The Sudden Bountiful Supply Is Putting Pressure On Prices
A report from the Honolulu Civil Beat. "Erina Peters, a single mom who has called Hawaii home since she was 3 years old, packed up her things and made the tough decision to relocate to Nevada in mid-February. The worsening pandemic and its ripple effect on the tourism industry, which both of her two jobs relied on, threatened her livelihood, she said. It wasn’t going to be worth 'killing yourself to try to survive in a place that was already pricing locals out.' Then it became clear the virus was not only going to kill people, but jobs, too. 'My industry is dead,' said Peters, who worked in timeshare and bartending while in Hawaii."
From Hawaii News Now. "A lack of job opportunities and no communication from the state’s unemployment office is driving some Hawaii residents to pack up their bags and move to the mainland. Thirty-year-old Daniel Jalomo is preparing to head out to California in just a few weeks as finding work on the island has been a challenge. 'You look at Craigslist every day, there’s no jobs,' said Jalomo."
"Tiana Romkee, 27, is also planning to leave the state. She was laid off from her jobs as an esthetician and server. She’s also in the process of moving to California. 'I have to work. I have to get some sort of assistance. We have to pay bills, you know, I’m missing payments left and right, so at this point it’s a matter of survival,' said Romkee."
From Business Den in Colorado. "While single-family homes around the region have been selling at record prices, the number of condominiums available in downtown Denver keeps climbing. 'There are houses averaging over $600,000 that can’t stay on the market for more than a few days, and then downtown, you have condos that aren’t selling or having to drop their prices,' said Lori Greenly, founder of Denver-High Rise Living. Her firm specializes in downtown condos. 'We have many things at play, like the election, COVID, and the rough homeless issue. It’s the perfect storm, and here we sit.'"
"In Denver’s 80202 ZIP code, which encompasses most of downtown, there were 193 active listings at the end of August, up nearly 50 percent from August 2019 and 112 percent from August 2018, according to data from REColorado."
The Denver Channel in Colorado. "Downtown Denver used to be so full of life before the COVID-19 pandemic. 'Downtown is kinda silent, and it's kind of a 180 from last year,' Denver High-Rise Living founder Lori Greenly said. Inventory downtown is up about 50% from last year and currently a number of price reductions. 'I’m tracking these price reductions in 80202 right now, because there's some pretty sweet deals,' Greenly said."
From Alexandria Living Magazine. "A former Lockheed Martin Corp. CEO is selling a massive home along the Potomac River northeast of Fort Hunt for $60 million, the Wall Street Journal first reported. Another East Boulevard Drive property, originally listed for $38 million, has had a serious price reduction and is now listed at $14 million."
From Real Estate Business Online. "The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt more severely in Southern California than in most areas of the country. The Southland’s high concentration of employment in the tourism and entertainment sectors made it especially vulnerable to the effects of social distancing protocols and the reluctance of many to board commercial aircraft. Are Class A investments the contemporary real estate equivalents of a white elephant or the next great buying opportunity? How much further may rents fall?"
"The densest clusters of millennial renters are found in Central San Diego, Mission Valley, University City, Carmel Valley and Solano Beach. A closer examination suggests that tenant attrition was largely attributable UCSD and CSSD students vacating off-campus housing when it became apparent that in-class instruction was canceled for 2020. Submarkets with large student populations accounted for a large percentage of the net tenant losses and a substantial share of rent trend weakness."
"Average rent in September settled to the lowest level in twenty-eight months, 1.4 percent below September 2018. Class A rents in Downtown buildings plummeted 4.83 percent over the trailing 12 months ending in September to $2,455, a figure 2.22 percent below the September 2017 level! Moreover, while renters continue to absorb space in new buildings at a constructive pace, concessions are rising, in some instances reaching the equivalent of 15 percent of asking rent."
"Will rents fall further? Nothing in the September data indicates otherwise. Average rent declined in every submarket in September. Seasonally weaker demand and further student lease expirations could exert still more pressure on rents in the fall. Investment returns, particularly in Class A, are down and won’t improve through year’s end or longer."
The San Mateo Daily Journal in California. "The pandemic ripped open a widening gap on the local real estate market, as home sale prices continue ticking upward through the summer while rents are dropping at unprecedented rates. Median rents reached $2,215 for a one-bedroom unit in the city of San Mateo according to the October report from rental website Apartmentlist, marking a 3.7% dip from the previous month and steep 11.9% drop from the same time last year."
"The price drops are not specific to San Mateo, said the report, which indicated the general Bay Area is experiencing widespread declines — most notably in San Francisco, where prices plummeted 20% from the year prior."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "On the front lines of Toronto’s cooling condominium apartment market, agents are contending with selling and leasing conditions that are upside-down compared with just a few months ago. Investor-owned condos seem particularly vulnerable to the shifts in the rental market, which has been softened by factors including the arrival of thousands of newly completed condos and a decline in immigration and student tenants. And now there are signs the tenant shortage has sent a price signal to the resale market, too."
"'We are getting two, three calls per day [from tenants] to renegotiate,' says Sundeep Bahl of UrbanCondo, a company that helps investor clients purchase presale condominiums and then manages the units for them once construction is complete. Mr. Bahl says he has 72 listings currently active on the Multiple Listing Service and has three associates working with him to handle the increased turnover. 'There’s no new tenants; we’re just recycling them from one unit to another. Some are taking advantage of the situation, to be honest with you. They see the unit down the hallway that’s $300 cheaper and they say ‘I’m leaving.'"
"Mr. Bahl says UrbanCondo has close to 600 units under management. Some owners have one or two condos in their portfolio, some have many more. Sometimes his clients want to call the tenants' bluff and list the unit for sale or for lease and see which offer gets taken up first. But lately, what happens instead is the landlord ends up with neither a sale nor a tenant."
"'There’s the risk of losing the tenant and the property not selling … [and] I can’t find you another tenant. We used to have 10-12 units up for lease [at a given time], now it’s 80 units,' he says. 'I’ll put a unit for sale in one building and [get] not a single showing on some of these properties.'"
"In January, active listings Toronto sat at just more than 1,300 units, the lowest inventory in about a decade. Starting in June and July, listings soared well above the average, reaching almost 5,000 by August. In September, it’s now more than 6,000. At the same time, buying activity has stayed relatively constant. The sudden bountiful supply is also putting pressure on prices."
"'Despite a partial rebound from the spring, sales are down 14 per cent year to date and have fallen to their lowest level since 2013,' says Shaun Hildebrand, president of real estate analysis firm Urbanation Inc. In August, Toronto resale condo prices were down 11 per cent from their March high."
"Many downtown condo buildings have witnessed price declines compared with the pre-COVID-19 market amid surging listings. At the 1,343-unit Ice Condos across from the Scotiabank Arena – buildings well known to have a high rate of Airbnb use – there are currently 43 units available for sale and 126 up for lease. Where a one-bedroom, 500-square-foot apartment sold in January for $632,000, two units of similar size and amenities sold at $559,000 and $599,000 between July and September."
"'It looks to me that prices are going to start showing annual declines by October or November given the current state of the market,' Mr. Hildebrand says. 'But keep in mind the current average is nearly $750,000 and has grown by 67 per cent over the past five years.'"
"That history of price growth explains, in part, the whiplash some owners are feeling. 'You have to remember the market was absolutely nuts right before the pandemic. In January/February, everything was going way over asking, 10 offers were common,' says Andrew La Fleur, an agent with Re/Max Condos Plus Corp. Brokerage who specializes in condos for investors. Mr. La Fleur said he’s seen the steepest price correction among units more than $800,000. 'Prices were up in [February] in some cases $100,000 from October, 2019. So it’s been a dramatic turnaround to say the least.'"
"Mr. Bahl says he thinks it could take 18 months to two years for some of his clients' investments to recover, even if rents have fallen to essentially 2017 levels and rent controls make them difficult to escalate quickly. But it may also just be a small setback for a class of investors who have had a good run so far."
"'People have been playing this game, they’ve seen unprecedented growth for the last 10-15 years. Until recently it was a no brainer: You were bound to make money,' Mr. Bahl says."