclosures in commercial real estate caused by the pandemic to be far worse than what happened during and after the 2007-2009 recession, when properties backing tens of billions of dollars in commercial mortgages ended up in foreclosure. 'We’ve never had a situation where people weren’t paying their rent on their apartments, like we have now,' Mr. Olshonsky said."
From Honolulu Civil Beat. "It stands to reason that with a major part of Hawaii’s economy shut down because of COVID-19 that Hawaii’s notoriously tight rental housing market would suffer. The vacancy rate for residential properties has more than doubled compared with pre-COVID levels, to almost 9.2% in August from 3.9% before the crisis, UH Professor Philip Garboden reported."
"About half of the August housing turnover was instigated by the crisis, and not at the end of the lease. And while about half of the landlords and property managers surveyed said they were staying profitable, many were not. 'Troublingly, 40% said they were struggling, and 10% note that they (or the owners) are considering selling,' UHERO reported. The downside of all of this, the report said, is that some residential landlords might decide renting properties in Hawaii isn’t the lucrative business it once was."
From WKRN on Tennessee. "Nationwide, rents have fallen by 1.4% over the past year but in Nashville it’s even worse, with rents declining sharply. Landlords are working with struggling tenants in Nashville. Developer Tony Giarratana is offering an 'October surprise' to new tenants of the 505 tower downtown – no rent until January. This comes after short-term rental company Stay Alfred pulled out of its 140 units in the 505 due to COVID-19 related hardships a few months ago."
The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. "In both Tampa and St. Petersburg, business owners, patrons and analysts alike are wondering whether the face of the region’s downtown areas will be forever changed by the coronavirus pandemic. In Downtown St. Petersburg, asking rents for multifamily apartment buildings were down in early September by about 2.5 percent compared to before the pandemic, which means that new tenants in the area could get a unit last month for about the same prices as mid-2018, according to numbers from CoStar Group."
"It’s the first time in about six years that this area has seen a prolonged dip in asking rents, said Brian Alford, CoStar’s director of market analytics for Florida, who pointed to the large increase in new apartments right before the coronavirus took hold as a major culprit. There’s also been a major increase in so-called 'concessions,' like apartments offering months of free rent as an inducement to sign a lease."
"Restaurateur Roger Perry has opened two downtown St. Petersburg restaurants since 2018. He relies more on downtown residents than workers, but said the lockdown still opened his eyes. 'It was like Chernobyl. There was nobody on the streets,' he said of the pandemic’s first few weeks. 'All of the people who have second homes there went back home to be closer to their doctors. The hotels are closed, so we’re not getting any tourists. The offices are closed. People are working from home. So in a downtown business that relies on the people that live and work there, there was just nobody.'"
"The lesson Perry took away: 'I would be worried if I owned commercial real estate downtown.'"
The Denver Channel in Colorado. "COVID-19 is impacting industries all throughout our country, and the real estate market is seeing its share of ups and downs. For first time home buyer Alex Saiz Saiz, the upswing after lockdown meant finding the perfect bachelor pad. '(The pandemic) almost kind of helped me, because it did bring the prices lower and the interest rates dropped,' Saiz said. 'It was kind of an opportunity that I took advantage of. It was a total no-brainer.'"
"For now, the roller coaster ride that is 2020 will continue. Although the future looks promising, this year has taught us all that anything can happen. 'If we don’t level out a little bit, I think we could be heading toward a bubble burst,' realtor Amy Asher said cautiously."
The Mercury News in California. "Don and Laura Zapata grew up in San Francisco and, until August 31, lived their entire lives there. The Zapatas joined a procession from San Francisco this summer that has sent rents plummeting, home inventory soaring and chilled home and condo prices in what remains the most expensive city in the nation. The number of homes for sale in San Francisco nearly doubled during that time, and list prices in the city dropped about 5 percent, tilting ever-so-slightly toward a buyer’s market."
"'It’s not a mass sell-off. You’re not getting fire-sale prices,' said Zillow economist Jeff Tucker. 'I don’t see anything that says San Francisco is going to be a ghost town anytime soon.'"
"Property crime, drug use and a growing homeless population are central concerns for many leaving the pandemic-struck city. In a January survey conducted for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and this news organization, 96 percent of San Francisco residents said homelessness was the most serious problem facing their community. In tech-popular neighborhoods downtown, Mission Bay and SoMa have seen condo listings roughly triple from the previous summer, according to San Francisco Redfin agent Gabrielle Bunker."
"Marc Dickow, president of the San Francisco Association of Realtors, said the growing inventory of condos has been driven by investors who have seen renters leaving the city as work-from-home routines have stretched into months. Strong renter protections and a softening market have made the decision easier for many investors, he said. 'They were not their homes anyway, so they’re putting them on the market,' he said. Generally, SoMa and South Beach have seen the most for-sale listings, he said."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "If you’re planning to bid on Patrick Nesbitt’s sprawling estate in Montecito, you better bring a few million. The 20-acre spread, once listed at $65 million, will be auctioned off to the highest bidder with no reserve on Nov. 16-19. Nesbitt has been shopping the property around since 2016. Records show he trimmed the asking price to $55 million earlier this year."
From Senior Housing News. "Covid-19 has placed significant strains on the margins of senior living providers, and pandemic-related costs will continue to hit the industry as 2020 draws to a close. Although Covid-19 has disrupted financial operations for months, the specific impact can now be quantified, thanks in part to data from HealthTrust that the firm’s COO and Partner Colleen Blumenthal presented during the webinar. Notably, margins throughout the pandemic average around 21%, closer to skilled nursing facilities, while net operating income losses averaged around 30%."