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That Realization You Can’t Price Your Home At Whatever

A report KTVZ in Oregon. “Home sales are seasonal, so it’s not too surprising that Bend’s record-high June median home sales price of $449,000 dropped in September for the third straight month, to $425,000. But a Redmond appraisal firm noted that’s still $7,000 higher than the median price seen a year ago. Donnie Montagner, a residential appraiser with Beacon Appraisal Group, noted that despite the low inventory, Bend-area building permits dropped sharply in September, to 39, down from 72 in August and down nearly 50 percent from a year ago.”

“In Redmond as well, building permits dropped sharply, from 41 in August to just 17 in September. Quarterly figures show Sisters-area median home prices dropping a bit, to $417,000 in the third quarter, still the second-highest on record. Sunriver’s median price dropped from a record $535,000 to $485,000 in the third quarter.”

The Kitsap Sun in Washington. “Kitsap’s housing market is heading into its usual seasonal slowdown, and buyers looking to purchase a home will likely have more options to choose from as demand continues to cool heading into the fall and winter months. The number of closed sales in the county dropped by almost 20 percent in September, down from 519 sales in September 2017 to 411 closed sales last month.”

“Pending sales in Kitsap similarly fell to the lowest point seen in the past five years. There was almost a 17 percent drop to 447 pending sales in September, down from 538 at the same point last year.”

“With those changes, the county’s housing market could be on track to tilt back toward what brokers regard as a balanced market — one that favors neither the buyer nor the seller. Bremerton-based John L. Scott broker Nate Leach Leach said he’s already starting to see the impact of the seasonal slowdown in his submarkets of West Bremerton and East Bremerton.”

“‘We’ve seen a very large number of new listings, and they stay on longer and we’re seeing quite a few more price reductions,’ Leach said. ‘I think we’ve had a lot of sellers who have had to come to that realization you can’t price your home at whatever and expect a bid.'”

“There are between 600 and 800 homes In West Bremerton, Leach said. Those that are listed for sale are staying there longer, he said. ‘Last June we had one house on the market,’ Leach said. ‘Today there’s, a dozen homes on the market.'”

“Another major part of that preparation is making sure the property is appropriately priced, unlike many homes that were listed above market value last year.”

“‘Last year we were in our heads, ‘This month we’re going to go up 2 percent in sales price, so it didn’t matter if we had a slightly overpriced listing, we’ll sell anyways,’ Leach said. ‘Now we’re plateauing or decreasing. We’re seeing more price reductions than at this time last year.'”

From Curbed Seattle in Washington. “Last month, we reported on analysis from Zillow that showed that rent was starting to slow down, with a slight decrease in median rent in the metropolitan area year-over-year. The catch: That decrease was mostly concentrated in high-end, already-expensive rentals.”

“A quarterly report from Realpage released in late September tells a similar story: high vacancy and slowing prices at the top end, with high demand and high prices at the lower end. ‘Rents for luxury product slipped a little bit over past year,’ said Jay Board, content manager at Realpage. ‘That’s primarily driven by intense apartment construction in the urban core.'”

“Longtime Seattle renters have likely noticed a whole lot of construction—and a whole lot of apartments aimed at a wealthier clientele. They wouldn’t be imagining it.”

”Seattle has been one of the most active markets nationally for apartment construction in recent years, and most of that new product has been luxury, urban units,’ said Board. ‘In turn, you’re seeing occupancy in that luxury segment slip, which is keeping rents from rising to same the degree as older product, which remains very full.'”

“This tracks with what we’ve been seeing all year long. Back in January, reports showed a dramatic slowdown in rent increases—as around a quarter of downtown apartments, largely new, luxury construction, sat empty. At the time, landlords were trying to fill those units by offering giveaways and temporary deals.”

“Zillow’s analysis last month showed an even more dramatic slowdown year-over-year within the Seattle city limits.”

This Post Has 31 Comments
  1. ‘Bend’s record-high June median home sales price of $449,000 dropped in September for the third straight month’

    Eeee-bola Bend!

  2. ‘Last year we were in our heads, ‘This month we’re going to go up 2 percent in sales price, so it didn’t matter if we had a slightly overpriced listing, we’ll sell anyways’

    Gosh, I hope no one overpaid in such an environment.

  3. ‘In turn, you’re seeing occupancy in that luxury segment slip, which is keeping rents from rising to same the degree as older product, which remains very full.’

    “‘It’s been slow. The volume of calls is a fraction of what it was a year and a half ago,’ said Larry Crites, who owns nine small apartment buildings in Seattle.”

    http://housingbubble.blog/?p=185

    Somebody is a lion Jay.

  4. Catching up after a long weekend in Napa Valley. Wow the amount of money sloshing around there was amazing. It was like Disney for upper class alcoholics. I’ve never seen pristine “farms” like that before.

    But anyway, I saw nobody commented on this particular FB gem yesterday. The funniest thing I’ve seen in a long time. I think he hasn’t been back for a while…gave me a laugh though.

    ‘I’ll probably move to China. I was there once, and I know they can use people like me who know English and who are honest.’

    1. I didn’t comment, but I got a good laugh out of that too. I’m not sure if they’re still hiring people to help Chinese speculate in the US housing market.

      Also, I guess there’s no need for someone working in China to speak Chinese? Or maybe that is one of his many talents.

      1. Well, there was a period there where you could get hired to stand around speaking English and looking northern European. But that period is past, and he apparently had no idea that what he saw on his one past trip was no longer true.

    2. “Catching up after a long weekend in Napa Valley. Wow the amount of money sloshing around there was amazing.”

      Outdoor lunch on the river’s edge… lots of high-maintenance lean eye candy!

      1. “…lots of high-maintenance lean eye candy!”

        Gross. I can’t stand those fake women. I like a gal who throws on some jeans and enjoys a hike out in the woods, and a few nights in a tent.

  5. “Another major part of that preparation is making sure the property is appropriately priced, unlike many homes that were listed above market value last year.”

    “‘Last year we were in our heads, ‘This month we’re going to go up 2 percent in sales price, so it didn’t matter if we had a slightly overpriced listing, we’ll sell anyways,’ Leach said. ‘Now we’re plateauing or decreasing. We’re seeing more price reductions than at this time last year.’”

    Anyone that brought last year SCHLOOONNNNGGGGEEEDDDD!!!

    1. Tend to agree, however populist Trump (and fellow FB) might do what populists do. Run huge deficits , capture the Federal Reserve debase the currency and kick off hyper inflation. Then the choice you make is pay off the mortgage or buy a cup of coffee. Still if I had free choice I would be a renter for at least the next two years.

      1. Except that Trump actually said when he was campaigning that the Federal Reserve needs to stop blowing bubbles, and he seems to be planning on fixing the economy by bringing actual jobs back to America, and his plan seems to be working, and all I guess all democratically elected Presidents in the United States would be defined as “populists” because they all got elected by appealing to voters. So yeah.

  6. “We were in our heads” ? What exactly does that mean? Soon their heads will be in the guillotine. The curve is shifting. Slowly but deliberately.

  7. A really nice piece from the PPG on how prices are getting out of whack in Pittsburgh.

    “Coming out of the recession, you had all these speculators looking for the next big thing,” said Mr. Sichenzia, president of Go Global Advisors Inc. in Fort Lauderdale. “We are seeing the makings of a bubble in second-tier cities that did not previously have an affordable housing issue.”

    “It comes crumbling down when the last guy can’t find a chair when the music stops,” Mr. Sichenzia said. “The music stops when the buyer doesn’t have the income to qualify for the mortgage.

    “And we are getting there now. The one thing not going up is wages.”

    http://newsinteractive.post-gazette.com/housing_prices/

  8. “noted that’s still $7,000 higher than the median price seen a year ago”

    Isn’t this what the Australian press relied on last summer after the blow-off top subsided? “Prices may be down for the past few months, but are still higher yoy.” Then suddenly that wasn’t true either.

    1. But the prices are still higher than they were 30 years ago, so buying or selling a house is always a great deal.

  9. I’m watching a flipper get stucco in the foothills above Sacramento. He paid $625,000 at auction in March and cleaned it up quickly. Asked $749,900. He’s been walking it down for 6 months and is now at $674,900. After selling and holding costs, he’ll be lucky to break even. Assuming he sells it this winter.

        1. Curious, when I checked the link it said “Price History Unavailable”.

          Here it is

          DATE EVENT PRICE AGENTS
          10/3/2018 Price change $674,900 -0.7%
          9/27/2018 Price change $679,900 -1.4%
          9/13/2018 Price change $689,900 -0.7%
          9/7/2018 Price change $694,900 -0.7%
          8/19/2018 Price change $699,900 -1.3%
          7/26/2018 Price change $709,000 +1.3%
          6/22/2018 Price change $699,900 -2.1%
          6/14/2018 Price change $714,900 -1.4%
          5/31/2018 Price change $724,900 -0.7%
          5/18/2018 Price change $729,900 -1.4%
          5/1/2018 Price change $739,900 -1.3%
          4/14/2018 Listed $749,900 +20%
          3/30/2018 Sold $625,000 -8%

        2. OK thanks. I don’t know that side of the lake very well. Seems a little generic for that price compared to Folsom/El Dorado Hills.

    1. “He’s been walking it down for 6 months and is now at $674,900. After selling and holding costs, he’ll be lucky to break even. Assuming he sells it this winter.”

      Maybe the Christmas tree will catch fire this New Year?

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