skip to Main Content
thehousingbubble@gmail.com

The Little Kid In You Is Disappointed Because You Want A Lot Of Candy

A report from KTVU in California. “Donald Kilmer and his wife are in the process of selling their 4-bedroom home in the Cambrian area of San Jose and moving to Idaho. But prices have dropped. According to Redfin, the San Jose market has seen the second biggest drop in median sale price nationwide following Bridgeport, Connecticut. ‘You’re on pins and needles a little bit because you want to get your best price,’ said Kilmer.”

“Oakland’s prices have dropped 2.6% in the same time, marking the fourth biggest price drop in the country. Lex Orosco is the Kilmer’s real estate agent. He says the market has changed in the six weeks since he listed the property, with buyers more picky. ‘It takes a lot more effort to get a house sold these days,’ he said. ‘Buyers are able to ask for more when they’re submitting their offers. They’re getting more time to do their inspections.'”

“Across the city line in Santa Clara, realtor Myron Von Raesfeld lowered the price by $125,000 for a 3-bedroom, 3-bath home near Santana Row now on the market for $1,475,000. ‘Things under about $1.2 million or less, we’re still that seeing that still be a very competitive market. When you start getting into the marketplace above that, you’re seeing it a little bit slower,’ said Von Raesfeld. ‘When you combine the lower interest rates with some of the pulling back of prices, we’re beginning to see more buyers have the opportunity to really look at enter a marketplace where just six to eight months ago they thought they’d never have a chance to get into it.'”

“As for the Kilmers, they’ve dropped their asking price by $50,000 after about 6 weeks on the market. ‘The little kid in you is disappointed because you want a lot of candy for your effort. But then at the same time, the market is the market. It’s impersonal and prices adjust, and we all have to learn to live with it,’ said Kilmer.”

From 27 East in New York. “Out East, a real estate listings service for the East End, reports that of the homes listed for sale on its platform, 35 percent received a price cut during the second quarter of 2019. That’s compared to just 22 percent slashing asking prices during the same period in 2018.”

“The biggest price drop on Out East in the second quarter was $9 million, or a 24.3 percent drop, from $37 million to $28 million. Are such price cuts a reflection of a softening luxury market, or simply due to asking prices that did not reflect the reality of the market?”

“Out East General Manager Matt Daimler: The sweeping price cuts that we see offered on homes in the Hamptons right now is a mix of both a soft market — particularly on the high end — and sellers finally adapting to this new reality. Buyers are in the driver’s seat this summer, and these price chops reflect sellers adjusting to meet buyers where they are, as they get motivated to close a deal while summer at the beach is still on everyone’s minds.”

“Daimler: Buyers should think of the asking price as a starting point. They’re in a really strong position right now. With so much inventory on the market to choose from, they can afford to be picky and patient, and stand their ground in negotiations, as sellers work hard to make their listings stand out.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Home foreclosures often conjure images of dilapidated tear-downs or gutted halfway-done house remodels. However, Texas has a sizable collection of luxury residences that now fall under that unfortunate category. Among them is a million-dollar Memorial house and a nearly $2 million Austin mansion.”

“Situated in the Davenport Ranch part of west Austin, this six-bedroom, 7,439-square-foot dwelling has gone under foreclosure at $1.97 million. In Houston, a house was just listed as a foreclosure property in a posh local neighborhood: a Memorial estate at 12515 Boheme Drive. The three-story, 4,723-square-foot residence hit the market just last week. It is currently priced at $1.273 million.”

This Post Has 88 Comments
  1. Foreclosures in Austin. Hmmm, but the UHS said it was to the moon Alice! Somebody is a lion.

    ‘the San Jose market has seen the second biggest drop in median sale price nationwide following Bridgeport, Connecticut…Oakland’s prices have dropped 2.6% in the same time, marking the fourth biggest price drop in the country’

    It’s down way more than that. Eat yer crowz Thornberg!

    1. “the San Jose market has seen the second biggest drop in median sale price nationwide following Bridgeport, Connecticut…Oakland’s prices have dropped 2.6% in the same time, marking the fourth biggest price drop in the country”

      Caption on the video says “ Bay Area Home’s dip SLIGHTLY”. If it was the other direction the MSM would have said SKYROCKET.

  2. ‘The biggest price drop on Out East in the second quarter was $9 million, or a 24.3 percent drop, from $37 million to $28 million. Are such price cuts a reflection of a softening luxury market, or simply due to asking prices that did not reflect the reality of the market?’

    The Hamptons have been sinking like a turd in a well for over three years. Worser and worser.

  3. ‘Home foreclosures often conjure images of dilapidated tear-downs or gutted halfway-done house remodels. However, Texas has a sizable collection of luxury residences that now fall under that unfortunate category’

    I’ve mentioned before that when I first got into the foreclosure biz, I spent the majority of my time working at luxury gated communities in Flagstaff. Second shacks/luxury are the first to go. Why? They are speculative. Nobody needs a $2 million shack. Nobody needs a second shack.

  4. “As for the Kilmers, they’ve dropped their asking price by $50,000 after about 6 weeks on the market. ‘The little kid in you is disappointed because you want a lot of candy for your effort. But then at the same time, the market is the market. It’s impersonal and prices adjust, and we all have to learn to live with it,’ said Kilmer.”

    Greedhead tried to time the top and missed. Ride the market down now

    1. I know someone who happened to sell near the top. They sold about a month or two after the top (in that area, it was Mar/Apr 2018). Even that early, we could see that the number of bidders was no longer 10 or 15 or 20. It had come down to 2 or 3 or 4.

      1. Trump did not blink that is an invention from the MSM. He did his usual tactic which he has done throughout the trade war. He announces a tariff at a high rate to get companies to adjust the supply chain, then when it gets closer to the actual implementation he dials it back to minimize impacts on US consumers. He has done this consistently for over a year. His strategy is to maximize pain for the Chinese and minimize impacts on US citizens and it is working.

          1. What if China retaliates on the tariffs?

            Trump can and will increase the tariffs on other items. Thus, China will either have to cut the costs to keep the customers or lose sales. If it does the former the US gets more taxes and it hurts China. If it does the latter it just hurts China with very little impact on the US since countries such as India can make it for about the same price. BTW, India is already paying some tariffs.

        1. Friggen right he blinked…He blinked with Mexico (Where is the wall money ?)…He Blinks daily with North Korea…September 1 tariffs…Blink…Because I want the toys-for-tots to remain cheap for Christmas…You want to swallow that BS you go right ahead…

          1. “Friggen right he blinked…He blinked with Mexico”
            Really Mexico is cooperating after he threaten tariffs and Mexico blinked. The Wall is being built, first by replacing outdate fences and recently new wall. Both Nancy and Paul Ryan tried to block it, Obama’s judges tried to block it but it is being built. “He Blinks daily with North Korea” he has imposed the toughest sanctions ever on NK, I already told you on China, half the tariffs will be imposed on Sept. 1st the rest after Christmas maximum pain on China, minimum pain on US, China is collapsing no blink. Go back to MSNBC and maybe the anchors will tell you how Mueller has the goods on Trump. lol

          2. CR8R. $30/bbl oil is on the way.

            Oil Prices Crash On Recession Fears
            By Julianne Geiger – Aug 14, 2019, 2:00 PM CDT

            Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday as weak economic data out of China and crude oil inventory gains in the United States’ spooked oil markets.

            WTI fell more than 5% on Wednesday after booking sizable gains the day prior. At 1:11pm EDT, WTI was trading down -$3.07 (-5.38%) at $54.03. Brent crude fared almost as poorly, with the global benchmark falling $2.96 per barrel (-4.83%) to below $60 again, at $58.34.

            On Tuesday, the API reported a surprise crude oil inventory build of nearly 4 million barrels, unsettling markets that had seen huge gains on earlier news that the United States was pushing back tariffs for some of the items it was expected to go into effect in the beginning of September.

            Then on Wednesday, grim economic data game in from China, which showed a sharp—and surprise—decline in industrial output growth to a 17-year low. Germany too reported weak economic data for Q2 as its exports slowed, hinting at a possible recession.

            The final straw on Wednesday was the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that backed up Tuesday’s API report of a build in US crude oil inventory.

            Rising crude oil inventory, faltering demand growth, and fears that the China and US trade war will further depress China’s economy definitively tipped the scales into bear territory, with tensions in the Middle East over the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz able to push up prices.

      2. It’s only a “blink” if something is rolled back after it is implemented. Besides, this is not a staring contest, its a dance. As long as Trump keeps the below-the-waist groping to a minimum China will not storm off the dance floor.

  5. Nicholas Cage watched National Treasure too many times.. or was it the Da Vinci code… or Monty Python.

    —————-
    “Nick Cage Finally Explains How, And WHY, He Blew Through A $150 Million Fortune On Insane Purchases”

    “Cage says that his real estate portfolio wasn’t born out of the typical motivations for owning houses throughout the world. Instead, he says, he was on what he refers to as a “holy grail quest” to own properties that aligned with various mythological and philosophical locales:

    ‘I started following mythology, and I was finding properties that aligned with that…You read a book, and in it there’s a reference to another book, and then you buy that book, and then you attach the references. For me it was all about where was the grail? Was it here? Was it there?…What is the grail but Earth itself?’

    Now, of course, Cage appears to be on the rebound, with a net worth we have at $25 million and no apparent regrets about his “holy grail quest.”
    ——————–

    https://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/celebrity/nick-cage-finally-explains-how-and-why-he-blew-through-a-150-million-fortune-on-insane-purchases/

    1. “…Cage appears to be on the rebound…”

      He’s been the protagonist in several tough-guy movies lately.

    2. We’ve been watching Nicholas “Crazybux” Cage blow through his Hollywood fortune on outlandish real estate investments for years on end already, alongside his soulmate, Johnny Debt.

      1. Johnny Depp had way too much real estate

        Johnny Depp really loved real estate, and it cost him big time. In addition to the Kentucky farm and $30,000 Los Angeles rental he kept for his mother, Depp also had 13 other residences of his own. The Hollywood Reporter estimated that Depp’s five houses in the Hollywood Hills are worth about $19 million collectively (and Us Weekly reported he wanted to “build underground tunnels” connecting them).

        Depp once had five penthouse lofts in downtown Los Angeles in the Eastern Columbia building. He sold two for $5.6 million, with his remaining three valued at approximately $6.5 million. Depp affectionately dubbed his private island in the Bahamas as “F**k Off Island,” for which he paid an estimated $5.35 million. Depp also owns “a village-like compound” in France; while it’s unclear how much he paid for it, he spent an additional $10 million on renovations for it, Variety reported. Rolling Stone reported that his team recommended he sell the French estate, but that a tearful phone call from his daughter, who grew up at the property, made him extremely reluctant to sell it.

        All told, Depp’s real estate cost him approximately $75 million in total

        Read More: https://www.nickiswift.com/140415/how-johnny-depp-lost-his-fortune/?utm_campaign=clip

        1. ‘Us Weekly reported he wanted to “build underground tunnels” connecting them’

          Perhaps in my next life, I will consume enough marijuana to make this kind of idea seem reasonable.

          1. “Perhaps in my next life, I will consume enough marijuana to make this kind of idea seem reasonable.”

            eProfessor and Musk…talking it over?

  6. Condo owner busted for building ‘Being John Malkovich’-like 4th 1/2 floor

    By Bernadette Hogan, Rich Calder and Elizabeth Rosner
    August 16, 2019

    The real estate market in New York has never been this tight.

    A Lower East Side condo owner turned his small apartment into a mini-village — by converting it into an illegal duplex with 11 sub-units that had ceilings as low as 4 ¹/₂ feet high, officials said Friday.

    The bizarre arrangement in Ni’s apartment No. 601 — which was raided and shut down Wednesday night by the city Buildings Department — was compared to something out of a movie.

    It wasn’t clear how much rent Ni was charging for the tiny units. But the residents there were stacked like sardines, as the 11 windowless units were all carved out of the upper-areas of Ni’s single 634-square-foot condo on the building’s 4th floor.

    By 10:30 p.m. on Friday, officials in blue Buildings Department uniforms were back at the property — as seven tenants from No. 701 left carrying luggage or bags.

    That apartment, too, had been illegally converted — into 9 single room occupancy units, a DOB spokesman confirmed early Saturday.

    https://nypost.com/2019/08/16/condo-owner-busted-for-building-being-john-malkovich-like-4th-1-2-floor/

  7. Ain’t nothing complicated. Somewhat like a sine wave is the asset cycle, althought not a uniform change over time. Latest peak is passed. Yet heavy denial, but even the denial curve is somewhat sinusoidal. Curve changing direction.

    Surely Yun must know this given his experience. Oh, I forgot, he works for the NAR.

  8. Anyone selling in the Bay Area or New York Area who has been in their house for any length of time can still sell for far more than any reasonable rate or return on their property, making an unearned killing.

    The fact that some people are hanging on for bubble peak pricing is insane.

    1. Larry…What holds many back is the taxes.. Both income and property taxes…My neighbor has a basis of around 80K…Even with the 500K exemption, their tax liability on a sale would be around 375k-400K plus they would loose their property tax of less that $1,000./Yr..Many just say I will just hold until I pass away then there is no tax and I keep my property tax…They would rather give the 400K to their grandchildren then give it to the government…Thats one reason you see the reverse mortgages so prevalent…They need some cash but don’t want to sell…

          1. There’s a one-time residential swap that can be done in California, IIRC.

            I believe that was passed because too many people were staying put when they would otherwise have moved due to Prop 13. (correct me if wrong)

      1. That’s interesting. An unintended consequence of public policy, I guess.

        The property tax cap in Mass and NY works better. It’s a cap on total collections, not the tax on particular people who stay in particular houses.

      2. “My neighbor has a basis of around 80K…Even with the 500K exemption, their tax liability on a sale would be around 375k-400K …”

        That means their house can sell for about $1.8M? Well, if the prices decline 20% (by how much has it already declined?) most of their tax “problems” would be solved!

        Never let the tax tail wag the investment dog…

    2. Folks who miss the echo bubble peak are likely to ride the falling knife all the way to the ground, as it is much more precarious for central banks to rescue the housing market with quantitative easing when rates are already at or approaching the zero bound and Eurozone banks are cratering as a result.

    1. It seems like military intervention in China could result in a gunshot wound to the foot, as financiers would relocate to other global financial capitols rather than face the risk of political instability, leaving China bereft of access to financial capital.

    1. Houses selling for $45,000 to $55,000? Here is the inconvenient truth. No one benefitted more from the crackdown on crime in the 1990s than law abiding blacks. Mass incarceration certainly had its problems but it made urban centers throughout the US livable and was the major reason that Millennials were able to live in those urban cores. Now that is reversing in many major cities and smaller black dominated cities. Ferguson is two thirds black. Thus when the housing prices collapse two thirds of the damage is done to black homeowners.

      1. It’s not hard to explain the low housing prices in Ferguson. Who wants to live in a crime-ridden hell hole? I have personal friends who lived there when we were all in early adulthood, who moved away either due to becoming crime victims (in one case, a home robbery) or not wanting to live in constant peril.

      2. Crime in Kansas City and St. Louis Five Years After Ferguson
        By admin | Posted August 13th, 2019
        Dr. Ernest Evans
        Professor of political science and criminal justice studies at KCKCC

        … not surprisingly, in both KCMO and Saint Louis there has been a major surge of violent crime in the five years since Ferguson. In KCMO there were 82 homicides in 2014–in 2015 there were 109, in 2016 there were 131, in 2017 there were 151 and in 2018 there were 137–so far in 2019 there have been 89 homicides in the city. In Saint Louis there were 120 homicides in calendar year 2013 and in the first seven months of 2014 (The death of Michael Brown was on August 9, 2014) there were 70 homicides–in Saint Louis in calendar year 2018 there were 186 homicides and in the first seven months of 2019 there have been 110 homicides.

        So, where do we go from here? If we as a nation are to reduce the surge of violence that has taken place in most of our cities since 2014 our political class is going to have to do something that they have not been good at in recent years: Compromise. Specifically, they must “square the circle” by making sure that police officers are held accountable for abuses of power, but also making sure that in the adjudication of such cases the accused officers are afforded Due Process and some degree of fair media coverage.

        As someone who has been heavily involved in politics his whole life I am well aware that in modern US politics “compromise” is the ultimate “dirty word.” However, facts are facts, even if they are not politically correct. If we do not compromise the ongoing controversy about police relations with society then it is virtually certain that we will continue to have rising rates of violent crime all over our nation.

        1. Nice post Pbear….Police are afforded the ultimate power…That is, the right to revoke (for the moment) you’re freedom…When a rouge officer crosses the the “blue Line” then what we have is;

          “One bad apple can spoil the bunch.”

          Its the most difficult, street filled and risky job IMO…If Firemen get X…Then Police Officers should get 3X…

          1. NPR oversold the “unarmed black man” trope in connection to Michael Brown. My impression is that he was a thug with a record and no respect for the law, who could have done serious violence with his bare hands. It sounded like he was threatening the police officer and refused to back down when asked, which I guess is why the cop was released without being convicted of a crime. If it weren’t for the races of the individuals involved, the story would have been ignored by NPR and most everyone else.

        2. Lol, police have nothing to do with the violent crime in all of these sh!tholes – its the people, many of whom were never taught to be human. They’re devolving to open air zoos at this point, but thats been the case for ghettos going back 50-75 years, when containment was always a core strategy for police. Ask anyone who has ever lived around a ghetto – they’ll tell you the truth. Only the virtue signaling fools that live in their fortress like bubbles paint a rainbows and unicorns utopia.

          They dont need reparations, they need to be repatriated. Maybe they can steal some land from farmers in South Africa. Oh wait, they dont know how to grow food, manufacture, or even show up on time. Stupid is its own reward.

        3. Bear……. Mike brown was functionally illiterate. His HS lost its accreditation it was so bad, so it became a baby sitting service. He had to take remedial classes just to get his “diploma” Then he failed his entrance exam to air conditioning school and had to take more remedial classes at the local Community college….and the media played his momma saying he’s going to college ..to the hilt , which was a lie.

          1. A story I heard through the grapevine was that my HS calculus teacher got so discouraged with the collapse of the school that he quit his job, moved out to the Missouri countryside, and established a lumbermill.

    2. We sold our parents’ home, where they lived for five decades, four miles east of ground zero from the Ferguson riots, within the following six month period.

      It turns out that social unrest does not exactly stimulate bid wars on nearby housing.

      1. Bear….maybe its time we admit race has very little to do with this, but content of character does. Parents who saw the next generation of kids on a jail track not a college one moved… those that didn’t care much for their kids stayed. And that’s where we are today.

        1. “…but content of character does.”

          The de-industrialization of the U.S. screwed the working-class on main street. And citing a nearby college program and #LearnToCode meme wasn’t realistic.

          1. For the record, I learned to code back in the punch card era, and have updated my skills throughout the decades of my career. The steadfast effort has served me well in terms of work opportunities.

          2. As a programmer for 42 years, let me just say that “not everyone” was meant to code… er… how about “most people” were not meant to code…

          3. I had the luxury of learning how to code without really having to code for a living, other than in a few exceptional situations…

  9. Visionary Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto to Reveal Identity
    Founder of Satoshi Nakamoto Renaissance Holdings to disclose the origins of his iconic pseudonym and the word Bitcoin on Sunday, Aug. 18, in the first installment of his three-part daily epiphany “My Reveal” on http://www.SatoshiNRH.com, and http://www.ivymclemore.com

    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/08/16/1903230/0/en/Visionary-Bitcoin-Creator-Satoshi-Nakamoto-to-Reveal-Identity.html

    1. That’s not all …

      “They [prices] have however shot up more than 25% this month, driven largely by Glencore’s confirmation on Aug. 7 that it was shutting its Mutanda copper and cobalt mine, also in DRC, the world’s biggest cobalt producer, for two years.”

      1. Luckily the Chinese economy is still growing by leaps and bounds, and Detroit sells very few cars in China, as otherwise this news would be concerning.

        1. Automobile
          China auto sales in July on track for worst year in history
          World’s biggest market to see double-digit drop in 2019
          TAKASHI KAWAKAMI, Nikkei staff writer
          August 14, 2019 04:25 JST

          GUANGZHOU — New automobile purchases in China have declined for 13 straight months, raising the specter of the world’s largest market contracting by double digits for the first time this year.

          For the month of July, auto sales fell by 4.3% on the year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Monday. Sales have undershot year-earlier figures since July 2018.

          The road to recovery remains elusive amid soft stock prices, a speculative real estate market and stricter emissions standards.

          “Our revenue has fallen more steeply than last year,” said an employee at a Geely dealership in Guangzhou. “It’s because the economy is bad.”

          1. Dumb question of the day: What effect does China’s real estate market have on their car sales?

      2. Last chart I read showed that auto sales were down about 13% yoy in China. But New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and especially electric vehicles continue to gain yoy, even with subsidies being trimmed. The percentage of EVs being sold in China is going up pretty quickly as gas cars continue their slide and EVs gain, or at least hold steady.

        http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/china/

    2. Seems like Dr Copper is also unhappy.

      Related
      Markets Talk
      US market braces itself for US-China trade talks
      Thursday 15 August 2019 10:16 am
      Kazakh-stunned: Copper miner Kaz takes hit as prices falter
      August Graham

      Kazakhstan-based miner Kaz Minerals sounded a cautious note this morning after being stung by copper prices in the first half of the year.

      Pre-tax profit at the company dropped nearly 19 per cent to $289m, hurt especially by a 11 per cent drop in the price of copper, it’s main product.

  10. Well I am waiting for the Sacramento housing bubble to pop in northern California where I live so that I can buy a home. Downtown and east Sacramento prices are sky high.

Comments are closed.

Back To Top