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Prices Reduced As Sellers Find What The Market Will Bear

A report from the Augusta Chronicle in Georgia. “Earlier this year, the VA loan industry celebrated its 24 millionth loan. Chris Birk, a spokesman for Veterans United, the nation’s largest VA lender, said the program is as popular now as it’s ever been. Before the 2007-08 housing market crash, VA loans accounted for just 2% of all mortgages. Now they account for 12%.”

“VA loans are not one-time-only deals; veterans can get multiple loans over their lifetime, provided they don’t default on the loan. The only difference is that the closing-cost fee veterans are charged increases on the second and subsequent mortgage. Many simply roll the cost into their loan amount and can use the no-money-down strategy to build a small portfolio of income-producing rental homes.”

“‘It’s a vehicle for wealth creation,’ Birk said.”

The Reporter Herald in Colorado. “Loveland’s residential real estate market has relaxed from its frantic pace of a year or two ago, professionals say, when buyers were competing with each other the first day a home went on the market and sellers had to create spreadsheets to keep track of all the offers.”

“Rick Moehling, a Realtor with The Group in Loveland, agreed that ‘it’s definitely a much more friendly market for noninvestor buyers.’ ‘The market is not as shark-infested as it was a couple of years ago, 18 months ago,’ he said.”

“Both Realtor Robert Walkowicz and Moehling said as homebuilders catch up to the demand, the increasing inventory of new homes is taking some of the pressure off the market. Moehling and Walkowicz said they’re seeing prices reduced as sellers find what the market will bear.”

“Moehling said sellers who saw homes going for above-list prices a year ago are having to adjust to the change in the market. ‘As a seller, you want to get the most for your property,’ he said. ‘Some sellers want more than what their property was valued at.'”

The Oregonian. “In this week’s real estate gallery, we look at fixer-uppers and homes with reduced prices or those listed under median values. Price cut of $245,000, acreage: 14421 N.W. Springville Road in Forest Park is listed at $1.75 million (price was $1,995,000 June 3).”

“Price cut of $75,000: 3020 N.W. Monte Vista Terrace in Hillside is listed at $1.1 million (it was $1.175 million June 7). Price cut of $50,000: 2224 S.E. Lambert St. in listed at $749,000 (it was $799,000 March 22).”

From Mansion Global on New York. “At 432 Park Avenue—the supertall hotbed of extravagant real estate transactions on Manhattan’s Billionaires Row—two eight-figure sales have been logged in the past week and both changed hands for a significant discount, according to property records filed with the city.”

“The most expensive of the pair, a penthouse on the 94th floor of the 96-story tower, closed for $31.5 million, records show. The final sale price is $9.5 million less than the $41 million the three-bedroom condo had been asking since hitting the market in December 2017.”

“The second transaction, a three-bedroom unit on the 86th floor, was just a pinch less expensive at $29.54 million. But the final sales price was $10 million less than the $39.5 million asking price that had been attached to the apartment since 2014, listing records show.”

From Forbes. “The city of Seattle and the metro overall have been particularly hard hit by the slowing housing market. According to Redfin data, available housing inventory in Seattle rose from 1,064 in May 2018 to 2,175 in May 2019, an increase of over 100%. For the Seattle metro area overall, the increase in inventory is smaller, though substantial: from 5,257 available homes for sale in May 2018 to 7,675 in May 2019, an increase of 46% year-over-year.”

“Meanwhile, home values, according to Zillow, dropped by 4.5% over the last year. The bedroom community of Lake Forest Park north of Seattle has seen home values drop by 5.3% over the last year. Shoreline, another Seattle suburb, has seen home values decline by 5.1% year-over-year.”

“Like the tech-centered city of Seattle, San Jose and the San Jose metro area too have taken the housing slowdown quite hard. According to Zillow, home values in San Jose declined by 4.2% since last year. But that’s nothing compared to other cities in the San Jose metro area.”

“In Santa Clara, home values dropped by 8.4% from May 2018 to May 2019. In Sunnyvale, the decline is even more dramatic: Home values plummeted 10.7% since last year. Inventory has increased year-over-year in both Santa Clara and Sunnyvale, according to Redfin data, with the latter up 73.8% in terms of all homes for sale form May 2018 to May 2019.”

“The impact on San Jose metro area home values has been substantial. Out of the 24 cities in the San Jose metro area tracked by Zillow, 21 of them have experienced outright declines in median home value year-over-year.”

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This Post Has 133 Comments

  1. Eeee-bola Loveland!

    The Forbes article has a lot of detail on the crater.

    Stanford, oh dear…

    1. “Loveland’s residential real estate market has relaxed from its frantic pace of a year or two ago, professionals say, when buyers were competing with each other the first day a home went on the market and sellers had to create spreadsheets to keep track of all the offers.”

      NO ONE OVERPAID IN THIS ENVIRONMENT! END OF STORY!

  2. ‘Before the 2007-08 housing market crash, VA loans accounted for just 2% of all mortgages. Now they account for 12%’

    So what is the percentage increase? But there’s no subprime…

    ‘VA loans are not one-time-only deals; veterans can get multiple loans over their lifetime, provided they don’t default on the loan. The only difference is that the closing-cost fee veterans are charged increases on the second and subsequent mortgage. Many simply roll the cost into their loan amount and can use the no-money-down strategy to build a small portfolio of income-producing rental homes’

    ‘It’s a vehicle for wealth creation’

    That’s right folks – no money down = wealth creation.

    1. ‘closing-cost fee veterans are charged increases on the second and subsequent mortgage. Many simply roll the cost into their loan amount’

      LTV over 100%, BTW.

      1. I and some fellow engineers were on a military base where some young marines were doing small arms practice. We waited for them to finish and watched as they got in their cars – range rovers, beemers, audis, american muscle, and of course, ginourmous trucks and drove off. We were stunned as these 20 somethings, half our age, drove cars that were – at least new – twice as expensive as what we drove. I’m guessing most were used/leased on absurd terms.

        I also would inevitably see that same demographic on the beaches or at some restaurant with their girlfriends/wives, covered in tattoos and looking like they probably didnt make it past the 8th grade – the kind of female that when she hits 30 is the poster child for the “Meth – not even once” campaign. Lots of stories of marriage, a quick kid or two, then divorce. Apparently the ex can then score some of uncle sam’s sweet military pension sugar that way.

        The loan sharks must love that crowd.

        1. The loan sharks must love that crowd.

          They do. I drove a barely used top of the line Mustang when I was an E-4. But I financed through the hometown credit union. Not the smartest decision I ever made. But almost nothing about that period of my life was smart :-).

        2. Most military junior enlisted personnel are terrible when it comes to managing their finances. When they deploy to theaters like Iraq or Afghanistan, their pay becomes tax free, plus they get generous allowances and spend hardly anything since just about everything is provided for them – chow hall, living quarters, etc. If their wives haven’t cleaned them out while they’re gone – which happens a lot, since the wives of enlisted military guys tend to be, shall we say, not the most faithful bunch – they tend to blow $30K or more on a new car or truck rather than put the money to better use. There are always tons of pawn shops and payday lenders around military bases, because the fools are always having to hock the stuff they bought on credit. But they’re heroes, each and every one of them….

          2. Yet they will try to claim they don’t even make minimum wage!

            Well…when they technically own you 24/7 it doesn’t work out to a very good hourly rate if you compute it that way. So they do when they have a bad attitude. Meanwhile the government likes to show them numbers that are cooked the other direction to make it look like they are earning crazy good money and shouldn’t even think about getting out because they’ll never match it on the outside. The truth is in the middle. I got out as an E-5 and made nothing but National Guard weekend pay for a few years but after that I’ve pretty consistently made between colonel and 1 star general pay. So no complaints…and a big middle fanger to the “leaders” who told me I should never get out. If you take into account what would have happened if I had bought a house and invested the extra money instead of going to college I may not have been ahead getting out compared to my peers at the 20 year mark. It’s the freedom to leave bad leadership at any time and the money you make in a real career after your military peers are forced into retirement that makes it worth it. Few of them get jobs on TV analyzing the latest news.

          3. “…since the wives of enlisted military guys tend to be, shall we say, not the most faithful bunch…”

            The marriage between an officer/soldier, sailor, etc., and a young lady at her fertile sexual zenith is one of life’s unfortunate circumstances.

    2. I’m sick and tired of depreciating assets being talked about as if they’re wealth vehicles. The narrative is tired, irresponsible and disingenuous.

      1. It does appear that monkeys throwing darts to pick houses after 2011 would be able to retire if said monkeys purchased say 5 to 10 homes and sold off a few over the last year or two to pay down debt and improve cashflow. Would you not agree.

        Monkeys.

        Perhaps you just meant to say that the narrative is tired during this late stage of the ‘business’ cycle aka debit driven frenzy of Yellen Bux.

        1. Would you not agree.

          I would. But I’d also say they were some lucky monkeys that the Fed had their back like that all these years.

    3. Found this on the interwebs, on multiple sites:

      “Eligible borrowers may only use VA loans for their primary residence. You can’t finance an investment property or vacation home with a VA loan.”

      So how are the vets creating portfolios of investment properties? I would say fraud but the bankster himself is touting this stragegy. Once again, I’m stumped.

      1. They can buy a four-plex, for instance, but they have to live in one unit for a year. Then they move out, buy another one, etc.

          1. Playing by the rules isn’t illegal. It’s how lawyers and accountants make a living.

    4. no money down = other people’s money.
      – >100% LTV, 50% DTI. These are low default risk numbers, right? Call it VA, USDA, whatever; subprime is subprime.
      – I’m pretty sure there’s no taxpayer money at risk here… So, who’s money (at risk) is it?

  3. yet continuing to build. The site alone cost $60M

    Two-Tower Seattle House Condominium Development Site in Seattle Sells for $60MM
    Concord Pacific, the largest master-planned urban community builder in Canada, has purchased a 38,934 square foot half-block in downtown Seattle adjacent to Amazon’s headquarters for a mixed-use multifamily development in a joint venture with HB Management.

    ——————–
    From Forbes. “The city of Seattle and the metro overall have been particularly hard hit by the slowing housing market. According to Redfin data, available housing inventory in Seattle rose from 1,064 in May 2018 to 2,175 in May 2019, an increase of over 100%. For the Seattle metro area overall, the increase in inventory is smaller, though substantial: from 5,257 available homes for sale in May 2018 to 7,675 in May 2019, an increase of 46% year-over-year.”

    1. And flippers still buying everything on the lower end in all of western WA, OR, CA, NV, etc.

      2. Well that’s the easiest way to diagnose a bubble. When there are so many flippers, the first thing you get asked by the agent at an open house is whether or not you are an ‘investor’. It’s 2006 all over again…a horde of flippers, desperate real estate agents, over staffed mortgage originators vying for the ever dwindling pool of ever more cash strapped buyers with smaller and smaller down payments. Another amusing bubble symptom is when you go to open houses and all the agents have clueless bubble brained apprentices with them learning the secrets of infinite wealth generation from the real estate perpetual motion machine.
        On another note, the quote about ignoring reality does not appear in any of Ayn Rands writings or interviews. Somewhat paraphrases somethings she, as well as others, wrote.

        1. “Another amusing bubble symptom is when you go to open houses and all the agents have clueless bubble brained apprentices”

          You got me thinking on that. 4 out of 4 of the open houses I’ve been to in the last few months, the UHS showing the house was not the listing agent.

    2. Bet the owner of the site is breathing a sigh of relief they found a knife catcher.

      With so many projects recently completed and still in the pipeline in downtown Seattle, did it not occur to the buyer to do a simple check to see how much capacity will come online before they finish anything. Or how the current glut of projects has caused delays and price hikes in getting materials and crews needed?

      I guess the right palms were greased.

      1. the have … basically they are trying to screw the older property owners. They are 2 cases of the older owners:

        1. They have re-financed to pull out $s. That is ok if they were putting the $s in safe places and not spent like rabbits. Otherwise, they are screwed
        2. No refinance – and have paid off the mortgage and done a little bit of improvement. They will do just fine

        The question – do the high earning 25-35 ‘s want fancy apartments – or will they put up will less modernization and amenities, to save more $s.

        i know a landlord- who has 2x four-plexes (passed down through his elderly mom). He is very careful about maintenance — so the cash flow is pretty impressive for Seattle.

  4. Shoreline was a working class neighbourhood prior to 2000 – and the price acceleration was so much that folks have only hung around to see how high the prices would go before they sell. I know 2 people like that. Guess they should sell now and make the gains

    —————
    “Meanwhile, home values, according to Zillow, dropped by 4.5% over the last year. The bedroom community of Lake Forest Park north of Seattle has seen home values drop by 5.3% over the last year. Shoreline, another Seattle suburb, has seen home values decline by 5.1% year-over-year.”

    1. The drops have barely dented the equity created in the mania. As long as people can sell a house and walk away with money, they do not send the jungle mail which truly causes the cratering in prices. Right now they will borrow against their credit cards to pay the mortgage to wait for their wish price. Need to see large numbers of foreclosures and short sales to get a true bargain

      1. “…Right now they will borrow against their credit cards to pay the mortgage to wait for their wish price….”

        Financial crack cocaine at the apex.

        Is this what the REIC hucksters call “smart money management”?

      3. It’s true. A 5%-6% drop, while a step in the right direction, is nothing in the grand scheme of things given the insane run-up in prices. It’s going to be years before there is anything even remotely affordable available. And it’s flippers and knifecatchers all the way down.

        1. “… It’s going to be years…”

          Well, maybe.

          All its going to take is some global event, such as an increase in the price of mortgage money, and all bets are off.

          What is truly amazing is how close to the abyss many households actually are. (see comments above about paying mortgage with credit card).

          On the other hand, you constantly read stories about folks who drop $$100’s just for a day at Disneyland.

          What a wacky world we all live in.

          1. I just heard a story yesterday about a couple who both have decent jobs, but who are deeply, deeply in debt. Ginormous house payment, 2 car payments, credit cards, etc. They can’t afford to do anything with friends, but they keep doing it anyway, putting more on the credit cards. They’re anti-Trumpers, too.

          2. “….I just heard a story yesterday about a couple…”

            Spending money they don’t have, to buy things they don’t need to impress people they don’t know…

      4. “Need to see large numbers of foreclosures and short sales to get a true bargain”

        Well, Just way until we get a recession. If we get a recession and there isn’t a 25-30% drop then we’re in trouble. In recession people lose their jobs, and since alot of them are in deep debt the auto loans and credit cards, it creates a domino effect. Also, by the time the get a new job, they’ll make less money than before, and their debt has bubble up. Credit ruined, so can’t refinance. The people who truly have equity are those who bought 2011-2014.

    2. ‘they should sell now and make the gains’

      The only problem is some poor bashtard has to borrow those gains, with interest, for 30 years. So this solves what, in the bigger picture?

      1. The PTB see $500,000 borrowed into existence. $30,000 available to the Real Estate agents to spend. A consumer who will be probably spending money on furniture and garden hoses etc for the house and that money multiplied several times as it moves from one hand to another. People defend higher prices for housing in California based on higher wages without realizing that the higher wages are created by the amount of debt created in the state for housing. Of course, the wealth is an illusion and the debt is the reality since when no one can afford the housing since the price compared to wages continues to widen, prices will correct. Thus, the reason California has so much real poverty due to housing costs more than eating up the artificially inflated wages. Of course some people are cashing in the house chips and winning by leaving the state or similar bubble states. Actually while we talk about houses being in a bubble it is really mostly the land which is in a bubble. Structures are worth their replacement costs and in a lot of the country, houses are largely tied to that price. In those areas it makes sense to buy, other areas rely on the bigger fool theory of value and the person selling now is less of a fool than the new buyer. Rightly or wrongly, there are winners and losers in a bubble.

        1. Structures are worth their replacement costs

          I question that assumption. I think this is probably true enough on the low end, but in a bubble the wrong type of housing (e.g. luxury, McMansions) gets built in the wrong place. In some of these cases, new buyers won’t be willing to pay replacement cost for something that is not en vogue or is very specific to the person who originally bought/designed the place.

      2. “The only problem is some poor bashtard has to borrow those gains, with interest, for 30 years.”

        My bread and butter.

        “So this solves what, in the bigger picture?”

        Come visit me in my bank and I will be happy to show you. Bring with you a list of marketable body parts.

        😁

      3. The best outcome is if they sell to a flipper or ‘investor’ and let them take the loss. Bonus points if the investor is Chinese.

      4. Truth be told, it doesn’t solve anything in the long run. But maybe it solves something temporarily for the seller. It reminds me of a joke my dad used to always tell as summarized by Alan Turing in “The Imitation Game”:

        “There are two people in a wood, and they run into a bear. The first person gets down on his knees to pray; the second person starts lacing up his boots. The first person asks the second person, “My dear friend, what are you doing? You can’t outrun a bear.” To which the second person responds, “I don’t have to. I only have to outrun you.””

        Bubbles can work for some people just as long as they are not the bag holder and are not on it when it pops. Obviously I am against this, but I can see the psychology of those who participate and how they really just care about getting theirs.

    3. Sell now, make the gains, and then go live … where? They pretty much have to change careers in order to take advantage of those gains.

      1. Rent and stay put is the only logical answer, unless they’re retiring. Because all of the formerly “affordable” areas, which are no longer affordable, do not offer any of the jobs needed to buy houses or pay the bills.

        1. Geographic arbitrage is a thing. You don’t just have to flee to Mexico, Panama, or Belize to stretch those consumer dollars, you can go to fly-over and pretty much do the same thing in Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, etc.

          1. No decent paying Government jobs in those states. God forbid you may have to work in private sector to make more.

          2. No decent paying Government jobs in those states. God forbid you may have to work in private sector to make more.

            Maybe just retire there though.

          3. Not a lot of Federal gov jobs, but plenty of state and local gov jobs. Low pay but security and pension — at least that how it used to be. If I hadn’t found my Fed job ten years ago, my plan would have been to take some edu hours and teach sci/math in a rural high school. Not everybody needs a “vibrant culture.”

      3. live in a Van or RV for a while. It’s less convenient for those with kids that go to school. but single or DINKs can easily live on wheels for a while.

  5. “Before the 2007-08 housing market crash, VA loans accounted for just 2% of all mortgages. Now they account for 12%.”

    SUBPRIME! SUBPRIME!

    1. When I first came across the term subprime in the fall of 2004, I had to dig around to find out what it was. Basically, it was stuff like VA. Subprime always had a really high default rate, in the double digit %’s. But this was tolerated due to who the people borrowing were – veterans, to give them a noose to …I mean a helping hand. Anyhoo, that was the rationale.

      Another purposeful subprime loan is USDA. Gotta help out those single-mom farm girls,

      In 2003, the REIC ran out of prime borrowers and opened the floodgates to Joe and Sally Sixpack. Now the majority of loans are subprime. And VA is the subest of subprime.

      Remember – 95%+ of loans that defaulted last decade were prime. Subprime is simply an indication the REIC is scrapping the barrel for suckers.

      1. “Another purposeful subprime loan is USDA. Gotta help out those single-mom farm girls”

        And they’ve changed the definition of “rural” in order to accommodate more borrowers under the USDA umbrella. Now “rural” can actually be a small metro outside the larger metro.

          1. Yeah, just despicable. I have see the advertisements where it says “qualifies for USDA” or some such.

          2. The USDA loans I’ve had knowledge of in the last year went to subprime borrowers who didn’t put down a dime. The closing was arranged to where the closing costs got rolled into the loan. So LTV is over 100%. Underwater from day one and purposefully made to a subprime borrower. You can’t get a USDA loan unless you are subprime.

          3. The whole situation, in my opinion, is much, much, much worse than last time. And I truly believe they will try much, much harder to keep it from crashing because of all the moneyed special interests who are now major landlords (Blackstone, etc.).

      2. Stupid question (or rhetorical, depending on point of view): Where, exactly, are the ‘Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), Senator Running Deer, any Congressperson, or regulatory ag’cy. in all of this? Isn’t the CFPB supposed to prevent a repeat of the GFC? OK, that’s two questions…

        1. Where, exactly, are the ‘Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), Senator Running Deer, any Congressperson, or regulatory ag’cy.

          The CFPB has been methodically dismantled and neutered since DJT appointed Mick Mulvaney at the head. There is no power there anymore to do much of anything. It has been methodically dismantled and is basically a skeleton.

          “Some of those invited to the meeting in February had picketed outside the bureau’s headquarters on Mulvaney’s first day at work. Their unease had only grown as Mulvaney ordered a hiring freeze, put new enforcement cases on hold and sent the Federal Reserve, which funds the C.F.P.B., a budget request for zero dollars, saying the bureau could make do with the money it had on hand. Within weeks, Mulvaney announced that he would reconsider one of the bureau’s major long-term initiatives: rules to restrict payday loans, products that are marketed to the working poor as an emergency lifeline but frequently leave them buried in debt. “Anybody who thinks that a Trump-administration C.F.P.B. would be the same as an Obama-administration C.F.P.B. is simply being naïve,” Mulvaney told reporters. “Elections have consequences at every agency.””

          https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/magazine/consumer-financial-protection-bureau-trump.html

        2. Judd Gregg: Elizabeth Warren and the CFPB

          “The problem is that this agency and its director were set up to be free from the control of the Congress. Congress’s fundamental obligation to oversee and fund such bureaus or agencies is short-circuited when it comes to the CFPB.”

          “In structuring it in the manner written by now-Sen. Warren (D-Mass.), the law abrogated the idea of a government by the people, for the people and of the people.”

          “Instead, it established an autocratic and unaccountable power center for people of Warren’s ideological persuasion — those who view our market economy as an enemy that must be managed by a chosen few.”

          CFPB Reportedly Funneled Billions Into “Secret Democrat Slush Fund”, Consultant Claims

          1. CFPB was set up to be something like the Fed (I know, I know, we have a lot of “End the Fed” readers here). Independent and above the fray.

            Well, those fears are obviously unfounded because it IS accountable to the executive branch and the direction has radically shifted under DJT. It’s a toothless tiger, so don’t get all up in arms. It was instrumental in bringing Wells Fargo’s fake account scandal to bear and it was clamping down on predatory loans. But now the bankers are safe.

      3. USDA in (subprime) mortgages makes no sense. Stick to beef: prime, choice, select, maggoty, subprime…

        1. “USDA in (subprime) mortgages makes no sense.”

          Guess who pays for those “nutritious” school lunches and take-home backpack snacks?

      4. I’ve always heard that VA loans had a lower-than-average default rate. Not true?

  6. ‘as homebuilders catch up to the demand, the increasing inventory of new homes is taking some of the pressure off the market’

    And Loveland joins California, Dallas, New York and Miami in discovering these shacks can actually be built! And it drives down prices. So much so that in some places new is cheaper than existing – DONG!

    1. Sure, luxury shacks can be overbuilt, but not shacks in general. Affordable units are receiving upwards of 800 application per unit.

      “The affordable housing lottery for 325 Kent Avenue, the first rental building to rise within the Domino Sugar megaproject, opened back in November, and—unsurprisingly—its apartments were in high demand. According to developer Two Trees, a grand total of 87,000 people applied for the building’s 104 affordable units”
      https://ny.curbed.com/2017/2/15/14622616/williamsburg-brooklyn-affordable-housing-domino

      1. “Sure, luxury shacks can be overbuilt, but not shacks in general.”

        This is a very silly statement. You are much smarter than this.

  7. I wonder how many FBs in San Jose are now underwater? Must feel pretty lousy to save save save for years for that 10% down payment, only to find it taken away some months later.

    1. I always was in favor of Vets getting benefits like zero down loan. What I don’t like is that these Vets become greater fools in the real estate Ponzi scheme.

      1. I hate this concept of the “easy money” investment.

        Investment in general should be long term usually, and not based on the greater fools left holding the bag. Fake values until they pop, followed by great loss is so 1929.

      2. I’d actually be okay with vets getting zero-down loans too if the housing they were purchasing wasn’t inflated and 2x-3x the median income in the area. The problem becomes that once you allow zero-down financing, the asset almost certainly inflates. It is as if one causes the other.

        1. Vet loans use to be good loans with low default rates back in the day.

          I guess any loan is bad loan when it’s made in a highly inflated bubble.

    2. Housing in San Jose is an instrument of financial mass destruction. I talked a friend into not buying in San Diego at the top of the market last time and it prevented her from financially ruining herself. Some professions look very unfavourably on declaring bankruptcy and she belongs to one. Housing can be create debts an order of magnitude larger than student loans and ruin a person for life.

      1. “Housing can … ruin a person for life.”

        Loanowners are gonna loose everything.

    2. In one breath they say a homeowner can “save” $266/month and in the next breath they say that the average homeowner has $136K that they can “tap.” So which is it? Oh right, I think you want the tap.

      1. We’re getting hounded incessantly by our current loan service to refinance our mortgage — mail, phone calls weekly. I’m fairly certain the previous loan service (Citibank, who bought the mortgage from the original lending bank when I bought the property) sold it when it became clear we were going to refinance or pull out equity with them, either. Every other week, a FedEx rush delivery envelope with papers inside for me to sign.

        Why such desperation for me to pay less interest. Mr. Banker?

  9. Yes, but I said above it creates money. All the costs of the new loan rolled into the new loan, money taken out to be spent, a lower interest rate yes but probably a new loan for a full twenty years for a loan which may have been paid for five to ten years. This is not about the long term only the next few quarters count, the Ponzi scheme will continue

    1. I’m honestly starting to think that Wall Street wants to confiscate property from every last homeowner in this country that isn’t them, and financially ruining anyone else who dares to buy one is their modus operandi.

    1. To be sure, there’s a lot to dislike about the demon-cratering candidates. What about the orange dolt and his cheap money obsession? I think it’s the root of the all that ails amerikka.

      1. “Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy.”
        ― Franz Kafka

        1. Q: how many socialists does it take to change a light bulb?

          A: nobody knows, there hasn’t been electricity since the Revolution

      2. The “orange dolt” doesn’t control our monetary policy. That’s the Fed’s job, and in case you hadn’t noticed, they’ve rigged the game to benefit only their oligarch pals.

        Some thorazine might help you with that Trump Derangement Syndrome, though.

  13. Have to love sellers, home listed at $1.1 million and they reduce by $75k?
    Sorry folks, when you have buyers who can afford a $1.1 million dollar home they own the deal, in other words reduce by 15% to 20% or take it off the market or sit till you come to your senses.

  14. Where is the recession people? Stock market is higher than ever…

    We’re all gonna be 10 years older by the time this inflated market blows up. Who knows if some of us will be dead and 6ft below ground and will not see it happen.

    1. “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

      -Irving Fisher

      1. “This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, July 12, 2007

    3. It appears that folks tend to think they are the only ones who can’t afford a house or car. But this is a big country so yes if 150 million people doing well just 20% can afford these homes or cars it seems like more are able to buy million dollars homes or 75k cars.
      But 80% really have to go into big time debt or just plain and simple can’t afford even a 300k home?
      I think that this is going to catch up, because the Gov’t fears even a 1/2% rise in interest could chase everybody home and nobody left to buy and that is scary to me.
      Right now 5% mortgage rate shouldn’t scare anybody in a really solid economy yet if rates went to 5% a depression not recession would happen be scared of that scenario?

  15. Deep down I think people can feel how unstable the World is . This feeling of standing on sand brings out the dog eat dog instincts along with live for today,and being open to Ponzi schemes .

    People in general seem so stressed out to me.

      1. “Those most likely to lose sleep over money included Northeasterners, low-income earners and parents with children under 18, the survey found. Of those struggling to sleep, 63 per cent said they are confident they will be able to resolve their biggest issue, the study found.”

        Nothing is Impossible – I CAN slay the Jabberwocky

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaMoR4Xqa08

      2. Financial worries keep most Americans up at night

        I sleep very soundly, and dream about the upcoming vacations I have scheduled for later this year, which I’ll pay cash for. #renterlife #livingbelowonesmeans

    2. Battle lines are being drawn. As the globalists and leftist have captured our institutions of governance and used them to ram through their collectivist agendas, we’re going to see “progressive” mayors and administrations use violent radical-left groups like Antifa as Cultural Revolution-style Red Guards to engage in mob violence against anyone who dares to speak truth to power or challenge The Narrative, while the cops and judiciary act as accessories to this kind of lawlessness. That in turn is going to provoke a backlash, and more street rumbles as more angry white males become increasingly marginalized and fed up with constantly being told that everything is their fault.

      https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/todd-starnes-antifa-portland-mayor

      2. That Good Samaritan should have had a…

        Snake Eye Tactical Everyday Carry Karambit Style Ultra Smooth One Hand Opening Folding Pocket Knife – Ideal for Recreational Work Hiking Camping

        Price: $12.99 & FREE Shipping

        https://www.amazon.com/Snake-Eye-Tactical-Everyday-Karambit/dp/B07Q5986FZ

        The Dangers from Knife and Weapon Slashing

        Just above the knee, where the muscles narrow and connect to the patellar tendon, this area is typically covered by a just single layer of trousers material. It is a comparatively large target, and if someone is close enough to reach your body, that person will clearly also be close enough to reach your quadriceps. Cutting this target is called “mobility kill”, and it means that you will no longer be able to effectively defend yourself. (or hit someone with a crowbar)

        https://www.securitymagazine.com/articles/89752-the-danger-of-slashing

        1. Opening paragraph: “On Monday morning, April 18, 2018, an 8 year-old boy left home with a kitchen knife and walked into his central Minnesota elementary school. Minutes later, he slashed three fellow pupils, ages 8, 9 and 13 years.”

          WTH!

          1. “WTH!”

            I’m very sorry, I didn’t even see that.

            It was the only article I could find that explained a “mobility kill” so I skimmed it for that.

          2. That was my reaction to the described event not the posting. I certainly won’t be forgetting about a mobility kill now.

  17. All you doom and gloomers need to read this RE forecasters observations (he admits his previous 2008 housing call was bad but this time is DIFFERENT!!!) #BelieveSuzanne #buyLyftUber&FakeMeatCompanyStocks #getyousomefreemonies

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/07/01/housing-is-booming-but-investors-are-still-too-scared-to-invest-in-it/#1914d7186291

    The US housing market is booming.

    This past month the number of Americans looking to buy a new house spiked to a three-year high. Mortgage applications jumped 40%.

    Housing Affordability Tells We Are Nowhere Near a “Bust”

    Housing affordability is a primary driver of home prices. And housing is still very affordable for most Americans.

    1. Well, sure, it’s actually quite affordable here if you don’t care about safe neighborhoods, rising property crime and overpriced, failing public school systems.

    2. “…housing is still very affordable for most Americans.”

      Someone is living in an alternative reality.

      1. Many of these two-income families can barely keep-up with the interest due, and likely one (maybe two) generations now have no inkling of equity. They’re living in the moment!

  19. How much validation should we give zildo for there estimates??? This shack I been watching over the last few months had a 930k zestimate in Jan of this year and now its at 635k. What I gather is they just estimate shacks at the list or sale price, nothing more.

    2. I see a lot of questionable ones here as well.

      What I think may be happening is that they use comps from nearby sales to try and hump the value of properties that aren’t selling.

      Here’s an example from my neck of the woods. This ridiculous-looking flip went on the market nearly a year ago, hasn’t sold, is probably REO now, yet Zillow keeps pushing its value higher.

      How can an unsold, unwanted property like this jump over 17% in the past month, when Movoto says prices in 48009 overall have dropped over 20% in the past year, and Zillow themselves are saying it’s going to start losing value as soon as someone stupidly buys it?

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2216-Manchester-Rd-Birmingham-MI-48009/24531969_zpid/

      https://www.movoto.com/birmingham-mi/market-trends/

      I think they just pull these numbers out of their ass.

      1. That’s just insanity right there. What’s sickening is that I hear many people talk about how much they think their homes are worth because of these false estimates courtesy of Zildo. Hope Zildo is class action sued for all these misleading price Zguestimates

      2. I think they just pull these numbers out of their ass.
        Yep. The Zillow estimate for the rental we’re in now was $274K when we got here (July 1, 2015) . Now it’s $396.6K, which, sadly, is probably right but I swear at one point it was well over $400K.

        I had to stop their email alerts about new listings. Too many, and I’ve accepted that we’ll probably rent forever. I don’t give a damn about owning a house, never really did being quite used to it growing up in NYC; it’s the uncertainty and instability (hyper in LV’s RE market) that I hate.

    3. It is absolutely possible to get a very accurate estimate of the actual real time price of a property based on recent comparables. This is one thing big data (well moderately large data) is good at. I used to do this kind of thing at my old job. Big dumb simple regressions you learn about in stats 101 are great at this (horrible at predicting future prices but that is a different story). It is seriously uncomplicated.

      But Zillow doesn’t do that. I know because I listed my house in 2010 for $50,000 above the Zstimate. The next day they upped the Zstimate $47,000.

      There is a legitimate argument to be made that the owners have better information about the house, particularly the condition, than Zillow and that incorporating the list price into the algorithm can account for this But Zillow is basically just moving the estimate right under the list price. They could actually do some machine learning on the pictures to figure out how nice the house actually is on the inside. But they don’t. They just pop the estimate up to the list price every time. Unless the greedhead is asking listing like 25% above actual value. If your list price is above the Zstimate by more than $10,000 then that is a real signal you are asking too much (there are outliers, of course).

      This makes the seller’s happy and makes uninformed buyers think they are getting a reasonable to good deal. But in actuality it’s basically meaningless.

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