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When Prices Drop A Little Bit, People Are Freaking Out

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “We are entering new territory when it comes to home sales by the Bay East Association of Realtors. According to data from 34 East Bay cities, many of them had more homes on the market in August when compared to last August. But 21 of them saw prices drop, some by double digits. Year-to-year median sales prices are down 9 percent in Oakland, 15 percent in San Ramon and 18 percent in El Sobrante.”

“‘Homebuyers and home sellers are so used to prices going up year over year it is me that when prices drop a little bit or stabilize, people are freaking out,’ said David Stark with the Bay East Association of Realtors.”

“Two affordable condominiums in a swank eight-unit cluster of townhouses under construction along the Shining Sea Bikeway have so far failed to draw any interest from the public. ‘I’m very surprised we don’t have any applications,’ said John Costello, Boston-based Maloney Properties ’s affordable-housing manager. If the deadline passes with no applications, ‘We would have to remarket the units, and the developer won’t be happy,’ Costello said.”

“Seattle, where one of the country’s hottest housing markets is in rapid cool-down mode, leads the country with a 41.3% drop in competition for the week of September 22. Portland, Oregon buyers can expect a 35.5 drop in the competition that week. Price reductions also look to finally be on the buyer’s side in some metros. Realtor.com found Denver has 11% of listings with price reductions. Salt Lake City follows at 10.8 percent of inventory with cuts while Seattle’s active listings are at a 10.2 percent reduction.”

“The big question is whether Central Park Tower is high enough to rise above the luxury market meltdown. ‘We’d love for everyone to be happy and at peace,’ said Gary Barnett, CEO of Extell Development. ‘And China would be pushing all of their people to be buying in the U.S. like they did four or five years ago. That’s not the case. We will have to take some discounts,’ he said, adding that they could be as high as 25% or more.”

“The wealthy are selling real estate, but not buying it, out of a suspicion that prices will never get higher than they are right now, Seacoast Investment Services vice president Dennis Nolte told Business Insider. The wariness is not limited to wealthy US residents. Between March 2018 and March 2019, sales of residential real estate to non-US citizens fell 36% from the year prior, a July 2019 report by the National Association of Realtors found. The dollar value of sales to Chinese nationals — the largest buyers of American residences besides Americans themselves — fell 56%.”

“Over the past month, Nolte has seen wealthy families in the Orlando, Florida area sell undeveloped tracts of land that have been passed down for generations. ‘The one percent, they’re fearing the worst right now,’ said TD Wealth senior vice president James Beam.”

“A developer is taking his marketing approach to an unprecedented level with the offering of a $55,000 Tesla electric car to the buyers of his townhouses. ‘We want to be finishing the project,’ says Sean Hodgins, president of New Westminster based Century Group, ‘and pricing is strong on the market right now. It still might be a bit of a buyer’s market … but it’s leveled off.'”

“Since the market slowed, realtor Ian Watt says he’s received many -mails offering lucrative bonus commissions to bring in buyers on particular projects. He criticizes the approach. ‘If it’s priced correctly, it will sell,’ says Mr. Watt. ‘You don’t need to bribe the realtor into duping your client into overpaying. It’s a sign of the times. Either the place is overpriced, or the market is slow, or both. In a hot market, you don’t have to do that.'”

“Tighter construction financing conditions and a slump in the apartment market have put the squeeze on Australia’s developers. Receivers McGrathNicol this week quietly put seven of Steller’s Victorian development sites on the market in an attempt to clean up the developer’s books and recoup funds from assets. After contacting LBA Capital’s lawyers, ‘our team and JBAM had a discussion in which we all agreed that it appeared that we may have been the victim of a large-scale, sophisticated fraud,’ said Affidavit of KB Securities manager Gilho La.”

“The financial woes of Rose Built Homes have been revealed in the liquidator’s first report, showing an estimated $1.4 million owed to 51 creditors, mostly Marlburians. Rose Built Homes appeared to have been ‘under-pricing jobs’ while racking up debt with suppliers, leaving several homes half-built around Marlborough by the time its bank accounts ran dry, liquidator Brenton Hunt said in his first report.”

“Director Kyle Payne could not be reached for comment, but said shortly before Hunt’s appointment his team of 14 staff had decreased to ‘just myself now,’ and the executive director Ryan Butler left the company for health reasons as the company folded. ‘It’s a very difficult market, it’s very competitive, it’s not what people think, and the market is shifting as well, it’s not as strong as it once was,’ he said. Several other construction industry companies had gone into receivership or liquidation in the last year.”

“Real estate professionals expect home prices, sales and rents will fall in Hong Kong over the next 12 months as protests continue with no end in sight, accordingly to a new survey. That is quite a change from the survey in June. Then the real estate professionals said they expected prices, sales and rents would go up.”

“Meanwhile, Sun Hung Kai Properties last week priced the first batch of Cullinan West III flats in Sham Shui Po at HK$21,722 per square foot, about 25 per cent below secondary market prices. The price was about the same as it was two years ago for units in the second phase of the same development. New homes launching in the city have started to be priced at below the prevailing secondary market price.”

“China’s property giants are notorious for their rapacious issuance of debt. Using presales for financing might seem cheap compared with high-yield bonds, but companies may have now promised buyers too much. The practice of selling homes once construction has started—but often years before completion—now makes up more than 85% of total sales in China.”

“But the game can’t run on forever. At some point, properties promised must be built. They would have to complete a year’s worth of construction just to cover the backlog created over the past year, let alone previous commitments. Public complaints have begun appearing in local Chinese media, and this is only likely to ramp up.”

“One woman in Hebei province reportedly bought a 22nd-story apartment in 2015, only to discover recently that the building had been topped out at the 18th floor.”

This Post Has 166 Comments
  1. ‘I’m very surprised we don’t have any applications…If the deadline passes with no applications, ‘We would have to remarket the units, and the developer won’t be happy’

    There’s a quote by some lady saying it was “baffling”. If no one wants the so called affordable airboxes, I guess the developer is going to very unhappy.

    1. I guess the term “affordable” has different meanings to different people.

      ““Two affordable condominiums in a swank eight-unit cluster of townhouses under construction along the Shining Sea Bikeway have so far failed to draw any interest from the public. ‘I’m very surprised we don’t have any applications,’”

  2. ‘That is quite a change from the survey in June. Then the real estate professionals said they expected prices, sales and rents would go up’

    Surprise, surprise.

    ‘priced the first batch of Cullinan West III flats in Sham Shui Po at HK$21,722 per square foot, about 25 per cent below secondary market prices. The price was about the same as it was two years ago for units in the second phase of the same development. New homes launching in the city have started to be priced at below the prevailing secondary market price’

    Two years of bubble gone, in the most expensive city.

  3. Stark added, “The last time we saw price stability in real estate was during the recession and the short sale and foreclosure crisis. Economic conditions are completely different now. What is driving price stability is buyer behavior and buyer patience.”

    This time is different!

    Damn you chicken Sh*t buyers!

    1. “Buyer patience” can get you into a mortgage into your 70’s even 80’s Not an ideal financial place to be in. I boils down to who best interest. The seller already has a home and every month, if not paid off, gets closer to title. The patient buyer can wait and gamble on price declines all the while exchanging any saved dollars from a purchase on rent.

      1. The patient buyer

        can rent for less than the interest on a mortgage, save a stack of cash and buy in a little while for cash. All the while enjoying life more than any debt donkey can dream of. It may take a little thinking, which is sometimes hard.

          1. 450sqft tow arounds

            My RV is parked behind my house Randall. It’s for vacation trips. If you are trapped in a mortgage, it’s your own fault.

        1. If you are trapped in a mortgage, it’s your own fault ??

          If he has enough or more than enough cash in the bank to pay the mortgage off is he still “trapped” Mr. Blue ??

        1. Market condition = Cool… Buyers market. BTW the homes I track in Clearwater Beach have officially dipped below the 500k mark. This is a big indicator for the middle end of the spectrum or the low end of beach property.

          I am using a mobile browser and don’t see the percentage rental rate decline. How do we see that?

  4. ‘One woman in Hebei province reportedly bought a 22nd-story apartment in 2015, only to discover recently that the building had been topped out at the 18th floor’

    Surprise, surprise! At least it was cheaper than renting. Plus you get the penthouse view.

    1. ‘One woman in Hebei province reportedly bought a 22nd-story apartment in 2015, only to discover recently that the building had been topped out at the 18th floor’

      Wrong! The 22nd-story exists, one just needs to exercise a bit of imagination.

      Here, I am offering up a glimpse …

      Mysterious City Appears In Sky Above China
      https://youtu.be/1KVsrDHUo-I

  5. ‘our team and JBAM had a discussion in which we all agreed that it appeared that we may have been the victim of a large-scale, sophisticated fraud’

    There goes a few hundred million pesos.

    ‘The financial woes of Rose Built Homes have been revealed in the liquidator’s first report, showing an estimated $1.4 million owed to 51 creditors, mostly Marlburians. Rose Built Homes appeared to have been ‘under-pricing jobs’ while racking up debt with suppliers, leaving several homes half-built around Marlborough by the time its bank accounts ran dry’

    Half-built?

    ‘It’s a very difficult market, it’s very competitive, it’s not what people think, and the market is shifting as well, it’s not as strong as it once was’ Several other construction industry companies had gone into receivership or liquidation in the last year’

    When the builders stop answering their phones and the fraud is exposed, it’s hard for the REIC to spin it.

    1. And the domino effects begin.

      The shorted suppliers and employees go broke and bankrupt. Then their suppliers and employees do the same. The new $90,000 F-150 trucks don’t get purchased any more…wife boob jobs delayed…etc.

  6. ‘Over the past month, Nolte has seen wealthy families in the Orlando, Florida area sell undeveloped tracts of land that have been passed down for generations’

    Wa? But Florida is to the moon Alice?

    1. The first thing I thought – this land was in the family for “generations” because it was swampland purchased at bubble prices in the 1920s Florida land bubble and has never recovered.

      1. These wealthy families have probably leveraged themselves, and their deals are not cash flowing, so they need to sell something. The divorces will come next while there’s still something to grab.

  7. A scam bubble automobile for a scam bubble townhouse.

    ““A developer is taking his marketing approach to an unprecedented level with the offering of a $55,000 Tesla electric car to the buyers of his townhouses. ‘We want to be finishing the project,’ says Sean Hodgins, president of New Westminster based Century Group, ‘and pricing is strong on the market right now. It still might be a bit of a buyer’s market … but it’s leveled off.’”

    1. Say what you will about the folly of the housing bubble or your disdain towards Tesla, it is telling that what is being offered as a perk is a Tesla and not a BMW, Mercedes, or a Lexus.

      1. Maybe it says something about their view on the intelligence of the average Tesla buyer. Something like more money than brains. Last time the incentive was flat screen TVs.

        1. Honestly, I do not know which is worse financing a flat screen TV over thirty years or a car over thirty years. Probably really a case of more credit than brains.

      2. HBB poll starts here. Assuming a one to one dollar cost, would you rather
        A) guarantee the mortgage of the undocumented strawberry picker or
        B) subsidize the Tesla purchasing fake environmentalism of OAM?
        One vote here for A

        1. Why so salty John G?

          Don’t worry, you will get your way soon enough. The federal tax credit for new Teslas is only $1875 and will end in December of this year. Of course, this will put Tesla and GM at a competitive disadvantage against VW’s new crop of EVs. So I would vote that the tax credit be repealed completely if US car manufacturers are now penalized because they were early adopters of the transition away from gas cars.

          Besides, the tax credit is no longer needed for EVs. I think it has largely done what it needs to do and can be phased out. Same thing for solar and wind. I agree with Bill Gates: phase out the subsidies for solar and wind and reallocate them to where it is needed for something like offshore wind and battery storage.

          Solar and Wind Power Are So Cheap They’re Outgrowing Subsidies

          1. the tax credit is no longer needed for EVs

            VWs will get the full $7,500 tax credit, and they’re coming to collect their share of our money. Tesla used their subsidy up. Obviously time to end the subsidy. What’s fair changes when you got yours and are now out of the money.

            “early adopters” = early parasites.

            Billions and billions…

  8. First place is a Cadillac.
    Second place is a set on Ginsu knives.
    Third place is – YOU’RE FIRED.

    I would wish you good luck gentlemen, but you wouldn’t know what to do with it.

    “Since the market slowed, realtor Ian Watt says he’s received many -mails offering lucrative bonus commissions to bring in buyers on particular projects. He criticizes the approach. ‘If it’s priced correctly, it will sell,’ says Mr. Watt. ‘You don’t need to bribe the realtor into duping your client into overpaying. It’s a sign of the times. Either the place is overpriced, or the market is slow, or both. In a hot market, you don’t have to do that.’

    1. ‘If it’s priced correctly, it will sell,’ says Mr. Watt. ‘You don’t need to bribe the realtor into duping your client into overpaying.

      Another one cracks the code. “Clients” are going to be increasingly resistant to overpaying, which is going to make duping them a lot harder as the market craters.

      “Put that coffee down, UHS. Coffee is for closers.”

    2. I assume this guy is either near retirement or independently wealthy. No pretty young thing in a Mercedes (male female or otherwise) would say such a thing.

  9. What could go wrong?

    ” The practice of selling homes once construction has started—but often years before completion—now makes up more than 85% of total sales in China.”

    Oh yeah…

    “One woman in Hebei province reportedly bought a 22nd-story apartment in 2015, only to discover recently that the building had been topped out at the 18th floor.”

    1. With ghost cities on the one side, apartments never intended to be built on the other side – China is … interesting … in their unbridled pursuit and worship of money.

      (I think it was someone here that made me aware of the ADVChina youtube channel.)

    2. Hand the money to the builder and then hope he or she does not run off to the U.S with the money. I think they may want to examine whether their greed is blinding them to the risk.

    1. Apt 401 – do you have pointers to articles in the Denver Post or other Denver sites.

      We have a relative getting divorced – and she is so eager to buy a house (for the kids of course). My wife if trying to convince her to rent a town house for the next year or two and this would really help us

  10. We will have to take some discounts,’ he said, adding that they could be as high as 25% or more.”

    You’re quite the optimist, Gary.

  11. “21 of them saw prices drop, some by double digits. Year-to-year median sales prices are down 9 percent in Oakland, 15 percent in San Ramon and 18 percent in El Sobrante.”

    I’m trying to recall if the Bay Area had double digit price drops before the onset of the Great Recession in December 2007 (official dating)? We were out of there by December 2004, and it seems like prices kept climbing for a while afterwards, but I can’t recall if the peak, and subsequent large price declines, predated the recession.

      1. So unless we are already in a recession, which seems highly unlikely, the double-digit price drops in some parts of the Bay Area seem highly unusual and ominous.

        1. the double-digit price drops in some parts of the Bay Area seem highly unusual and ominous ??

          Given the rediculas run-up in valuations that’s what I would consider unusual…Ominous ? Probably…

      1. Looking at all the graphs, it’s interesting to see the effect that ZIRP and QE has had on absolute prices. I think we’re going to look back in a couple decades and say “that’s where the economic inequality gap was widened beyond repair (until the revolution)”

          1. It won’t take much to bring down a house of cards.

            As the joke goes, what is the difference between a good haircut and a bad one? About 2 weeks. Just add some time.

            As professor as been pointing out, the demography will correct the housing bubble as the older generation passes on and the newer generation has fewer offspring, even if DJT manages to push for negative interest rates. The reversal of QT and pushing rates lower might prolong the housing bust, but I don’t think it can prevent the inevitable.

            As the joke goes, what is the difference between a good haircut and a bad one? About 2 weeks.

        1. “until the revolution”

          A bunch of corn syrup fatties covered in tats, staring at their iPhones while vaping 24/7 are going to lead a revolution? This I’d like to see.

        2. “I think we’re going to look back in a couple decades and say “that’s where the economic inequality gap was widened beyond repair”

          I say this to people often. We are the making of a historic event that will never be forgotten.

      2. “But the economy mends, the population grows, people start families, inflation builds up over the years, and repressed demand of those who want to own their own homes builds up.”

        The writers of this article seem completely oblivious to the heavy hand of the Fed in post-2012 market recovery.

    1. Business
      Spending: Don’t get burned by falling interest rates
      By Lisa Gerstner and Kiplinger’s Personal Finance
      Kiplinger’s Money Power
      Sep 20, 2019 | 7:20 AM

      In early August, for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve cut its target federal funds rate, lowering the rate by one-fourth of a percentage point. Kiplinger forecasts that two more quarter-point decreases are likely on the way this year.

      Interest rates — even on savings accounts from prominent internet banks, which tend to prop up rates more than brick-and-mortar banks — began dropping a few weeks before the Fed announced the cut. Rates on some long-term certificates of deposit have been falling for months. The trend will likely continue, so savers will have to be creative.

      1. “The trend will likely continue, so savers will have to be creative.” = invest in something that is very risky and that you don’t understand but that has really high fees/commissions

      1. This might sound heretical, but I actually am starting to believe that DJT is right and that we should lower interest rates to 0, even negative. It would make the cost of servicing debt almost nothing and would reward producers. I’ve come to this conclusion lately by getting to personally know a several near-broke handymen doing work around our place. I’ll bet we could get a lot of production going and employment would help. Savers would continue to be screwed as they have been for quite some time.

        1. Broke handymen?

          [b]Demand High, Labor Elusive in Remodeling Sector[b]

          Most businesses would love to take on more jobs, but struggle to find talent to fill their company’s needs, Business West reports. Skilled labor, especially young skilled labor, is difficult to find for many remodeling contractors across the country.

          About 75% of homeowners are planning one or more projects in the next three months — the highest project-planning incidence since tracking began in 2012, according to the organization.
          The top motivators for projects include repair, replacement, and routine maintenance.
          The average homeowner plans to complete 4.3 projects in the next three months.
          The top projects include kitchens, windows, driveways, exterior paint, and roofs.

          https://www.remodeling.hw.net/business/demand-high-labor-elusive-in-remodeling-sector_c

          1. The average homeowner plans to complete 4.3 projects in the next three months…include kitchens, windows, driveways, exterior paint, and roofs.

            Once again I am way below average!

          2. I know my incidents are anecdotal and I’m sure that some are doing well. But the handyman I contracted out all but admitted he was struggling to pay the rent. It was sad to see. Of course he was self-employed and struggling to pay a huge hospital bill from a car wreck and having no insurance. He was working and making money, but on a treadmill getting nowhere it seems

          3. Not when you have a cat who like leaving his hairy marks all over the place

            You and me both. 4 projects in 3 months? I don’t even vacuum that often!

        2. We do not need negative interest rates. We do need sufficient liquidity in the system to make short term interest rates lower than long term. The Fed caused a liquidity problem which first caused an inverted yield curve and then caused the short term interest rate spike. The Fed’s main job is to provide sufficient liquidity but it was too busy trying to undermine an anti-globalist president to do it.

        3. But don’t you think that along with 0 or neg rates that this will be combined with qe in some form or another? If so this is merely another form of theft by devaluing purchasing power of the dollar. It can only increase the wealth gap.

    2. Politics & Policy
      The Fed Is Trapped in the Twilight Zone
      “You are traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land of imagination.”
      By Mark Gongloff
      September 19, 2019, 1:34 PM PDT
      Rod Serling, host and narrator of The Twilight Zone.
      Photographer: CBS Photo Archive/CBS/Getty Images
      Today’s Agenda
      Fed Problems

      The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of those rare, lucky entities that can occasionally solve problems just by shooting money at them. Too bad its biggest problems resist such treatment.

      The central bank today doused a fire that had been raging in the overnight repo market, simply by pumping $75 billion at it today, $75 billion yesterday and $53 billion the day before that, with a promise of more money tomorrow. Must be nice! Financial markets mostly returned to normal functioning, though there could be small flare-ups easily handled by the administration of more buckets of money. That’s all good news for the economy.

      1. The UnUnited Kingdom celebration$ party is < 41 day$ away!
        (Lots of Twilight Zone moment$ might yer to be di$covered!)

        Britain's Thomas Cook scramble$ for $250 million to avert collap$e.

        Reuters | by Alistair Smout | 9/20/2019

        LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s Thomas Cook (TCG.L) needs to find an extra 200 million pounds ($251 million) to satisfy its lender$ or one of the world’s olde$t holiday company risk$ collap$e, potentially stranding thousands of holidaymakers across Europe.

        Demand for an extra funding facility puts that deal at risk, as well as the jobs of Thomas Cook’s 21,000 employees and the holidays of 600,000 customers, mostly from Germany, Britain and Scandinavia.

        Thomas Cook said the recapitalization posed “a significant risk of no recovery” for the diluted shareholders. Shares in the company hit a record low of 3.22 pence following its statement. The stock was down 15% at 0733 GMT.

        Thomas Cook has struggled with competition in popular destinations, high debt levels and an unusually hot summer in 2018 which reduced last-minute bookings. The firm has 1.7 billion pounds of debt.

        A source close to the discussions said on Thursday that Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) (RBS.L) had hit Thomas Cook with a last minute demand for the extra funding, adding that the situation “was becoming more critical”.

        A spokesman for RBS said the bank did not “recognize this characterization of events” and was working with all parties to “try and find a resolution to the funding and liquidity shortfall at Thomas Cook”.

        Under original terms of the plan, Fosun – whose Chine$e parent owns all-inclusive holiday firm Club Med – would contribute 450 million pounds ($552 million) of new money in return for at least 75% of the tour operator business and 25% of the group’s airline.

        Lot$ of ancient wall$ are beginning to crumble in Thee Royal.Kingdom.

        1. 450 million pounds ($552 million) of new money in return for at least 75%

          of the 1.7 billion pound debt. Those Chinese are pretty slick!

        2. I just flew Condor from Frankfurt to Seattle a couple days ago and feel lucky they didnt go belly up beforehand. I booked back in February and the day after I booked they canceled one of the flights and replaced it with one that required an overnight stay. I complained and they blew me off for a while so I did some research and found out how precarious their financials are. I was familiar with the parent company Thomas Cook but had no idea about all the low cost airlines in europe going bust in the recent past. On boarding the plane I looked around at the passengers and crew and wondered if they knew how sketchy things are.

          All these so called low cost flying cattle cars have run up lots of red ink while taking money from the stalwarts that used to be stable but are probably hurting now as well.

      1. “…why do investors continue to buy these money-losing bonds?…”

        An analogy

        You own a small retail business in a bad part of town.

        Luigi “no thumbs” Pavaloni walks in one day an offers to sell you “protection” against “negative” things happening to you.

        If you pay, you will make no profit and eventually go out of business.

        If you don’t pay, your store will be burned down and you will go out of business.

        Solution?

        Mass rebellion

        1. If you put the money in the mattress you lose 3% due to inflation.
          If you put the money in the bank you lose 1% due to negative interest rates.
          Time to get physical

          1. “…Time to get physical…”

            Reminds me of mud wrestling.

            Even the “winner” (term used loosely) ends up as a dirty, blooding mess.

    3. You would think Japan’s experience in the 1990s would have been instructive, but perhaps not.

      View
      More rate cuts won’t save the economy – in fact they’re making it worse
      Extremely low rates may lead to slower growth by increasing market concentration and thus weakening firms’ incentive to boost productivity
      Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, announced further rate cuts and stimulus measures on September 12 Getty Images
      By Ernest Liu, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi
      September 18, 2019 1:01 am GMT

      The real (inflation-adjusted) yield on ten-year US treasuries is currently zero, and has been extremely low for most of the past eight years. Outside of the United States, meanwhile, 40% of investment-grade bonds have negative nominal yields.

      And most recently, the European Central Bank further reduced its deposit rate to -0.5% as part of a new package of economic stimulus measures for the eurozone.

      Low interest rates have traditionally been viewed as positive for economic growth. But our recent research suggests that this may not be the case.

      Instead, extremely low interest rates may lead to slower growth by increasing market concentration. If this argument is correct, it implies that reducing interest rates further will not save the global economy from stagnation.

  12. Fed rates cuts are a mistake, says Oaktree’s billionaire co-chairman
    By Barbara Kollmeyer
    Published: Sept 20, 2019 10:01 a.m. ET
    Critical information for the U.S. trading day
    Bloomberg News/Landov
    Oaktree chairman Howard Marks weighing in…

    We’re going to hear from a busy lineup of Federal Reserve officials on Friday, and they may shed more light on why the bank was so divided on this week’s interest rate cut.

    Our call of the day, from Oaktree Capital’s billionaire co-chairman Howard Marks, also weighs in on the Fed as he says the economy doesn’t really need the rate cuts it’s been doling out.

  13. ” ‘We’d love for everyone to be happy and at peace,’ said Gary Barnett, CEO of Extell Development. ‘And China would be pushing all of their people to be buying in the U.S. like they did four or five years ago.”

    It’s amazing that we’ve gotten to a place where such traitorous statements are accepted as rational. This is what the financialization of our economy and the worship of money has done to us as a nation. Imagine inviting hordes of alien communists to come in and colonize your country, and acting like that’s a good thing. The people profiting from this have no loyalty, no integrity, no patriotism. It’s truly sickening that property owners across the entire Western world are selling their descendants’ futures to hostile, unassimilable foreigners, while the native-born can’t even afford to reproduce. If that’s what is required to make their balance sheets work then the whole system is rotten to the core.

    1. “This is what the financialization of our economy and the wor$hip of money has done to us as a nation”

      What happened to America in the 1930’$, can.knot$, will.knot$, $hall.knot$ ever happen once again.

      1$t, we now know how to pump/divert water so that dust&bugs don’t de$troy the Nation$ food $upply.

      2nd, we now know that unlimited amount$ of monie$ can be created & di$tributed with ab$olute indemification’$ & impunitie$ to “bidne$$e$” so there will always$ bee job$ aplenty.

      The U$ Federal Re$erve has America’$ back.

      Now, quit with the worrie$ & pay your fair $hare of the National & $tate taxe$.

    1. Oh the horror! This is no Bubble, so stop looking for bubble folks. People overpricing their shacks by 40% is normal. You throw out the lure and if no bite, you pull back. This is common strategy. It’s not like people got to write love letters or feed the rodents or anything. Again, no bubble. No wasting your money on rent and start building equity. House prices always go up!!!

      1. “You throw out the lure and if no bite, you pull back“

        Don’t just give it away. 109,200,300% gains are a right to all sellers. Never let those stubborn buyers win. Put lots of 8s in your listing price, bury St Joseph statues in your yard. List with all caps starting with “PRICED TO SELL FAST!” If it sits for a long time, remove it and repost with a different set of pictures and a slightly different address, always use a realtor because if you don’t we will boycott your listing. With these keys to success you can win the battle against stupid buyer! -JohnDave Your Local High integrity Realtor

    1. Hmmmm …. so buying a slave could cost more than paying hired hands, but you could flip a slave for a profit?

      1. Apparently so. And use them as massively leveraged capital. Even playing that game where the same capital is being used as collateral to back up multiple purchases that don’t know about each other.

    2. Think about this way if we were cheap they would have sold the slaves to others in Africa …….so just like a housing bubble we vastly overpaid for the slaves and they miraculously found us a lot more to buy

  14. ‘The one percent, they’re fearing the worst right now,’

    They didn’t get to and stay at the 1% by being stupid.

  15. $ilCON Valley .CA is comin’ to help America’s farmers having low.wage$ labor i$$ues.

    (Looks like a better $olution then Roundhouse/Dicamba chemical $praying)

    https://farmwise.io

    Also, a robot with soft, but sticky fingers:

    Why robot$ will soon be picking soft fruits and salad

    By Nell Lewis |CNN Business| Wed September 4, 2019

    But recently, technological developments and advances in machine learning have led to successful trials of more sensitive and dexterous robots, which use cameras and artificial intelligence to locate ripe fruit and handle it with care and precision.

    Developed by engineers at the University of Cambridge, the Vegebot is the first robot that can identify and harvest iceberg lettuce — bringing hope to farmers that one of the most demanding crops for human pickers could finally be automated.

    What’$ next? Farmerless driver tractors?

    Indiana Farmer Blazes Trail to Driverless Tractors

    AgProfessional | Chris Bennett | October 25, 2018

    Laird’s innovations are highly significant, according to Mark Young, CTO of The Climate Corporation: “What’s really interesting is what one guy in his garage has managed to do. Now, imagine what ag companies with investments in R&D will be able to do in the next few years. Automation in agriculture is much closer than what people think.”

    Kim DeWees, owner of Vision Ag Farm Management Services LLC, in Rensselaer, says Laird consistently challenges agriculture’s status quo. “He challenges the way things are done, and he’s always looking for a better, more efficient way. People are taking notice of what Kyler is doing. They see machines driving around without people in them and it makes them pay attention. He fixes bugs as they arise, improves each machine as time goes on and people are taking note.”

    “Kyler is very intelligent, an out-of-the-box thinker. When it comes to technology he can computer program a machine to do what many can only imagine. I think what he’s doing is going to be a big part of our future and we’re just getting a small glimpse of it right now,” DeWees adds.

    On Laird’s Jasper County operation, tomorrow has arrived early, but like most farmers, Laird’s shed and shop are filled with millions of dollars in equipment, and the irony grates on his constant drive for efficiency. “I use my expensive equipment like other farmers use theirs—not very often. It’s a horrible, horrible utilization in farming. I see automation changing all of that. In just a few years, it’s going to be a much different farming world.”

    See here for a full collection of Laird’s tractobot videos.

    https://www.agprofessional.com/article/indiana-farmer-blazes-trail-driverless-tractors

    OK, RFD.TV farm joke of the day:

    “What do you call to farmers arguing in the basement? ”

    “A whine cellar”

  16. October is looking to bee a good month for Linus & myself to hide & await the coming of the GREAT PUMPKIN!

    (Linus firmly believes that on Halloween night the Great Pumpkin rises out of the pumpkin patch and flies all over the world delivering toys to all good children everywhere.)

    FEDERAL RE$ERVE
    New York Fed to continue operations in overnight funding market until mid-October.

    By Jeff Cox | CNBC | 9/20/2019

    The New York Federal Re$erve will continue overnight repurchase operations through mid-October.

    The proce$$ will involve three 14-day operations involving $30 billion as well as continued overnight operations of at least $75 billion each.I

    Following the Oct. 10 operation, the New York Fed’s trading desk will continue to conduct repo offerings “as necessary to help maintain the federal funds rate in the target range, the amounts and timing of which have not yet been determined.”

      1. What is magically supposed to happen in October?

        To me it’s just a 1929 joke. But sometimes things like that can end up being self fulfilling prophecies when the whole thing is a CONfidence game anyway.

      2. Focu$ on “will continue” & “following …”

        Now ask$ yerself, why can’t the FEDERAL Re$erve just $olve this $illy i$$ue/problem … Tonight?

        Radical Rick: “How tough is it!?”

  17. Precious metals are surging as safe haven buying accelerates and the long-deferred financial reckoning day promises to lay waste to the Fed’s asset bubbles and Ponzi markets.

    1. aqdan, help out yer “friend$.with.a.future” … Buy their $tocks, hurry, fa$ter!, fa$ter! Before the Market$ eclipse their “all.time” high$!

      Home | Industrie$|Metal$/Mining

      Peabody Energy’s $tock tumble$ toward record low after terminating ca$h buyback$ of debt

      MarketWatch |Toni Kilgore | Published: Sept 20, 2019

      Shares of Peabody Energy Corp. BTU, -8.98% sank 8.1% toward a record low in afternoon trading Friday, after the coal miner said a terminated its cash tender offers to buy back debt, saying the markets didn’t cooperate. “The company noted that, at this particular time, the debt markets do no accommodate a path toward completing the offers and achieving the company’s refinancing objectives in an economic fashion,” Peabody said in a statement late Wednesday. “The company intends to pursue alternative means to accomplish its longer-term objectives in a manner that adds value to the enterprise.” Earlier this week, the company said it completed an upsizing of its revolving credit facility, to help enable the pending Arch Coal Inc. ARCH, -5.33% joint venture. On Friday, Peabody “confirmed its commitment” to the Arch Coal JV, saying it continues to progress through the regulatory approval process. Arch Coal’s stock dropped 5.2% toward the lowest close since Oct. 30, 2017.

      Year to date, Peabody shares have slumped 48.7% and Arch Coal’s stock has lost 13.2%, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.49% has gained 19.3%.

  18. @Mr Banker – wanted to thank for the link to the Atlantic story the other day.

    @OneAgainstMany @BlueSkye @Chinbabew and the rest of you —

    A thought that’s been on my mind again – Reading about the “culture wars” reminded me of something I’ve often though (and we have own little “Cancel Culture” drama going on in game development circles right now). And I thought maybe I’m not the only one who sees it this way… or maybe I am .. I invite your own takes on it:

    —-

    Right now we have a section of society that is busy fighting for power, er, I mean equality and then some more equal than others, in areas of gender (or non-gender), race, and a dozen other identifiers that we mostly don’t get to choose. Combine with a belief (or is it a strategy) of “providing opportunity for all!” to the point of letting in unrestricted immigration of the people the rest of the world doesn’t want. Along with that goes ‘Compassion for the homeless druggies committing crim.. I mean upstanding citizens down on their luck because of the evil “man” who is a card carrying member of the patriarchy. Blue vs. Red on many fronts, and I’m not talking Quake III Arena.

    I believe that we much of this only because as a society we are “rich” … that is, for the most part, the country as a whole can afford these indulgences and social giveaways. And getting ourselves in that position, which gave a lot of the population a lot of material comfort, took a lot of work, much of it from the post-WWII expansion period when USA was the only game in town. Witness the rise of socialism in Europe, which seems to correspond with similar prosperity and ability to afford everything (at least for a while) especially when they don’t have to pay for defense.

    Leaving out my thoughts on how certain groups have worked all this to their advantage, I think should our country lose the levels of economic surplus and prosperity we currently have- I’m thinking a repeat of Great Depression or similar – we’ll not only quickly lose the ability to give away and coddle so much, but we’ll see the willingness to do so evaporate from a good portion of those who currently believe it. That change of heart wont come so easy thought – it’ll take facing actual hardship and insecurity to provide fear to crack through the ideology many people have wrapped themselves in.

    I could blather a lot more, but I think you get the outline of my thesis… Go ahead and riddle it full of holes.

      1. ouch. I’ll take that a veiled commentary.

        Been off the pain killers for weeks now. Recovery progresses. still stuck at 115 degrees.

        1. Good on the progress. I didn’t actually have any criticism of what you wrote.

          My grandparents were immigrants. They waited for two years after applying to get in. They worked hard & loved the USA. No one championed their “identity”. It worked out just fine.

    1. the country as a whole can could afford these indulgences and social giveaways

      I don’t think it’s true any more. We’re only able to pretend thanks to the printing press. Can’t go on forever.

      1. No it cannot go on forever. However as long as we can use dollars to buy things and the government can borrow as many dollars as it wants to and even create them out of thin air it can go on for a long term. I think we will need to lose reserve currency status prior to the big collapse.

      2. The USA can’t afford all these give a ways, unless a big segment of the population is willing to have a much lower lifestyle, especially if your considering monopoly prices for stuff.

        I judge the situation by when I observed that people were more happy when we had a strong middle working majority in which prices tracked with wages.

        Also, for some reason you just can’t give people stuff for free. That is why the rich are corrupt and why the poor is corrupt also.

        I might get stoned for saying what I’m saying, but
        , this has been my observation now for 50 years. It’s very complex on why you have to earn what you get, but it has something to do with mother nature .

        1. “I might get stoned for saying what I’m saying, ” + “It’s very complex on why you have to earn what you get, but it has something to do with mother nature”

          Jesus (& others) might remind you that in your theory, there is millions & millions of fetuses that because of their genetic phenotypes, they might knot bee able to pull themselves up.by.their.boot.strap$, each & every morning of their dy$functional financial obligation$ to a rich & gloriou$ $ociety.

          Millions … & millions … what do suggest for them poor folks?

          1. Of course we need to help the disabled. I’m talking about the able-bodied. But there is a fine line between picking people up from their bootscraps because they have no booths, verses the type of welfare that corrupts and destroys a person.

          2. ” verses the type of welfare that corrupts and destroys a person”

            So, you reckon $hastaholee immigrants are collecting more U$A taxpayer welfare monie$ than U$ citizens living in the major cities$ & farm countrie$?

    2. unrestricted immigration

      Is about the destruction of national sovereignty. It has nothing to do with compassion and everything to do with power.

      1. Yes the obtaining of the power to rule the world not just the US. It is now an obstacle to world government and thus must be covertly destroyed.

      2. “unrestricted immigration”

        “Is about the de$truction of national sovereignty”

        Are you inferring that the Irish & Italian immigrants to America before the 1963 $uperbowl were a force of de$truction?

          1. Those $outh of the Mason.Dixon line is resistricted, those North of the Mason.Dixon line are Tervetuloa!

            ‘Thanks, but no thanks’ – Norwegians reject Trump’s immigration offer

            Terje Solsvik, Camilla Knudsen | Reuters

          2. The original immigrants didn’t get welfare. The USA needed more workers over here. Those immigrants worked their ass off under poor working and living conditions. These immigrants that were vetted
            At Ellis Island made it possible for their offspring to get a better life.

          3. “The original immigrants didn’t get welfare.”

            Their “welfare” started their 1$t year trying to $urvive in America, ya might say it “seeded” their entire future generational $uccess towards the creation of Thee FEDERAL Re$erve & Wall $treet!

            Have you personally ever celebrated Thank$giving in America?

            https://www.smithsonianmag.com/blogs/national-museum-american-indian/2017/11/23/everyones-history-matters-and-wampanoag-indian-thanksgiving-story-deserves-be-known/

        1. Did those populations arrive in such high numbers that they did not think that they needed to assimilate?

          This change was 1964 if memory serves by the illustrious murderer of Chappaquiddick.

          1. When ya get to the ball field 2 hours before the other 30,000 visitors, there’s not arguments regarding where to $etup the tailgate party!

        1. Eye hear ya, it’$ just the some national sovereign$ have financial capabilitie$ far exce$$ive than “other$” & none more so than the U$.

          Global Infe$tors cha$ing yield is a current i$$ue due to them having acce$$ with instant knowledge & instant purcha$ing abilitie$ …

          Humans chasing safety has been circling the Global since the dawn of existence … of all the
          “National $overeignty” in.thee.current.era of “movement.on.the.ground” … The U$ is the One.Nation that can financially endure the “$ituation” & the One.Nation that historically prides itself on being able to offer such a$$istance. Knot anymore. go away!. $ad.

          Italy and France agree migrants must be distributed around the EU

          Reuters |Crispian Balmer | 9/18/2019

          ROME (Reuters) – The European Union must introduce a new, automatic system of taking in migrants saved from the Mediterranean, the leaders of Italy and France said on Wednesday, as they sought to patch up bruised bilateral relations.

          “I do not underestimate what Italy has been experiencing since 2015. It has also suffered many misunderstandings and injustices,” Macron told reporters in Rome, standing alongside Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

          Italy has long complained that it has been left alone to deal with the hundreds of thousands of migrants who have crossed the sea in recent years looking for a better life in Europe.

          The issue has caused particular tensions between Rome and Paris, with Italy complaining that French non-governmental organizations have been instrumental in rescuing migrants but that France has not done enough to help take them in.

      1. Bonus points for mentioning Quake III Arena

        Easy enough when you know most of the original dev team personally. 🙂

        Ummmm. Well yes. Gamer Gate and R/K selection bias.

        Don’t get me started there. I’ve a Z.Q. bump into me.. literally.. as in she wasn’t watching where she was going. The politics, especially in the “Indie” scene have gotten ridiculous, and I’ve got some unpopular opinions of a lot of the participants.

    1. Everything boils down to who has the power at any moment in time. All the different special interest groups vie for that power, but the rich seem to win alot.

      I like the worker class the most, but that’s because that’s the group I was born into. The one thing I hate is when the government picks the winners and losers.

      1. The one thing I hate is when the government picks the winners and losers.

        With having a different rate for capital gains and a higher tax rate for those who work for a living, it seems like the system is structurally rigged for the wealthy. Welcome to “opportunity zones” where millionaires and billionaires can make money investing in multifamily while paying virtually no tax. It’s the system I was born into, but doesn’t mean I don’t try to change it. Who you vote for next year will determine a lot.

        1. structurally rigged for the wealthy

          It’s an incentive to invest. What’s rigged for the wealthy is the credit based expansion of the money supply.

          1. “It’s an incentive to invest.”

            Them$ with exce$$ monie$ have always$ had a built-in innate rea$on to inve$t: GREED

          2. Look at it this way: when capital gains is taxed at a lower rate than wage income, it functions as a disincentive to work. It basically encourages speculation.

        2. I tend to vote for whatever helps the working class. I have a theory about balance of power that produces the best results.

          For me everything is crazy right now. The Communist ideas really scare me because Communist ideas were thought of as evil when I was growing up. I don’t think that there is a lot of evidence that Communist ideas work either in the long term.

          1. “The Communist ideas really scare me because Communist ideas were thought of as evil …”

            Oh my! Russkies, Commies makin’ American citizens defecate on the streets of SFO 2019 … Bad Soviets!

          2. “Spend ‘yo benjamin$ on American Made product$?” I

            wait fer it, it’s coming $peedily down the road:

            Why ye$!, maple syrup & Te$la’$!

        3. Doesn’t mean I don’t try to change things, but I only have one small vote.
          What is really scary is that the rich. might be looking to replace workers with robots. I’m trying to imagine what it would be like if another say 30 or more million become unemployed over that.

          Think about it, that robot isn’t going to have to pay taxes and pay into social security, etc.

          1. “might be” ??? … How old is ye?

            Here’$ a throw back word from the 1970’$: (50 years ago …)
            au·to·ma·tion
            /ˌôdəˈmāSH(ə)n/
            noun
            the use of largely automatic equipment in a $ystem of manufacturing or other production proce$$.

            “unemployment due to the $pread of automation”

      2. I like the worker class the most, but that’s because that’s the group I was born into.

        Me too. It’s kind of funny that my wife is a card carrying member of the Chinese Communist Party (required for better colleges in China) and tends to champion the upper class while I tend to sympathize with the working class.

  19. Real budget data, I find the federal reserve numbers really interesting, the higher the short term interest rates are the more money which is paid to the big banks by the federal reserve and thus less money is provided to the treasury from the funds generated by its holdings. Thus, the Fed by raising short interest rates more than necessary both hurts Trump and enriches the globalist banks. I am sure that it is coincidental. Not.
    https://goldrushcam.com/sierrasuntimes/index.php/news/local-news/20078-cbo-monthly-budget-review-for-august-2019-finds-the-federal-budget-deficit-continues-to-rise-168-billion-increase-year-over-year-revenues-increased-but-outlays-continue-to-rise-for-social-security-medicare-and-medicaid

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