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Things Are Down Because There’s No Sense Of Urgency, Everyone Is Waiting For A Better Deal

A report from the World Property Journal. “Seattle, Washington, D.C., Honolulu and San Jose–some of the most expensive real estate markets in the U.S.–are among the cities where luxury home prices have dropped the most. In Seattle, home prices for the top 5 percent of the market declined 14.4 percent to roughly $2.2 million in the second quarter, and in San Jose prices in the same category dipped 8.2 percent to $2.37 million.”

“‘Part of the reason prices for luxury homes in Seattle are dropping this year is because it experienced a bigger market boom in all price ranges (especially the high-end market) in the last six years than most other cities,’ said local Redfin agent Tamar Baber. ‘Now that the market has cooled down a bit, high-end buyers are scrutinizing their home purchases very carefully. Some of them feel the country could be headed toward a recession and aren’t willing to spend $2 million, $3 million or $4 million on a home right now unless it meets their exact specifications. Luxury sellers are slowly adjusting their pricing accordingly.'”

From NBC Bay Area in California. “Is the hot Bay Area housing market starting to cool? For example, a house in Mountain View was on the market for 70 days, and only after the list price was reduced did the owner get multiple offers. The sale is now pending. Real estate agents say that’s something that likely would not have happened last year.”

“Last year, a whopping 80% of homes sold by Redfin agents in San Jose had multiple offers, and this year, that number plummeted to just over 13 percent, Redfin found. The chief economist for Redfin said these new trends may help buyers. ‘If you’re looking to buy in the Bay Area, now is a good time because there is less competition than last year,’ Daryl Fairweather said. But she says its a short window of opportunity because the market is likely to heat up again, with bidding wars similar to last year.”

From 5280 in Colorado. “After years of red-hot real estate, Denver’s housing market has been slowly cooling off over the past year. And in July, that trend continued, with buyers gaining more power to negotiate the terms of their home purchases. ‘It seems like all of a sudden, we got a number of people to put their property on the market [in May and June] that had been hesitant to,’ says local realtor Jill Schafer. ‘That kind of broke the logjam because a lot of people weren’t listing their homes because they didn’t know where they’d be able to move to.'”

“The pool of new residential listings was down more than 12 percent from June, but still up more than 16 percent compared to this time last year. Schafer attributes this partly to an increase in new construction across the Front Range, but also to the number of active listings in May and June being at their highest point in five years.”

“While the market is still strong, Schafer points out that buyers appear to be shifting their interests to the city’s new developments. Builders have reported an increase in interest and foot traffic, and are often able to make more concessions and offer different incentives than existing home sellers, particularly those with older homes that haven’t undergone extensive renovation, Schafer says. ‘Some of the new projects that have come on line are filling up some of our needs,’ she adds, ‘but they are hurting some of our older inventory. New condos downtown might be selling like hotcakes, but the ones around it that are maybe 10 to 15 years old are kind of struggling.'”

From Loop North in Illinois. “Regardless of low interest rates, the home sales slump in June in Chicago and across Illinois was the worst so far this year. According to data from Illinois REALTORS, sales of existing homes in Illinois (16,579 units) declined 11.2 percent from June 2018. In the seven-county Chicago Metro Area, sales of existing homes (12,002 units) declined 11.6 percent. And in just the city of Chicago, sales of existing homes (2,766 units) declined 13.3 percent.”

“It also was the seventh consecutive year-over-year decline and the worst June since 2013.”

The Real Deal on Florida. “The first full week of August was a rough one for Miami condo sales. A total of 97 condos sold for $36 million in Miami-Dade County last week, a steep decline from 162 closings for $62 million the previous week.”

From Queens News on New York. “Apartment sales in the ‘World’s Borough’ fell 11.7 percent from 3,421 to 3,022 in the second quarter of 2019. Douglas Elliman also reported that the number of one- to three-family homes sold in Queens fell by 9.4 percent in 2019, on a year-over-year basis. Robert Glessman, Douglas Elliman’s executive manager of sales for Queens, argued that the drop is indicative of a much larger trend across the city. He pointed out that Brooklyn’s apartment sales also dipped by 4.5 percent over the past year.”

“‘As a whole, things are down, yes, and that’s because there’s no sense of urgency. Everyone is waiting for a better deal,” said Glessman, explaining the trend as a result of low interest rates. ‘People buy by emotion and urgency.'”

“As a result of the drop, the listing inventory rose 23.4 percent to 6,004 in the second quarter of 2019 compared with the same period last year, according to the report. ‘So we have more inventory on the market and sales are down. That tells me that more people are coming on the market,’ said Glessman. ‘They’re looking to play who’s looking to come down. And when numbers come down, sales will come up.'”

From Jersey Digs in New Jersey. “Offering the opportunity to own a quintessentially Cape May property, this grand home is located just one block from the beach and a few blocks from town which offers a variety of shops and restaurants. Originally listed in February, the price was cut 9.9% just a few weeks ago. The home, located at 815 Stockton Avenue, is asking $1,350,000.”

From Chicago Agent Magazine. “The housing economy, and especially the lending industry, is no stranger to this feast-or-famine dynamic. Now many are wondering how long the sudden boom will last, or if it will pick up enough steam to drive home sales out of a slump. ‘Low rates are always welcome, but right now [low] rates are occurring for the wrong reasons,’ Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, told the Wall Street Journal.”

“Yun’s and other experts concern is that the negative outlook for businesses, which is driving rates lower, will eventually spread to consumers. ‘Every day in the last week or 10 days there’s been more bad economic news,’ one mortgage lender was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. ‘How many other shoes are going to drop to push rates down?’

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This Post Has 157 Comments

  1. ‘Builders have reported an increase in interest and foot traffic, and are often able to make more concessions and offer different incentives than existing home sellers, particularly those with older homes that haven’t undergone extensive renovation…’they are hurting some of our older inventory…the ones around it that are maybe 10 to 15 years old are kind of struggling’

    When the new stuff starts to hammer the existing market you can stick a fork in it. They will build until the foreclosures swamp the market.

    ‘It seems like all of a sudden, we got a number of people to put their property on the market [in May and June] that had been hesitant to…That kind of broke the logjam because a lot of people weren’t listing their homes because they didn’t know where they’d be able to move to’

    Yeah, Jill they suddenly know where they are going to! You guys milked that lame excuse for years. It just might be these greedy bashtards were trying to hit the peak – AND FAILED! You know what people are when they are timing the market with their shacks Jill? Speculators. Thousands upon thousands of them.

    1. “thousands upon thousands of them.”

      Geez Mr. Ben, that’s con$ervative.

      “Million$ upon million$ of them.” The

      (Helps explain the $helter.$hack MANIA progre$$)

    2. Denver = CRATER.

      People have stopped moving here. People are leaving, or making plans to leave soon…

        1. Plan on 200k just to live in my ex’s trailer park. What kind of a position? Just curious because I worked in (tech) storage there for a long time.

  2. ‘Daryl Fairweather…says its a short window of opportunity because the market is likely to heat up again, with bidding wars similar to last year’

    There ya go Gary, get out there and buy as many shacks as you can possibly borrow for! Hurry!! Sell the 401k, cash-out refinance the car, pawn your jewelry, start writing those love letters and MAKE IT SINCERE dammit!

      2. “One factor could be homeowners tapping into home equity for cash when they refinance.”

        😁

        Dumb ’em down, and profit.

        1. No dollar will be allowed to escape.

          No Child Left Behind during the formative years leads to No Dollar Left Behind later on when adulthood raises its ugly head.

          Again, dumb ’em down, and profit.

      4. We are definitely seeing an increase in cash out refis, interestingly, investors seem to be cashing out more than owner occupied homes.

        Note: very small sample sizes

      5. “One factor could be homeowners tapping into home equity for cash when they refinance”

        In SE Region IV the boob jobs and the stuff (boats, pools, new cars etc.) seem to be missing much more than Bubble 1.

        Could just be paying da mortgage, to the best of my knowledge they didn’t offer those Neg Am and Interest Only Loans this time around.

    2. The chief economist for Redfin said these new trends may help buyers. ‘If you’re looking to buy in the Bay Area, now is a good time because there is less competition than last year,’ Daryl Fairweather said. But she says its a short window of opportunity because the market is likely to heat up again, with bidding wars similar to last year.”

      GARY, NOW IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY!!!! REALLY!!!

      1. Not so fast, Zillow is forecasting that prices will be 10% lower next year. So on a house around here (SJ area) that works out to about 20k a month of depreciation. Rent, almost any rent looks cheap compared to that.

  3. Denver might finally be running out of greater fools. Starting to see gutted and partly demoed houses for sale for less than what they were bought for a year or two ago. $1m+ houses bought a year ago and listed for a small loss. Foreclosures actually going to auction instead of being bought by speculators preforeclosure.

    1. Boots in my nabe

      Not much inventory, but almost all of it had a price drop. In my zip code, it’s abundantly obvious that no one wants to pay $400+ K for a three-bedroom house, even if it was renovated to the nines. Even if there was a fourth dicey bedroom carved out of a refinished basement.

  5. The “bidding wars on houses” leitmotif is really starting to get stale and annoying (not you, Ben, the media).

    1. Yeah, the Mountain View shack owner had to lower his price to get – a bidding war! Success as California UHS see it. All together now, slash those prices and bidding wars will soar!

    2. “The “bidding wars on houses” leitmotif ” ( likethatword!)

      Help is on the way Chino! … (Go $cenario #2!)

      As noted on the chart below, this suggests the bubble bur$t will likely run from 2019-2025 , give or take a few quarters.

      The question is: what’s the likely magnitude of the decline? Scenario 1 (blue line) is a symmetrical repeat of Housing Bubble #2: a retrace of the majority of the bubble’s rise but not 100%, which reverses off this somewhat higher base to start Housing Bubble #3.

      Since the main$tream con$en$us denies the possibility that Housing Bubble #2 even exists (perish the thought that real e$tate price$ could ever–ga$p–drop), they most certainly deny the possibility that prices could retrace much of the gains since 2012.

      More realistic analysts would probably agree that if the current slowdown (never say rece$$ion , it might cost you your job) gathers momentum, some decline in housing prices is possible. They would likely agree with Scenario 1 that any such decline would be modest and would simply set the stage for an even grander housing bubble #3.

      But there is a good case for $cenario 2, in which price plummet$ below the 2012 lows and keeps on going , ultimately retracing the entire housing bubble gain$ from 2003.

      Why is $cenario 2 not just possible but likely? There are no more “$aves” in the Fed’$ locker. Dropping interest rates to zero and buying another trillion in MB$ won’t have the same positive effects they had in 2009-2018. Those policie$ have run their course.

      https://oftwominds.cloudhostedresources.com/?ref=http%3A%2F%2Fhousingbubble.blog%2F%3Fp%3D2205&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oftwominds.com%2Fblogfeb19%2Fhousing-bubble2-19.html&width=1280

      1. “…Scenario 1 that any such decline would be modest and would simply set the stage for an even grander housing bubble #3….”

        This is what I’d put my money on. The Fed and the pols have gone all-in on housing prices and will do everything in their power – EVERYTHING – to keep them high. If it means a wall of liquidity bigger than any before, they’ll do it. If it means offering financial rewards for Wall St. if they buy up SFRs, they’ll do it. They will do anything.

        1. Agree. Automatic green card for anyone who buys a house. Negative interest rate cash back no doc 100 year mortgages. Universal basic income equal to mortgage payments for any first time home buyer. 10 quadrillion dollar bailout of the GSEs and major banks. The asset inflation program will continue until the last of the worst most insane policies has been implemented.

          2. They will destroy this entire country

            The people who use the services of the big “Them” to buy what they cannot afford are equally guilty. Without these debt donkeys, there could be no housing bubble.

          3. “The people who use the services of the big “Them” to buy what they cannot afford are equally guilty.”

            Guilty, yes, but I wouldn’t say “equally guilty.” It’s like the old saying goes – “don’t hate the player, hate the game.”

            I have a hard time faulting people who are just trying to put a roof over their families’ heads. Sure, they’re not making the greatest financial decisions, but they need shelter. When the choice is between hyperinflated rent or hyperinflated purchase prices, they are between a rock and a hard place.

            Rents around here on an average 3 bedroom were roughly $1,000-$1,500 pre-bubble, the latter being for a nice place in a nice neighborhood. Now they are $1,750-$2,800. It’s hard to even understand how this is possible, given that wages don’t even begin to support those prices.

          4. I have a hard time faulting people who are just trying to put a roof over their families’ heads.
            Or move endlessly, as each “investor” sells the property out from under you.

          5. All the above is plausible, given the previous insanity of monetary policy. A recession now seems inevitable, even with the “insurance cut,” “mid course adjustment cut,” “bullsh*t, bullsh*t, bullsh*t cut.”
            Once unemployment hits even a modest 6%, who is going to want to sign up for a 30 year commitment. Those without jobs won’t and those with jobs will be scared to make such a long term investment.
            When ZIRP/NIRP isn’t enough to juice the economy, MMT will get trotted out. I think Trump will demand it. If the Democrats are in, they’ll say its for justice.
            In my mind, MMT is a foregone conclusion, it’s jut the form that it comes in.

    2. “He said that criminalizing sex with teenage girls was a cultural aberration and that at times in history it was perfectly acceptable.”

      When my wife and I were in Italy at a resort on Lake Garda we saw a couple of workers lowering a beautiful boat similar to an old wooden Chris-Craft, polished brass and shiny treated wood, into the lake’s calm waters. They started the engine and let it idle. A couple of minutes later an old white-haired guy, rotund like Porky Pig with a vivacious young woman on his arm climbed into the boat, and they set off alone. Nobody around us on the patio deck said a word. Money talks!

  7. Housing bubbles are tied to globalism so yes while Globalists dominant the political arena bubbles will be maintained. We saw that during the Democrats debates where both globalism and schemes which hold up housing prices were made and defended. Electing Trump and Brexit are critical to defeating globalism and the use of houses not as shelter but as collateral to back a debt bubble.

    1. No individual is critical to freedom and the preservation of the republic. Only the ideas that foster it are critical. Trump is a just another flawed human being like the rest of us.

      1. I do agree John but when it comes to elections it is a binary choice. I would have loved to have a candidate who had Trump’s positions without the character flaws. However I did not vote for a mainstream candidate for almost 25 years before I voted for Trump. After awhile a protest vote does not cut it.

        1. before I voted for Trump. After awhile a protest vote does not cut it ??

          Your vote for Trump did not matter…

          Party Candidate Votes
          Democratic Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine 385,234
          Republican Donald Trump and Mike Pence 319,667

          1. Your vote for Trump did not matter…

            What a peculiar and unAmerican thing to say. Is this a glimpse at the upcoming Dem strategy to discourage people from voting?? Is it lingering butt hurt over how the Electoral College system we have works? What the **** is a Party Candidate Vote?

          2. ‘unAmerican thing to say’

            You know, the goal posts keep getting moved, but such a comment might mean you are a white supremacist. I’m not sure. Let’s ask that foul-mouthed hot-head Fredo.

          4. Uh.oh … From $eattle to $an Diego left.coa$t blue.citizen$ flea to low.cost Mid.American local$ … transferring their voter registration$!

            Texas’ biggest metro areas may tip America’s balance of power in the years ahead

            Analysis by Ronald Brownstein, CNN

            The stakes in the struggle for Texas’ big metro areas are rising because they are growing so fast. While the four major metro areas cast about 60% of the statewide votes in the 1996 presidential election, that rose to about 69% in 2016 and 2018, Murray and Cross found. Murray expects the number to cross 70% in 2020.

            And the concentration of Texas’ population into its biggest metropolitan areas shows no signs of slackening. The Texas Demographic Center, the official state demographer, projects that 70% of the state’s population growth through 2050 will settle in just 10 large metropolitan counties. Those include the big five urban centers that O’Rourke carried as well as five adjacent suburban counties; those adjacent counties still leaned toward the GOP in 2018 but by a much smaller cumulative margin than in the past. Overall, O’Rourke won the 10 counties expected to account for the preponderance of the state’s future growth by a combined nearly 700,000 votes.

            This urbanization is unfolding together with growing diversification. From 2010 through 2018, the US Census Bureau found, non-Hispanic whites accounted for only 14% of Texas’ population growth; Asian-American growth roughly equaled whites’, African Americans slightly exceeded both and Hispanics dwarfed all three — they accounted for over 55% of Texas’ population growth in that period.

            But the party’s improving position in Texas’ thriving metropolitan areas is creating the opportunity for it to seriously contest as many as five or six more seats in the US House, possibly recapture enough seats to regain a majority in the state House of Representatives and mount highly competitive races both against Trump and Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is seeking reelection next year.
            Republicans keenly recognize the risk they will face if the Democrats can consolidate or even expand their recent beachheads in the state’s metropolitan areas, particularly because those areas are projected to cast an ever-increasing share of the state’s vote.

          7. Knot CNN, red.$tate.gubermint.workers:

            The Texas Demographic Center, the official state demographer, projects that 70% of the state’s population growth through 2050 will settle in just 10 large metropolitan counties.

            From 2010 through 2018, the US Census Bureau found, non-Hispanic whites accounted for only 14% of Texas’ population growth; Asian-American growth roughly equaled whites’, African Americans slightly exceeded both and Hispanics dwarfed all three — they accounted for over 55% of Texas’ population growth in that period.

            $ad!

        2. I wouldn’t say Trump’s character flaws are any worse than my own. In that kind of a position, the smallest peccadillo of a person gets magnified a thousand times.

          1. ‘In that kind of a position, the smallest peccadillo of a person gets magnified a thousand times’

            Like that racist Nancy Pelosi?

          3. “I wouldn’t say Trump’s character flaws are any worse than my own”

            Can you provide @ least x22 women that can independently attest to that assertion John?

        1. Yeah, Andrew Johnson = / same results as: A. Lincoln

          No, but, if they had believed in the same ideas, the result would have been the same.

          1. “No, but, if they had believed in the same ideas, the result would have been the same.” ( which they did knot incidentally )

            How do you know that for certain?

          2. My point was that it is the ideas that are important not the people. If you believe that it’s the people and not the ideas we need to be loyal to, of course, that is your prerogative.

        2. “The people” are important John … do you think this guy could lead his troops across the Delware to beat.back the “Red.Coats”?

          https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/theoffice/images/2/2f/Dwight-schrute-quotes.jpg/revision/latest%3Fcb%3D20140726050547&imgrefurl=https://www.youthareawesome.com/dwight-schrute-appreciation/&h=1080&w=1920&tbnid=ldqbw4ZgLzimQM&tbnh=168&tbnw=300&usg=K_aA7bQzEoyW43NCr0F66PkBEKFGg=&docid=OGk2LslRD0PJVM

      1. Prefer$ multi.per$on.$helter.$hack$ u$ing other folk$ monie$:

        Trump Jr tout$ ‘dream’ Indone$ia project$, denies any conflict$

        Reuters | Cindy Silviana

        The visit comes amid rising trade tensions between the countries, with Indonesian officials worried about potential U.S. tariff$ being applied as the Southeast Asian nation had an $8.3 billion trade surplus in 2018.

      2. I think not, he wants an interest rate cut, he is trying to keep the bubble going till 2020, or maybe forever. I think he is a big debtor in his private life

  8. ‘That kind of broke the logjam because a lot of people weren’t listing their homes because they didn’t know where they’d be able to move to.’”

    There’s an alternative explanation, Jill. A lot of speculators who overpaid are now starting to panic as they belatedly realize there’s a lot more downside risk than upside potential.

  10. ‘So we have more inventory on the market and sales are down. That tells me that more people are coming on the market,’ said Glessman. ‘They’re looking to play who’s looking to come down.

    It tells me we’re in the incipient phase of a bursting housing bubble. Sellers are realizing the top has already come and gone, and now there’s a giant air pocket forming under their shacks. Next up: surging inventory and plummeting prices as speculators and FBs panic and head for the exits, while sales fall off a cliff as buyers decline to catch a falling knife.

  11. Slightly off topic
    A friend who works in the REO DEPARTMENT of a TBTF bank told me that REOS are down and falling.
    Speculating why my best guesses might be:
    Foreclosures can take 2-3 years to become REO so foreclosures from 2-3 years ago were few and finally hitting his area, and 2) banks might be working hard to get the properties off the book either due to positive gains on the sale of said properties or due to regulatory pressures.

    1. Or they waited for the peak and now they’re dumping them as fast as they can before they start losing money on them again?

  12. Yun is now saying it’s the “news” how about the reality. He is also apparently suggesting that low rates are not having his previously prescribed effect because the rates are low for the wrong reason. Covering his tail?

    Check out CNBC today where Olick has and article about reduced activity despite lower rates. Truth gets reported when it no longer cant. However she does retreat to her builders arent building enough, thesis.

    Cant speak for nationwide, but I can speak for my area where the majority of groundbreakings for builders occurs after the property goes under sales contract. Reduced construction is a result lowered sales, not a cause. Diana should speak to some large builders before putting out such conclusions. Locally, builders will put a few inventory houses up but not many.

  13. The end conclusion of this data is that the trend we have been predicting here has not only begun, but is accelerating. Imagine 6 months or 1 years from now what we will be hearing.

  15. Yes, use the proceeds from a life insurance policy to pay the mortgage. But if Mr. Banker was made whole why do you care about collateral damage. It is not like you, are you feeling ill? Did aliens engage in a Dody snatching?

  17. Would you have a geographic breakdown, this go around SALT limitations have lead to very different market conditions. I can see banks dumping high end properties quickly?

  18. It looks like this “investor” ran out of money: https://www.utahrealestate.com/1623255

    Wow, a whole $375,000 for a dirty completely unfinished house in an OK neighborhood very close to a busy street that connects with the freeway system.

    My favorite picture is of the kitchen with dirty dishes in the sink.

    Best part of the description: “Remodeled comp’s range from $399k-$525k. Great opportunity to pickup a great home to either fix up and live in or sell and make a great profit.”

    This could all be yours for a $75,000 downpayment and $1,609 per month for 30 years. What a steal!

    1. Amazing I know that neighborhood, ten years ago if you told me that a house like that there would even be put on the market for that price I would say that is insane. I am even adjusting for inflation. The bubble is large in Utah, the wages do not support it. Are the Realtors using the force to get weak minded people to buy? Of course Realtors cannot be Jedi so they must be working for the Sith Lord, Mr Banker.

      1. That is close to where my sister and her husband just sold their place (Sugarhouse). They bought 3 years ago for $320k and sold for $560k with about $80k-$100k in renovations and sweat equity.

      2. A national lender keeps emailing me to let me know I can actually pay less than 3% down now. What a deal!

        Local wages definitely don’t support these prices. SL Tribune or KSL a few months back had a piece about how most current owners couldn’t afford mortgage payments if they needed to buy now.

        I’m curious how much the current owner paid for this mess of a house! I looked online but of course this 1920s house has zero price history before August 2019…

      3. @OneAgainstMany:

        There are some really nice areas farther east in Sugarhouse. Great place to walk or jog.

        1. Yes, I love the new stuff going up by Sugarhouse. As I mentioned, I am part of the ownership group and we have class A in Salt Lake County (city to remain anonymous, but cloese to Sugar house).

          Regarding wages and prices, my most recent tenants were very well-to-do with great paying jobs. They are usually Indian/Pakistani/south east Asian programmers. Lots of Chinese taking medical/IT/finance jobs.

          1. Many of the locals of the predominant religion don’t have the skills to compete with those moving to the Salt Lake area. They still want to have mom stay at home and raise 4 children and hubby be a sole provider. But the dual income wage earners who are highly educated can afford these prices. I know, because I see every lease application and salaries that are coming through. There is of course a huge affordability gap.

          2. OneAgainstMany,
            Do you think that a SAHM with 4 kids will become a thing of the past in SLC within a generation in large part due to this trend ( a semi repeat of the 1970s it sound like)?

          3. Do you think that a SAHM with 4 kids will become a thing of the past in SLC within a generation in large part due to this trend ( a semi repeat of the 1970s it sound like)?

            It’s already happening. The US birthrate is at an all-time-low. The causes of this are multifaceted: birth control, women getting advanced degrees and having more options, student debt, high housing costs/child care costs, etc. delaying markers of adulthood, etc.

            There are only a few states that have population increases above the replacement rate and they have a huge Mormon/Evangelical Christian or lots of immigrants (legal and illegal) who still have above average # of children (at least 1st generation, subsequent generations assimilate). There is a huge disparity too in the birthrate in rural vs. urban. Utah follows the national trend of birthrates going down, even among the devout. Family size is still about1 or 2 children above the US national trend line, but it is pretty much going the same direction. The closer one gets to Salt Lake City, the more this is true. Out in the rural ares (like southern Utah where my home base is), the stay-at-home-mom thing is still in full swing. This is largely due to low levels of advanced education and strong difference in culture (guns, trucks, boats, blue-collar workers, rodeos, etc.).

          4. They still want to have mom stay at home and raise 4 children and hubby be a sole provider. But the dual income wage earners who are highly educated can afford these prices.

            So nobody should be shocked when they vote for anyone willing to slow or stop the H1B train in an attempt to get the pendulum to swing back their direction. Nobody likes the cramdown.

    2. If the comps are so wonderful and this is such a great price, then why did the seller give up on the remodel? Credit is so cheap they could have easily borrowed enough to finish it.

      And if those are the comps, the starting price is too high. That house needs at least $70K more. It’s got some framing but no kitchen or baths. No pix of the yard. And $375K for 2 bedrooms? In *ahem* big-family SLC? Oh come on.

  19. I see a lot of “plateau” talk in the media; as in “we’ve reached a plateau and it’s permanent high.” Looking back at charts of HB1, both national and local, it looks like there was a bit of a plateau from ’05 to ’07. With the benefit of hindsight we now know that “plateau” was just price deceleration, stagnation, and then free fall. That plateau was just the smooth round top of a bubble. I have a feeling this one is as well.

    1. It always looks like a plateau when velocity nears zero. You have to focus on acceleration, which you can feel but is hard to see.

    1. “Chri$ Cuomo” … Hey Jeff, what da ya figure$ chri$sy’$ hourly pay.rate is?

      Who do ya reckon$ has the better lieyer$ … Ya, $wing away dude!

      1. “Chri$ Cuomo”

        You mean Roid Rage Cuomo?

        Facts And Myths About ‘Roid Rage

        Wadler is a clinical associate professor of medicine at New York University’s medical school. He is also a spokesman for the American College of Sports Medicine, a member of the World Anti-Doping Agency, and the author of the textbook, Drugs and the Athlete.

        What is ‘roid rage?

        ‘Roid rage, in many ways, I would characterize as a form of loss of impulse control. It provokes overreactions via a stimulus that normally doesn’t produce such a severe reaction.

        So say somebody says something to you that you don’t like. You may put your fist through a wall. The impulse is there; it’s overreaction. Forget the ‘roid, for the moment. It’s a rage … and that rage is precipitated by the brain being exposed to anabolic steroids.

        https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facts-and-myths-about-roid-rage/

        1. “Threatens”

          Punches have consequences …

          “What is ‘roid rage?”

          Ask Thee fellow who killed a woman protester in Charlottesville.

          1. Trump campaign sells ‘Fredo Unhinged’ T-shirts following viral Cuomo video

            By Gerren Keith Gaynor

    1. “$1,3500,000 in Boise?”

      Eye got$ ya $25,000 Di$count! & an “out.door” pizza oven!

      Mortgage amount: $1,325,000
      $ Interest rate (%) 11.25
      Period (years) 30

      Total cost of mortgage: $4,632,917.86
      Monthly payments: $12,869

      1. Yer knot thinkin’ of poi$on ID / Boi$e is you?

        OK, eye fudged on the inter.re$t.line … ( ever.hopefull.for tomorrow!)

  30. Eye think Mr. Ben ($adly) is $tealth “alex.jones” editing me.$elf … eye’$ made this post & got moderated:

    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    “I wouldn’t say Trump’s character flaws are any worse than my own”

    Can you provide @ least x22 women that can independently attest to that assertion John?

    Knot x1 $ sign … $ad

    1. Your comment is awaiting moderation.

      I always get this when I link to something but less often when I don’t. It’s not just you.

  31. Eye would like to think that eye’m havin’ the ability to engage in a “free” discu$$ with all Thee fine folks here on the HB.B ll, but eye’m a fearin’ that’s knot po$$ible?

  33. Another day, another round of Eurozone gloom…

    Europe stocks trade lower as German economy contracts
    By Steve Goldstein
    Published: Aug 14, 2019 3:44 a.m. ET

    Europe stocks traded lower in early action on Wednesday after data showing the Continent’s largest economy contracted.

    After halting a two-day losing run on Tuesday, the Stoxx Europe 600 (SXXP, -0.27%) dropped 0.16% to 371.82, with banks including Deutsche Bank (DBK, -2.32%) and Banco Comerical Portugues (BCP, -2.47%) lower.

    The U.K. FTSE 100 (UKX, -0.06%) dropped 0.01% to 7249.92, the German DAX (DAX, -0.42%) dropped 0.25% to 11720.91and the French CAC 40 (PX1, -0.43%) declined 0.23% to 5350.82.
    …

    1. “Another day, another round of Eurozone gloom…”

      =

      UN.$ynchronized …decoupling$

      Where you expecting otherwi$e?

  34. Would you loan money to Uncle Sam at negative yields?

    Ex-Fed boss Greenspan says ‘there is no barrier’ to Treasury yields falling below zero
    By Mark DeCambre
    Published: Aug 13, 2019 4:38 p.m. ET

    There is some $15 trillion in government debt that now yields less than zero, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes there’s no reason why U.S. government bond yields couldn’t join much of the developed world in the subzero world.

    Greenspan, during a phone interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday, said “zero” has no real meaning for the U.S. bond market and that a slide below that psychological level, already traversed by many others countries, wouldn’t be inconceivable for U.S. paper.

    The 93-year-old economist’s comments come as more Wall Street participants contemplate the very real possibility of negative Treasury rates.
    …

    2. There is a real barrier at around -2%. Once you get under that it becomes profitable for the UBER WEALTHY PEOPLE THAT MATTER to take mass quantities of greenbacks out of the bank and physically guard them.

    1. If sovereign debt interest rates started rising it would be game-over for housing as the investors would disappear!

      1. How to turn off Google’s location tracking

        -Head to settings.
        -Tap on Google then Google Account.
        -Tap on the data & personalisation tab and then on web & app Activity.
        -Toggle Web & App Activity off.

        3. The Google Map app uses location tracking to enable the traffic data layer, which is very handy.

          FWIW, a better way to hide your tracks is to use an app to spoof your location. Make ’em work!

    1. I might consider buying a place after the crater, if negative interest mortgages are still available. I like the idea of bankers paying me to rent their money.

      1. “I like the idea of bankers paying me to rent their money.”

        What you are in dire need of is a proper education about reality. Come visit me at my bank and I will give you one.

    2. “In reality, …”

      Don’t you guys just hate that reality thingy?

      “… the mortgage borrower in Denmark is likely to end up paying back a little more than they borrowed, as there are still fees and charges to pay to compensate the bank for arranging the deal, even when the nominal rate is negative.”

      Fees and charges to pay to compensate the bank for arranging the deal.

      😁

    1. Dow tumbles more than 300 points on weak Chinese, German economic data, U.S. yield-curve inversion
      By Chris Matthews
      Published: Aug 14, 2019 9:41 a.m. ET
      Chinese industrial production, German GDP weigh on markets
      Getty Images
      Chinese retail sales growth slowed in July

      U.S. stocks fell sharply at the start of trade Wednesday, following a series of worrying data on global economic growth, and after the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell below that of the 2-year note, marking an inversion of the main measure of the yield curve and flashing a recession warning signal.
      …

      1. Markets
        The inverted yield curve explained and what it means for your money
        Published 3 hours ago
        Updated Moments Ago
        Al Lewis
        Key Points
        – An inverted yield curve means interest rates have flipped on U.S. Treasurys with short-term bonds paying more than long-term bonds.
        – It’s generally regarded as a warning signs for the economy and the markets.
        – A recession, if it comes at all, usually appears many months after a yield curve inversion.

        If you’ve been gleaning financial headlines, you may be asking, what is this “inversion of the yield curve” thing and why is it so scary?

        An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones. When they flip, or invert, it’s widely regarded as a bad sign for the economy.

        Getting more interest for a short-term than a long-term investment appears to make zero economic sense.
        …

        1. I have seen a lot of people get the causation wrong on the curve inversions. Inversions don’t CAUSE recessions. Neither can the fed directly control them. Inversions happen when a LOT of professional investors think a recession is about to occur. Bond prices basically reflect the median expectation about the strength of the economy at various points in the future. The power of the signal comes from the wisdom of crowds, law of large numbers, etc. It also doesn’t really matter if the 10/2 inverts by a tiny bit or almost inverts but does not. It’s not a binary indicator, but the media makes it sound like one to simplify things. The story is the same regardless: lots of people that do this for a living think the ship is about to go down.

          1. Inversions happen when a LOT of professional investors think a recession is about to occur.

            Also worth noting, inversions happen because investors see very few attractive places to invest. This could be because of insufficient demand, bad overall economic climate (e.g. high debt load, onerous regulation, corruption, weak institutions/rule of law, etc.), or overly inflated prices on assets and input factors (e.g. the “everything bubble”).

          2. I agree the inversion is not causation, but I don’t think it has as much to do with growth expectations as much as the expectation that interest rates are effectively going to be permanently low even if we have modest growth. I don’t recall that ever really being the expectation in the past, which is why this inversion is different than prior inversions.

          3. I don’t recall that ever really being the expectation in the past, which is why this inversion is different than prior inversions.

            One open question in my mind regarding “this time it’s different” is how much the Fed’s purchasing of treasuries impacts the inversion.

      2. “Dow.n tumble$”
        =
        Keep yer eye$ on the “Dow.n the Up$ $staircase” ever bouncing Zectron $uper.ball!

        1. It’s like when the Grim appears in Harry Potter. Bad times ahead. And denial is quickly giving way to dumping shares as fast as possible.

          The U.S. Treasury 2-10 year yield curve inverted and that means stocks are on ‘borrowed time,’ says BAML
          By Sunny Oh
          Published: Aug 14, 2019 6:58 a.m. ET
          The 2-year/10-year spread turns negative

          The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield (TMUBMUSD02Y, -5.34%) traded above the 10-year note yield (TMUBMUSD10Y, -6.50%) for the first time in over a decade early Wednesday, reinforcing recession worries.

          The flattening of the main measure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve already spelled trouble for stock-market investors that have been on the back foot from escalating geopolitical concerns and simmering trade tensions, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a Tuesday note ahead of the inversion.

          The inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, or a negative spread between short-term and long-term yields, means a recession indicator is flashing red.

          “The equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts,” the BAML strategists wrote.

          The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was down 5.7 basis points at 1.619%, according to FactSet, while the 2-year yield was off 4.1 basis points at 1.628%.

          An inverted yield curve often serves as a prelude to a recession because it indicates when monetary policy and financial conditions are too tight for the broader economy. A yield curve inversion along the 2-year/10-year spread has come before the last seven recessions.

          Still, the widely varying lag times between an inversion and an economic downturn makes it difficult to say if an inverted curve points to an imminent slowdown in growth.

          Other yield curve measures have already inverted this year. Since May, the 3-month/10-year spread measure utilized by the New York Federal Reserve to analyze recession probabilities has been mostly stuck in negative territory.

          But investors had previously pointed to the lack of an inversion on the 2-year/10-year spread as a sign that the bond-market was not pointing to a shuddering halt to economic growth. Rather, it suggested hopes that the Federal Reserve would secure a soft-landing for a U.S. economy through “insurance” interest rate cuts.

          The renewed flattening of the curve could thus indicate that economic pessimism is gaining ground among bond traders, and that the Fed’s July rate cuts will prove the first of many as part of a full-blown monetary easing cycle.

          Even if the 2-year/10-year spread inverts, equities do still have room to run higher — if only for a few months.

          “After an initial post-inversion dip, the S&P 500 index can rally meaningfully prior to a bigger US recession related drawdown,” BAML strategists said.
          …

          1. “And denial is quickly giving way to dumping shares as fast as possible.”

            Dumping, “$ome” $hares …

            $elective di$crimination has it$ value$:

            Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B
            NYSE: BRK.B

    2. It’s to bad that people are not just rejecting the high prices of real estate. It doesn’t matter if your getting a low interest rate , the darn shack isn’t worth these high prices.

      1. “It’s to bad that people are not just rejecting the high prices of real estate.”

        Wrong! It’s WONDERFUL that people are not just rejecting the high prices of real estate.

        Think of all the equity wealth that magically gets created for all the comps.

    3. Markets
      Wall Street bets of a 50-basis point Fed cut jump as yield curve inverts stocks sink
      By Mark DeCambre
      Published: Aug 14, 2019 10:34 a.m. ET

      Wall Street is pricing in a more than 16% chance of a half-point reduction in key interest rates on Wednesday as the main yield curve between 2-year Treasury (TMUBMUSD02Y, -5.59%) and 10-year Treasury notes (TMUBMUSD10Y, -6.30%) inverted early in the session. Although the current expectations for a 50-basis-point cut aren’t high statistically they do represent a big jump from a day ago when expectations for a half-point cut were at 3.8% based on federal-funds rates, according to CME Group data. The flattening and inverted yield curve has been an accurate predictor of economic recessions. A yield curve inversion along the 2-year and 10-year spread has come before the last seven recessions.
      …

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