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There Just Aren’t As Many Enthusiastic Buyers As There Were A Few Years Ago

A report from Inman News. “‘While overall foreclosure activity is down nationwide, there are still parts of the country that we need to keep a close eye on,’ said Todd Teta, chief product officer at Attom Data Solutions. ‘For instance, Florida is seeing a steady annual increase in total foreclosure activity for the 8th consecutive month, which is being sustained by a constant annual double-digit increase in foreclosure starts.'”

“Some parts of the country have seen a spike in the number of foreclosure starts. A total of 17 states, including Washington, Florida and Oregon, saw starts grow over the past year. Florida, in particular, saw some of the largest increases in foreclosure starts in individual cities, with 90 percent annual growth in Orlando and 45 percent annual growth in Miami. Overall, Washington saw a starts increase of 38 percent while Florida saw an increase of 34 percent.”

The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “In Orlando, about 413,000 homeowners, or about 80 percent of all mortgage holders, have built up enough home equity to tap into it, according to Black Knight. It’s reminiscent of the extravagant days of the mid-2000s, when it was common to borrow against homes to pay off credit card debt, buy vehicles and go on vacations.”

“Cashing out on home equity was a dangerous move in the early 2000s that left many in trouble, said Jeffrey Fagan, president of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. It still is risky, even with today’s real estate market, he said. About 2,000 homes entered foreclosure during the first three months of 2019, according to Attom.”

“‘The whole idea of buying a home and then selling it a few years later is a recent phenomenon,’ Fagan said. ‘It’s not a good move to buy a home for a short-term investment.'”

The Brownsville Herald in Texas. “Brownsville is among the Texas cities with the biggest increase in Veterans Affairs home purchase loans over the past year, according to Veterans United Home Loans, the largest financer of VA loans in the country. VA purchase loans increased 30 percent in Brownsville from the first quarter of fiscal year 2018 to the same period this fiscal year, according to the lender’s data. The city was second only to Midland, which saw a 35 percent increase over the same period.”

“Chris Birk, VUHL director of education, said the state’s increase in VA home loans is concurrent with the national trend, as the past six years have witnessed record-setting, year-to-year increases. The signature benefit of a VA loan is being able to borrow without a down payment, he said, noting that the average VA loan in Texas last year was $246,000.”

“‘It’s gone from 2 percent of the market historically to almost 12 percent of the market,’ Birk said. ‘It’s been a huge increase. … In the wake of the housing crisis a lot of veterans were having trouble getting those conventional mortgages and they started looking for alternatives.'”

From My San Antonio in Texas. “Houston’s home values may be at their peak. According to Zillow, the housing market is already on its way down. While economists are unsure how long the correction will last or how significant it will be, many agree that it is coming.”

“‘Dallas, Houston and Denver are some of the most overpriced markets in the country,’ said Ken H. Johnson, a real estate economist who created the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index, which compares the returns of someone who buys a home to the returns of someone who rents a similar quality home and invests the money that would have otherwise been put toward homeownership. The most recent index found that market conditions in Houston placed significant downward pressure on the demand for homeownership.”

“‘Will this be a catastrophe, like 2009 was for the rest of the country? Probably not,’ Johnson said. ‘You’re not going to see the foreclosure in massive droves. You’re going to see property appreciation stop. You’re going to see a hard time selling your house.'”

From CNBC. “In the super-competitive luxury real estate market, sometimes you need to supercharge your marketing strategy, literally. When Douglas Elliman real estate broker Senada Adzem recently listed a 12,778-square-foot waterfront mansion in Del Ray Beach, Fla. for $13 million, she revved up the deal by adding 3,000 horsepower.”

“Adzem says the bespoke speed boat with five engines is valued at approximately $1.6 million. ‘Our clients love a little cherry on top of the deal,’ Adzem tells CNBC.”

“That townhouse in N.Y.C. with the ‘bonus Bentley’ scored tons of free press but hasn’t found a buyer yet, even with a $7.3 million price drop from its original 2017 asking price of $36.8 million. A 20,000-square-foot mansion in Beverly Hills, was originally listed in 2018 for $100 million and included a gold-painted Lamborghini and Bentley.”

“The mega-home is still for sale and recently had a $32 million price reduction; it’s now listed for $68 million, but those gold-painted rides are no longer included.”

From Forbes. “According to Trulia, this is the first time in over two years that ‘starter and trade-up homes’ have shown the largest inventory increases since 2014 rising 4.8% and 3.5%. It’s the fastest annual growth seen in that starter inventory in over six years.”

“The most expensive metros like San Jose and Los Angeles, according to Trulia’s data are ‘seeing rising inventory that may be due to slowing demand with homes sitting on the market longer.’ It’s no surprise that California metros showed top year-over-year inventory increases. Here’s a look at those numbers. San Jose topped the list with a 55.4% increase. Los Angeles comes in at 28.5 increase, San Francisco follows at 28.2% and finally, San Diego rings in at 25.8%.”

“You can’t talk about pricey West Coast metros/markets without mentioning Seattle. There a very hot market has slowed with a 40.5% year-over-year increase in inventory.”

“Let’s look at Days On Market (DOM) in a few of these California metros to get a good idea of just how long some luxury properties are languishing. A 2,730 square foot home in the pricey area of Saratoga, directly west of San Jose recently had a price cut to $2,299,000 from the original listing price of $2,665,000. This home on a cul-de-sac with a large yard and a pool has been on the market for 74 days.”

“Heading to Beverly Hills, a traditional-style home built in 1923, which is close to the Beverly Hills Hotel has sat on the market for 229 days. The current listing price of $8,999,999 is down from $11,250,000 when it first came on the market. ‘Since homes are sitting longer it’s no surprise inventory is piling up. There just aren’t as many enthusiastic buyers as there were a few years ago,’ explains Felipe Chacon, housing economist at Trulia.”

From Patch Manhattan in New York. “Condo owners in President Donald Trump’s signature tower are having trouble selling their homes for a profit, a rarity in a New York City real estate market that features constantly skyrocketing land values.”

“Several homes in the building have sold at a loss in the past two years, Bloomberg first reported. Some condos in the building recorded losses as catastrophic as 20 percent or greater, according to the report.”  

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This Post Has 80 Comments

  1. Oh dear…

    ‘Florida is seeing a steady annual increase in total foreclosure activity for the 8th consecutive month, which is being sustained by a constant annual double-digit increase in foreclosure starts’

    ‘Some parts of the country have seen a spike in the number of foreclosure starts. A total of 17 states, including Washington, Florida and Oregon, saw starts grow over the past year’

    How about that redfin?

      2. What if like stocks, there is so much money on the sidelines, a 10% drop will bring in the buyers if rates stay so low? Too many married couples can easily afford $2000 a mo.

  2. ‘Condo owners in President Donald Trump’s signature tower are having trouble selling their homes for a profit, a rarity in a New York City real estate market that features constantly skyrocketing land values’

    I don’t know who wrote this steaming pile, but Manhattan and NYC in general have been taking a huge ass-pounding for over 3 years.

    1. “…constantly skyrocketing…”

      Anything described in such manner is wholly unsustainable.

  3. ‘The signature benefit of a VA loan is being able to borrow without a down payment, he said, noting that the average VA loan in Texas last year was $246,000’

    ‘It’s gone from 2 percent of the market historically to almost 12 percent of the market…It’s been a huge increase. … In the wake of the housing crisis a lot of veterans were having trouble getting those conventional mortgages and they started looking for alternatives’

    VA is all subprime. It’s designed to be, to “help out” the veterans. And don’t forget recent reports of mortgage fraud in VA loans associated with 100% cash out refinancing.

  5. I was thinking the same thing. Beside politics, NYC luxury market peaked in 2015 or so…. prices has been in a slow-motion train wreck ever since.

  6. “‘The whole idea of buying a home and then selling it a few years later is a recent phenomenon,’ Fagan said. ‘It’s not a good move to buy a home for a short-term investment.’”

    But but but “iBuyers”, flippers?

  7. ‘About 2,000 homes entered foreclosure during the first three months of 2019’

    This is just in Orlando. Southern Florida has seen huge increases in foreclosures for close to 2 years now.

    ‘It’s no surprise that California metros showed top year-over-year inventory increases’

    It’s a surprise to Chris “prices aren’t gonna fall” Thornberg.

    Where do these shacks keep coming from, month after month, thousands of them?

  8. “…There just aren’t as many enthusiastic buyers as there were a few years ago,’ explains Felipe Chacon, housing economist at Trulia…”

    It doesn’t take a paid the big bucks economist to figure this one out.

    Substitute the word “enthusiastic” with “real people who have actual money”

    One thing I am convinced of (at least in Orange County, SoCal) is that there are more wanna-be fake-lets-pretend-rich people than there are actual rich people.

    Just because someone leases an expensive Benz, wears a Rolex and subscribes to the Robb Report doesn’t make them “rich”.

    At least in SoCal, fake appears to be the new normal.

    2. Always been that way. Add Scottsdale and parts of Dallas to the fake rich phenomenon.

  10. No matter how much Uber exploits its workers, it still can’t make money

    It took two days for investors to sour on Uber’s prospects. They’re right to do so

    ‘Incredibly, despite this unprecedented systematized exploitation of their contractors, Uber still can’t turn a profit, and subsidizes its rides to the tune of billions a year, all of that from investors — first private ones, and now the general investing public. The infusion of more cash via its IPO feels like a good way to extend a Ponzi scheme.’

    https://www.salon.com/2019/05/13/no-matter-how-much-uber-exploits-its-workers-it-still-cant-really-make-money/

    1. May 8, 2019
      Global Drivers’ Strike Shows Tide May Be Shifting for Uber and Lyft

      ‘The complaints of rideshare drivers highlight both the limitations of Silicon Valley’s industrywide conflation of innovation with progress and the high-profile support that Uber, and other rideshare companies, have received from ostensibly liberal sources. HuffPost founder Arianna Huffington joined Uber’s board of directors in 2016, and the company is also one of many Silicon Valley corporations to draw high-profile veterans of the Obama administration. David Plouffe briefly worked for Uber. Lyft hired former Obama Transportation secretary Anthony Foxx in 2018, and Valerie Jarrett, an Obama adviser, joined the company’s board in 2017. In her memoir, Jarrett said that Lyft’s founders are “shrewd businessmen” who “also believe in diversity as a strength. They believe in a social conscience and a commitment to our cities.”

      http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/drivers-strike-shows-tide-may-be-shifting-for-uber-and-lyft.html

      2. They believe in a social conscience and a commitment to our cities.”

        Some years ago I sat on a plane next to a former local charity worker. It was a religious camp for troubled teens, a turn them around project. He had quit to pursue other things. His explanation was that he would rather work for someone who spent their millions to help kids than for someone who was helping kids to make his millions.

        Uber may lose lots of other people’s money, but those at the top are making their fortunes anyway. Plenty of other examples these days.

      3. What a conundrum. Silly valley disruptive sharing economy tech is awesome, but disruptive doesn’t work if you want to pay a living wage. And there’s no massive CEO profits or taxes to raid. What’s a lib to do? They should allow undocumented guests to drive Uber and Lyft — that’ll solve it.

        1. In his wildest dreams, Al Capone never imagined such a brazen crime as these liberals pulled off. Start with a illegal operation, bribe politicians to make helpful laws/look the other way. Put legitimate business into bankruptcy, exploit workers. All for the purpose of a multi-billion $ stock Ponzi scheme.

        2. “They should allow undocumented guests to drive Uber and Lyft ”

          Reminds me of some rideshares I’ve been involved with. When the drivers apparently couldn’t speak a word of English.

          In one of those cases, it was impossible to explain to the driver how to find my unit in an apartment complex. I had to wait a while for them to finally cancel the ride request from their end, so I could request another car. Oh and I was trying to get to the airport to catch a flight. Good thing I’m in the habit of heading out very early.

    2. I wonder whether the whole driver issue is one of unintended consequences — wasn’t the plan supposed to be casual drivers giving someone the occasional ride here or there as a sort of side hustle? I don’t think that they ever wanted a permanent workforce of full time drivers. But they sure got one, didn’t they?

      They might also have been a little too enthusiastic about when the AVs were going to be viable.

      1. I need the market to bottom out in about 4 years. That would be perfect timing for me. We’ll see what happens! 🙂

      2. I need the contagion to spread post haste.

        Living in need ain’t fun. I think feeling a need to spend your money is a better spot than the tens of millions who will need money they aren’t going to get and fall by the side of the ugly road to Normal. A bigger bust than anyone has ever seen is baked in. It may not be quick and done though.

        It will be a great irony that many who long for lower prices so that they can make a down-payment on a dream house may lose their nestegg on the way there. The end of the housing/credit/everything bubble will suck in everyone who doesn’t have their shoes nailed down like a riptide. Just my opinion.

        I decided long ago that the convention was so extremely crazy I had to get out of it. I’ve had all I “need” ever since.

    2. Average sale price I’m seeing $483k last July to $344k last month. That’s almost a 30% drop in 10 months….damn.

    1. The U.S. Commerce Department subsequently added China’s Huawei Technologies and 70 of its affiliates to the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Entity List, banning the Chinese tech giant from purchasing parts and components from U.S. companies without approval. Huawei was not named explicitly in the executive order, but the U.S. has continuously accused Huawei of using its equipment to spy for the Chinese state. Huawei has denied these allegations.

    2. I wish we could have foreign buyers from some place that makes much better food than China. Italian would be good.

  14. I was talking to a guy who bought a condo in I think he said Melbourne Fl in 2006. He told me he still had it and it would be paid off in a year and a half. He said it has been rented the whole time but I knew the rent didn’t cover what he had paid. I told him how I thought that was commendable he kept paying given that most in his situation found themselves upside down in 2009 just stopped paying and collected rent as long as they could.

    I was kind of shocked when he told me the bank came to him in 2009 and offered to match him up to $30k to lower his principal, so he did. $60k lowered in 2009, everything he could pay on top of putting all the rent towards the mortgage and he is a year and a half away from having part of his retirement plan pay off.

    Good for him

    1. Melbourne is dead. Shuttle and NASA pulling out + the crash really sent that place into a tailspin. It has a Target parking lot MILF score of 0%.

      1. “+ the crash really sent that place into a tailspin. ”

        He said that prices had not gone back to peak. I’ll have to ask him about the Target parking lot MILF score of 0% although I’m not real sure how you would come up with that score without at least being questioned by the local police. 🙂

  15. “You’re going to see property appreciation stop. You’re going to see a hard time selling your house.’

    But I learned in a deflationary environment consumers decide to stop purchasing something today due to fear the price will be lower tomorrow.

    I recall in the last inflationary decade consumers decided to purchase a house today at any cost due to fear the price will be higher tomorrow. Banks were happy to loan the difference.

    If inflation worked to cause prices to rise quickly, why won’t deflation cause prices to decline quickly? The idea seems to be prices today are natural, based on supply and demand, and must stay where they are. Anything lower is impossible because something about economics 101…

  17. Went to an open house last weekend. They are building some new townhouses at the edge of the neighborhood I rent in. This is a bummer, since all the neighbors are subletting the ground floors either long term rent or AirBnB — the only guest parking left was the streets where these new townhouses are going up.

    Anyhow, it was pretty chaotic. There were lots of people looking. Prices for these fairly mundane 3 story ~1900sqft 2 car garage places starts above $600K. I heard one Indian guy circling asking about putting down for one immediately, and the salesguy was saying he needed $35K then and there and could reserve. They said 2 were already sold. If that is true I Think all 15 or so will sell rapidly.

    The place I rent is better. *shrug* I don’t know who would pay that when you could get the bottom rung of detached houses for $600K, but I’ve seen people trying to sell the townhouses where I live for $580K+.

  18. Lets cut through the clutter. Sentiment is changing which becomes the storm clouds on the horizon.

    A waterfront home I have been watching was purchased for 800k in 2016. It has been back on the market for about a year, and after price reductions is still on the market for a little under 699k. Boating water with dock. Still needs to reduce a bit before I can jump in.

    However, some of the newly built houses locally on waterfront lots where tear downs of old houses occurred, are commanding surprisingly high prices. Not all boats similarly affected by changing tides. Stage 2 of the downturn, I believe, will be different than stage 1.

    Single family new construction activity locally is definitely slowing.

    There are visible signs of what is coming. Just like in The Big Short. Go watch again. It will seem earily familiar

    Stay tuned.

    1. Sounds nice but the reality I can ask $50k for my 10 year old chevy pick up but where is the buyer at that price?

      So it is for all rapidly depreciating assets like houses.

      US Mortgage Applications Fall To 1997 Level As Housing Demand Collapses

      https://goo.gl/images/yrtPBK

    1. “…they say their assets, mainly the flat, are appreciating.”..”

      Civil Defense Alert:

      When that debt bomb explodes its going to level the entire city of Shenzhen.

      1. This is what happens when you allow central bankers to run the world’s economies.

  21. Did any of the longtime HBB followers buy in 2012 at the dip? HBB called it spot on? Will you buy at the next one in 2021?

        1. I bought in 2010 to take advantage of a $8000 tax credit. It was significant for a small house in fly over country. Was not happy it was offered and used the fact it was expiring since both the builder and I knew the price was going to drop after the expiration of the tax credit. However it was clear to me even in 2010 that the federal government was doing everything it’s power to reflate the bubble and prices of houses would not be allowed to drop to historical norms.

        2. I’ve been in the same rental apartment in South Denver for 9 years this month and I have no intention to buy in Denver anytime soon.

          And for the “paint the walls” loanowners who think renters are a prisoner of their landlords, I had my fridge replaced 4 years ago, flooring replaced 2 years ago, and toilet replaced this week.

          While you’re eating ramen, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

          Threw some away on a short vacation to the Bay Area last weekend (because unlike loanowners, I have disposable income), but other than that I’m sitting on a pile of cash like Breaking Bad’s Walter White had stashed in the storage locker.

          Renters rule, loanowners drool 🙁

        3. “Any HHB’rs buy at all? Ever gonna buy?”

          I’d like to purchase a modest house to live in. But I’m waiting for the market to return to Earth.

    2. “Did any of the longtime HBB followers buy in 2012 at the dip?”

      I bought in 2012 but not at the dip around here, the breaks were slammed on the dip in 2009 by the PTB. I bought in 2012 when for the most part I realized this and they were not going to let prices go where they should have.

      In 2009 they stopped evicting delinquent loan owners or finishing the foreclosure process on houses (like the one I bought) and dribbled the inventory out over 5 years or so which stopped the price drop and eventually let it rise to looney levels once again.

      1. We purchased a townhouse in Rancho Mirage in Dec 2010. Was 75% off the peak price. On line auction.
        4 plex in Long Beach 2012.
        Prices are back to the highs

    3. “Will you buy at the next one in 2021?”

      Long as i can bypass using a realtwhore. 2020-2021 is basically my time frame and pretty hopeful that by then the worthless overhead costs they add will be gone.

    4. “Did any of the longtime HBB followers buy in 2012 at the dip?”

      I bought my current house (short sale) in December 2011 after following the HBB since 2007.

      After buying this house in 2011 I tuned out and stopped visiting for a while but then I started lurking again in 2017 once it was clear to me that Bubble 2.0 aka the Everything Bubble was out of control thanks to QE and the use of non-bank lenders to re-inflate housing prices – “now featuring subprime auto loans & outrageous student debt!”

      I agree it is usually a bad idea to try and time the market, but you sure as heck wouldn’t catch me buying at current prices. I am interested in upgrading my house again but am not in a hurry – so here I am on the sidelines waiting for a correction that I can stomach.

      I guess we’ll see how it goes with your 2021 prediction. I think there are a lot of HBBers who won’t ever be satisfied, i.e. it will never be a good time to buy. It’s all good… I love my perma-bear buddies and don’t mind getting bit occasionally. I know, I know, I’m not your buddy…buddy. xoxo

    5. I bought in early 2012. MD side of the DC burbs. I could have looked earlier but I wanted to make sure the job was secure first. Appreciation has been ~2.5% per year. Not bubbly but probably not ripe for a bust either. What concerns me is that the comps assume a full renovation, which for me would be $50-75K, wiping out any appreciation. Good thing I don’t intend to sell for the next 10-15 years.

      1. I bought a condo in 2010 and sold in 2013 because we ended up with a living situation that we couldn’t turn down (free rent while house sitting for family who were teaching English in China). The condo we purchased was $126k. There were individuals living in the same building who paid $220k for the same unit. We would buy again, but not at these insane prices.

  22. ‘It’s not a good move to buy a home for a short-term investment.’

    Back when people were considerably less mobile and jobs were considerably more stable, almost nobody thought that way. You bought a home with the expectation of having it paid off by the time you retired, the benefit being inexpensive retirement housing.

    The new reality of multiple jobs/relocating means that the only practical reason to purchase a house is to hopefully see some short-term profit from appreciation by the time you put it back on the market. Which is such a gamble, it’s not a smart move financially for most. If they’re looking for short-term stability or other less-tangible benefits, okay – but the concept of financial profit shouldn’t be part of the equation.

    1. This is a big reason I am not buying at the moment.

      I won’t have this same job in 5 years. I can make more money and get more responsibilities if I jump to new firms. That means I need to be open to move to a different city or state.

      Something tells me a $2,000+ per month mortgage would crimp my ability to quickly move to a new job. I can easily afford to buy out my current rental lease and move in 24 hours if required.

    1. We must embrace our fundamental transformation by sharing multifamily housing with three generations of immigrants living under one roof and mariachi music blasting from the speakers on the roofs of the derelict cars in the front yard.

      1. That was what stopped us from buying in 2011. House next door to our rental sold, non-English speaking family moved in, along with a hood-less beater car prominently displayed in the driveway covered by a tarp half hanging off it .

        We tried to say hello, be friendly. (We Anglos have been very well trained.) We were stared at. Started getting flashbacks to my “yout” and our having to move from building to building in Manhattan as the neighborhood changed and deteriorated around us. This happened just as we were negotiating to buy our rental. In addition, the owner started acting like a DH. So we declined. It was also overpriced (as it turned out, it was the bottom.)

        Now I wish we had powered through all of it and gotten it done. House price doubled in a few years. Could have put up with it for a while and been in a much better situation than we’re in now. Hindsight 20/20.

    2. There’s plenty of empty houses in all of these California cities. The property tax assessors need to seize these properties and hang up the auction notices for the arrears at their local courthouses.

      1. plenty of empty houses in all of these California cities

        Shh! That doesn’t fit the narrative or agenda.

    1. From the article you posted:

      “The good news: Most Facebook FB, -1.00% users did not share any fake news articles during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, according to a study released earlier this year. The small number who did were mostly Republican-identifying Americans over the age of 65. The findings suggest the need for “renewed attention” to educate “particular vulnerable individuals” about misleading information, the authors said.”

      “So why are Republican baby boomers more likely to share fake news on Facebook? One theory: As they didn’t grow up with technology, they may be more susceptible to being fooled in an online environment. (Case in point: the variety of scams that have had success with older Americans by preying on their lack of familiarity with how computers and technology work.)”

      This is completely true in my family. My grandparents are the worst. They will pass on anything that fits the narrative. For a great story on this, check out The Washington Post’s article on Christopher Blair, the blogger who runs parody Facebook site “America’s Last Line of Defense”.

      1. The findings suggest the need for “renewed attention” to educate “particular vulnerable individuals” about misleading information, the authors said.

        Really gonna teach those 65 and older anything?

  26. “‘Will this be a catastrophe, like 2009 was for the rest of the country? Probably not,’ Johnson said. ‘You’re not going to see the foreclosure in massive droves. You’re going to see property appreciation stop. You’re going to see a hard time selling your house.’”

    Wouldn’t want to spook the herd, now, would we, Prophet Johnson?

    1. $549,0004 bd5 ba2,000 sqft
      Price cut: $20K (5/14)898 Prosperity Way, Nipomo, CA 93444
      New construction Foreclosure

      4/23/2019 Home in default $441,029 past due
      5/1/2017 Loan issued $375,000

      New construction foreclosure in California. Are we there yet?

      1. MOTIVATED SELLER BRING US AN OFFER! Walk into Sweet Equity in the Lovely New Home in Nipomo!!Featuring over 2,000sqft of open and inviting living space! Living room, family room, dining room are all on the first level. High end finishes throughout. Open kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances! Great west side location on a huge 10,000sqft lot with park views. Walk to town for some light shopping or visit a local restaurant with a casual stroll from you new home. So many upgrades this is a must see. Builder is ready to get this sold, all reasonable offers will be considered. Make this your Central Coast oasis today!

        https://www.redfin.com/CA/Nipomo/898-Prosperity-Way-93444/home/51607795

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