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Going Through The Same Market-Wide Cool Down

A report from the Aspen Times in Colorado. “After owning a West End property for more than a decade, the city of Aspen is ready to unload a house that has served as a multimillion-dollar rental unit. The city put the three-bedroom, two-bathroom house located at 312 W. Hyman Ave. on the market in the spring. It was originally listed for $4.9 million with broker Andrew Ernemann, who represents the city in real estate holdings and works at Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International.”

“‘That didn’t gain traction,’ Assistant City Manager Barry Crook said of the original asking price, so it was knocked down to $4.4 million this summer. Still not attracting a buyer, the city is now asking for $3.95 million.”

From Seattle PI in Washington. “You may have heard Seattle is experiencing a cool down. Not so fast. The market is definitely slowing within the city (if not Thurston County), but that doesn’t mean that prices have dipped all that much. The median closed sale price fell by about $45,000 from the month before, but it was still up $30,000 from the same time last year, according to the latest Northwest Multiple Listing Service report.”

“Some good news is that condo prices are going through the same market-wide cool down as single-family homes: Active listings jumped nearly 58 percent, and closed transactions dropped off by about 15 percent. It’s also not a sign of a pending bubble or rapid inflation, as far as brokers can tell.”

“‘Even with some doom and gloom about sales being down in many counties, inventory doubling in some areas, and appreciation holding at around 8 percent for the year, our market is still very healthy and recovering from the depleted inventory of the past three years,’ said George Moorhead, designated broker, Bentley Properties, Bothell.”

The Santa Cruz Sentinel in California. “Mom-and-pop landlords were among those appealing to the Santa Cruz City Council this week seeking an alternative to Measure M. The sellers of a three-bedroom house at 119 Chrystal Terrace in Santa Cruz, which was a rental, listed it for $1.125 million in March.”

“One deal fell through and after the price was dropped three times, the home sold this month for $930,000.”

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This Post Has 35 Comments

  1. ‘that doesn’t mean that prices have dipped all that much’

    They haven’t? Oh, I guess I better wait then.

    ‘Even with some doom and gloom about sales being down in many counties, inventory doubling in some areas, and appreciation holding at around 8 percent for the year, our market is still very healthy and recovering from the depleted inventory of the past three years’

    Cheer up George. I know it’s been great these past few years, raking in tons of commission for doing almost nothing. But hey! You saved almost all of it and…what’s that? You didn’t save much. Oh dear…

    1. Imagine the kinda day these guys are having George:

      ‘Months after HNA Group Co began reversing a $40bn overseas buying spree and suspended trading in seven listed units, investors have put a price on the turmoil: $10bn. That’s how much the subsidiaries had lost in market value as of yesterday, when HNA Technology Co plunged in Shanghai, where it traded for the first time since January.’

      ‘Since the suspensions started being lifted months ago, the seven units have lost about a quarter of their total market value, underscoring the challenges the aviation-to-hotels conglomerate faces as it sells assets to pay down one of Asia’s largest debt piles.’

      ‘While HNA has offloaded more than $17bn in real estate and shareholdings, the group missed payments on a 300mn yuan ($44mn) loan earlier this month, a sign that liquidity is still a problem.’

      1. “HNA’s plans have also been complicated by the sudden death of 57-year-old Co-Chairman Wang Jian in July.
        Wang was said to be the mastermind behind the purchase of many of the assets that are now being sold.”

        Wow I guess the communists elites werent too happy with Wang decisions LOL.

    2. I’m sure George hasnt been buying his own BS and has been diligently saving all his money for when the crash will occur…OR he might be was one of the speculators. What’s more likely?

  2. What will surging mortgage rates do to Housing Bubble 2.0?

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/09/26/surging-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed-house-price-bubble/

    The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) and a 20% down-payment jumped to 4.97% for the week ending September 21, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported this morning. A week ago, it was still at 4.88%. This is the highest average rate since the brief mini-spike that topped out in March 2011 at 5.01%. The last time before March 2011 that we saw this kind of average rate was in May 2010 (chart via Investing.com):

    1. If you currently own a property with a mortgage that has an interest rate of less than 4%, then it’s going to be very difficult to move on to another property if your new rate will be around 5% or so.

      This translates into fewer and fewer transactions in the years ahead.

  3. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/119-Chrystal-Ter-Santa-Cruz-CA-95060/16107969_zpid/

    Date Event Price
    09/06/18 Sold $930,000+3.4%
    08/06/18 Pending sale $899,000
    08/03/18 Price change $899,000-9.6%
    07/22/18 Price change $995,000-7.4%
    07/03/18 Price change $1,075,000-4.4%
    04/12/18 Back on market $1,125,000
    04/06/18 Pending sale $1,125,000
    03/05/18 Listed for sale $1,125,000+150%
    12/27/11 Sold $450,000-7.2%
    12/02/11 Listed for sale $484,900-30.5%
    09/29/11 Sold: Foreclosed to lender $697,783+39.8%
    05/08/11 Listing removed $499,000
    03/18/11 Price change $499,000-5%
    02/24/11 Price change $525,000-8.7%
    02/16/11 Listed for sale $575,000+29.8%
    09/03/99 Sold $443,000

    2. The market here in Santa Cruz is coming down fast. I look daily and see almost all properties that have been on for more than 10 days reducing there price (albeit unrealistic starting prices). This flyer showed up on my door step a few days ago. http://imgur.com/gallery/RrVjbA9 it must be outdated, a best effort attempt to lure a FB before they find out!

    3. >09/03/99 Sold $443,000

      That’s pretty rich for 1999, but the .com bubble in nearby San Jose was at a fever pitch about that time.

  4. “Active listings jumped nearly 58 percent, and closed transactions dropped off by about 15 percent. It’s also not a sign of a pending bubble or rapid inflation, as far as brokers can tell.”

    Since REIC toads are willfully blind to what’s really going on here, let’s just say it loud and clear: The data doesn’t lie – Housing Bubble 2.0 is bursting.

    1. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”

      -Upton Sinclair

  6. Testing my first comment from cell phone. Love the new home for the blog. For some reason my ipad does not pick up the address with just typing a few letters, but my phone does.

  7. I wonder how much ‘expectation’ from sites like Zillow have been effecting the seller side? An acquaintance in San Francisco told me her husbands checks their property value on Zillow every day. Mmmmm… and at one point do those numbers start to reflect reality?

    1. “An acquaintance in San Francisco told me her husbands checks their property value on Zillow every day.”

      Hope he’s not planning to sell at the Zillow peak…by that time it may only be worth half as much.

    2. Checks Zillow every day? The house isn’t the stock ticker where you click to see how it’s performing. What does he think will happen? Earnings come in higher than expected?

    3. Yep. Here in Portland suburbs I’m looking at a house for sale with a Zestimate of $648k selling for $599k. One year Zillow forecast? $662k.

    4. A former co-worker used to have a Schwab ticker on his desktop. Whenever the market was down his mood turned dour. I don’t think he liked his job… just there for the paycheck.

  8. Anecdotal but significant development in my corner of West LA. I am seeing open house signs on Tuesdays. This truly had not happened in years. Even Sunday open houses had almost vanished , but I don’t think I had seen a Tuesday open house since 2013 or thereabouts. There is no flood of new listings. It’s the same houses at the same crazy prices, but realtors are working harder.

  9. A 1/4 of 1 percent rate hike and people are complaining. If you can’t maneuver that slim margin you are a FB. But what do I know, I’m a broke loser renter!

  10. Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like we’re getting noticeably less traffic since switching to the new format. I’m not sure why that is, since it’s usable on both mobile and desktop/laptop (I’m on a laptop right now).

    2. Depends on the type of traffic you are looking for.

      It might take a while for the search engines to catch up to bring in new searchers. Losing the JT extension hurts for the desktop regulars but shouldn’t affect lurkers that check no more than once a day.

  11. “After owning a West End property for more than a decade, the city of Aspen is ready to unload a house that has served as a multimillion-dollar rental unit.”

    Why did the city of Aspen own a multimillion-dollar rental home?

  12. Hmm….
    ———————————–
    Apartment rents are suddenly rising faster, reversing yearlong trend

    Rents in the third quarter of this year were up 2.9 percent compared with a year ago, according to RealPage, a real estate analytics firm.
    That’s up from 2.5 percent annual growth in the second quarter.

    The apartment occupancy rate is quite high at 95.8 percent, up from 95.4 percent in the second quarter.

    Apartment demand is being strengthened by an improving economy and a shortage of homes for sale.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/26/apartment-rents-are-suddenly-rising-faster-reversing-year-long-trend.html

  13. -The Santa Cruz Sentinel in California. “Mom-and-pop landlords were among those appealing to the Santa Cruz City Council this week seeking an alternative to Measure M-

    This measure, if passed, will accelerate the declines in Santa Cruz RE quick. Any and all investors left looking to purchase SC RE will run for the exits.

    https://www.santacruztogether.com/measure-m-summary/

    1. As California goes so does the country…. into a frightening abyss of an ever expanding welfare state, open borders, totalitarian tech companies, renegade central government filled with Communist apparatchiks and other unaccountable sloths.

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