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Those Who Bought At The Height Of The Market Are Going To Be Screwed

A report from the Post and Courier in South Carolina. “A slew of new apartments opening in the Charleston market this year will lead to a rise in the vacancy rate, the highest in the state. About 4,100 new units are expected in the Charleston area this year. Columbia will see 500 new apartments, and the Upstate hub will pick up about 700 new units.”

“Marcus & Millichap projects Charleston’s apartment vacancy rate will rise to 7 percent this year, higher than Columbia’s projected 6.3 percent rate and Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson’s 5.1 percent expected vacancy level.”

From The Real Deal on Florida. “Coral Gables developer Alirio Torrealba closed on a condo inventory loan for unsold units at Biltmore Parc. Torrealba’s MG Developer secured a $7.75 million loan from BGI Capital, according to a press release. Developers typically take out condo inventory loans to pay off construction lenders, pull out equity and/or cover carrying costs of the units they have not yet sold. The developers of One Thousand Museum are seeking a $331 million condo inventory loan as the luxury Zaha Hadid-designed high-rise in downtown Miami nears completion.”

“BGI Capital provides traditional, specialty and bridge financing for residential and commercial real estate, according to the release. The Miami-based firm recently opened an office in New York to cater to Northeastern clients. In all, One Sotheby’s took over sales of 34 units, including townhouses at Beatrice Row, Althea Row, Biltmore Row, Villa Blanca and 3400 Ponce. Prices for the remaining developer inventory range from about $2 million to $3.2 million.”

The Union Tribune in California. “A historically low number of homes were built in San Diego County in the first three months of 2019. There were 1,180 residential permits pulled in the first quarter, a drop of 58 percent compared to the same time last year, said the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California. It was the most significant drop of the seven Southern California counties.”

“The drop was largely the result of a reduction in the seemingly unstoppable apartment market. There were 556 multifamily permits pulled in the first quarter, a drop of 70 percent from 2018. While the apartment and condo market fluctuates heavily, because one approved project can mean hundreds of units, it was still notable because the apartment building pace had also slowed significantly at the end of last year.”

“Analysts pointed to a slowdown in rent growth as the main reason for the reduction. Without a steady increase of 4 to 6 percent like the last few years, it’s getting harder for developers to make a strong return on investment with rising costs of construction, said Nathan Moeder, principal with real estate analysts London Moeder Advisors.”

“‘Projects are having a hard time achieving feasibility so it means a lack of new projects in the pipeline,’ he said. ‘Developers used to be able to count on long-term inflation of rents. But, we’ve pretty much hit a ceiling.'”

The Bay Area Newsgroup in California. “Want a free month’s rent included in your new lease, or maybe free streaming of your favorite TV shows? Move-in perks like these are becoming a little more common in the San Jose area — a trend that could be a good sign for renters.”

“The number of rental listings offering some kind of move-in special in the San Jose area has more than doubled since this time last year, according to Zillow. Landlords often use those specials as a way to lure in renters during a slow market, offering small concessions before resorting to lowering prices, said HotPads economist Joshua Clark.”

“‘It could mean that San Jose is going to start to slow down again,’ he said.”

From Bisnow on New York. “Legislators called it historic, tenant advocates hailed it as a step toward ending the housing crisis and the governor promised to sign it. But many in real estate had a gloomy outlook Wednesday about the rent regulation reform now set to become law. Tuesday evening, Albany lawmakers announced they had reached an agreement over a package of bills the Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie described as ‘historic affordable housing legislation’ that will ‘finally restore equity’ between landlords and tenants. Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday he would sign the bill, describing it as ‘the best tenant protections’ lawmakers would sign.”

“The laws affect the way the 1 million rent-regulated apartments are run in the city. While tenant advocates cheered the changes as a win for housing affordability, they were met with dismay by many in the real estate industry. Real estate sources told Bisnow they see the changes will worsen, not improve, conditions for tenants. And for many it will mean major changes to how they operate their business.”

“‘It’s very troubling. I made investments in good faith and I am being penalized for making those investments,’ Taconic Investment Partners co-CEO Charles Bendit said. ‘I thought the legislature and government would come to a more balanced solution.'”

“Taconic, which is partnering on a major, mixed-income development called Essex Crossing on the Lower East Side, has a fund that was targeting workforce housing investments in the city, which he said he and his investors will need to re-evaluate in light of these new laws. ‘There are some owners that are going to be screwed,’ Camber Property Group principal Rick Gropper said. ‘[Those] who bought at the height of the market — a year or a year-and-a-half ago — and are relying on a business plan of deregulating units quickly and aggressively are going to be hurt the most.'”

“Nelson Management Group President Robert Nelson said he spoke to legislators in the lead-up to the June 15 deadline, though he declined to name names. He said many of them sympathized with the real estate industry’s position, but had been ‘drowned out’ by a progressive Democratic agenda that wanted to ‘stick it to landlords.'”

“‘It costs me anywhere between $25K to $60K to renovate an apartment,’ he said of the MCI and IAI caps. ‘[These laws are] irresponsible … I’m sure banks are going to get hit hard. Loans are going to fall into default. I think that it’s going to be devastating.'”

This Post Has 95 Comments
  1. ‘Without a steady increase of 4 to 6 percent like the last few years, it’s getting harder for developers to make a strong return on investment…‘Developers used to be able to count on long-term inflation of rents. But, we’ve pretty much hit a ceiling’

    I’ve said before these guys baked rent increases into their finances, year after year. They paid too much for the land and now come the defaults.

    They can’t make money when rents have never been higher and have never took as high a percentage of incomes. That’s how insane these markets are.

    1. That’s how insane these markets are.

      Yet, the corporate controlled MSM is largely silent. It reminds me of when a fund manager is identified for “talking his book” or making a case that is motivated by his/her financial interests (not based on logic). Seems the MSM is talking their own book too

      1. “Yet, the corporate controlled MSM is largely silent.”

        Surprise, surprise.

        “If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.” – Mark Twain

        A nation of dummies: One half is uninformed, the other half is misinformed. Both halves make for easy exploition.

    2. So who is seeing their salary increase 4-6% annually, just to tread water?

      This slow-motion train wreck is going to start getting good now.

        1. That is a good point. Almost all of my significant pay increases revolved around taking a new job or moving to a new company. Mobility matters these days I think.

          1. Mobility matters these days I think.

            Very much so. That’s one of the things that drives up prices further in locations like Silicon Valley or where I am at – one feels much safer committing to a purchase if there are a huge number of employers for your specific skills within a short radius.

            Growing up in a 4000 person ‘town’ in the rust belt, there were just a handful of good paying employers within a reasonable distance, and most one could not transfer between without taking a pay hit. And given that half of them were 2nd or 3rd tier manufacturing related for the auto industry, I saw first hand in the 70s and 80s how fragile the local economy could be.

            The days of 30 years and a gold watch and pension are long gone in the private sector.

    3. A number of families in our community who have been around for over a decade, with stable finances, are pulling up the tent stakes and moving away. This is due in part to no longer being able to keep up with the costs of lving, rent included. You can only raise rents at twice the general inflation rate for so long before middle class families can’t take it anymore.

      1. rms – Agreed, it is ominous .

        And I suspect it’s quietly happening all over the country.

  2. ‘About 4,100 new units are expected in the Charleston area this year. Columbia will see 500 new apartments, and the Upstate hub will pick up about 700 new units…Marcus & Millichap projects Charleston’s apartment vacancy rate will rise to 7 percent this year’

    This is what happens when you listen to Marcus & Millichap. BTW, 7% means stick a fork in it.

  3. ‘Coral Gables developer Alirio Torrealba closed on a condo inventory loan for unsold units’

    Translation: our business plan has failed miserably, there is no demand for these airboxes, so we’ll suck out a few more months of paychecks and leave the lender holding the bag. You think that’s cynical?

    April 19, 2018

    “‘Palm Beach is completely on fire,’ said Todd Michael Glaser, a high-end homebuilder who made his name in Miami but has lately been concentrating on Palm Beach County. ‘I’ve never seen the amount of $8M to $70M homes as in the last three and a half, four months. It’s staggering.’ It’s not just single-family homes that are hot, but a new wave of high-end condos and mutifamily apartments, especially in downtown West Palm Beach.”

    “Kolter Urban President Bob Vail, who is developing the Alexander, said that there is something of an arms race for amenities in the new supply of high-end homes. ‘You see that across the U.S. There are [apartment] buildings in Atlanta, Denver and Dallas that are nicer and more fully amenitized than condominium units, because that’s what it’s going to take to get people to choose that building,’ Vail said. ‘It’s just sort of a differential advantage. It’s really become a race in those more in-demand markets.’”

    “Though the market is healthy now, the developers agreed a slowdown is possible as new supply takes time to be absorbed, construction costs rise and actionable sites get harder to find. Low salaries in Palm Beach County mean that not many workers can afford high rents. When an audience member asked whether they were concerned with an economic downturn, Vail responded half-jokingly, ‘Condo developers, we don’t forecast those kind of things, you know what I mean? We’re just go, go go,’ he said. ‘And the faster we go, the faster we get to the closing, and then, I’m not going to say we don’t care, but … ‘ The audience chuckled as he trailed off.”

    http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10407

    1. “‘Palm Beach is completely on fire,’ said Todd Michael Glaser, a high-end homebuilder who made his name in Miami”

      There are a bunch of Mega Shacks going up on the Island.

      Even one for this back up guitarist who played with Scandal in the early 80s.

      (IMHO not there best song or video but the best shots of the now mega rich backup guitarist)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qzl_bUasVIo

      1. If he (the back up guitarist) was one of those guys who lived lean and stashed away his money for 20 years in investments, then more power to him.

        1. “The $83 million tour, in support of the album This House Is Not For Sale,”

          “If he (the back up guitarist) was one of those guys who lived lean and stashed away his money for 20 years”

          Or played to sold out stadiums.

          That’s Jon Bon Jovi with the black guitar in the Scandal video.

          Bon Jovi Extends $83 Million Tour Into Europe In 2019

          Oct 29, 2018

          on Bon Jovi has just extended his latest tour, which has already made more than $83 million. His money-making machine will head to Europe as Bon Jovi again aims to be one of the biggest concert earners after 35 years in music.

          Jon Bon Jovi himself, who is now 56, has appeared on the Forbes list of America’s Wealthiest Celebrities, ranking No. 16 with a $410 million net worth in 2017.

          https://www.forbes.com/sites/markbeech/2018/10/29/bon-jovi-extends-83-million-tour-into-europe-in-2019/

          1. Ha! I should have done more research.

            I take it all back for inflicting These Arms Are Open All Night on an unsuspecting humanity.

          2. I take it all back for inflicting These Arms Are Open All Night on an unsuspecting humanity.

            Hahah :-). He’s a talented guy, but they can’t all be winners :-).

            We were supposed to see them in Shanghai a few years ago and the govt killed it at the last moment because he said something nice about the Dalai Lama once. But that’s OK. I saw BJ open for Ratt once back in the day and made them look like fools. Jon is a great entertainer.

  4. ‘‘There are some owners that are going to be screwed…[Those] who bought at the height of the market — a year or a year-and-a-half ago — and are relying on a business plan of deregulating units quickly and aggressively are going to be hurt the most’

    They were already screwed Rick. Now it’s just gonna happen faster. Stamp those little feet. Stamp em’!

  5. ‘There are some owners that are going to be screwed,’ Camber Property Group principal Rick Gropper said. ‘[Those] who bought at the height of the market — a year or a year-and-a-half ago — and are relying on a business plan of deregulating units quickly and aggressively are going to be hurt the most.’”

    It would take a heart of stone to read about these reckless and greedy speculators getting their heads handed to them, and not laugh.

  6. “Nelson Management Group President Robert Nelson said he spoke to legislators in the lead-up to the June 15 deadline, though he declined to name names. He said many of them sympathized with the real estate industry’s position, but had been ‘drowned out’ by a progressive Democratic agenda that wanted to ‘stick it to landlords.’”

    Not since the Iran-Iraq war have I derived such enjoyment from seeing two evil antagonists pound the hell out of each other. The crony-capitalist corporate wing of the Democrats made the rise of AOC and her ilk inevitable by cravenly facilitating the globalist looting and asset-stripping of the productive economy, and runaway speculation in the housing market. While it goes against the grain, I wish the “progressive” wing of the Dimms all the best in crushing the corrupt corporate Democrat Old Guard and up-ending their cozy relationship with the plutocrats and Wall Street grifters.

    1. You’ll pay a lot more taxes for illegals free health care and housing….that’s about all that is going to change 😀

    2. After which her and her ilk will take their place in that cozy relationship.

      The idiots who vote for these demagoguing charlatans thinking anything is ever going to change will get what they deserve.

        1. “…draining investments into lithium producers that supply the raw mineral key to power the electric-vehicle revolution.

          “Mining companies and analysts at the Lithium Supply and Markets Conference in Santiago last week said they couldn’t help but notice the half-empty rooms at the sessions…”

          Irony. A Lithium Mania.

          If people would take their Lithium as prescribed, would we even have an “EV Revolution”?

  7. “The number of rental listings offering some kind of move-in special in the San Jose area has more than doubled since this time last year, according to Zillow. Landlords often use those specials as a way to lure in renters during a slow market, offering small concessions before resorting to lowering prices, said HotPads economist Joshua Clark.”

    Odd, IIRC there was a recent article stating all these concession are disappearing and rents would be going to the moon FOREVER. Shortage? Mix issue?

    “‘It could mean that San Jose is going to start to slow down again,’ he said.”

    Just had a talk with a realtor yesterday at an over priced open house telling me she is seeing MULTIPLE offers in San Jose again and also some economist she recently heard is forecasting major gains due to the lower Interest rates. Who am I to believe??? Seems very similar to last bubble, all the best effort attempts to keep the RE market had no impact and eventually it crashed. Concessions and lower rates won’t work for very long and then what’s left…. lower prices

    1. Ask her why then there are so many cases of price cuts. And also how come properties stay on the market 30+ days even AFTER the prices are cut.

      1. She had the look of a dear in headlights and was not the least bit convincing. She did try to hand me some flyer addressing the “so called” bubble which I turned away but now I want to see what kind of garbage lies it was peddling. The home she was showing had already been cut 10% lower and she agreed the 1+mil homes are “softening”. I got her card, I’ll see if I can’t get a digital copy of that flyer, might be amusing 🙂

        1. I don’t think you happen to have a flyer disputing the bubble unless you are getting a lot of people talking about a bubble. For all the talk of various complex economic factors, I think it really comes down to changing perceptions, which become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course, the changing perceptions may have some link to some of the economic factors, but it is hardly a direct link. That’s why economic predictions are notoriously off and relatively worthless.

    2. “Just had a talk with a realtor yesterday at an over priced open house telling me she is seeing MULTIPLE offers in San Jose again and also some economist she recently heard is forecasting major gains due to the lower Interest rates.”

      If a pharmaceutical company announced a new pill that would extend the average lifespan another five-years the financiers could instantly qualify many more buyers due to another 60-months of payments. Lower interest rates might get you over the threshold, but it doesn’t make an over-priced house any more affordable.

    3. The downturn will never be a smooth curve that you can map to an equation. There will be exceptions and temporary reversals here and there at the individual and local level.

      We can also expect the Fed and markets to pull shenanigans and attempt to change the tide coming in.

      Because of that, there will be a lot of people who will point to those anomalies as proof that the greater trend either isn’t happening, or later on, that it’s scope and duration is not as bad as others are saying.

      They all have that posters on their wall, real or imaginary: “I want to Believe” – because it’s better and more comforting for them to not look down the maw of the dragon.

      I mean, what if you looked around and said “you know, over half the people that do what I do for a living are going to be out of work in 2 to 3 years” ? Acknowledging that brings not only a ton of stress, and a call to action to take drastic measure to protect oneself (screw everyone else), but also a deep fear of “what if I’m wrong?” – much, much easier to believe all is fine and carry on as if the party will never end.

      1. “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” Citi Group’s Charlie Prince 2007

    4. Yes, because a RealtWHORE would never lie about multiple offers to drum up interest in her overpriced shack. Now is a great time to buy and sell. Get on the ladder or be priced out forever!!!

  8. Swelling US corporate debt raises risk of global financial meltdown.

    excerpt:
    A chart of the index clearly points to very high levels of corporate borrowing, even higher than the peak points during the tech bubble and the housing bubble. “The US corporate credit cycle appears to be at its highest point in recent history,” the IMF said in its “Global Financial Stability Report,” released in April. […]
    Sales of a type of securities called collateralized loan obligations, used to pool bonds, loans and their derivatives into new debt, are ballooning, causing more individual savings to flow into high-risk corporate debt via mutual and pension funds.

    The situation is disturbingly reminiscent of how subprime loans were packaged into mortgage-backed securities and sold to investors around the world during the housing bubble, setting the stage for the harrowing financial crisis.

    1. “Sales of a type of securities called collateralized loan obligations, used to pool bonds, loans and their derivatives into new debt, are ballooning, causing more individual savings to flow into high-risk corporate debt via mutual and pension funds.”

      “mutual and pension funds” = Other People’s Money.

      The manager of this money gets to collect some very hefty fees while the owners of this money get to endure all the risks.

      I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.

      😁

        1. China is the only country in the history of mankind that can successfully grow their debts to these levels. It’s a 2000 year plan I hear. Much smart!

    2. Mega.Wanker.Banker$ $trong! … NON.bank$ lender$ of $helter.$hack loan$ exist as $acrificial lamb$ awaiting to be gathered for the financial $laughter.

      Who will help them, who? … It’$ a mystery Charlie Brown.

  9. ‘When Mike and Kim Clancy first became worried about the losses they had racked up investing in a fund managed by Neil Woodford, they turned to their financial adviser, Hargreaves Lansdown.’

    ‘The retired couple, from Peebles in the Scottish Borders, were told not to worry: the firm had used detailed analysis to pick the fund. Despite this, the value of their savings kept falling. The Clancys are now sitting on a £48,900 loss from that single investment.’

    ‘What Mike didn’t know, however, was that while Hargreaves Lansdown was advising clients like him to stick with Woodford, it was quietly selling off its own stake in the Woodford Equity Income fund.’

    ‘Mike said: “I feel very let down. I paid Hargreaves Lansdown £10,000 for advice, and on top is the capital loss on the Woodford fund. It is all very galling. I don’t know how they live with themselves. Hargreaves has clearly demonstrated it has little respect for its clients’ money.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hargreaves-lansdown-advised-us-to-stick-with-woodford-while-quietly-offloading-its-own-stake-in-his-fund-kwbjpnntt

    1. You know Mike, I am puzzling over this statement. Cuz the way I hear it, it’s their money now, not yours. Probably sipping the £10,000 away on champagne as I type.

          1. Oh, please! Let me answer your question in this way:

            If I were to choose to act in a way that would cause someone to endure ten-thousand dollars of financial pain in order for me to benifit by ten dollars I would not hesitate for one second to do so. That’s if I liked the guy; If I did not like the guy then I would do it for free.

            As for living with myself? If you have to ask this sort of question then you would never understand my answer.

    2. ‘Mike said: “I feel very let down. I paid Hargreaves Lansdown £10,000 for advice, and on top is the capital loss on the Woodford fund. It is all very galling. I don’t know how they live with themselves.

      Mikey, it could be that the sole purpose of your life is to serve as a warning to others.

    3. “What Mike didn’t know, however, was that while Hargreaves Lansdown was advising clients like him to stick with Woodford, it was quietly selling off its own stake in the Woodford Equity Income fund.”

      Yep, phuc’d their clients the Goldman-Sachs way!

    4. Nobody should ever let another human being “manage” their money/wealth. People will look back on this time in shear amazement.

  10. “‘It could mean that San Jose is going to start to slow down again,’ he said.”

    His perception of the obvious, is uncanny.

  11. Somewhat off topic…
    I kind of miss the type of macro analysis that has become irrelevant. Adding up gov’t/consumer spending to business investment and net exports. Figuring out if debt loads are sustainable, if inventory builds are foreshadowing recession.
    All that is subordinate to trying to divine the inner machinations of 12 individual with delusions of omniscience. A dozen people who deny the wisdom of Schumpeter’s creative destruction.
    I guess its like the old saying, “it’s all fun and games until the Fed pokes your eye out”

    1. We’ve reached the terminal stage of centralization of the economy. It’s irreversible. We can’t go back to a state in which fundamental values have meaning without scrapping the entire monetary system. Until that point, we are going to have to endure an ever increasing degree of intervention by our enlightened central planners. The only option is to find a way to prosper in the NIRP/ZIRP QE TARP asset-inflation bubble-driven savings-destroying specuvesting circus that our economy has become. I strongly doubt anyone reading this blog will live to see the day that price discovery is a dominant theme of the markets or the economy in general.

        1. One can hope but if you consider the magnitude of the problem….
          If there were price discovery in treasuries, municipal bonds, corporate debt, the stock market, derivatives, GSE-backed debt, the residential and commercial real estate markets, education, healthcare, the Fed balance sheet, etc….
          You can see how one might come to the conclusion that the economy in its current incarnation cannot survive price discovery.

          1. I agree, it’s sickening what has happened, but as you point out….the size of the issue is so large and distorted, it will be an epic and relatively short crash.

      1. the NIRP/ZIRP QE TARP asset-inflation bubble-driven savings-destroying specuvesting circus that our economy has become.

        +1

  12. Over a decade ago on this blog I use to harp on the evils of Globalism, elimination of Glass-Steagall Act,, and all things that were destroying America, as many on this blog were.

    Instead of a meaningful correction of what had gone awry , there has been a double downing on faulty policies. It’s just hard to watch.

    When I was younger Socialism was a evil word. Now Socialism is a major political platform in this Country. I find this to be one of the most dangerous trends I have ever seen in my life, and certainly not the answer to what went awry.

    Sorry, I was just venting a little bit.

    1. Instead of a meaningful correction of what had gone awry , there has been a double downing on faulty policies.

      Cui Bono, amicus meus, Cui Bono…

      (latin, literally “to whom is it a benefit?”)

  13. Trump is up ten percentage points since late May and is five points higher than Obama at the same time in their presidencies. Fighting illegal immigration and unfair trade is proving very popular. If the Democrats were smart they would pivot and fund a crackdown on illegals and support the fight against China. However, they are not so Trump’s reelection prospects are soaring and globalist are sad pandas:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jun14

  14. “As this train wreck unfolds, the main villains of the piece – much like the neo-con architects of the Iraq debacle – will try to make the gullible public believe that “We are all responsible.” You see, if everyone is responsible, no one is accountable. Nice try, DL. Your duplicitious words, and those of LAY and other NAR and MSN truth-makers – a.k.a. the Axis of Weasels – are a matter of record. So are those of Ben Jones, TXchick, Crispy, GetStucco, and plenty of other posters in here, who saw right through the flim-flam game the NAR and its cohorts were foisting on the sheeple. So don’t even try the “collective guilt” defense, Learah, because we’ve got the goods on you and your co-conspirators.”

    Posted on the HBB, 2007

  15. While the article only talks about pork, there are additional costs importing soybeans from Brazil instead of the U.S. Commodities can easily be substituted for each other and they really just compete on price. Thus, if prior to the trade dispute the Chinese were buying US soybeans over Brazil, it was because our price was better. Historically, China imports Australian coal over the US for a reason and it is not due to better quality: https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-apos-food-only-going-000036336.html

    The trade dispute means that China is no longer creating a larger and larger middle class which then can and wants to buy up property outside of China both for financial and political reasons. The Chinese who bought houses in Australia and the US always were worried that the Chinese government would become more authoritarian and move back toward communism. They made the correct decision to stash money overseas. Now, if they are not already out of the country, they need to figure out how to get out.

    1. Most of that money was pooled via P2P. One of the great lies was this newfound middle class that were buying individually.

      1. Well I have a feeling the used shack sells people here in the Bay Area are anticipating many more Chinese lucky number chasing, money launderers. Just looked at the new listings for today and majority are GUARANTEED good luck if purchased (realtors know that 8s are good fortune and they will be owed credit when the shacks double in price overnight)

        $999,888
        1252 Piedmont Rd, Berryessa, San Jose, CA 95132

        $588,888 (priced perfectly for that Chinese money launderer)
        809 Auzerais Ave #259, Downtown, San Jose, CA 95126

        $1,499,888 (switch them 9’s for 8’s for a guaranteed sale realtor)
        230 Midwick Dr, Sunny Hills, Milpitas, CA 95035

        $988,850 (won’t sell it’s missing two 8’s)
        1933 Bird Ave #1935, Willow Glen, San Jose, CA 95125

        $1,038,888 (Mabye but f it just go all 8’s)
        1170 Moonbeam Way, Milpitas, CA 95035

        1. They can renew the listing on 08/08 or 08/18 and offer an 88 day escrow with a cash back refund from the agent of 888$ on closing.

          1. LOL @ the numerology!

            Maybe that’s what happened to the poor Lucky Dragon Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas? They didn’t have enough 8s?

        2. “1252 Piedmont Rd, Berryessa, San Jose, CA 95132”

          A run-down shack with a one car garage on really busy street for $1M dollars in San Jose’s east side? No bubble here, LMFAO!

  16. Some ska (Ghost Town/Specials). Still empty, no matter what they say. Plenty to see here in Las Vegas.
    youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2oXzrnti4

    Will there be “too much fighting on the dance floor” when cash buyers crowd everyone else out, just like last time?

    The dust here is killing me, cleaning wise; thinking of greener alternatives, but you know what they say about the grass…

  17. While we’re waiting for the bubble to pop everywhere, here is one form of affordable housing:

    As housing costs climb, living in an RV park is affordable, if technically illegal
    Patty Hastings
    June 16, 2019
    The Columbian

    “When Glenda Peck moved to the area five years ago from Arizona she lived in an apartment that cost $600 per month. Then, the rent went up to $900 and she was priced out. It was an older, crummy place in the Hudson’s Bay neighborhood.”

    ““I didn’t think it was worth it,” she said. So, she bought a 26-foot recreational vehicle and moved to Hazel Dell RV Park (which used to be known as Vancouver RV Park).”

    ““It’s a pretty good feeling, actually. Nobody’s going to foreclose on me,” said Peck, 61. “It’s a very affordable lifestyle.””

    “Kate Budd, executive director of Vancouver-based Council for the Homeless, said it’s logical for households to consider an RV due to the cost savings, and she knows more families are opting to live permanently in RV parks. For those on fixed incomes, the rent at an RV park may be their only affordable housing option.”

    https://www.columbian.com/news/2019/jun/16/as-housing-costs-climb-living-in-an-rv-park-is-affordable-if-technically-illegal/

    1. Even cheaper than paying RV park rental spots are the RVers I see parking on the side of the road and moving daily (aka the homeless RV group). Saw a couple of them in the Walmart parking lot this afternoon.

    2. I forsee RV stocks performing well in the future.

      I think the interesting thing will be having enough RV parks or places with hookups. I wonder where I can find stats on the industry?

      1. Anecdotally there are not enough hookup spots for the demand. Cities don’t want to approve new RV lots anymore than they want trailer parks.

        1. Everybody loves out of town tourists in nice RVs spending lots of money. Everybody hates locals in RVs opting out of paying the ante to live in God’s country. It’s a conundrum…how to separate the two and hammer only the latter to force them back into paying their dues to the local landlord class?

          1. Everybody hates locals in RVs opting out of paying the ante to live in God’s country

            It’s more than just that. The folks living out of vans, and such around here dump trash in green areas off the sidewalk, live empty liquor bottles, and dump random stuff into the street runoff drains. Sorry, but I have no interest in that going on just on the other side of my fence (which it has been lately). Has nothing to do with property taxes.

        2. That is the problem. Similar to mobile home parks, any new RV Parks are going to be located far away from the job centers. The ones that get in before the cities expanded out to them are highly sought after.

          Here’s one in Bellevue that’s better located than most of the new homes on the east side: https://www.trailerinnsrv.com/seattle/ A friend of mine got a 5th wheel and lived there off I-90 while working in downtown Bellevue and making over $250k/yr. Notice that the rents for a larger RV are $1400-1600 a month. Clearly not for lower income/retired people.

          1. My father parks his Allegro Bus in a really at Newport Dunes right on the beach in So Cal. We always spend a couple of weeks there in winter.

  18. There’s a gap between jobs and job-seekers, and a housing crisis is making it worse
    Yahoo News
    June 16, 2019
    Calder McHugh

    “Recent evidence suggests there’s a widening gap between where hourly jobs are and where hourly job-seekers live — and the affordable housing crisis raging across major U.S. cities is contributing to the problem.”

    “In a study published earlier this year by Urban Institute, this “spatial mismatch” has affected low and middle-income residents seeking hourly employment — but can’t find affordable housing where jobs are available. The problem is also intensifying in rapidly gentrifying cities like San Francisco, New York and Boston, where available jobs far outnumber jobs seekers.”

    “In both the Bay Area and the Big Apple, frothy housing prices have propped up the average rent well above $3000. And all three cities are likely having difficulty filling open positions due to a skyrocketing cost of living, which stands at 80 percent more than the national average in San Francisco.”

    1. Why would you be an hourly worker in some of these insane rent/housing price cities? All off the extra you might make compared to a non-urban area will just go to your landlord. That is why we are seeing the hourly labor shortages. Labor shortage in these economic supercities where all the high-paid knowledge workers are will see cost of living continue to go up. Equity locusts who are not high-paid knowledge workers will continue to flee to lower cost of living areas. Eventually the coasts and the heartland will converge in some weird dance between wages, jobs, and housing.

      1. We don’t need hourly workers. We can design our cities to be populated 100% by tech workers and well paid financial industry analysts. That’s all a city needs, right? right??

        1. Well…we need a few other pooper scooper types to make life worth living for the techies and analysts. But they’re all losers who are willing to commute for hours to work for minimum wage…or even under the table. So no problem there.

          Oops. Misspelled looser.

    1. I saw that headline earlier. What’s the deal? I expect to see headlines like this from China, not Australia!

  19. Now this is why in most cases I would rather walk into a store and look at something before buying. 🙂

    Auction Bidder Cries Foul After Winning a Narrow Strip of Land Instead of Florida Villa

    BY RICHARD SZABO
    June 17, 2019

    Tamarac resident Kerville Holness was shocked to discover he only won a strip of land from an online auction of properties that have defaulted on their taxes.

    Holness was convinced he had bought a two-bedroom villa worth $177,000 for just $9,100. However, he quickly discovered that he only won a strip measuring one foot wide by 100 feet long, at 8107 NW 100th Way in Tamarac, 45 miles north of downtown Miami.

    “It’s deception,” he told the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “There was no demarcation to show you it’s just a line going through [the villa duplex], even though they have the tools to show that.”

    The appraiser is expected to defend this claim by showing information on the Broward County’s tax website, showing the property has no building value, only occupies 100 square feet, and is just one foot wide.

    County officials doubt Florida law would award the refund to Holness, and are using his experience as warning that auction bidders must do their homework and ensure they check for all possible problems a property might have.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/auction-bidder-cries-foul-after-winning-a-narrow-strip-of-land-instead-of-florida-villa_2965940.html

  20. The China Labour Bulletin (CLB), a Hong Kong-based group that supports workers’ rights, says it recorded 2,774 strikes or protests in China last year, twice as many as in 2014…The jump began after last August’s currency devaluation and stock market crash and continued to build during the last quarter of last year, mainly in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and most markedly in Guangdong.”

    “We didn’t complain because we understood the company was in trouble,” he said. “But now… we found out our base salary had been halved, to 2,200 yuan (£240) a month.”

    All due to Trump tariffs in 2019?

    No new $50,000 Tesla buyers here.

  21. It should be noted that real-estate is illiquid. You lose about 7% round trip buying and then selling. If RE didn’t go up by 7% in the time you owned your property you are behind, if you compare to the alternative of renting you are behind even further. Unless you plan to stick around a while and unless your life circumstances are stable you probably should be renting instead.

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