The Perfect Breeding Ground For The Winner’s Curse
It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "A San Diego-based mortgage lender has agreed to pay nearly $25 million to resolve allegations that it knowingly approved ineligible loans that later defaulted, resulting in mortgage insurance claims to the Federal Housing Administration, the Department of Justice announced Thursday. The settlement resolves allegations that Guild approved ineligible loans, failed to comply with material program rules that require lenders to maintain quality control and failed to self-report materially deficient loans that it identified."
"'We are seeing less buyer activity in the condo and townhouse market,' said Sandy Jamison, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. 'Showing appointments are down and days on market are climbing. Many sellers are having to reduce their prices to attract buyers to their units over the competition.'"
"A penthouse at Eighty Seven Park sold for $37 million, marking the highest price sale at the Miami Beach luxury condo tower. The Renzo Piano-designed Eighty Seven Park in North Beach had much higher hopes for the sale price of the penthouse. The two-story unit went on the market with an asking price of $68 million in 2018. It sold for 46 percent below that asking price."
"The unthinkable has happened: For the first time in nearly a decade, Manhattan rents have dipped below $3,000 per month. For the first time in a decade, asking rents fell in Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens last quarter, according to StreetEasy’s Q3 market report. As rents plummet across the city, inventory and concessions are soaring and landlords have to swallow the loss. 'Landlords across the city, but particularly in Manhattan, have to be willing to face some really hard hits if they want to fill their units,” said Nancy Wu, the listing portal’s chief economist."
"Rents for Class-A apartments in the D.C. area last quarter fell by 7%, according to Delta Associates, the most severe rent decline the firm has ever recorded. The rent drop was most pronounced in the District and other high-rise areas throughout the region, while suburban areas remained relatively stable. Suburban Maryland experienced a 2.4% rent drop, while Northern Virginia rents fell 7.2% and D.C. rents fell 10.7%. 'The exodus we're hearing about from cities is not limited to D.C.; it's happening in other cities like New York and San Francisco,' Delta Associates President Will Rich said."
"The Toronto rental housing market has pulled a 180. Crystal Chen, an analyst with rental-market tracker PadMapper, says landlords are now offering a slew of incentives. 'I’ve seen two months of free rent with at least a year-long lease as well as things like six months of free parking or storage,' she said. 'It’s definitely a crazy time and property managers are desperate to fill vacancies. If anyone is looking for a good deal, the next couple of months are a good time to be moving.'"
"Condos reached a point of oversupply a few years ago. 'The issue with some condos — not all — is that a lot of the owners paid more when the market was higher and now are in a market where the prices have come down to where the mortgage might be, putting them under water,' said Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatchewan Realtors® Association."
"The cost of renting a room in London has fallen, according to data from Hamptons International. The biggest discount was in Aldgate, EC3, where room rents dropped 34 per cent to £983 per month. This was followed by the W9 postcode, covering Maida Vale and Little Venice, where room rents fell 20 per cent to £824; and SW1, home to Westminster, Belgravia and Pimlico, where rents dropped 17 per cent to £922 per month. 'Once again, London dominates the headlines in terms of falling rents, and it’s generally the most expensive neighbourhoods that are worst affected,' says Matt Hutchinson of SpareRoom."
"Lansdowne Place apartment returns to market seeking €1.45m. The upscale residential apartment scheme launched in 2017 to much fanfare. These features were what attracted the owners to number 12, a third-floor two-bedroom apartment in the Templeton building, paying €1.65 million for it, according to the property price register. 'It was the right move at the time,' says one half of the couple."
"In the world's big financial centres — from New York to Toronto to London to Sydney — rents for inner-city apartments are plunging. 'You're daft if you aren't negotiating lower rent right now,' said Tim Lawless, Asia-Pacific head of research for CoreLogic Inc. 'Supply is high and occupancy has fallen off a cliff.'"
"Christine Chung, 26, is one of those taking advantage. She just managed to negotiate a 9% drop in rent for the house she shares with three others in Sydney's trendy Enmore neighbourhood about 10km from the city centre. 'I'll push for another rent reduction at the end of the lease,' Chung said. 'The market has changed.'"
"The median monthly rent for a studio in San Francisco tumbled 31% in September from a year earlier to US$2,285, according to Realtor.com. In downtown Toronto, home to the second-largest financial centre in North America behind New York, apartments are piling up. Rents have plunged, down 14.5% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, according to Urbanation Inc. 'Applicants are noticeably fewer,' London West End appraiser Mark Wilson told the RICS survey. 'Rents are still a one-way bet in our view, and it's south.'"
"Apartment rents in Auckland Central West fell 9.7 per cent over the September quarter, compared to the same period a year ago, and rents in Auckland Central East fell 5.6 per cent; both areas have a significant student population. Developers have also been less likely to want to build apartments in Auckland, with consents down 50 per cent for the three months to August, compared to the same time last year."
"'Not only can they not get financing for these projects, without having people come into them there is not as much activity,' said Infometrics economist Brad Olsen. 'A lot of the time these apartments are bought by investors in the inner city to rent out to others, particularly international students.'"
"The turmoil unleashed by the coronavirus caused a sharp plunge in house values in NSW and Victoria, new real time data shows. Property transactions processed on e-conveyancing platform PEXA show that for the first nine months of this year residential values slumped 9 per cent in NSW and 14 per cent in Victoria. Commercial real estate has been hit harder by the pandemic than residential properties, with values falling 14 per cent in NSW for the first nine months of the year."
"'Analysing previous housing cycles and key economic drivers suggests that in the medium term, house prices and new loan commitments will decline further,' it said."
"There’s no question Australian housing auctions are high-stakes contests. And this phenomenon now has a name – the ‘winner’s curse’. Stanford University economists Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson suggest the winner’s curse occurs when a bidder believes they paid a higher value for an asset – anything from property to gold – than it’s actual worth. University of Melbourne professor in property Piyush Tiwari told The New Daily housing auctions are the perfect breeding ground for the winner’s curse."
"Unlike stock markets where information is processed in real-time, he said bidders weigh up what the Stanford researchers call ‘common values’ – like location and pricing trends – with ‘private values’ – such as how much they personally believe a swimming pool is worth. 'People who participate in auctions, such as mums and dads, do not process this information the same way,' Professor Tiwari said. 'And what’s happening right now (in the pandemic) is the information we have is uncertain, there’s a lot of noise in the data and there’s a possibility we may see much higher values paid for property than its intrinsic value.'"
"President of the Real Estate Buyers’ Agents Association of Australia Cate Bakos told The New Daily there are a number of reasons why buyers have a false impression of how much a home is really worth. Auctioneers tap into buyers’ anxieties to force them into a decision in the heat of the moment, while some agents may not provide a 'completely honest' quote to their clients, she said."
"Calls from laid-off Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd pilots began arriving at OKAY Property Agency Ltd not long after the Hong Kong airline announced one of the biggest job cuts in global aviation. In Tung Chung about 60 renters have surrendered their leases over the past three months, said Joe Lee, a senior area sales manager at Midland Realty Ltd. 'I’ve never seen so many people giving up their rented apartments in my career,' Lee said."
"Some landlords in the area are now happy to find takers at HK$85,000 for properties previously going for HK$110,000, said Nina Schulte-Mattler, a senior manager in the residential division of OKAY Property. Other landlords have downsized to the HK$40,000 to HK$60,000 price range, where demand is more stable, she said."
"Rickie So, a property agent with Century 21 Newcourt Realty in Discovery Bay, has seen about 50 properties in that price range drop their rent by 15 to 20 percent in the past two months in anticipation of layoffs. Further price cuts could start emerging in a couple of months, So said."