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Ample Liquidity Is Potentially Covering A Multitude Of Sins

A report from the Globe and Mail in Canada. “Vancouver has come in dead last in the latest global ranking of luxury real estate by consultants Knight Frank. Vancouver luxury prices slipped 13.6 per cent in the quarter from a year earlier. At the bottom, just above Vancouver, were Istanbul, where prices slipped 9.9 per cent, Auckland, down 7.5 per cent, Nairobi, down 6.7 per cent, and Dubai, down 6 per cent.”

From This Is Money in the UK. “Some of the best discounts buyers can get in the London market are on new-build flats, where developers are trying to shift an oversupply of higher priced properties. Richard Donnell, research and insight director at Zoopla, added that the cooler London property market is starting to filter out and those in the commuter belt also need to be realistic on pricing to get properties sold.”

“‘Southern parts of the UK are clearly feeling the impact of London’s weaker growth rippling out, leading to annual house price falls in the South West and South East,’ said Mr Donnell. ‘This has been driven by an imbalance between supply and demand, as growth in supply is running ahead of transaction levels.'”

“Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance, put the 4.3 per cent price drop down to less interest from buy-to-let landlords and first-time buyers. He added, ‘Until stamp duty is addressed, making it more attractive for these people to buy, we are likely to see a glut of these properties unsold, with values suffering further.’

From Korea JoongAng Daily. “Panic is setting in after the government said it would be capping prices on some real estate projects. ‘If we knew that the government was going to regulate preconstruction sale prices, we would’ve canceled the project,’ said Chung Geum-shik, head of a union of workers reconstructing an apartment complex in Dongdaemun in eastern Seoul. ‘A major loss is inevitable since we can’t just stop.'”

The Bangkok Post in Thailand. “The Greater Bangkok housing market fell by 13% in the first half after the Bank of Thailand’s new loan-to-value (LTV) limits took effect on April 1, according to SET-listed developer Pruksa Holding (PSH). The total market value in the first six months was down to 201 billion baht from 232 billion in the same period last year. All housing categories dropped, with condos seeing the largest decline.”

“Deputy group chief executive Supattra Paopiamsap pointed to a raft of negative factors in the second quarter, including the global economic slump, the country’s sluggish tourism, the stronger baht, drought, high household debt and the new lending curbs. ‘The new government should use measures to stimulate the property market, which can help boost the economy,’ she said. ‘Without property incentives, small developers or those without strong financial backup will be gone.'”

From Domain News in Australia. “The July rental vacancy results spell bad news for landlords across Sydney, as rental days on market rise and added stock places downward pressure on rents. The number of rental properties sitting vacant jumped again in July, with the city-wide vacancy rate now the second highest of all the capital cities. In fact, the number of vacant rentals across the city has increased by more than 5000 over the year and is now sitting at an estimated 20,000.”

“This added supply spells bad news for investors as it impacts both the time it takes to find a tenant as well as what they can charge. On the flip side, renters may find they have more properties to choose from, and more bargaining power around rents.”

From Interest New Zealand. “Around the country nine out of 16 regions recorded higher sales than in July last year. However, while sales numbers were stronger, price signals were mixed. Within the Auckland region median prices were down significantly compared to June in the central suburbs where it fell from $990,000 to $860,000 (-13.1%), with substantial falls also occurring in Franklin -6.6%, and Waitakere -2%.”

From the Wall Street Journal. “Commercial-property prices in major cities around the world tumbled in the second quarter, amid signs of slower global growth and heightened trade tension between China and the U.S. Average property prices fell in the second quarter from the first quarter in Hong Kong and Seoul to London and Washington, D.C., according to data from Real Capital Analytics.”

“Paris commercial real-estate prices declined the most among the markets that Real Capital Analytics tracks in Europe, tumbling 2.6% for the quarter. Prices in Central Chicago fell 2.1%, making it the worst performer among U.S. cities. In Australia, where the economic growth has slowed sharply since mid-2018, property prices were down more than 2% in Melbourne and Central Sydney.”

“The quarter marked the first time in years that property prices in so many of the world’s major cities were weaker than the previous quarter. Prices for hotels, office buildings, malls and other commercial property in these metro areas enjoyed a big run-up in recent years, but an increasingly murky economic outlook is weighing on sentiment.”

“Some real-estate executives suggest that the low interest-rate backdrop had kept prices edging higher, and that investors are only now starting to focus on deteriorating economic fundamentals. ‘I think ample liquidity is potentially covering a multitude of sins,’ said Brian Ward, chief executive officer of Trimont Real Estate Advisors.”

This Post Has 61 Comments
  1. ‘Some of the best discounts buyers can get in the London market are on new-build flats, where developers are trying to shift an oversupply of higher priced properties’

    Check out the photo of the towers and cranes.

  2. ‘The July rental vacancy results spell bad news for landlords across Sydney…This added supply spells bad news for investors’

    But Domain, rocket go now? To the moon Alice?

  3. Today:

    Dow down 800 points. NASDAQ down 242 points.

    I hope noone overpaid for house and was expecting a booming stock market and sweet equity to bail them out.

    1. I’m tired of all the hysteria over a bad day on the DOW. It’s still at nearly 26,000 for Christ’s sake.

  4. Those snowflakes are livin’ the dream.

    ####

    This San Francisco Housing Idea Based Off Communism Looks Like Hell In A Handbasket
    townhall.com | 7/11/2019 | Tim Meads

    As a grown adult, for 1,200 bucks a month, you can willingly pay to live in a bunk bed unit with multiple other people in your room where you are provided with ramen noodles, not allowed to have guests over, must be in bed by 10:00 PM at night, and, basically, give up your privacy. Oh yeah, also the founder of this novel idea out of San Francisco based it off of communism. Why would anybody do this? Well, the mainly 20-somethings who choose to do so in the Golden Gate City say they have no other choice because of the progressive city’s rising cost of living. They could of course, simply not vote Democratic to help address the issue.

    As Logan Dobson pointed out to Sanders, “San Francisco has: – A Democratic Mayor – A Democratic City Council – Democratic State Representatives – Democratic State Senators – A Democratic Congresswoman (Nancy Pelosi, if you know her) – Two Democratic Senators – A Democratic Governor …do you see a pattern?”

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/timothymeads/2019/07/11/this-san-francisco-housing-idea-based-off-communism-looks-like-hell-in-a-handbasket-n2549897

    1. do you see a pattern

      Yes. If you have a little self reliance, imagination and aren’t into peer pressure you can live pretty much close to free away from places like San Francisco.

    2. I blame this entirely on Google and Facebook and all the rest of the tech companies that choose to build campuses to house 30,000 workers in the same city.

      All those tech companies could very easily hook these people up with the best phones, internet, and cameras and let most of the work at home. Or site some branch offices in several cities so people can choose where to live. For employees, if they want the “vibrant” city, they can pay for it themselves.

  5. Vancouver luxury prices slipped 13.6 per cent in the quarter from a year earlier.

    Slipped? Plunged, more like.

  6. ‘If we knew that the government was going to regulate preconstruction sale prices, we would’ve canceled the project,’ said Chung Geum-shik, head of a union of workers reconstructing an apartment complex in Dongdaemun in eastern Seoul. ‘A major loss is inevitable since we can’t just stop.’”

    This is why God gave you little feet, Geum-shik.

  7. Interesting its worldwide Obesity: China’s Big Problem | 101 East It is sunrise at a camp for teenagers in China. One by one, they file out of their dorms, some still rubbing the sleep from their eyes.

    As they hurry into formation for morning exercises, former soldiers bark orders at them – jump higher, run faster, squat lower.

    For these children, there is just one aim – to lose weight.

    “It will be difficult, it will be exhausting, but I really have no choice,” says 15-year-old Dushuai. “I absolutely have to lose weight.”

    Back in the 1960s, China suffered a devastating famine that killed nearly 20 million people. But now, the country faces a new scourge: Obesity.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjOcaBQWHGY

    1. in the 1960s, China suffered a devastating famine

      Perhaps it is no longer polite to remember just how that happened.

    2. My wife has a cousin in China that sends their daughter to fat camp. By American standards she’s thick but not obese. But in China unless everybody gains a lot of weight there are still hundreds of millions of skinny girls and if you want a city husband with money you can’t compete against them. And nobody wants to go back to the farm just to get married.

      1. How much you want to bet that this will eventually be reflected in the social credit score? You show up at a Chinese McDs only to be denied the ability to get a “fattening” lunch.

    1. The Treasury yield curve inversion out to 30 years is now complete.

      Global Markets: Stocks rattled, oil sinks as bond markets scream recession
      By Tomo Uetake and Wayne Cole
      Reuters
      August 14, 2019, 8:05 PM PDT
      – Passersby are reflected on a screen displaying graphs of market indices outside a brokerage in Tokyo
      – Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York

      1 / 2
      Global Markets: Stocks rattled, oil sinks as bond markets scream recession
      Passersby are reflected on a screen displaying graphs of market indices outside a brokerage in Tokyo
      By Tomo Uetake and Wayne Cole

      TOKYO/SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian stocks stumbled and oil prices extended a punishing sell-off on Thursday as investors feared an historic drop in long-term U.S. bond yields could portend a recession globally.

      Spooked investors stampeded to the safety of sovereign debt and drove yields on 30-year Treasuries to all-time lows at 1.965%. Yields have now fallen a staggering 60 basis points in just 12 sessions to pay less than three-month debt.

    2. This time is different.

      Janet Yellen to Wall Street: A recession is unlikely
      By Henry Fernandez
      Published August 14, 2019
      Recession
      FOXBusiness
      Janet Yellen on US recession concerns: Most likely no
      Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addresses concerns about a potential U.S. recession.

      Former chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen told FOX Business she doesn’t think the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession after the bond market sounded an economic alarm bell.

      “I think the answer is most likely no,” Yellen said exclusively on “WSJ at Large” Wednesday. “I think the U.S. economy has enough strength to avoid that. But the odds have clearly risen and they are higher than I’m frankly comfortable with.”

      The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury for the first time since the Great Recession.

      An inverted yield curve has historically paved the way for the last nine recessions dating back to 1955. The last inversion of the yield curve occurred in December 2005, two years ahead of the Great Recession.

      “So historically, it’s been a pretty good signal of recession, and I think that’s why the markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge on this occasion it may be a less good signal. And the reason for that is that there are a number of factors other than market’s expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields,” Yellen said.

      Recession fears slammed stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than 700 points to session lows on fears of a global economic slowdown and trade concerns. China’s jobless rate hit a record high and Germany’s second-quarter GDP contracted 0.1 percent from the previous three months.

      MORE FROM FOXBUSINESS.COM
      – HOW BOND INTEREST RATES MAY BE SIGNALING A RECESSION
      – DOW PLUMMETS MORE THAN 700 POINTS ON RECESSION FEARS
      – RECESSION INDICATOR WITH PERFECT TRACK RECORD FLASHING RED

      1. Yellen’s comments inspire a lot of confidence. /s

        They kind of remind me of Mnuchin’s emergency meeting this earlier this year that basically freaked all of Wall Street. DON’T PANIC, EVERYTHING IS FINE!

    3. Bond market vigilantes wanna get paid.

      30-year Treasury bond yield falls below 2% level for first time
      By Mike Murphy
      Published: Aug 14, 2019 11:12 p.m. ET

      After falling to an all-time low Wednesday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield (TMUBMUSD30Y, -0.13%) dropped under the 2% level for the first time early Thursday in Asian trading. The longest-dated Treasury bond dropped to 2.06% during U.S. trading, and was last at 1.97%.

    4. The Financial Times
      Markets Briefing
      Sovereign bonds
      US 30-year bond yield falls below 2% for first time
      Investors seek safety in fixed-income market as fears grow over global economy
      © Getty Images/iStockphoto
      Philip Georgiadis and Adam Samson in London and Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong
      19 minutes ago

      A sharp rally in government bonds set fresh records on Thursday, with the yield on 30-year US government bonds falling below 2 per cent for the first time as investors sought safety amid growing fears over the global economy.

      Traders have dumped riskier assets such as stocks and crude oil and moved into perceived “havens”, including bonds, driven by a growing list of interconnected fears including trade tensions between the US and China, and slowing global growth.

      “There is no doubt that the recession risk is rising amid further escalation of trade conflicts,” strategists at BNP Paribas said.

      1. One wonders what drug he might bee $mokin’ … FedFund$ maui.wowie?

        Strategist: Yield curves predict ‘absolutely nothing,’ and central banks ‘never run out of bullets’

        Abigail Ng | CNBC | 8/14/19

        “My view has always been that yield curve predicts absolutely nothing,”

        “What it does tell you (is) that you will have a recession if you don’t do something about it,” Shvets added.

        The yield curve inversion, he said, may demonstrate that the global economy is slowing down. That’s because of a lack of liquidity, absence of reflationary momentum and a de-globalization of trade and capital flows, according to Shvets.

        “If you reverse those elements, then the yield curve will respond very quickly,” the strategist said, adding that, to him, “recession equals policy errors.”

        Central bank$ ‘never run out of bullet$’
        Weighing in on concerns that central banks may not have enough fuel in their tanks to make their policy count, Shvets said that notion was “nonsense.”

        “It has to be made clear: Central bank$ never run out of bullets,”My view has always been that yield curve predicts absolutely nothing,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

        “What it does tell you (is) that you will have a recession if you don’t do something about it,” Shvets added.

        The yield curve inversion, he said, may demonstrate that the global economy is slowing down. That’s because of a lack of liquidity, absence of reflationary momentum and a de-globalization of trade and capital flows, according to Shvets.

        “If you reverse those elements, then the yield curve will respond very quickly,” the strategist said, adding that, to him, “recession equals policy errors.”

        Central banks ‘never run out of bullets’
        Weighing in on concerns that central banks may not have enough fuel in their tanks to make their policy count, Shvets said that notion was “nonsense.”

        “It has to be made clear: Central banks
        $ never run out of bullet$, ever,” he said. “There are so many tools that central banks can bring to bear, (other than) just looking at interest rates.”

        Asked if he is worried that the markets and economy would become numb and weaken the impact of central bank action, Shvets had questions of his own.

        “Would you rather have a deep recession? Would you rather have closures of factories? Would you rather have banks going down and people losing their deposits?” he asked. “If the answer you give me is ‘no,’ then there is no choice but to take various forms of drugs.”

        Taking the analogy further, he said: “One of the things we’ve been suggesting is that there are drug$ that have lower side effect$ than monetary policy. And I think we need to brace those other drugs, not because they are fixing the problem, but because they are extending our life.”

        While fiscal responsibility and structural reforms are good ideas in theory, they almost never work in practice because “people are reluctant to embrace” them, Shvets added.

        “What people would like to see is a perpetual growth machine. That’s what we got used to, for the last 30, 40 years,” he said. “To break away from that is almost impossible without really gut-wrenching adjustment.”

        Given the choice between resetting the system and finding new ways to extend growth, he said most would choose the less painful option.

        “It just can’t go on forever,” he said. “But we can extend it for another decade or longer.”

        — CNBC’s Thomas Franck and Eustance Huang contributed to this report. ever,” he said. “There are so many tools that central banks can bring to bear, (other than) just looking at interest rates.”

        Asked if he is worried that the markets and economy would become numb and weaken the impact of central bank action, Shvets had questions of his own.

        “Would you rather have a deep recession? Would you rather have closures of factories? Would you rather have banks going down and people losing their deposits?” he asked. “If the answer you give me is ‘no,’ then there is no choice but to take various forms of drugs.”

        Taking the analogy further, he said: “One of the things we’ve been suggesting is that there are drugs that have lower side effects than monetary policy. And I think we need to brace those other drugs, not because they are fixing the problem, but because they are extending our life.”

        While fiscal responsibility and structural reforms are good ideas in theory, they almost never work in practice because “people are reluctant to embrace” them, Shvets added.

        “What people would like to see is a perpetual growth machine. That’s what we got used to, for the last 30, 40 years,” he said. “To break away from that is almost impossible without really gut-wrenching adjustment.”

        Given the choice between resetting the system and finding new ways to extend growth, he said most would choose the less painful option.

        “It just can’t go on forever,” he said. “But we can extend it for another decade or longer.”

        — CNBC’s Thomas Franck and Eustance Huang contributed to this report.

    5. Inve$tors Beware: This is a Trader’$ Market Led by Trump Tweet$

      By MALEEHA BENGALI | realmoney | The Street | 8/14/19

      To Trump’s ignorance, this bullying tactic did nothing other than crash his precious S&P 500. It fell 8% last week, threatening to break the key 2850 support, rallied, but barely held onto it. Yesterday, out of nowhere, we get another random tweet from Trump saying that the “U.S. is delaying imposing tariffs on some goods from China until December 15 because of health, safety, national security and other factors.” Markets and stocks rallied back. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Trump had a hedge fund of his own offshore managed by a third party, as clearly, he has the power to move markets up and down as he wishes — the truest form of arbitraging the system! Given his dubious history, it is entirely possible. So, what really caused that turn around?

      Ironically, yesterday Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July were released, with CPI coming in at 1.8% vs. expectations of 1.7% and Core CPI printing 2.2% vs. expectations of 2.1%; a slight upward tick. Dare I say it? Could Trump’s involuntary-spasm-induced tariffs finally be hitting the average U.S. consumer?

      It was inevitable, as it was not long before U.S. companies would pass along increased tariff costs to the customer, despite Trump claiming “we are winning billions of dollars every day from the Chinese.” Clearly the man has no notion of how trade tariffs themselves work.

      Trump needs the average Joe to feel how “great” America is — and higher prices would not help. More importantly, the Fed would not be able to justify cutting rates by 25 bps — let alone 50 bps — in the near future if inflation is nudging higher! That does put a spanner in Trump’s master plan. At this rate, the U.S. economy would be steadily heading down a stagflationary path: lower growth and higher inflation — the worst environment for equities and risk assets in general.

      Taking a deeper look at the products on the list where tariffs will be delayed until December, that list comprises 75% or more of products the U.S. imported from China in 2018. The U.S. needs this for their consumer base.

      This is not an investor’s market at all, it is a trader’s market. It has paid traders to short at highs and buy when markets retreat towards their key 200-day moving average market trend line support. The market is still dictated by algorithm trading strategies. Until their market signals a red, indicating a trend has broken, we will continue to see traders buy the dips at the low end of this range and short at upper end. September will be eventful — fourth time’s a charm? The markets have been flat for the last 18 months, but boring they have not been.

    6. $16 trillion question: What will happen during the reversion from this herd stampede into negative yielding sovereign debt?

      Markets
      Negative-Yielding Debt Hits Record $16 Trillion on Curve Fright
      By Cormac Mullen
      August 14, 2019, 5:32 PM PDT

      The recession alarm bell ringing in U.S. government bond markets sent investors rushing once more to haven assets, pushing the world’s stockpile of negative-yielding bonds to another record.

      The market value of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Negative Yielding Debt Index closed at $16 trillion Wednesday after the key U.S. 2-year and 10-year yield curve inverted for the first time 2007 — a move often considered a harbinger of an economic downturn.

      1. The Financial Times
        Negative interest rates
        How hedge funds are thriving in a world of negative-yielding debt
        The unnerving world of sub-zero rates still offers managers ways to eke out gains
        © FT montage; Sir John Tenniel/CC
        Laurence Fletcher in London yesterday

        The growing pool of negative-yielding debt makes this a hostile environment for most bond investors. Yet some hedge funds have still managed to find ways to turn a profit from the advent of sub-zero rates.

        Concerns over weak global growth and drooping inflation have pushed around $15tn of bonds to trade with negative yields — meaning a buyer is sure to lose money if they hold the bonds to maturity.

        Some money managers trading these bonds have nevertheless chalked up big gains for the year. One of the most obvious strategies has involved simply riding the big rally. Yields fall as prices rise; managers who clung on to their holdings as yields tumbled below zero have reaped juicy profits.

        Among the biggest winners are computer-driven hedge funds that try to latch on to market trends. While many human traders may question the wisdom of buying or keeping a bond that apparently offers a guaranteed loss, robot traders that monitor price moves have no such qualms.

        GAM Systematic’s Cantab Quantitative fund has gained 36.1 per cent, according to numbers sent to investors, with the biggest gains coming from bets on falling bond yields.

    7. The Wall Street Journal
      U.S. Markets
      Global Stocks Slide After China Promises Retaliation for Tariffs
      Government bond yields extend declines
      Yields on U.S. Treasurys
      Source: Tullett Prebon
      As of Aug. 15, 8 a.m. ET
      By Caitlin Ostroff and
      Joanne Chiu
      Updated Aug. 15, 2019 7:12 am ET
      • S&P 500, Dow futures fall
      • Government bond yields extend declines
      • U.S. production and retail sales data due

      Global stocks fell after China vowed to take “necessary countermeasures” over U.S. plans for a new tariff on Chinese imports, compounding investors’ concerns about weakness in the global economy.

      The moves come a day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its steepest drop this year on growing fears of a recession.

      Futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.6%.

      “China is prepared to escalate this one as much as the U.S.,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investment firm IG Group. “The ball seems to be in China’s court at this time, and it’s beginning to spook markets.”

      Meanwhile the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note extended its decline, touching 1.522%—the lowest in three years—after hitting 1.574% Wednesday. Yields fall as prices rise.

    8. Sovereign bonds are the new black.

      Bonds
      Bond yields are tumbling throughout Asia Pacific
      Published
      Wed, Aug 14 2019 11:39 PM EDT
      Updated Thu, Aug 15 2019 2:57 AM EDT
      Weizhen Tan
      Key Points
      – In Japan, Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, yields on 10-year government bonds have been dropping sharply.
      – Recession fears have sent investors pouring into the assets.
      – But investors are staying away from riskier markets — the high-yielding Asia bond markets such as India and Indonesia.
      – The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note broke below the 2-year rate early Wednesday.

    9. The Financial Times
      Charts that Matter Negative interest rates
      Negative yields: Charting the surge in sliding rates
      What was once an anomaly has become commonplace since the financial crisis
      The topsy turvy world of negative rates can turn an investment norm on its head © FT montage; Sir John Tenniel/CC
      Keith Fray
      August 13, 2019

      Negative interest rates are extraordinary, flying in the face of conventional wisdom about how financial markets should behave.

      So-called “real” rates, adjusted for inflation, had often been negative, but before 2009 it was not thought feasible for nominal rates to dip below zero.

      But central bankers had to re-examine their orthodoxies in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Unusual measures became necessary and all leading policymakers adopted some form of quantitative easing.

      Fears over the health of the world economy, stirred by an escalation in the trade war between the US and China, have expanded the universe of sub-zero bond yields. These worries have pushed investors into safe assets, raising prices of government bonds and thereby depressing their yields.

      Even the US Federal Reserve has trimmed interest rates in light of the rising uncertainty, which was the 729th rate cut by global central banks since the financial crisis, according to Bank of America. But worries that the Fed was not planning to cut rates aggressively enough exacerbated concerns that policymakers were not doing enough to avert a downturn and poured fuel on the global bond rally.

      Bonds have sub-zero returns out to 15 years’ maturity in Japan, France, Sweden and Belgium, out to 20 years in Denmark, 30 years in Germany and the Netherlands and an astonishing 50 years in Switzerland. In the case of Germany, it has become the largest economy where its entire yield curve is trading below zero.

      Figures from the ICE database show that roughly a quarter of the global bond market — including both government and corporate debt — now trades at sub-zero yields.

      The problem faced by investors searching for yield in the post-crisis world is evident in the chart. Only 3 per cent of the global bond market now yields more than 5 per cent — the lowest on record.

    10. El-Erian: Negative yields ‘will break things’ in US economy
      Brian Cheung
      Yahoo Finance
      August 14, 2019, 12:17 PM PDT

      As yields on U.S. debt continue to fall, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian says he would sound the alarm if treasury yields dip into negative territory.

      “If we do I’m going to be really worried because negative yields in the U.S., the world’s biggest financial market, will break things,” El-Erian told Yahoo Finance’s On The Move on Wednesday. “The system is not built to operate with negative yields.”

  8. “‘I think ample liquidity is potentially covering a multitude of sins.”

    A decade of those focused on economic fundamentals getting their financial ass kicked will do that.

    Until it doesn’t.

  9. Who will they trot out today to tell us the economy is great? We need somebody everyone can identify with like Captain America!

    1. Who cares how little they are paying you, and how much of that goes to debt service? Charge it!

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-yield-curve-us-consumers-will-offset-a-recession-says-economist-2019-08-15?mod=mw_theo_homepage

      And yes, a picture of Captain America was used at the start of the article.

      “While yield-curve inversions have accurately pointed to several past recessions, this time it’s different. Massive sovereign debt purchases by central banks since 2008 have ‘hugely distorted the government debt market, effectively tilting the scale so that U.S. treasury yields were skewed down.’”

      “And the argument that high interest rates will trigger an economic downturn doesn’t compute either: he points out costs of borrowing are among the lowest seen in modern economic history.”

      “Low unemployment, rising real wages, moderate energy prices, the surge in mortgage refinancings and the 7.3 million job openings firms are still desperate to fill — all suggest that consumers will continue to spend enough to contribute to GDP growth even as businesses retrench,” he said.

  10. “Canopy Growth, world’s largest pot company, lost $1 billion in three months”

    What a business model! Those guys at Tweed really know how to light one up.

  11. Dumb question of the day: Where will investors turn once all bond yields have gone negative?

  12. Lowering rates helped “save “ housing last time but let’s assume rates drop to 1%. Loan size $500,000.
    Payment for 30 years- $1,608/mo
    Property taxes say – $833/mo
    Insurance say $100/mo Total payment $2,541/mo.
    To me that is insane for a mortgage but….
    Also remember that last time the TDRs has very large DQ/default after their rates were lowered. This is because it was the principal and taxes that were killers. Note I am not even factoring in the HOA fees which can be hundreds of dollars more.
    In short, the price coming down is the only real answer, assuming we don’t have negative interest rates as I can’t even begin to comprehend that

  13. ‘A donor with deep ties to Ukraine loaned Joe Biden’s younger brother half-a-million dollars at the same time the then-vice president oversaw U.S. policy toward the country, according to public records reviewed by POLITICO.’

    ‘The 2015 loan came as Biden’s brother faced financial difficulties related to his acquisition of a multimillion-dollar vacation home, nicknamed “the Biden Bungalow,” in South Florida.’

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/15/james-biden-bungalow-ukraine-donor-1463645

    1. Joe Biden’s 2020 Ukrainian nightmare: A closed probe is revived

      — 04/01/19 09:37 PM EDT

      In his own words, with video cameras rolling, Biden described how he threatened Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in March 2016 that the Obama administration would pull $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees, sending the former Soviet republic toward insolvency, if it didn’t immediately fire Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.

      “I said, ‘You’re not getting the billion.’ I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: ‘I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,’” Biden recalled telling Poroshenko.

      “Well, son of a bitch, he got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time,” Biden told the Council on Foreign Relations event, insisting that President Obama was in on the threat.

      But Ukrainian officials tell me there was one crucial piece of information that Biden must have known but didn’t mention to his audience: The prosecutor he got fired was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into the natural gas firm Burisma Holdings that employed Biden’s younger son, Hunter, as a board member.

      U.S. banking records show Hunter Biden’s American-based firm, Rosemont Seneca Partners LLC, received regular transfers into one of its accounts — usually more than $166,000 a month — from Burisma from spring 2014 through fall 2015, during a period when Vice President Biden was the main U.S. official dealing with Ukraine and its tense relations with Russia.

      https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/436816-joe-bidens-2020-ukrainian-nightmare-a-closed-probe-is-revived

  14. Work like you don’t need the money. Love like you’ve never been hurt. Dance like nobody’s watching.

    Satchel Paige

    Rent like ya know there’s a Housing Bubble.

    jeff

  15. ‘An autopsy performed on Jeffrey Epstein showed he “sustained multiple breaks in his neck bones,” the Washington Post reported Wednesday.’

    ‘People familiar with the autopsy report told the newspaper the bones broken in Epstein’s neck included the hyoid bone, which is near the Adam’s apple. This sort of break can happen when a person hangs themselves or dies by strangulation, forensics experts told the Post.’

    https://kdvr.com/2019/08/15/report-epstein-autopsy-finds-broken-bones-in-his-neck/

    I’ve read that this prison uses sheets, which he supposedly hanged himself with, that are made of material which is paper like.

    1. James Dean lines up his shot while competitors, Elvis Presley and Humphrey Bogart, look on. Marilyn Monroe is working her charms, but Epstein thinks she’s too old to distract Dean.

    2. “I’ve read that this prison uses sheets, which he supposedly hanged himself with, that are made of material which is paper like.”

      I read that too, but that information only came from inmates that had actually been in that prison.

      1. My understanding was that was specific to suicide watch. The big mystery is why he was taken off suicide watch.

        1. why he was taken off suicide watch

          Perhaps the Pdoc figured he wasn’t suicidal. Perhaps his lawyers said it was cruel and unusual.

          1. Perhaps a lot of things. But for a witness that important who had already “attempted” I would think none of that would matter if they actually wanted to keep him alive.

          2. I think they would have had a camera on him.

            I think they did. And then it “failed” at just the right moment.

            But yeah, if we have advanced health monitoring equipment for special operation soldiers now you would think we could do it on these kinds of people too.

  16. How to improve a roa$ted turkey $andwich, (add) + $picey mu$tard.

    Market$
    Turkey Plug$ Bleeding Budget With Large Central Bank Transfer$

    Bloomberg |By Cagan Koc and Fercan Yalinkilic |August 15, 2019

    Boost from central bank set to continue in August, data show
    Tax revenue takes hit as economic slowdown curbs consumption

    The Turkish government plugged its deteriorating finances in July with an out$ized ca$h infu$ion from the central bank.

    The central bank outlay comes amid an economic slowdown that has dented tax revenue, prompting the government to seek other sources of income to finance its widening deficit.

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