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A Lot Of Speculative Purchasers Are Getting Nervous

A report from City News 1130 in Canada. “The bubble that’s been ballooning for years in Vancouver’s housing market is finally showing signs of bursting. With the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reporting sales fell 43.5 per cent in September compared to the same month last year, James Brander with UBC’s Sauder School of Business says it’s no surprise year-over-year sales have dropped more than 40 per cent.”

“‘Sooner or later, you know, bubbles do burst. Certainly, my sense is that we have hit the peak. I’m not predicting we’re going to have a big decline, but I would expect relative stability instead of just prices continuing up,’ Brander says.”

“‘Vancouver was basically in a real estate boom. People were buying because they thought prices would keep going up. A lot of speculative purchasers and right now, they’re getting nervous,’ he says, adding sales have also cooled down thanks to mortgage qualification rules now being more strict.”

“Al Krueger, a realtor with the 604 New Home Team, admits it is taking longer to sell a home. ‘Each week there’s more product coming out. Should we buy something now or wait? Next week, they’ll be more affordable?’ he says. ‘We’ve been having people take looks and people coming back for a second look, but the act of actually putting pen to paper, that is slower to take place.'”

The Epoch Times on China. “China Vanke Group, one of China’s biggest homebuilders, announced that it will slash by about half the price of its new townhouses in Xiamen, a city in the southeastern province of Fujian.”

“While price cuts to stimulate sales are common, the deep discount has created widespread furor amid the decreasing viability of the real-estate industry in China and a possible collapse of the property bubble.”

“The price tag for the townhouses has been slashed to 2.78 million yuan (about $404,700) from the original asking price of about 5 million yuan (about $730,000). They are sized at around 100 square meters, or roughly 1,000 square feet, with lots that measure about 300 square meters (3,200 square feet).”

“According to Vanke Chairman Yu Liang, the company is bracing for dim market prospects. He said in a speech last month that Vanke’s target was ‘survival’ and that the Chinese real-estate market is at a ‘turning point’ with a ‘decreasing future.’ At the end of September, Vanke organized an autumn conference in Shenzhen, southern China, where the theme was ‘survival,’ the mainland-based The Paper reported.”

“Xu Jiayin, founder of Evergrande Group, China’s second-largest property developer by sales, delivered a speech on Sept. 13 expressing his loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), saying, ‘I and everything that belongs to Evergrande were given by the CCP.’ His statements suggested desperate hope that the regime would protect Evergrande in the event of economic downturn.”

“On Sept. 26, a new development in Xi’an, northwest China, couldn’t find any buyers at the asking price. In other second-tier cities, such as Nancheng and Hefei, real-estate developers offered 25 to 35 percent discounts, with only mediocre results.”

From Newshub New Zealand. “A flood of new property listings has experts calling an end to a ‘flat market’ period. Realestate.co.nz released new figures showing 10,372 new listings across the country in September – that’s an 11.7 percent increase on the same month last year. But Auckland listings blow that number out of the water – up 31.9 percent.”

“Southland is also seeing a major upsurge of 21.2 percent, followed by Northland and Wellington, with each region up more than 13 percent. And last month also recorded an all-time high national average asking price – standing at $690,733, up from $659,309.”

“Property commentator Olly Newland is not optimistic. ‘I think it’s not as good a sign as you think. I think some people are panicking the market is slipping a little bit, and they want to put it on the market,’ he said. ‘The question will be: will there be the demand to match it? I suspect it’ll not be as hot a market as you think.'”

“‘With this influx of supply, vendors will have to be realistic about their pricing and ensuring that they are meeting the market and what buyers are willing to pay,’ says Realestate.co.nz spokeswoman Vanessa Taylor.. As it moves from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market, only the coming months will tell whether there’s the demand to meet the supply.”

This Post Has 34 Comments
  1. ‘I think some people are panicking the market is slipping a little bit, and they want to put it on the market’

    Isn’t that strange. I don’t feel anything like that.

    BTW, the China article is worth reading in full. Some deep poo has arrived.

    1. Greed and fear are among the animal spirits that Keynes identified as profoundly affecting economies and markets. Warren Buffett found an investing rule in acting contrary to such prevailing moods, advising that the timing of buying or selling stocks should be “fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” —Wiki

    2. I wonder how CrowDan will spin this news:

      ‘According to Vanke Chairman Yu Liang, the company is bracing for dim market prospects. He said in a speech last month that Vanke’s target was “survival” and that the Chinese real-estate market is at a “turning point” with a “decreasing future.” At the end of September, Vanke organized an autumn conference in Shenzhen, southern China, where the theme was “survival,” the mainland-based The Paper reported. ‘

      1. Ho Lee Fook:

        “For example, in March, a project in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, put 400 apartments on the market. On the first day of the sale, 10,000 people registered as potential buyers. Ultimately, 44,000 people competed for 400 apartments. Similar phenomena have occurred across many other cities, including Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Xi’an, Jinan, and Qingdao.”

        1. Fealty to Chinese Communist Party bosses will save you:

          ‘Xu Jiayin, founder of Evergrande Group, China’s second-largest property developer by sales, delivered a speech on Sept. 13 expressing his loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), saying, “I and everything that belongs to Evergrande were given by the CCP.” His statements suggested desperate hope that the regime would protect Evergrande in the event of economic downturn. ‘

          1. “I and everything that belongs to Evergrande were given by the CCP.”

            And we’re allowing these agents of a hostile power unfettered access to their primary target. Thanks a lot, globalist traitors.

          2. I am wondering what backs the Chinese currency when all these loans cant be paid back. Does the Chinese govt take over these companies – do they then cash in US treasuries

  2. Australian property price are falling FASTER
    Yahoo7 News-1 hour ago
    Australia’s housing downturn became faster and more widespread last month, according to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index for September. The decline was once …

    1. Short Hills, site of the first “Mall”. At that time pretty close to the highest income tax bracket in the country.

  3. “Certainly, my sense is that we have hit the peak. I’m not predicting we’re going to have a big decline, but I would expect relative stability instead of just prices continuing up,’ Brander says.”

    Nice attempt at damage control, REIC shill. The peak was hit months ago, and now the cratering is accelerating. We’ll have relative stability, all right – after a bloodbath of the speculators and FBs, and a return of true price discovery.

    1. The peak for Vancouver was April-May 2016. They are off huge numbers since. BTW, inventory was up 38% and even condos are cratering.

  4. China, where the theme was ‘survival,’ …

    Poor poor ADan.

    Don’t fret, I hear the crow is quite fluffy.

    I have thought for a long time that when the legs fall out from under their mountain of debt it will rock the world. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.

    1. Right on oil and right that Trump’s tariffs were killing China. You had China collapsing many years ago and ten dollar oil. Peter Navarro and i have always been on the same page on China. On oil I saw years ago and posted on this blog both that The Saudis did not have the capacity they claimed and due to rapid declines in shale well production and limited sweet spots $80 to $100 barrel oil was needed. Seems to me, you should be eating the crow these days. The amount of crow? I would say would be the Skye’s the limit. Too busy to play today.

        1. You and Professor are cut from the same cloth, both of you huge perma bears on oil and China. I do not have time to show your numerous posts claiming how crazy I was to believe that oil would head back in the $80 to $100 range because that is what is needed to make production profitable. Oil stayed down a little longer than I thought due to Yellen bucks but it was inevitable that we were going to reach these levels. Companies produced at a loss since idiots financed them. Almost funny that you and Prof talk about eating crow since it seems to be your diet. I would soon starve on the crow I need to eat. China did not crash under Obama and would not under any globalist. Trump changed things thus my opinion changed on the likelihood of a Chinese collapse. That said we are still not seeing a collapse just a correction and if China offers major concessions to Trump it can still save itself. The difference between Us is my opinion change when facts change you two just look for facts to back your opinion. Not uncommon but rather useless.

          1. my opinion change…

            It is a very special skill to change not only what your opinion is, but what it was.

            The trouble with unrepayable debt started in China before Trump. It was never a question of if, always a question of when.

  5. “‘Sooner or later, you know, bubbles do burst. Certainly, my sense is that we have hit the peak. I’m not predicting we’re going to have a big decline,…”

    I’m going to predict a massive decline for Vancouver, with lots of wailing, butthurt Chinese investor victims in the aftermath.

    I also predict that a cou6of years from now, Brander will credit himself with having called for a massive crash.

  6. Whatever became of the 20 percent downpayment requirement? We are soon to collectively experience the consequences of the lack thereof (again!).

    “The government did not want to hold HOLC mortgages, and investors feared buying them, since the families making payments had previously defaulted. So in 1934 Roosevelt established the Federal Housing Administration to provide mortgage insurance on HOLC loans. Borrowers paid a small FHA premium, and investors would be guaranteed their share of principal and interest payments. The FHA would eventually offer protection to loans made by private lenders as long as they issued mortgages with a 20 percent down payment and terms of at least twenty years. In 1938 the Federal National Mortgage Administration, commonly known as Fannie Mae, enabled this by purchasing government-insured mortgages, injecting additional capital into the lending industry.”

    https://longreads.com/2016/06/21/home-is-where-the-fraud-is/

    1. MHSA! (Make Housing Sane Again) No government sponsored down payment plans or insurance. Lenders must keep their loans. Interest rates 10% or more.

  7. I live in Langley, here is a video of six houses in a row for sale. Spoke with a guy who just bought a house for $900k, thinks he got the deal of the century because it was 1.2 million before, thinks he will make $300k in a couple of years market comes back..

    https://youtu.be/OJlBAFboCPc

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