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Sellers Betting That We’ve Reached The Peak

A report from Realtor.com. “The number of new listings on realtor.com® in September shot up 8% year over year, according to a recent report from realtor.com. That’s the biggest jump since 2013. ‘It’s a key inflection point,’ says Chief Economist Danielle Hale of realtor.com. ‘There are still more buyers in the market than homes for sale. But in some [parts of the country], the competition is among sellers to attract buyers.'”

“The influx of homes on the market is partly due to sellers betting that we’ve reached the peak of the market. So they’re rushing to list their homes and get top dollar while they can. Of the 45 largest housing markets, San Jose, CA, in the heart of Silicon Valley, saw the biggest boost in new listings, according to the report. It was followed by Seattle; Jacksonville, FL; San Diego; and San Francisco.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The number of ‘For Sale’ signs is growing in North Texas’ housing market. The Dallas-Fort Worth area has had one of the biggest increases in the country in the number of homes listed for sale, according to Realtor.com. D-FW ranked eighth among the 10 major U.S. markets with the greatest increase in home listings in September, up 14 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Realtor.com.”

“Local real estate market numbers show that almost 26,000 preowned single-family homes were listed for sale in August with North Texas real estate agents. That’s the highest volume in six years.”

“Nationwide, more than 465,000 new for-sale listings entered the market in September, up 8 percent from a year ago according to Realtor.com analysts, marking the largest yearly jump since 2013. The greatest home listings gains were in San Jose (up 113 percent) and Seattle (43 percent).”

The Washington Post. “The District is still in a sellers’ market, but it is a little easier to be a buyer now, says Dan Galloway, D.C. market manager for Redfin brokerage.”

“‘We’re still seeing competition for homes and multiple offers, but inventory has eased a little so we’re seeing three offers or so now instead of six or seven offers like we did last year,’ says Galloway. ‘There are also more price drops around the city.'”

From GeekWire. “For years, the number of available homes in hot markets like Seattle, Portland and San Francisco has been virtually zero, but in recent months that has changed. If the trend holds into next spring — the busiest time of year in real estate — some long-term consequences could be on the horizon, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said at the 2018 GeekWire Summit.”

“‘If next spring the buyers don’t come back in force willing to pay those prices, this is a change in the U.S. economy,’ Kelman said.”

“These warnings come as Redfin, as well as competitors Zillow, Offerpad, Open Door and others wade deeper into buying and selling houses themselves. After warning of a slowdown on an earnings call, Kelman said he ‘did walk down the hall to the Redfin Now team and say ‘take it easy on the number of houses we buy because we could end up unable to sell them.'”

This Post Has 26 Comments
  1. ‘Nationwide, more than 465,000 new for-sale listings entered the market in September’

    Shazam, almost half a million shacks just came out of nowhere!

    1. Gosh darn, all that new inventory must’ve sprouted out of the ground like mushrooms, since the REIC shills swore we had a shortage.

  2. ‘If next spring the buyers don’t come back in force willing to pay those prices, this is a change in the U.S. economy’

    ‘he ‘did walk down the hall to the Redfin Now team and say ‘take it easy on the number of houses we buy because we could end up unable to sell them.’

    That’s one of those self fulfilling deals Glenn. Plus, you are a chicken. Ba-caw! Get out there and take one for the team!

  3. “‘If next spring the buyers don’t come back in force willing to pay those prices, this is a change in the U.S. economy,’ Kelman said.”

    We buyers are more than happy to buy at peak housing bubble 2.0 prices….Just JOKING LOL

      1. “At the rate things are going I doubt we’ll have to wait for spring.”

        Ain’t it da trute! One gets the feeling that there’s a tsunami bearing down, gathering steam as it races across the ocean, and it could smack into shore any day now.

        Times like these, don’t be surprised if some other major event occurs, like a natural disaster or defense screw-up. Like Krakatoa at Yellowstone or EEEbola!

        1. Looks to me like a convergence of factors, including geopolitical tensions, possibly soaring oil costs (if you pay attention to what’s happening in the Middle East), the “emerging market” crisis, spiking yield rates on US debt (signifying a growing reluctance to lend money to Uncle Sam, given our profligate fiscal irresponsibility and the near-certainty of the Fed printing away all government and corporate debts and liabilities) and the staggering, unpayable debts racked up worldwide after ten years of central banker Keynesian lunacy. A bursting housing bubble is going to be the least of our troubles.

      2. This is an interesting topic as a correction could happen much faster this time as everybody now knows what’s possible. It’s also less taboo for MSM to write about potential price declines now.

        With stocks they halt the market when things get too crazy too fast, with housing there is no similar mechanism. Next spring will definitely be interesting because you can bet we’re going to hear a lot of “things will go back to normal next spring” quotes coming soon.

  4. “The greatest home listings gains were in San Jose (up 113 percent)…”

    To me this is yet more proof that houses in the SJ and SF Bay Area have been looked at more as speculative stock-&-option-type investments (or Chindian cash-vaults) than actual places to live.

    Too bad all these new home-moaners didn’t realize getting out from under these ‘investments’ isn’t as easy as logging into their brokerage and clicking the sell button.

  5. Now the mainstream press and RE players are coming out with fairly direct statements about housing outlook. This kind of publicity gets heard and puts clouds over the rampant optimism. This causes doubt, creates fear and precipitates action. Namely: selling motivation. I think things are going to accelerate rapidly and perhaps even quicker subsequent to the boom and bust cycle of 10 to 12 years ago. Confidence is a transitory thing. What seemed unthinkable to the masses just a couple of months ago is beginning to look plausible. A HODL moment is coming I believe. Start your preparations now.

    1. Precisely. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has been replaced by Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). The greedhead sellers and FBs who aren’t panicking fail to grasp how quickly housing fundamentals are deteriorating.

  6. Smooth move… I cut off my own username and post apparently.

    Anyway, I also meant to post that the consumer-tech-driven job market around here is still going strong. It’ll be very interesting watching from the sidelines when the virtuous cycle turns vicious once the debt-driven buying sprees stop, leading to reduced corporate revenues and mass layoffs.

    I’m also curious if the recent uptick in SJ inventory is due to a possible reduced Chinese buying-pool due to their own markets now crashing. I don’t think people realize just how much wealth, borrowed or otherwise, has been used to drive up values of pretty much everything around here.

    1. I think that’s the exact reason we are seeing RE sit and the Mania to hurry up and sell before your a permanent FB. There’s a link in the next post that reports on the drop out of Chinese investors. I’m also seeing a flood of homes hit the local market without photos which means to me that many want out ASAP. I can see the FB investor calling the realtor and saying “F staging and pictures, get this shack on the mls NOW!” Let the stampede begin!!!

  7. But make no mistake: Prices are still rising, and there aren’t enough homes to go around. Still, the uptick in homes going up for sale “will eventually shift the market from a seller’s market … to a buyer’s market,” says Hale.

    – KEEP BUILDING BOYZ

    1. NAR just can’t resist lying to the public. With one embarrassing event (usually involving fraud) after another, they just can’t resist.

      1. “After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September’s almost flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market,” Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, said in the report. “Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize.

        “But don’t expect the level to jump dramatically,” she said. “Plenty of buyers in the market are scooping up homes as soon as they’re listed, which will keep national increases relatively small for the time being.”

  8. I love reading articles from right before the last housing bubble burst because they have such a similar tone to what’s written now. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. Meanwhile I’m waiting this thing out living with my boomer parents.

    1. “I love reading articles from right before the last housing bubble burst …”

      We are at August 2005, IMHO, unable to refi or sell. The only thing missing are the 18″ spinner wheels.

  9. ‘It’s a key inflection point,’ says Chief Economist Danielle Hale of realtor.com. ‘There are still more buyers in the market than homes for sale.”

    Define “buyers,” Danielle. If you mean tire-kickers and looky-loos, you may be correct. If you mean creditworthy buyers willing to sign on Mr. Banker’s dotted line, you are full of sh*t.

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