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The Meaning Of Hot Has Changed

A report from Think Realty. “A new report from Warburg Realty indicates the New York City housing market has moved—’beyond any doubt’—into a buyer’s market. Warburg’sCEO Frederick Peters cited offers as low as 25 percent below asking prices as evidence. Peters noted the last time that phenomenon was seen was in 2009. According to Peters, ‘Some of these offers were even made on properties which had taken interim reductions from their original asking prices.'”

“Peters went on to note that New York City, like all housing markets, is highly localized. ‘Of course, there are exceptions [to the emerging trends],’ he wrote. ‘Apartments in great condition may still get several offers if priced correctly,’ and certain properties in Brooklyn remain hot. However, he added a caveat even in Brooklyn: ‘The meaning of ‘hot’ has changed.'”

“Peters said prices in the area are no longer rising and may have even receded. ‘The property which brought 10 offers 18 months ago may not bring three.’ He recommended serious sellers plan to settle on a sales price eight to 10 percent below the asking price and consider it a fine outcome.”

From the Greeley Tribune in Colorado. “Northern Colorado developers are wary of the potential effects of an oil and gas-related ballot issue, with one Greeley project put on pause while the developer awaits election results. Councilman Robb Casseday, who voted to oppose the ballot measure, said he is concerned Greeley’s housing market is currently in a slump as developers keep an eye on the outcome of the election.”

“Tom Morgan, owner of the Gateway Place Apartments in west Greeley, said he has everything planned out to start construction on a $32 million, 144-unit addition to the apartment complex by the spring. But the project is temporarily on hold, he said, until he knows whether Colorado voters approve Proposition 112.”

“‘Morgan said he isn’t concerned about what the regulations would mean for his project. ‘The concern is that if it passes they’ll stop drilling, and the economy will collapse in Greeley,’ he said.”

From 9 News in Colorado in Colorado. “Metro Denver’s housing market may be headed toward balance, where conditions favor both the buyer and the seller, according to Steve Danyliw, chair of the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) committee, who added that high prices are causing affordability concerns with buyers.”

“Housing prices in the Denver-area market have been climbing for years, with May and June seeing record-high prices. Prices have since dropped 4.9 percent, according to DMAR’s monthly housing report. The report also noted that the number of sold listings decreased 28.91 percent compared to the month prior, and is down 20.24 percent from last September.”

“‘Even with decreasing sales, it is my opinion we are not heading towards a bubble,’ Danyliw said. ‘Prices and sales are down month over month for the last three months, but this is normal seasonality.'”

“‘Supply is on the rise and sales are dropping,’ Danyliw said. ‘More homes available will cause the rate of prices to grow at a slower pace.'”

“Danyliw added that mortgage rates are also on the rise, adding to the affordability issue. Despite the growth in inventory, Danyliw said he expects that the metro Denver housing market to experience continued price growth above 5 percent for Q4 of 2018.”

“The average price for a single-family home stands at $502,034, down 3.79 percent month-over-month. The median price decreased by 2.73 percent to $428,000, according to the report.”

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This Post Has 21 Comments

  1. ‘offers as low as 25 percent below asking prices…‘Some of these offers were even made on properties which had taken interim reductions from their original asking prices.’

    Dang, that’s cold. Oh well, can’t see it from my living room.

    DONG!

  3. The usual suspects:

    “conditions favor both the buyer and the seller”
    “this is normal seasonality”
    “Danyliw said he expects … continued price growth above 5 percent for Q4 of 2018.”
    “More homes available will cause the rate of prices to grow at a slower pace”
    “The median price decreased by 2.73 percent to $428,000, according to the report”

  5. “Metro Denver’s housing market may be headed toward balance, where conditions favor both the buyer and the seller, according to Steve Danyliw, chair of the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) committee, who added that high prices are causing affordability concerns with buyers.”

    Housing Bubble 2.0 is not causing affordability concern. The FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is now replaced with FOBP (Fear of Buying at Peak).

  7. ‘More homes available will cause the rate of prices to grow at a slower pace.’

    Why is this always the worst case scenario? Prices will “grow at a slower pace”.

  8. “…offers as low as 25 percent below asking prices as evidence. Peters noted the last time that phenomenon was seen was in 2009. ”

    There certainly is no shortage of ‘last time since 2009’ references these days.

  9. “Favors both buyers and sellers” Another one for the top 20 list of realtor mumbo jumbo. Lets see: we are predicting team A is likely to win but see increasing odds that team B will pull out an upset. Is this where neutrality meets political correctness? Let’s get on with the carnage already.

  11. Greeley is a sh*thole. Swarming with illegals and hijab-wearing Somali immigrants. Stick a fork in it – that place is done.

  12. “‘Even with decreasing sales, it is my opinion we are not heading towards a bubble,’ Danyliw said. ‘Prices and sales are down month over month for the last three months, but this is normal seasonality.’”

    Liar Liar pants on fire. There’s nothing “normal” about this cratering against a backdrop of the Fed’s asset bubbles and Ponzi markets having their come-to-Jesus moment as interest rates spike.

  13. median household income in denver metro area is ~$62k. With a median single fam. home price of $428k, saving up for a 20% down payment (~$86k) will take about 14 years (assuming that this person can save 10% of their pre-tax income per year).

    This of course makes a lot of assumptions: no other household debt (HA!), assumes $62k represents average median wage for non-homeowning households (typically younger and less wealthy than homeowners;), assumes other expenses don’t eat into 10% pre-tax savings goals (i.e. astronomical cost of rent, healthcare, childcare, student loan debt service,), etc.

    No way this is sustainable.

  14. Well, after visiting SoCal, looking at many different areas, wife and I have decided to stay in ATL, starting to appreciate the strong position we are in and looking at taking advantage of whats coming. EVERYWHERE we went, traffic, homeless, trash, smell, crowds, streets lined with what look like abandon cars/campers, but people were actually living in them. Urine and schitt everywhere, needles mostly around camps. BUT, i did like Ventura, still a sleepy surf town, not much traffic, homelessness, trash, and housing was still high, but doable. Came back and had lunch with 2 friends who wholesale/flipp/Buy-Hold property, they are killling it and dont see much of a slow down in ATL, so I might do some investing, if the numbers look right. My .02, be great today

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