We’re Definitely Moving From A Hyper-Market To One Where A Correction Is Underway

1. Eeee-bola Ann Arbor!

   ‘Countywide: $720,500 median selling price, down 2.6% in a year. Irvine 92612: $715,000 median, down 5.3% in a year. Irvine 92614: $725,500 median, down 11% in a year. Irvine 92620: $958,000 median, down 6.6% in a year. Tustin 92780: $585,000 median, down 11.4% in a year’

   Eat yer crowz Thornberg!

   1. Bbbut Danielle Hale said prices wont fall for five years, she was sure of it!

      1. Real Estate expert Diana Olick just warned me that that market is about to “shift” against buyers. Quick, Suzanne, get me Mr. Banker on the phone – I need to lock in a deal on an overpriced shack cuz the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing! Pshaw to all this bursting housing bubble Chicken Little talk – I’m gonna go with what the experts are saying, not a bunch of Nervous Nellies and Debbie Downers on the HBB!

         https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/the-housing-market-is-about-to-shift-in-a-bad-way-for-buyers.html

         1. I didn’t even read that it’s so dumb. “Oh, UHS say hurry up and buy!”

            But it brings up something we are seeing all over the planet: REIC media trying to drum up a deflating bubble. Canada and Australia are crazy about it. Let me tell you something redfin, who said a few months ago Seattle was to the moon Alice! If you are gonna report statistics, fine. If you are a booster, then what you say will always be questioned. The REIC has proven itself to be a bunch of greedy liars, over and over again. Every person who knows anything about real estate knows these things move in slow, multi-year stages. You don’t go from a “hyper-market”, dip a few months and right back again. These markets will have to work through distressed loans, recessions, job loss, etc.

            1. Yup, and trying to kick the can down the road is only going to make the inevitable correction worse.

            2. When Housing Bubble 2.0 bursts in all of its terrible glory, I suspect a lot of shell-shocked FBs who crawl out from under the rubble are going to be permanently vaccinated against ever trusting the REIC touts and shills or their MSM accessories.

            3. Democrats May Inflate Another Housing Bubble
               Subsidies and regulations created the 2008 crisis. Guess what the 2020 candidates are proposing.

               “Politicians and regulators played a central role in the housing boom and bust that led to the 2008 financial crisis. But you’d never know that, judging from the Democratic presidential candidates’ housing proposals, which double down on the policies and interventions that caused the problem in the first place.

               Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants to spend half a trillion dollars over 10 years on “affordable housing” subsidy programs. Under her plan, the federal government would provide down-payment grants for first-time home buyers living in communities that have faced racial discrimination in the past. She would also expand the purview of the Community Reinvestment Act, which is used by federal agencies to pressure mortgage companies into relaxing their lending standards for applicants from certain racial and ethnic groups.

               Sen. Cory Booker, meanwhile, envisions a larger role for the federal government in the residential rental market. His plan is to reduce housing costs via a refundable tax credit for tenants. If more than 30% of your gross income goes toward rent—which is the case for “almost half” of all renters, according to the senator—you would qualify for a payout from Uncle Sam. Perhaps Mr. Booker reasons that subsidies have worked so well in bringing down the cost of college, we should apply them to housing as well.

               Not to be outdone, Sen. Kamala Harris is now pushing a $100 billion homeownership plan of her own. Like Ms. Warren, Ms. Harris aims to reduce racial disparities by targeting minority communities. Participants would receive up to $25,000 to help cover down payments and closing costs.”

               …

            4. When Housing Bubble 2.0 bursts in all of its terrible glory, I suspect a lot of shell-shocked FBs who crawl out from under the rubble are going to be permanently vaccinated against ever trusting the REIC touts and shills or their MSM accessories.

               Or 3.0? 4.0? It won’t happen until TPTB completely lose control. And that hasn’t happened yet.

         2. the olick chick usually reports on past events
            weird prediction
            it’s year 10 of the expansion
            why would anything go up ?

   2. Birmingham prices for generally crappier houses in neighborhoods that are more unkempt, propped up by the university and the hospital. And politics much like Madison.

      1. Wisconsin, not James.

   3. Its a mix problem, thats all. END OF STORY!

   4. I thought ann arbor was nirvana

      can you compare 2005-6 to now for re as % of gdp ?

      1. Did it for you on the other post:

         Can anyone tell us what percentage re is of gdp today vs. 2005 ?

         Residential Fixed Investment | Housing Services | Residential Fixed Investment + Housing Services

         1980 5 12.5 17.5
         1985 5.3 12.5 17.9
         1990 4.5 12.6 17.1
         1995 4.7 12.6 17.4
         2000 4.9 12.4 17.3
         2005 5.9 12.3 18.2
         2010 2.5 12.6 15.1
         2017 3.4 11.8 15.2
         2018 3.3 11.6 14.9
         2017Q4 3.4 11.8 15.2
         2018Q1 3.4 11.7 15.1
         2018Q2 3.3 11.7 15
         2018Q3 3.3 11.6 14.8
         2018Q4 3.2 11.6 14.8
         2019Q1 3.2 11.5 14.7

         Source: National Association of Homebuilders

         1. tx !
            surprised to see the 80’s up there w 2005-6

      2. Well, they played at the Bling Pig once.

         1. Blind Pig. Crap.

            1. The blind pig sits among overpriced high rise apartments (2000$ studio apartments all the way down to $1200 a bed furnished units for students and such) and 8 dollar a cup craft ice cream shops, it’s disgusting. It’s been overrated for decades but the city government has wrecked it utterly now, pseudo liberal developers cowtowing pawns of the REIC. The councilman quoted in the piece from
               MLive, which passes for our local paper but is like a native advertising outlet that replaced our cruddy newspaper a decade ago, ran for mayor recently and lost. Since the late 90s if you don’t shill for and agree with REIC here you have a hard time winning elections

   5. I believe it’s high time for a national Ben Jones Eeee-bola map.

2. ‘several bellwether markets in the West region posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts, including San Diego County, California, (up 16%); Salt Lake County, Utah, (up 11%); Denver County, Colorado, (up 20%); Snohomish County/Seattle, Washington, (up 36%); and Multnomah County/Portland, Oregon, (up 48%)’

   Are we there yet?

   1. all of these are nirvana-esq
      22151 still boomin-= I can see the Pentagon bus from my window

   2. Denver is a dump.

      It took 5 years of legal MJ for the fog to clear and realize what this place really is: coastal used house prices and flyover wages.

      1. mj- traffic fatalities on the rise
         if you mix the new pot a .08 level of booze your incapacitated

         1. As an avid cyclist I’ll place the blame on smartphones.

         2. DUI crashes down in first quarter with Utah’s strict .05% law
            Deseret News
            July 6, 2019
            Pat Reavy

            “SALT LAKE CITY — Alcohol-related crashes were way down during the first quarter of 2019, according to statistics from the Utah Highway Patrol.”

            “But whether that’s because of Utah’s new .05% blood alcohol level — the strictest DUI limit in the nation — was unknown.”

            “”I hope it is, but there isn’t enough data yet,” said UHP Sgt. Nick Street. At the very least, Street believes the new law is creating a “healthy fear” among people who are making arrangements not to drive before going out.”

3. ‘All it took was four years on the market and an epic price cut. The 7K SF apartment at 1110 Park Ave. sold for $17.25M, The Real Deal reports, down from the $35M it was originally asking’

   But we were told half off is unrealistic?

   1. That REALWHORE troll is long gone.

      1. OXIDE
         X
         I
         D
         E

4. “A luxury apartment at Toll Brothers’ Park Avenue condominium building has finally found a buyer. All it took was four years on the market and an epic price cut.

   I just had an epiphany: any property will sell as long as the price is right.

   Time to get serious about sawin’ and slashin’, greedheads.

5. This housing bubble dwarfs the last one. The number of people involved, the total capital, the peak prices, the duration – everything is on a much larger scale. It also seems more stubborn to roll over. When the price declines start in earnest, it’s going to be an absolute bloodbath.

   1. It seems faster to me:

      ‘Nationally, just 12 percent of Redfin offers faced a bidding war in June, down from 52 percent a year earlier…in San Jose, only 6 percent of offers faced competition in June, down from 74 percent a year earlier’

      1. I think it’s faster in the sense that everybody thinks it’s like the stock market now. They don’t get scared, they just prepare to buy the dip. My guess is that will make real capitulation slower than it would have been had it been allowed to occur 10 years ago. And eventually more traumatic.

         1. had it been allowed to occur 10 years ago

            I’m thinking that all the fancy financial engineering props that were put in place then are still in place now, and that they’re failing. To prop up the Ponzi a second time would require things that haven’t even been imagined yet.

            1. “To prop up the Ponzi a second time would require things that haven’t even been imagined yet.”

               Nah, it’s the same old thing – a wall of liquidity. They will just keep throwing more and more money at it.

               “When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

            2. To prop up the Ponzi a second time would require things that haven’t even been imagined yet.

               Maybe we haven’t imagined them yet. But I bet somebody has. Maybe they’ll work…maybe they won’t. But whatever happens, “nobody could have seen it coming”.

            3. I’ve been trying to read a bit about the things “they” will have to do. There is are serious economic papers from faculty at Harvard and Princeton that advocate doing away with paper money. That way every person on earth will have to keep it in a savings account, and every person on earth can be charged negative interest rates for not consuming.

            4. negative interest rates for not consuming

               This is already a fact of life for us. I have a dollar sitting on the dresser. Every year that goes by it is worth a little less. The Federal Reserve…

      2. Eeee-bola Redfin-ished

6. “…Home buying in Irvine and Tustin fell 11% as Orange County sales stalled to the slowest pace since 2014….”

   Lots of open houses this past Weekend.

   Local REIC agents who are regulars at a local Sunday gathering spot for coffee, donuts and chit chat are doing their best to put on a happy face.

   Don’t worry REIC, be happy.

   Guess the earthquakes last Thursday, Friday aren’t pushing sales along either. (Both quakes were surprisingly strong, met some neighbors out front who I haven’t seen in months.)

   1. I hit an open house down the block from me last weekend. It was sparsely attended, and none of the looky-loos in evidence looked like they had the financial means to cover the mortgage on a $300K house. There was a kind of sick desperation in the realtor’s laugh when she assured me that Colorado Springs is not in a bubble.

      1. “Colorado Springs is not in a bubble”

         I have worked with more than a few “super-commuters” who drive from the Springs to work in metro Denver every day.

         1. Take the 25 and drive until you can afford the mortgage?

            1. Except nobody there says “the 25”. Except maybe a recent Californian.

            2. The 25 is not the 405, yet. When the traffic gets that bad it earns the preface of a definite article…

            3. Denver is large enough now that you can’t say, “meet me at sundown by the big oak tree.”

            4. True. But they say “I-25”, not “the 25”. Californians are the only ones I ever heard say it the second way.

7. HAVE YOU READ THE MUELLER REPORT ?? I have not but I plan on reading this over the weekend and if its what some think it says, then in the words of that most famous United States President; I’m Fooked…

   It feels as if nobody read the Mueller report. That’s a shame, because it’s an important document, depicting possible crimes by a sitting US president.

   But not reading it makes sense. As a narrative, the document is a disaster. And at 448 pages, it’s too long to grind through. For long stretches, it reads less like a story and more like a terms-of-service agreement. The instinct to click “next” is strong.

   And yet, buried within the Mueller report, there is a narrative that reads in parts like a thriller, like a comedy, like a tragedy — and, most important — like an indictment. The facts are compelling, all the more so because they come not from President Donald Trump’s critics or “fake news” reports, but from Trump’s own handpicked colleagues and associates. The story just needed to be rearranged in a better form.

   So we hired Mark Bowden, a journalist and author known for his brilliant works of narrative nonfiction like “Black Hawk Down,” “Killing Pablo,” and “Hue 1968.”

   Our assignment for him was simple. Use the interviews and facts laid out in the Mueller report (plus those from reliable, fact-checked sources and published firsthand accounts) to do what he does best: Tell a story recounting Mueller’s report that’s so gripping it will hold your attention (and maybe your congressional representative’s).

   We also hired Chad Hurd, an illustrator from the art department of “Archer.” We asked him to draw out scenes from the report to bring them to life.

   https://www.insider.com/mueller-report-rewritten-trump-russia-mark-bowden-archer-2019-7?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mueller%20Report%20Alert%20Send%20-%2007102019&utm_term=Mueller%20Campaign%20-%20Alert%20Send%2007102019

   1. Sorry for the long post Ben….

      1. Bro!! First of all you totally wrecked the flow of the comments… things were going great until you brought your off topic (late to the party) weird rant. Whoooahhh… that was weird. Seriously 😳 now back to what is important. Thank you. I mostly just read comments but you annoyed me so much by knocking my morning read off the tracks I had to say something.

   2. Trumpy won, Hillary lost.

      Get over it and get on with your life.

      1. Thats why you keep beating your Obama/Hilary drum 2.5 years later…Its all you got…

         1. your…drum 2.5 years later

            Seems a bit hypocritical.

            1. A there you are “right on cue”…

            2. I was here the whole time.

      2. dtRumpsis Tantrumeois Chaostsis

         “Trade War$ are ea$y, … but complicated!”

   3. Lol, more fake news in the form of a comic book fantasy so the 80 IQ parents of antifa members can echo in their nearly empty chambers. Russians stole Democrat emails? That was presented in the report with no proof whatsoever. Just keep on clinging to lies while the the noose of justice tightens around your Marxist pedo hero’s of the left more each day. By the way, who sat on the board of the Clinton Foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative? Pedos and human traffickers- look it up Weinstein! Brock Pierce paying you in bitcoin from his lair in Puerto Rico to post lies like this?

      1. + 1 – Nice rant!

      2. http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com

      3. I find this comment pretty scary, and my response goes to both sides — the real nastiest regimes of history have painted their opponents as something beyond the pale. Sexually depraved. Cannibals. Witches. Etc.

         I think pedophilia is horrible, but not a causal factor in one’s political views.

         Let’s all just agree it’s horrible and leave it at that.

         1. Agreeing it’s horrible is not enough. It needs to be screamed from the rooftops until justice is served though the heavens may fall when deranged child molesters and human traffickers are in positions of influence and authority. And that applies to both parties.

            1. +1

         2. I think pedophilia is horrible, but not a causal factor in one’s political views.

            Funny how the Democrat rank-and-file have such defective moral compasses that they have no problem explaining away or ignoring the depravity and corruption the characterizes their party’s top echelons and (especially) its donors and puppet masters.

      4. “the noose of justice tightens around your Marxist pedo hero’s of the left more each day”

         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCcp1ilOqfQ

   4. Another of your hero’s is going down scdave

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-10/democratic-donor-sued-human-trafficking-revenge-porn-after-2nd-man-died-his-home

      Gonna feel like the walls are caving in when trump wins re-election in a landslide

      1. Forgot to mention above little bug eyes himself, Adam Schiffty goes way back with that monster.

         And the hits just keep on coming:
         https://www.foxnews.com/us/prominent-democratic-donor-terry-bean-indicted-on-sex-abuse-charges

      2. The only landslide is going to be the mountain of evidence that not only Trump but most of the GOP sold out to the Russians and don’t give a damn about this country except for their own personal gain. Try commenting when you’re off the medication.

         1. the mountain of evidence

            Seems an unlikely prediction since after years of digging there isn’t even a grain of sand to support the accusations.

         2. There is a Russian under your bed be careful. Lol I remember when conservatives were concerned about the Soviet Union when they were a legitimate threat and were ridiculed. Russia funds antifracking groups and has done so for years without any protest from the left. Yet they go crazy over around $600,000 in Facebook ads in a billion dollar election. I guarantee by several order of magnitude more foreign money supported both Hillary and Obama.

            1. I supported Reagan and real conservatives on this and he knew Russia was trying to divide and conquer us even back then.
               Putin is not to be trusted.

         3. yup. We can see this every day.
            Supporters of trump dont even care he hits us with over $100 mill spent traveling to his own hotels.
            There are no fiscal conservatives left in Congress.
            Mcconnel – can we vote on those 131 house bills on your desk?

            1. What does this have to do with housing? I don’t mind people mentioning something, but I’m not going to sit here all day and moderate political bickering. Would you?

            2. I get it. I was responding to ABQdan comment on Russia.
               I see lots of OT pro-trump posting.

      3. Detailed coverage of this case: http://www.jasmyneacannick.com/series/gemmel-moore/

         1. “Every single man I interviewed about Ed Buck discussed in detail his fetish with white underwear but more importantly–their Black bodies in that white underwear and his use of co*k rings and other things.”

            Hehe…kinda heavy for free TV.

         2. In the interest of being “fair and balanced,” the Franklin scandal and cover-up implicate Republicans in equally despicable behavior.

   5. LOLZ. How sad. Maybe focus on finding an electable candidate, buddy.

   6. So Russian intelligence leaked a fake report on Trump getting urinated on by prostitutes in a Russian hotel room because it wanted to hurt the Hillary campaign? Wasn’t the whole foundation of the case to investigate Trump for Russian collusion based on information derived from Clinton operatives colluding with Russia to find or fabricate dirt on Trump? It’s upside down world. The whole narrative is so convoluted, concocted, and farcical. If you believe in Trump-Russia collusion, I have some flipped luxury condos in Ann Arbor you may be interested in. I have not been a member of either political party in thirty years. I have nothing invested in the Gray Old Pervert Party. The Russia collusion hoax is the dumbest thing I’ve seen in politics in my lifetime.

      1. +1000

   7. I am going to laugh myself unconscious when the whole Trump-Russian collusion story turns out to have been a propaganda campaign by Russian intelligence to undermine Trump by portraying him as a Russian puppet. Don’t put it past the masters of the game of Chess.

8. Oh dear…if pre-foreclosures are spiking in New York City, recipient of trillions in Yellen Bux malinvestment, what is the pre-foreclosure situation out in flyover country?

   https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-10/pre-foreclosures-are-spiking-across-new-york-city-0

   1. It probably isn’t as bad where there were less Yellen bux, right?

9. Better get out there and buy before things get nutty again!

   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-home-buyers-could-see-bidding-wars-if-this-trend-continues-155049072.html

10. San Luis Obispo, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As California Central Coast Housing Market Staggers

    https://www.movoto.com/san-luis-obispo-ca/market-trends/

11. Remember The Hand Model Who Poked The Pillsbury Dough Boy?
    Matthew Kassel Apr. 11, 2012, 1:30 PM

    Of course, you’d probably remember his cute little face over her intruding finger, but Jackie Dunphy’s claim to fame as a hand model was poking the stomach of the Pillsbury Doughboy.
    Hands age, however, and while she still models semi-regularly, she now works as a saleswoman at Corcoran Group in East Hampton.

    Dunphy is just one of the many real estate brokers who have had really interesting first careers featured in a New York Times article by Elizabeth A. Harris.

    Others include Terrence Harding, a vice president at Corcoran, once named Kleptomaniac, who used to run with Junior M.A.F.I.A., the rap group of Notorious B.I.G.; Fredrik Eklund, who acted as a gay-porn star before becoming a broker at Prudential Douglas Elliman; and Haviland Morris, who now works at Halstead Property but worked for 25 years as an actress, appearing in the movie Sixteen Candles.

    1. “Hands age, however…”

       “A woman is only as young as her neck.” —Proverb

12. Per The Big Short: “it’s just a gully really, just nerves”

    The the cheerleaders go at it. Greater selection of foreclosures to choose from soon. Waiting for the waterfront with nice dock and lift for mid size boat.

13. Here come the lower interest rates. Housing might start to go up and up again. They will do everything to never let the market drop. Too big to fail. More sales for homes coming in the Fall.

    Oh well, I can’t worry for sh!te that I can not control.

    I’ll keep renting then.

    1. Until you see hyper inflation it just does not look like they will stop. You cannot prevent inflation by printing money. You can raise nominal prices by printing money. Both the federal reserve and the treasury are capable of printing money in the practical sense. Thus without a political restrict against creating money the PTB will print without restraint to prop things up. Paper money was invented and failed in China first. I guess it is fitting that the world wide bubble based on printing really currency aka paper money will fail there first but I do not see that as imminent although without a trade deal I see a rapid cooling of the economy

    2. The bond market priced in the fed rate cut, it won’t drive mortgage rates lower (the news perked up the 10 year treasury). Powell’s remarks won’t change housing’s direction.

       1. Many buyers do not know that even if it is true and only time will tell. Do you not think many people will hear about a rate cut and then be motivated to shop for a house?

       2. “Powell’s remarks won’t change housing’s direction.”

          I dunno…Diana is already excited.

    3. “Here come the lower interest rates.”

       Christmas 1976 my brother got me two 8 track tapes. 🙂

       But they were good, Hotel California and The Pretender by Jackson Browne.

       Your post reminded me of a song from that album I haven’t listened to in almost 40 years.

       Jackson Browne….Here Comes Those Tears Again

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4JGIT3Ookk

14. Milpitas, CA Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Santa Clara County Mortgage Fraud Reaches Unprecedented Level

    https://www.zillow.com/milpitas-ca/home-values/

    *Select sale price from dropdown menu on first chart

15. Yes the fixed investment seems right. Almost twice as much in 2005. Any idea why housing services would be so high when building and you would presume sales are so much lower?

16. I have a feeling the Deutsche Bank and Epstein saga are gonna wake up many red hats. Or at least I hope so. Many familiar names coming out of the woodwork including Clinton. It’s all gross!

    1. Ben Jones this post should be blocked and the poster banned.

       Oh wait, this isn’t Facebook and Twitter.

       1. Not much of a debate.

17. Foreclosure activity is picking up the summer selling season was a bust…fall and winter will be a disaster…

18. “Multnomah County/Portland, Oregon, (up 48%)”

    Nice! Might be time to reach out to some title companies. See what’s doing.

    Everyone here still thinks they own a $700K+ house, but keep it coming, Portland!

    1. “Multnomah County/Portland, Oregon, (up 48%)”

       After 7-months of winter overcast and drizzle the California equity locusts will break camp and head for Las Vegas or Phoenix.

       1. “overcast and drizzle”

          Interesting you bring that up. Apparently our summer so far has been a little wetter this year than in recent years, which has caused some chatter. Some grumbling from Californians and some polite reminders from locals that this (wetter, even in Summer) was the norm 15-20 years ago.

          1. Some grumbling from Californians

             Good, hopefully it chases them away!

             The occasional rain has been nice, and saving me time and money in not having to water the lawn.

19. ILHAN OMAR CALLS FOR AD BOYCOTT OF TUCKER CARLSON OVER ‘WHITE SUPREMACIST RHETORIC’

    Jamie White | Infowars.com – JULY 10, 2019

    “Fox News is now giving a nightly platform to white supremacist rhetoric. It’s dangerous,” Omar tweeted Wednesday. “Advertisers should not be underwriting hate speech.”

    Shortly after Tucker’s Tuesday segment, Omar gloated that “racist fool” Carlson was “weeping” over the fact she’s a member of Congress.

    “Omar isn’t ‘disappointed’ in America. She’s enraged by it. Virtually every public statement she makes accuses America of bigotry and racism. This is an immoral country, she says. She has undisguised contempt for the United States and for its people. That should worry you, and not just because Omar is now a sitting member of Congress. Omar is living proof that that the way we practice immigration has become dangerous to this country,” Carlson said.

    The left has frequently targeted Fox News with ad boycotts, going after both Tucker Carlson for his views on illegal immigration and Laura Ingraham for mocking gun control advocate David Hogg.

    Clearly, the boycotts haven’t succeeded, as Tucker Carlson Tonight and the Ingraham Angle are among the top-rated news shows on cable.

    https://www.infowars.com/ilhan-omar-calls-for-ad-boycott-of-tucker-carlson-over-white-supremacist-rhetoric/

    1. It seems to me that if Omar hates this Country she should go back to that hellhold she came from.

       A American like Tucker expressing ideas like we should correct this unlawful immigration system is free speech. She thinks only she has free speech. Who voted for for this anti-American Omar?
       I think there is a problem letting people in this Country that hate America and want to tear down the foundations of this Country.

       1. +1

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