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You Do Opens And No One Turns Up, There’s So Many Available

A report from the Toronto Star in Canada. “The number of newer rental apartments in the GTA that are empty and ready for new tenants is at its highest level since a leading real-estate consulting firm started keeping track in 2015. According to Urbanation’s survey of purpose-built apartments completed since 2005, the average vacancy rate rose from a low of 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of last year to 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of this year.”

“The Toronto firm added that the ‘availability rate” — which includes vacant units as well as occupied units where the tenant has given notice to leave — jumped from 1.4 per cent to 2.3 per cent over the same time period. The vacancy and availability calculations don’t include buildings that started moving in tenants in the past 12 months, the firm notes.”

“‘This is the result of rental development planning that goes back a few years now. These units are starting to reach completion. What we’re seeing is that over the last 12 months we’ve reached a 25-year high for new rental (apartment building) completions,’ said Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation.”

From Ahval News on Turkey. “Turkish construction companies will likely take two years to sell their stock of unsold homes after a slump in the housing market, according to Feyzullah Yetgin, head of a top industry body. ‘Delayed property price increases will be made when the market enlivens and interest rates have fallen,’ Yetgin said. ‘Therefore, it’s an advantageous market for buyers right now.'”

From Al-Monitor on Iran. “Iran’s housing sector is in a dire state, with prices skyrocketing and sales plummeting across the country, especially in metropolises. While the housing capital gains tax is expected to be levied in the foreseeable future, implementation of the empty homes tax seems farther off. It requires a national system to keep track of the estimated 2.6 million empty homes and a further 2.1 million second homes across the country, some of which are luxury homes unaffordable for most.”

“According to housing expert Mehdi Soltan Mohammadi, even if the two tax initiatives are successfully implemented, they cannot be expected to affect more change than partially reducing speculative activities.”

From Mansion Global on Dubai. “Dubai house prices plummeted to their lowest levels in over a decade last quarter, according to new data from U.A.E.-based property firm Cavendish Maxwell. The average single-family home price sunk 24% over the past year to AED1.82 million (US$495,500), a level not seen in over 11 years despite a global recession and regional economic meltdowns over the past decade.”

“The average house, referred to locally as a villa, is now trading for less than it did during the darkest days of the global financial crisis and subsequent credit crunch, which hit Dubai the hardest in 2010-11. It’s also lower than at any point since oil prices crashed in 2015, according Property Monitor, which is powered by Cavendish Maxwell. In June alone, the average home price—including both single-family houses and apartments—fell over 15% compared to a year ago.”

The South China Morning Post. “Property sales are back in full swing. Six developers are selling 817 units, including Hong Kong’s smallest flat, in the biggest weekend sale since protests against the controversial extradition bill started in early June. On Sunday, Jiayuan International and Stan Group will offer 344 units at their T-Plus project in Tuen Mun, with sizes ranging from 128 square feet to 387 sq ft. Of these, 12 flats measuring 128 sq ft – smaller than a car parking space – are targeted at first-time buyers.”

“The new price is up to 37.6% lower on a per square foot basis than a 131 sq ft studio at T-Plus, which the developer put on the market for HK$2.85 million last November. The project is likely to sell easily, said Richard Lee, chief executive of Hong Kong Property (Services). ‘The price cut this time is quite large, so some buyers will be attracted,’ said Lee.”

From Domain News in Australia. “Sydney tenants are haggling over rents or leaving for newer properties as the city’s building boom continues to reduce rents with suburbs recording declines of up to 25 per cent in the past year, new figures show. ‘The construction boom that has gone on for the past four to five years has definitely pushed down rents and has helped tenants,’ said Domain economist Trent Wiltshire.”

“Ray White Lane Cove senior property manager Tanya Marr said she only had three applications after opening 30 properties for inspections. ‘[Tenants] are moving out of old properties and moving into brand new places for cheaper,’ Ms Marr said. ‘Why would you live in a place that’s 10 years old when you can move into a brand new property for the same price or less than what you’re paying? You do opens and no one turns up, there’s so many available.'”

“Patrick Cowie Real Estate managing director Patrick Cowie said in a competitive market like Curl Curl, rentals needed to be price sensitive with comparable houses and units. He said many landlords in the region who were highly leveraged would be better off leasing their properties for a discount than leaving them vacant. ‘If your stock is similar to other stock, asking for what you leased it for in the past is not going to work again,’ he said.”

From Total Croatia News. “Official statistics show a strong season in Split, but apartment owners complain of poor bookings. I went in search of the official statistics, and my jaw hit the floor. In 2010, there were just 4,454 private accommodation units in the Split area. The total number of beds was 7,490 (including hostels and hotels etc).”

“In 2019, there were 24,002 private accommodation units in the Split area. The total number of the beds in the city was 32,576 (including hostels and hotels etc). I just hope not too many owners of the 24,002 units took out expensive loans to be paid off by bumper rentals. Oversupply? I think so.”


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This Post Has 60 Comments

  1. ‘The average house, referred to locally as a villa, is now trading for less than it did during the darkest days of the global financial crisis and subsequent credit crunch, which hit Dubai the hardest in 2010-11. It’s also lower than at any point since oil prices crashed in 2015’

    Worser and worser.

    1. I went to an open house last weekend in San Diego and the showing agent asked me to sign the guest book so she could track/show the owners how the open house sessions were going. There was only one name in the guest book when I signed it.

    2. “Dubai house prices plummeted to their lowest levels in over a decade last quarter, according to new data from U.A.E.-based property firm Cavendish Maxwell.

      Dubai is hot, humid and horrible. The 3 H’s.

  2. You do opens and no one turns up, there’s so many available.’”

    Lowering the price would fix that, Ms. Marr.

  4. ‘I just hope not too many owners of the 24,002 units took out expensive loans to be paid off by bumper rentals’

    Jeebus knows they took on whopping big loans in Toronto and Sydney and now they are fooked!

  5. Who turned out the lights in Manhattan?

    Some friends of ours had their Carnegie Hall performance cancelled as a result.

      1. Yeah, and then they all want to plug their Teslas into the windmills for recharging on top of it. LOL

        1. Yes because slaughtering eagles and other birds is green. Not to mention that there is no way to recycle the blades etc. when they reach the end of their lives in 15 to 20 years. They are neither green nor economic but crony capitalists make a fortune on them.

          BTW, China has reached 250 million cars with less than 1.5% of the cars being electric. There is not enough lithium and cobalt to create 250 million EV cars never mind replace the rest of the world’s cars. https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/1907047876/
          We could have gone to NG fueled vehicles which is a practical solution both economically and environmentally. We could produce electricity with new technology nuclear. However, the adults have left the room so it is not even that the perfect is the enemy of the good, it is we are being run by infants who believe you an run a country on fairly dust.

          2. Plenty of minerals

            Strip mining in the Amazon. Tesla is an economic and ecological disaster.

          3. Strip mining in the Amazon. Tesla is an economic and ecological disaster.

            Amazon = South America (Brazil)
            DRC (Congo) = Africa

            Do you get this worked up about mining impact of Cobalt for all the laptops and cell phones since they use way more lithium and cobalt than EVs?

          4. “The bigger culprits are portable consumer electronics — like cell phones and laptop computers — which use around 72 percent of the cobalt that goes into lithium ion batteries, or roughly 30 percent of all cobalt mined.”

            “Rechargeable batteries (like lithium ion) make up about 42 percent of the market for cobalt, according to the Cobalt Development Institute.”

            “Of the 42 percent that is used for batteries, roughly one-quarter is used for electric vehicles.”

            “In other words, just over 10 percent of the world’s cobalt supply is currently being used for batteries to power electric cars.”

          5. just over 10 percent of the world’s cobalt supply is currently being used for batteries to power electric cars.”

            And EVs are only 1% of car sales. And it is inevitable that 100% of cars will be EVs. What % of the available Cobalt will that be?

  6. “The new price is up to 37.6% lower on a per square foot basis than a 131 sq ft studio at T-Plus, which the developer put on the market for HK$2.85 million last November.”

    $2.85 million

    Sometimes it is cheaper to quit the city job and just build a hut in the countryside.

  7. The irony is that the hut in the country was well built before Mao took over and may last another hundred years because Chinese used to build houses for many generations. The new housing will collapse within twenty years

    1. ‘Li Dexiang of Tsinghua University told the China Daily that “what we see nowadays is the blind demolition of relatively new buildings, some of which have only been standing for less than 10 years”.

      Eat your crowz dan.

    2. excellent article
      excerpt:
      “Buildings often look to me as if they were built in the 1950s, but in fact are built just 10 or 12 years ago,” says Austin Williams, echoing this sentiment. “The finishes are peeling, the metal is rusting, the rainwater pipes are leaking, the windows don’t close properly, the cement is flaking… But this is not due to 50 years of wear and tear. It’s due to inadequate specification, application, and maintenance.”

    1. Lolita Express Masseuse Reveals Lurid Details from Jeffrey Epstein’s Private Plane

      Inside Edition
      Published on Apr 27, 2015
      Chauntae Davis was the air hostess onboard the notorious private jet, Lolita Express, which was owned by billionaire Wall Street tycoon Jeffrey Epstein.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNPjvrqhalQ

    3. If I witness just one of these high level pedo pervs gets what he deserves, I will consider enough of my prayers answered for this lifetime. It was the same thing with Sandusky flying around on jets with politicians and CEOs and his “charity” for children. But they managed to protect his network and keep the charges on him limited. And Jimmy Saville with his own chambers in the wing for children in the hospital he donated money too. There’s always an escape hatch through which these sickos slither away mostly unscathed. It’s a terrible thing to see in the world. Really depressing.

      1. “If I witness just one of these high level pedo pervs gets what he deserves, I will consider enough of my prayers answered for this lifetime.”

        Good luck with your prayers.

        These “high level pedos” belong to a sort of private club and all the members (one of which you are not) look out for each other.

        This “getting what they deserve” concept is something that is delved out to and experienced by non-members of the club.

    5. Ben Jones you should expect that Youtube will start blocking this type of content soon.

      The Narrative about the Epstein story will be treated in the same manner of CNN reporting that “it’s illegal for you to read the Wikileaks emails, because only CNN can read them and script The Narrative about them for you.”

      And a final comment that would likely result in blocking or banning on Facebook and Twitter:

      Real Journalists are the institutional enablers of pedophiles.

  11. “A report from the Toronto Star in Canada. “The number of newer rental apartments in the GTA that are empty and ready for new tenants is at its highest level since a leading real-estate consulting firm started keeping track in 2015.”

    I had such high hopes for Canadian real-estate after the last Presidential Election too.

    ‘I really will’: the stars who didn’t move to Canada when Trump won
    Snoop Dogg and Lena Dunham were among a host of celebrities who pledged to move north under a Donald Trump presidency – yet stayed put

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/22/move-to-canada-celebrities-donald-trump

    1. pledged to move

      They’ve been believing he isn’t President and will be put in jail any day now.

    1. “Steve Pieczenik’s latest youtube video is informative.”

      I’m surprised he is still on youtube.

      What is the date and title of the video?

      1. All together Obama turned over $150 billion dollars to Iran, you can build a nuclear bomb with that much money and have plenty left over for a housing bubble in a country like Iran. Will someone please explain to me how turning over $150 billion dollars to radical mullahs is ever a good idea!

        1. One the other hand the U.S. seized Iranian banks accounts used for trading petrodollars and buying commodities.

  17. Some differences I have been seeing in the present RE bear vs the previous one in California. The last time, the Bay Area prices remained fairly stable esp the core Si Valley area. As we went farther, the price decreases were more pronounced. I think the prices in the Sacramento area went down about 40% from the 2005-06 peak.

    This time around, the Sac area is holding steady while the Bay Area prices are collapsing – down 8-10 percent already, and Zillow is saying there will be another 8-10 percent in the next 12-month period.

    I wonder if the price collapse goes outward from the Bay Area this time – compared to the opposite direction last time.

    1. “I wonder if the price collapse goes outward from the Bay Area this time – compared to the opposite direction last time.”

      Likely more a function of who are the lien holders. Some of these outfits collapse quickly when the profit margin is so narrow.

      1. Absolutely! What’s interesting is that all the surrounding areas all now seem to be plagued with the Ebola. The equity locusts that move outward have figured out that the additional 4-6 hours in stand still traffic commuting wasn’t worth it. Bay Area has plagued everything within hundreds of miles including Sacramento which some have claimed to be some sort of outlier area not affected by lower pricing / longer DOM. BS it’s all crater. Foreign money launderers went bye bye, speculators foreclosing, realtors going hungry and in search of pants without brown stains, all part of a bigger plan.

  19. ‘[Tenants] are moving out of old properties and moving into brand new places for cheaper,’ Ms Marr said.

    Like Ben said, you’re fooked when this happens 🙂

  20. What % of the available Cobalt will that be?

    Necessity is the mother of invention. As I posted elsewhere, Tesla has almost completely eliminated Cobalt from their batteries. Solid state batteries and new battery tech is changing rapidly.

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