As Loans Get More Delinquent, That’s When The Real Costs Come Into Play
A report from the South Florida Business Journal. "The Related Group proposed a 37-story apartment building with no on-site parking in downtown Miami. There’s an over-supply of condos on the market in downtown Miami and condo sales have slowed during the Covid-19 pandemic, so building apartments is an easier avenue to pursue right now."
From Your Observer in Florida. "Overall, Longboat Key property values have decreased for the first time since 2013. Using Realtors Property Resource data from June 30, John Tuccillo, an economic and real estate expert, found Longboat Key's market had a decline in median list prices (-8.54%) and median sales prices (-22.9%) during the last quarter."
From Yahoo Finance. "It wasn’t the coronavirus pandemic that fueled the flight to the suburbs, according to one expert, but it sure helped. 'So the trend had started actually before the pandemic, and it has certainly accelerated as a result,' Byron Carlock, the real estate leader at PwC, told Yahoo Finance. 'It looks like in New York City, about 5,000 households a week have been vacating since July 1, and that's largely millennials that have decided to move to the suburbs for more space. So the urban exodus appears to be real.'"
The Real Deal on New York. "Not even Stephen Ross can avoid price chopping in this market. The Related Companies boss and Miami Dolphins co-owner cut the asking price for his Time Warner Center penthouse to $62.5 million — a 17 percent discount from the original $75 million price tag. Spanning 8,274 square feet atop the Related-developed condo tower, Ross’ unit is now priced at $7,553 per square foot, putting it at the upper end of the struggling luxury market."
"Luxury sales saw a 46.7 percent year-over-year drop in the third quarter, according to Miller Samuel. The average listing discount was 12.1 percent. Last month, for instance, a penthouse at Related’s Zaha Hadid-designed condo overlooking the High Line went into contract for $24.975 million. That was down from an initial price of $50 million. Four other units at the property, at 520 West 28th Street, have gone into contract since March with an average discount of 29 percent, according to Olshan Realty."
From Reason Magazine. "The country's priciest cities are seeing massive declines in rents. San Francisco has also seen the largest price declines. Rents for studio apartments there have declined by 31 percent year over year there, according to a new report from Realtor.com. Rents for one- and two-bedroom units declined by 24 percent and 20 percent respectively. Nearby San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have seen price declines of 12 percent for one-bedroom units, and around 10 percent for two-bedroom ones."
"It's not just California, either. Other dense urban areas have seen steep price declines as well. King County, Washington (which contains Seattle) has seen rents fall 12 percent for studios and 10 percent for one-bedroom units. In Manhattan, rents have declined by 15 percent for studios and 10 percent for one-bedroom apartments. Washington, D.C., and Boston both also report double-digit rent drops."
"The trend, if not the individual figures, matches reports from other listing websites. A recent report from Apartment List found median rents had declined 20 percent year over year in San Francisco, 12 percent in New York City, and 9 percent in Seattle."
The Dallas Business Journal in Texas. "Despite the rising cost of lumber and other building materials, new home prices fell last month in North Texas, while home sales and pending sales rose. New home prices, based on a 12-month moving average, dropped for September in Dallas-Fort Worth to $369,416 versus $369,986 in August, according to a report from Dallas-based HomesUSA.com. DFW new home prices have moved lower since February, when the average new home cost $374,788."
"Sales prices as a percent of their list prices remained relatively unchanged again last month, based on a 12-month moving average. In DFW, it was 97.993 percent in September versus 97.948 percent in August. Elsewhere in Texas, average new home prices also dropped last month in Houston, going to $347,868 versus $348,047 in August. The average price increased slightly in San Antonio last month, hitting $298,396 versus $297,654 in August."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Southern California home sales and prices surged in September, the latest evidence of a hot housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because the median is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less, it reflects a change in individual home values as well as the types of homes sold at any given moment."
"So one thing that has made the median price rise so much, analysts say, is that members of higher-income households have been less likely to have lost their jobs in the pandemic, leading a greater share of home sales to be in the luxury segment now than at the same time last year. The California Assn. of Realtors predicts less price growth in 2021. 'The uncertainty about the pandemic, sluggish economic growth, a [potential] rise in foreclosures, and the volatility of the stock market are all unknown factors that could keep prices in check,' Leslie Appleton-Young, the association’s chief economist, said in a statement."
From Mansion Global on California. "The big-ticket single-family home market across Los Angeles’s Downtown and Westside, areas that encompass ultra-high-end neighborhoods such as Bel Air, Pacific Palisades and Beverly Hills, recorded a banner third quarter characterized by jumping prices and soaring sales, according to a report Thursday from Douglas Elliman. Bolstering demand are a number of factors, according to Stephen Kotler, CEO of Douglas Elliman's Western Region."
"At the high end in particular, opportunistic buying is supporting transaction levels, as are big-name buyers, according to Mr. Kotler. 'A lot of the sales that we have seen in the Westside are people in entertainment that are trading up,' especially, he said, now that pricing has become more realistic."
From DS News. "In estimating how much distress the COVID-19 crisis has brought upon homeowners, the Mortgage Banker's Association (MBA) determined, via its Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA), that some 6 million households missed rent or mortgage payments in September. 'In September, 8.5% of renters (2.82 million households) missed, delayed, or made a reduced payment, while 7.1% (3.37 million homeowners) missed their mortgage payment,' MBA reported."
"Some experts predict that the worst might not be over. 'Rent and mortgage payment collections improved over the summer as more people went back to work, but high unemployment continues to place hardships on millions of U.S. households. There is growing concern that absent a slowdown in the number of coronavirus cases and another round of much-needed federal aid, millions of households in the coming months face the prospect of falling further behind,' said Gary V. Engelhardt, Professor of Economics in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University."
"The tens of millions of student debt borrowers behind on their payments also has future ramifications for the housing and mortgage markets. Borrowers ending up in default would see an adverse effect on their credit, in turn making it potentially more challenging for them to rent or qualify for a mortgage."
From Housing Wire. "At its Annual event Wednesday, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni forecast that mortgage rates could rise in the year to come, but that they will remain near all-time lows. Fratantoni pointed out that the job losses seen in 2020 have been unprecedented, even when compared to the Great Recession."
"'Yes, it’s come down to 10 million, but look at how that compares again to the peak in 2009 of 6.6 million,' he said. 'This has just been a tremendous negative shock for the economy as a whole.'"
"'This distress is not going away soon' Fratantoni said. 'Many of these folks who thought they were on a temporary furlough are now reporting they have a permanent job loss. Many of the employers they thought they were returning to have gone bankrupt, and the longer this crisis lasts, the longer the restrictions are in place, and again, the public health demands that some of these restrictions remain in place, but the economic cost is real.'"
"On the servicing side of the business, elevated borrower delinquency rates – particularly for FHA borrowers – remain a concern. Top of mind for servicers will be pursuing the most appropriate loss mitigation strategies for post-forbearance borrowers and investors. 'Servicers will remain busy in 2021 helping borrowers exit mortgage forbearance and into longer-term solutions,' said MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis Marina Walsh. 'This will likely result in the operational need for additional loss mitigation personnel and increased servicing costs.'"
"Walsh said that as more loans fall into the seriously delinquent bucket, servicer costs could rise. 'Based on the data that we have now, productivity is actually continuing to increase, but that’s only for through the first half of 2020,' she said. 'Same thing happened for those of you that were around in 2009, whereby we had very high delinquencies and our costs hadn’t quite caught up yet and as loans get more delinquent and are seriously delinquent, that’s when the real costs start to really come into play.'"
"'We do expect in 2021 that as these loans are in the seriously delinquent stage, especially for servicers with large FHA pool — FHA loans as a percentage of their overall volume — we would expect to see the servicing costs go up and productivity drop and continued hiring of loss mitigation specialists,' Walsh said."
From Bankrate. "The federal regulator who oversees mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has compromised on a widely pilloried fee on mortgage refinances, but he’s not backing down. Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said the 0.5 percent fee on refinances, set to take effect Dec. 1, is crucial to shoring up nation’s mortgage market. Without the fee, Calabria said, Fannie and Freddie — which back about two-thirds of U.S. mortgages — could collapse in a housing crisis."
"'It is critical to remember that this fee covers losses that are the result of policies that have helped millions of Americans stay safe in their homes during a global pandemic,' Calabria told the Mortgage Bankers Association’s virtual conference."
"The Federal Housing Finance Agency roiled the housing industry in August, when it announced the surprise fee would take effect Sept. 1. After an outcry from Realtors, mortgage bankers and housing economists, the agency backed off a bit — it delayed the fee until Dec. 1, and it said the surcharge wouldn’t be due on loans of less than $125,000.'"
"Calabria said in August that defaults and the generous mortgage relief extended to borrowers during the coronavirus pandemic would cost Fannie and Freddie $6 billion — a rounding error for two enterprises with a combined $5.7 trillion in their loan portfolios. But Calabria offered little else in defense of the fee. During prepared remarks Monday, he laid out a detailed case."
"'When I walked in the door at FHFA, Fannie and Freddie were leveraged about 1,000 to 1,' Calabria said. 'If the enterprises had still been leveraged 1,000 to 1, they would have already failed in response to COVID. On the other hand, if Fannie and Freddie had more capital when COVID hit, they would have been able to provide even more support.'"
"'Fannie and Freddie’s combined leverage ratio is now down to roughly 250 to 1,' Calabria said. 'This is certainly better than 1,000 to 1. But it is not close to safety and soundness. In their current condition, Fannie and Freddie will fail in a serious housing downturn.'"