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Homes Are Sitting On The Market Longer, And Price Cuts Are Becoming More Common

A report from the Orange County Register in California. “Last month saw Southern California home sales fall 11.7 percent from February 2018 levels, with just 13,466 houses, condos and townhomes changing hands, CoreLogic reported. That’s the smallest sales tally for a February in 11 years. Over the past decade, February averaged 15,000 transactions. Home sales in the six-county region have been down 11 of the past 12 months. With sales ebbing, prices barely budged– and even fell in Orange County for the first time since 2012.”

“‘We expect buyers to enter the peak buying season a little more confidently than at the end of 2018,’ CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin wrote in a recent commentary about Tuesday’s S&P Case-Shiller numbers showing home prices rising by the smallest margin in years. ‘Homes are sitting on the market longer, and price cuts are becoming more common.'”

“CoreLogic figures showed home sales fell in all six counties, with declines ranging from 8.1 percent in San Diego County to 17.1 percent in Orange County. Sales were down 8.9 percent in Riverside County, 11.8 percent in Los Angeles County, 12 percent in Ventura County and 13.8 percent in San Bernardino County. Orange County’s median, meanwhile, fell $10,000 or 1.4 percent to $700,000.”

“The price drop surprised Costa Mesa broker Colin Delaney, who works throughout Orange County’s beach cities. ‘The neighborhoods I work in haven’t had price drops,’ he said. But ‘high-end neighborhoods in Laguna Beach and Newport Beach, those prices have come down.'”

From CNBC. “During the first three weeks of March, a mere 16 percent of buyer offers written by real estate brokerage Redfin faced a bidding war. That is a sharp drop from the 61 percent a year earlier. While San Francisco, Boston, San Diego and Portland, Oregon, see about 1 in 5 offers in a bidding war, those are all down from over 65 percent of offers a year earlier.”

“‘At this time last year, in cities like San Francisco, Seattle and Boston it was rare for a home not to receive multiple offers. The tide has turned,’ said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. ‘Since the market began to cool down last fall, the number of homes for sale has grown each month, giving buyers more options and more negotiating power. Buyers are searching with less urgency and more frequently able to win offers with contingencies.'”

“Seattle, which has been one of the nation’s most competitive markets, with prices rising by double-digit percentages for several years, is cooling dramatically. Just 17 percent of offers written by Redfin involved bidding wars, down from 72 percent a year earlier.”

From New Jersey Advanced Media. “These days, the 8,977-square-foot mansion — on which Terrell Owens lost more than $2 million when he finally sold it in 2010 — is still known among locals as the ‘T.O. home.’ But it has not fared well on the real estate market since Owens bought it for $3.9 million in 2004.”

“It has been on the market since February 2018, and in the past year it has seen its listing price slashed seven times. It is currently priced at $2.2 million, according to its Zillow listing. The home was last assessed for nearly $1.7 million, and the property taxes were $42,625 in 2018, according to Zillow.”

From Patch Gig Harbor in Washington. “Sitting on a half-acre plot on the north side of Canterwood Golf & Country Club in Gig Harbor, this 5,000-square-foot French Chateau-style home exudes elegance and luxury. Built in 1989, the home was last sold for $850,000 in 2017. Now on the market for $1,165,000, the four-bedroom, four-bathroom home has seen a few amazing upgrades over the years.”

“Price: $1,165,000. Features: Price Reduction!!!!”

This Post Has 45 Comments
  1. I looked up the shack at the last link:

    Date Event Price
    1/7/2019 Price change $1,165,000 -2.5%
    11/5/2018 Price change $1,195,000 -7.7%
    10/3/2018 Listed for sale $1,295,000 +52.4%
    11/27/2017 Sold $850,000 -4%
    9/6/2017 Pending sale $885,000 —
    8/30/2017 Price change $885,000 -1.6%
    8/23/2017 Pending sale $899,000 —
    8/11/2017 Price change $899,000 -10%
    7/2/2017 Price change $999,000 -13.1%
    5/30/2017 Listed for sale $1,150,000 +35.5%
    8/7/2013 Listing removed $849,000 —
    6/26/2013 Price change $849,000 -3.5%
    6/26/2013 Price change $879,999 -2.2%
    5/17/2013 Listed for sale $899,950 +15.4%
    5/1/2012 Listing removed $779,950 —
    3/12/2012 Listed for sale $779,950 +22.8%
    9/15/2003 Sold $635,000 +41.1%
    10/18/2000 Sold $450,000 +8.4%
    11/19/1998 Sold $415,000 —

    1. “10/3/2018 Listed for sale $1,295,000 +52.4%
      11/27/2017 Sold $850,000 -4%

      9/15/2003 Sold $635,000 +41.1%
      10/18/2000 Sold $450,000 +8.4%”

      If they were able to get 40%+ returns between 2000 and 2003,
      why not try for the same between 2017 and 2018?

  2. “The home was last assessed for nearly $1.7 million, and the property taxes were $42,625 in 2018, according to Zillow.”

    Over 580K in property taxes but at least it was CHEAPER THAN RENTING! Remember DOOMED said rich people dont care about sh*tting money down the toilet!

    1. “The home was last assessed for nearly $1.7 million, and the property taxes were $42,625 in 2018, according to Zillow.”

      New Jersey is one of those states to avoid at all costs as it soaks every homeowner who’s not plugged into the graft machine.

      Interestingly, many municipalities operate on a method where they set the budget for the year first, then divide up the amount by each taxable properties* share assessed share of the total. That way it is possible for assessed values to fall while the tax bill still goes up.

      * Taxable properties – I say this because I’ve seen and lived in places where some properties get “special consideration” such as no tax or ridiculously low valuations, or somehow exempt from annual increases or re-assessments. For example, when I lived outside the DFW area, I noticed that the Mayor’s house – one of the biggest in town and waterfront on the lake (which was down the street from me, was assessed at about 1/10th the value of his very similar neighbor’s homes. Good old Boy network indeed.

          1. “Yup, I’m still here, donkin’ away.”

            If I have to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I am also a donkey.

          2. I’m a recovering former donkey, as are those of my over-35 relatives who are not current donkeys. The under-35 set is too financially strapped with the debts of the fathers to be able to join the homedebtors’ club.

      1. Lol. Irvine schools. You mean asian parents. The teaching is not better than the worst schools in Anaheim, the kids are just way more obedient. Their test scores only indicate that they’re going to make adequate little middle managers and excellent debt slaves for Mr. Banker.

    1. I’m still waiting for someone in one of these articles to say it: soft landing. They want to say it but are holding back. One of these days one of these experts is going to slip up say “soft landing” and a deafening and ominous silence tinged with dread and laced with fear and panic is going to spread across the landscape.

      1. No Worries… Home Prices Coming in for a SOFT Landing
        Ocean Atlantic Sotheby’s International Realty
        March 5, 2019

        Home prices have appreciated considerably over the last five years. This has some concerned that we may be in for another dramatic correction. However, recent statistics suggest home values will not crash as they did a decade ago. Instead, this time they will come in for a soft landing.

  3. 42k tax on property assessed at 1.7m. Would want to own any property there. Typical tax rates are about .8 to 1.2%, although sometimes bond debt or association fees can be worked in which places some individual developments into special taxing districts and not typical of the municipality. Still, around 3%, holly cow!

    1. Leveraged & Inverse Channel
      Homebuilder ETFs Find Strength from Falling Treasury Yields
      By Ben Hernandezon
      March 27, 2019
      Individual Investors Aren’t Scared Yet; They’re Buying The Dip
      Dow Drops Over 150 Points as Rising Yields Worry Investors
      Rising Rates, Low Affordability Continue to Deconstruct Homebuilder ETFs
      Will Low Industry Sentiment Topple Homebuilder ETFs?

      The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell on Wednesday, causing homebuilder exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to gain strength, such as the iShares US Home Construction ETF (BATS: ITB) and SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEArca: XHB).

      ITB gained 2.36 percent while XHB rose 1.15 percent in midday trading. Meanwhile, the rest of the capital markets fretted over Treasury yields.

      1. ” …Will Low Indu$try $entiment Topple Homebuilder ETF$? “Confused

        Let’$ review the “$wamp.only.I.can.drain$.it!” Former approache$ :

        Trump Mortgage couldn’t make cra$hing hou$ing market$ great again

        Published: Feb 29, 2016 | MarketWatch

        “I think it’s a great time to start a mortgage company,” Donald Trump told CNBC.

        It was April 2006.

        Sales of existing homes had hit a cycle high the previous September and had declined nearly every month after that. Confidence among home builders had peaked 10 months earlier, at the same time as new home sales, and had been on a steady descent ever since.

        Many economists and Wall Street analysts were warning about an impending downturn in housing. But, as the Washington Post reported Monday, Trump was unswayed.

        “How you react to the so-called housing bubble can be a barometer of your business personality,” Trump wrote in a September 2005 blog post, just before launching a new company called Trump

        The fate of a mortgage company launched just as housing was about to crater may say something about the GOP front-runner

        Trump’s confidence in his new venture bears a striking resemblance to his approach to governing. “I think the market is very good,” he told CNBC at the time. “We’re going to have a great company…it’s going to be a terrific company.” He also predicted the company would become an industry leader, the Post noted.

        The company brokered residential and commercial mortgages, for purchases and for refinancings, for prime and subprime borrowers.

        Trump’s choice for CEO, E.J. Ridings, told reporters that he expected the company to do $3 billion in business after launching, and to expand globally. Trump was planning to add a lending business, which would be subject to stricter regulations.

        Instead, after a year, the company closed after doing about $1 billion in business

  4. “Last month saw Southern California home sales fall 11.7 percent from February 2018 levels, with just 13,466 houses, condos and townhomes changing hands, CoreLogic reported. That’s the smallest sales tally for a February in 11 years.

    Surely this was an anomaly attributable to all the winter storms that hit Southern California last month.

    Oh, wait….

    1. Picked up model 3 on Monday. One of the top 3 purchases I’ve ever made in my life. Absolutely amazing to drive. You just have to drive one to understand I guess.

      1. I rode in my BIL’s $100K Tesla SUV. Definitely a fun toy for people with money to blow on luxury consumption items, plus a major advance in automotive technology. The masses will ultimately be grateful to Elon once the prices of his innovations trickle down in another decade or two.

        1. ” …once the price$ of his innovation$ trickle down in another decade or two. ”

          When eye.was.knee.high to a grasshopper, there were more VW Beetles than Mercedes $L’s

          Maybee that what needs to happen to the $100,000 per$onal tran$portation innovation$?

          $mart brand will be built in China as a Daimler-Geely joint

          Reuters|March 28, 2019

          “Daimler said on Thursday it would build the next generation of Smart-branded city cars at a purpose-built factory in China, and planned to share its expertise in manufacturing, engineering and design with Geely.

          The high cost of electric car batteries has made it hard for automakers to build affordable zero-emissions vehicles, leading several of them to strike alliances with Chinese partners.

          Daimler’s German rival BMW recently unveiled plans to build electric Minis in China, where production costs are low and demand for small electric cars is rising.”

          1. I always go by Edmund’s Total Cost of Ownership. There is a $35k model 3 available now. In 10 year’s time the total cost of ownership should be less than a Camry, Corolla, Civic, Mazda 3, Sonata, Elantra, etc.

          2. Something to do on my next All.aboard.Amtrak! visit to the City.of.Angeles …

            Petersen Museum Opens First Custom Electric Motorcycle Exhibit
            Elizabeth Puckett |motorious |March 27, 2019

            Opening in late April of this year, the Petersen Automotive Museum is set to become the very first to host a display completely dedicated to electric motorcycles. This exhibit has been dubbed the “Electric Revolution” and will explore the history and future of the electric bike. In the collection will be 21 examples of builds from custom shops and manufacturers alike.

            “As the transportation industry moves toward electric-powered vehicles, it is our responsibility as a museum to accurately represent this progression with our exhibits,” said Petersen Automotive Museum Executive Director Terry L. Karges. “Because of the growing popularity of e-bikes, we felt it was the right time to debut “Electric Revolution” and show our audience how these ultra-stylish and contemporary designs are pointing the way to the future.”

    2. More than just believe.

      I grew up in the shadow of Detroit, and am more than well aware of all the entrenched thinking the automakers have when it comes to cars.

      Elon Musk and Tesla have forced the Auto Industry worldwide to change more and faster than I would have believed possible given the industry’s built-in inertia. As for bringing electric cars ‘to the masses’ .. it’s already happening. The sub-50k Model 3 is here, and prices remain under pressure to come down. Here’s an electric Kia Niro going on sale starting around $38k in the next couple months w 200+ miles of range: All the global players are getting dealt in to the EV table.

  5. My MIL is in town, and she called about these condos, spoke directly to the developer:

    The 1,000 sqft 1bed/1bath units are going for $370k + $200-$250 HOA/mo. Developer claims half the units are already sold. Said project will be done in 2021. Insane.

    *As a side note, last week my MIL guessed that a 1bed/1ba condo would be about $40k here…

    1. Retirees from SF? Who would buy a 370k 1 br in Boise? Median household income 55-60k/yr. That’s 6-7 times median income for a 1 br condo. Condo fees, tax, and insurance coming in around 2200-2300$/month on a ~5k/month income. Monthly payment 45% of monthly income. So the median income in Boise doesn’t even get you a qualified mortgage on 1 br condo? The bubbliciousness is confounding.

      1. Ok I had to look it up on Craigslist. Upper end Ibr in Boise rents for 1200-1300/month. Something here does not compute. If this developer has ticker symbol, I might have short position to open.

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