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I Overheard Two Women Talking About How The Housing Market Was Crashing Again

A report from The Daily Camera in Colorado. “Housing markets around the state are beginning to cool down, and Boulder County is no exception, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors. Statewide, median prices for single-family homes slipped just under 1% to $407,000 and also were down 1.6% for condos/townhomes sitting at $310,000, the report stated. The prices of townhomes and condos in Boulder County have fallen further than those of single-family homes, with the median price declining of 3.7% year-to-date. ‘In Boulder County, it appears the days of the seller’s market are over,’ the report stated. ‘Buyers rejoice … prices seem reasonable and the bidding war days seem like a distant memory.'”

“The condo/townhome inventory in the seven-county Denver metro area is up 19% from a year ago and the statewide market is up more than 7% in active inventory from June 2018, according to the report. In Broomfield County, new listings are up 21%, with 18% of them selling in less than 32 days, according to the report, but median home prices are up just 1% since the beginning of the year. ‘It appears the days of the seller’s market are over here as well,’ the report stated.”

The Tallahassee Democrat in Florida. “For the past several years, the real estate market has seen higher than normal appreciation rates when it comes to home values. This year, we are still seeing home values on the rise, but the rate of growth has slowed to a normal level. On the other hand, condominium values have declined throughout the year due to the glut of units still remaining as a result of the housing market expansion phase that ended in 2006.”

The Arizona Republic. “In June, I was in a Phoenix doctor’s office and overheard two women talking about how the housing market was ‘crashing again.’ While I waited, I couldn’t help but listen as one woman told the other that her home’s value could fall like it did during the crash of 2009.”

“Real estate experts don’t see signs of a crash looming. ‘It’s not happening’ said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report, about a potential plummet in the area’s home prices. ‘It’s still a sellers’ market, but people need to be reasonable and not crazy about pricing their home,’ said veteran agent Bobby Lieb.”

From Seattle PI in Washington. “The newly released Northwest MLS statistics showed Seattle’s condo marketing trudging along in June with more of the same we’ve been experiencing – more inventory, a slower sales pace and stagnant values. Compared to a year ago the median sales price for condos in Seattle dipped 6.24% to $494,990. It was the 6th consecutive month that the citywide median sales price underperformed 2018 levels.”

“But, that doesn’t mean the market is in a death spiral. In fact, Seattle condo values have stabilized over the past several months around the $490,000 price point, even with an influx of inventory and slower sales activity. The number of listings stayed about the same as last month at 694 Seattle condo units for sale, though that reflected an 86% increase in inventory over last June.”

From Mansion Global on New York. “Manhattan luxury home deals plummeted in the first week of the month after a hike in the city’s mansion tax, according to a report. Buyers signed contracts for only nine homes priced at $4 million or more in the week ending Sunday, a 64% decline from the previous week, according to the weekly roundup from Olshan Realty. There wasn’t a single deal over $10 million last week, which is rare for Manhattan.”

From Martha’s Vineyard Times in Massachusetts. “I have been suggesting for several months that a sluggish market might be a sign that prices are just too high. I am seeing more and more price reductions on homes that have not had enough activity at the offered price and have considerable room to negotiate. This could be the ideal opportunity to buy the home of your dreams at a lower-than-current-average pricing would suggest, combined with excellent financing terms.”

“Before you disregard a property based on price in this market, review what the price of any property should be with your buyer-broker rather than what the listing agent and seller determined was a good list price months ago. After several price reductions, you may not have as much negotiating room as a home that has been lingering, so watch for new reductions or those homes that are priced higher than the current market would suggest.”

“After multiple price reductions totalling $500,000 and a motivated seller, the masterfully crafted home at 114 Middle Road in Chilmark is ready for picking. I would be anxious to hear from buyers, as I walk you through this 5-year-old home with the highest quality materials, why this is not the perfect opportunity to just make an offer.”

This Post Has 66 Comments
  1. ‘It’s still a sellers’ market, but people need to be reasonable and not crazy about pricing their home’

    But Bobby, they can just wait six months and it’s to the moon Alice!, right?

    ‘the median sales price for condos in Seattle dipped 6.24% to $494,990. It was the 6th consecutive month that the citywide median sales price underperformed 2018 levels’

    Eat yer crowz redfin, you shameless, bashtards! 500k for a box of air.

    1. Half a mil for an airbox in a city plagued with homeless encampments and sidewalk doo-doo. Where do I sign up?

    2. I like to go to open houses here in SoCal and talk to people. I haven’t kept track of the numbers but seems the clear majority of owners at open houses I’ve visited are leaving the state. A lot of long time residents leaving for lower cost states like Tennessee and the Carolinas.

      1. Most families in our immediate circle who are done with SoCal living costs and relocating are leaving the state. I can only think of one case where they are relocating in state (to NorCal, for a job change).

  2. “Real estate experts don’t see signs of a crash looming. ‘It’s not happening’ said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report, about a potential plummet in the area’s home prices.

    This industry of dissemblers said the same thing as Housing Bubble 1.0 began to implode. Listen to these liars at your own peril.

  3. “beginning to cool down, and Boulder County is no exception, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors”

    Wha…..? I was told ‘it’s location, location, location.’ What happened?

      1. The Wall Street Journal
        Markets
        As Recession Fears Rise, Skittish Investors Sell Riskiest Junk Bonds
        Signs of weakness in risky corporate bonds are emerging as the Treasury market has begun to send recession signals
        Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated this week that continuing global economic uncertainty could lead the central bank to lower interest rates at its July meeting.
        Photo: leah millis/Reuters
        By Daniel Kruger
        July 12, 2019 8:00 am ET

        As anxiety over an economic downturn creeps higher, investors have been avoiding one of the riskiest markets for corporate debt.

        The amount of extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold company bonds rather than safe government debt has jumped since March by 0.62 percentage point for triple-C-rated company bonds versus a 0.07 percentage point decrease for junk debt with higher double-B ratings. Bond yields rise when prices fall.

        The trend is concerning because it contrasts with the fresh records in stock prices and the widespread hunt for yield that fueled a world-wide rally in bonds. It is also troubling because companies with the lowest bond ratings are typically the most vulnerable to the effects of an economic downturn.

        The moves are also important because they send a different signal than the more stable spreads paid by companies with better bond ratings. Investors view credit spreads as an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy and the corporate sector in particular. Given the limited upside potential of bonds—which in a welcome scenario are repaid in full at maturity—debt investors have a reputation for being sensitive to risks and changes in the economy.

          1. The confounding paradox in every debt-based fiat monetary system is that apparent prosperity can only grow in proportion to latent underlying instability and risk. Hence, everything is great but holy crap the system is about to implode.

          2. “Low inflation”

            Sure, in a fantasy world. In reality, inflation has been massive. Shelter, food, fuel, insurance, healthcare – pretty much everything needed to live and survive on earth.

        1. This stock-market canary has keeled over
          By Tomi Kilgore
          Published: July 13, 2019 1:19 p.m. ET
          Russell 2000 index, high-yield bond underperformance is warning that something is wrong with liquidity
          Getty Images

          A stock-market index of small caps is at its weakest versus the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, suggesting the market has a liquidity problem.

          Although the three main U.S. stock indexes — the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.90% S&P 500 SPX, +0.46% and Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +0.59% — continue to climb to records, there are some early warnings that trouble lies beneath the surface of an otherwise run-of-the-mill ascent to fresh heights.

    1. Nearly the entire city of New Orleans is built below sea level.

      In a location that regularly gets hit by hurricanes.

      The socialist democrats will link the flooding to global warming…

      1. “Nearly the entire city of New Orleans is built below sea level.”

        Is it more expensive to build in the middle-east or below sea level?

      1. That was very interesting…and ominous. Looks like a great place to park that diesel F-350 that’s two payments behind. 🙂

      2. worlds most detrimental natural disasters in history

        Didn’t the river used to run through the ‘Chaflaya Basin?

        1. My understanding is that the river has reached the point in geologic history where it naturally would change channels from its current course, through NOLA, to the Atchafalaya Basin, a considerable distance to the west, but engineering has thus far prevented Mother Nature from completing the process.

  4. “Compared to a year ago the median sales price for condos in Seattle dipped 6.24% to $494,990. It was the 6th consecutive month that the citywide median sales price underperformed 2018 levels.”

    Try not to catch yourself a falling knife snapping up condo investment properties in the Emerald City.

    “But, that doesn’t mean the market is in a death spiral. In fact, Seattle condo values have stabilized over the past several months…”

    It does not compute.

        1. Obama showed us the way.

          Call anyone who disagrees with you a racist to shut down the debate when you have the losing argument.

          The democrats never expected this technique to be used AGAINST them.

          DJT landslide in 2020 if the massive voter fraud can be controlled

      1. When I got rear ended in a hit and run in Denver last year I didn’t even bother calling Denver Police. I did call Denver City Council and left a message thanking them for the culture of lawlessness that their sanctuary city policies promote.

        1. “When I got rear ended in a hit and run in Denver last year I didn’t even bother calling Denver Police.”

          The Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Department and The Jupiter Police don’t like being bothered with the paper work from a hit and run involving an illegal alien with no drivers licence, insurance and a bad tag either.

          The only one of mine that was found to have anymore than a bad tag on the wrong vehicle was the one I found after searching for a couple of hours

      2. I know…

        I just wish people would confront the race baiters.

        Immigrant is not a race, there are Immigrants of all races.

        Trump doesn’t hate immigrants, he married 2. Ivana and Melania.

        Hispanic is not a race, there are Hispanics of all races. Jorge Ramos is white and Hispanic.

        Muslims is not a race. It’s a religion and there are muslims of all races

        Latino is not a race, there are a Latinos of all races.

        I always ask these race baiters to explain to me what race is Trump racist against and give me an example.

        Til this day, no answer, they can’t answer that.

    1. The new left is just insane. The old left wingers had some intelligence and that is why there is some overlap between Bernie’s voters and Trump. The old left led by trade unions wanted strict immigration limits and tariffs on importing goods from countries with very low wages and no regulations. The new left has been trained by the .01 percent like Palov’s dogs to support any policy the .01 percent wants, they only have to say it is against racism, supports diversity or fights AGW and they will protest for it. Trump who is hated by the new left would have been embraced as a Democrat not that long ago.

        1. I’m again reminded of when I read that, without massive changes in our way of doing things, humanity only had about 10 years left. BTW, that was back in the 80s.

      1. There’s a reason they’re insane— the right wing strategy of people like Steve bannon. It’s not just amusing to bait the left, it’s politically useful. Bait them into anger and upset so that they dismiss the “right” and then the base for Bannon can be ever more “reasonably “ aggrieved. I think he’s actually written extensively about it as a tactic

    2. Colorado Springs is being flooded by illegals. Unsurprisingly, in the past few weeks there has been an increase in lone women being assaulted in area parks and hiking trails by “white or Hispanic male” suspects. That was practically unheard of until recently. Enjoy your vibrant cultural enrichment, ladies.

  5. “I would be anxious to hear from buyers, as I walk you through this 5-year-old home with the highest quality materials, why this is not the perfect opportunity to just make an offer.”

    Because I can buy it next year at a much lower price.

    Because we are a nation addicted to low interest rates, and rates will never spike back up.

    Because people are broke and stretched thin already.

    Because the new tax laws don’t benefit homeownership anymore.

    Because prices are sinking and will continue to sink.

    This ain’t rocket surgery!

    1. “Because we are a nation addicted to low interest rates, and rates will never spike back up.

      Because prices are sinking and will continue to sink.”

      Because the low rates, abolition of downpayments and lending standards, and housing market reflation-back-to-unaffordable-prices cards have already been played.

      The REIC is out of cards to goose collapsing owner-occupied purchase demand.

      1. There are still more cards to play, unfortunately.

        Next up:
        1. Negative interest rate mortgages.
        2. Government funded cash bonuses for buying a home. After all, deficits don’t matter. Propping up otherwise unsustainable markets is now official policy.

  6. The exit doors are narrow. Those who panic first may survive the inferno…

    “After multiple price reductions totalling $500,000 and a motivated seller, the masterfully crafted home at 114 Middle Road in Chilmark is ready for picking. I would be anxious to hear from buyers, as I walk you through this 5-year-old home with the highest quality materials, why this is not the perfect opportunity to just make an offer.”

    1. I would be anxious to hear from buyers, as I walk you through this 5-year-old home with the highest quality materials, why this is not the perfect opportunity to just make an offer.”

      Why buy now when the real cratering hasn’t even started? However, out of the kindness of my heart, I just might take the “perfect opportunity” to enlighten this seller as to the housing market bloodbath that’s bearing down on him. Although most, I’ve noticed, don’t much appreciate such sage advice.

      1. I’ve noticed through the years that most people are clueless to the point of oblivion about market cycles. The number of individuals who ever heeded my advice to only purchase a home in California at the height of a financial crisis, when everyone else is panicking and worried about potential job loss while inventories and mortgage defaults are rising, is vanishingly small. Most people don’t have the patience that could save them a half-decade’s worth of take home pay on a home purchase.

  7. “Real estate experts don’t see signs of a crash looming. ‘It’s not happening’ said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report, about a potential plummet in the area’s home prices.”

    When did they replace “shill” with “expert?”

  8. “Sure, in a fantasy world. In reality, inflation has been massive. Shelter, food, fuel, insurance, healthcare – pretty much everything needed to live and survive on earth.”

    Shelter is a major part of any inflation index. It is a bit inconsistent to post how housing and rent prices are dropping and then say shelter cost inflation is massive. It has been massive now it is not. Also, on numerous prices I am seeing deflation. Bought some cashews at Costco today and paid $9.99 compared to the $14.99 I have been paying lately. A year ago, I think they were about $12.00. Paid $2.20 a gallon for gasoline compared to about $2.29 a week ago. Could all be special factors like last week being holiday but I have been seeing more and more of this the last few months. I am not surprised that the Federal Reserve sees it in its inflation measures.

  9. The supply of Yellen bux is being diminished. The federal reserve has reduced the rate of decline recently but after Trump took over it began to reduce its balance sheet. This is putting downward pressure on housing. In the oil patch it is going to lead to lower production and higher prices. I was not wrong about the cost to produce the oil, what I did not anticipate how long oil companies could produce oil at a loss. More than a quarter trillion dollars was lost but people were desperate to put Yellen bux to work in a massive misallocation of capital. However, sanity is coming back to the market, and despite the oil price being around $60 a barrel, oil drilling continues to drop. Shale oil wells often lose as much as 50% of their daily production in the first six months, so it will not take long for production to stagnate or even drop, in fact you already see signs of it occurring. We are up around 200,000 barrels from November but last year we gain more than 100,000 barrels a day month after month. At the high we added around 2 million barrels a day yoy we are down to 1.4 million. Global demand is still increasing yoy at around that level.
    https://www.rigzone.com/news/permian_leads_us_in_rig_count_decline-12-jul-2019-159297-article/

  10. Opinion: Donald Trump is right about bitcoin
    By Brett Arends
    Published: July 13, 2019 11:32 a.m. ET
    Cryptocurrencies are a pure gamble with no discernible fundamentals whatsoever
    Mark Wilson/Getty Images

    Thank you, Mr. President.

    Donald Trump’s comments about bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies on Thursday were right on target.

    He’s right: Their value is “based on thin air.” Your typical cryptocurrency is basically a “frequent flyers” program, only without any airline attached. You hope someone will accept your “miles” for something real. But there’s no guarantee.

    He’s right: They are ”highly volatile.” In the past two years bitcoin (BTCUSD, +2.42%) has gone from $19,000 to $3,200 and back up to $11,000 and change.

    He’s right: They can “facilitate unlawful behavior.” I’d argue that’s their main use.

    And he’s right: If Facebook (FB, +1.81%) wants to launch its own currency, it should seek a banking charter.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/donald-trump-is-right-about-bitcoin-2019-07-12?mod=mw_theo_homepage

    1. Electrician joke: how many socialists does it take to change a light bulb?

      Nobody knows, there hasn’t been electricity since the Revolution.

  11. “This year, we are still seeing home values on the rise, but the rate of growth has slowed to a normal level. ”

    I remember seeing at the start of 2008, a long-haired RE guy on CNBC say that 2008 would be a more “normal” market (perhaps with “only” 5% price appreciation rather than 20% or 25% per year).

    And then…. the bottom dropped out of the housing and stock market some months later.

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