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Most People In Commercial Real Estate Tend To Think It’s Going To Last Forever

A report from Multi-Housing News. “Rezoning or ‘upzoning‘ of entire neighborhoods is undertaken to, on the one hand, increase the density of housing and, on the other, provide cheaper rental units. Neighborhoods that were occupied strictly by single-family homes and low-rise multifamily dwellings, for example, may now include high-rise apartment properties and single-family land tracts may include more homes than previously allowed.”

“In Seattle, an upzoning initiative for 27 neighborhoods was approved by the City Council on March 18. The initiative is set to create 6,000 new rent and income-restricted homes for low-income residents.  ‘Real estate is complex. You don’t avoid a housing bubble with any single tool,’ explained Kristin Ryan, a partner at local development firm Barrientos Ryan, ‘because the housing market is the result of a multitude of factors.'”

From Bisnow on New England. “Top capital markets executives, speaking Wednesday at Bisnow’s Multifamily Annual Conference New England, said they expect equity and debt flow into the sector to continue to rise. They said they see institutional investors allocating more money toward multifamily, banks aggressively competing to provide loans for apartment and condo projects, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac beginning a new spending cycle next week with a combined $200B budget.”

“All of this competition to provide equity and debt for multifamily projects has narrowed the yields on these deals, but with uncertainty in other sectors of the economy, experts believe investors will be happy to accept slightly lower returns. Gregory Bates, the chief operating officer of developer GID, said his firm manages money for some of the world’s largest pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. He said they remain bullish on the multifamily sector. GID’s portfolio comprises more than 30,000 residential units and it has a 10,000-unit construction pipeline.”

“‘Real estate allocations are going to stay where they are or go up,’ Bates said. ‘Apartments and industrial are at the top of everyone’s list … There are terrific tailwinds on the capital side.'”

“The inflow of debt is not just seeking apartment projects, Cornerstone Realty Capital President Paul Natalizio said, but lenders are also bullish on condos, a sector they have had concerns about in the past. ‘There is a surprisingly very strong market for condos,’ Natalizio said. ‘It’s an entirely different market now. Lenders will tell you there are not enough condos … Banks have come a long way in that area, they’re very aggressive.'”

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are also expected to pour more money into the multifamily space in the coming months. ‘The clock starts Oct. 1,’ National Multifamily Housing Council Vice President of Capital Markets Dave Borsos said of the Fannie and Freddie allocation. ‘From that point to the end of 2020, each enterprise will have $100B to purchase loans. As Q4 goes on and into Q1 and Q2, I think [Fannie and Freddie] will put their foot on the gas; they have to spend $200B,. It’s encouraging for all that have enjoyed agency debt.'”

From Bisnow on Florida. “Becker attorney Phil Rosen opened the first panel by marveling at the length of the current real estate cycle. Developers who continued churning out product have been rewarded by a strong market, Rosen added. Mast Capital CEO Camilo Miguel, who is developing 700 apartments on Miami River and owns the Conrad Hotel, said ‘there is so much capital competing for those deals’ that it was driving up the prices of land.”

“‘There’s a lot of money sloshing around,’ said Key International co-President Inigo Ardid. ‘It’s much harder to find a deal than to capitalize a deal. It’s very easy to raise capital, and you’ve got it from a lot of sources.'”

“FM Capital co-founder Aaron Kurlansky did warn that ‘everyone and their mother puts together money and buys multifamily now. It’s a frothy market.’ Kristin Rick, a vice president at Pender Capital, said bidding wars are increasingly common in the market, with some buyers probably paying too much. ‘If we can turn a gas station into a multifamily [deal], we will,’ she joked.”

The Real Deal on Florida. “It’s no secret that the Miami area is facing an oversupply of shiny new condos, spacious units with sprawling terraces in skyscrapers stretching from Brickell to the northernmost tip of Sunny Isles Beach. ut a new product type has emerged that developers claim they can’t build quickly enough: more affordable units that buyers can rent out however and whenever they want, no strings attached. The projects are mostly clustered in downtown Miami and Brickell, with price points in the $300,000 range and up – a sharp contrast to the glut of $1 million-and-up condos on the market in Miami.”

“Miami’s biggest condo developer is even getting in on the action. The Related Group is partnering with ROVR Development to build a roughly 400-foot tower with about 350 units in downtown Miami that will have a short-term rental or hotel component. The project is still in the design stages.”

From CBS Sacramento in California. “The price of housing is going up everywhere, but people in Stockton are being hit especially hard. For example, the Torcello apartments were built in 2003 at a cost of $25 million. That’s $83,000 per unit. Sixteen years later, the same developer is building Stonebrier apartments. The cost is $36 million or $232,000 a unit. That’s a 277% increase.”

From Socket Site in California. “The list price for 201 Folsom Street #41A has now officially reduced to $9.995 million and the ‘incentive’ language removed. At the same time, the list price for the adjacent 5,223-square-foot penthouse shell #41B, which had been listed for $10.495 million (and to which a $1.55 million ‘buildout incentive’ had subsequently been attached as well) has just officially been reduced by $2.5 million (24 percent) to $7.995 million.”

From Senior Housing News. “On the development front, Seasons is targeting markets west of the Mississippi with a particular emphasis on California, said COO Dan Williams. Williams has expertise in standalone memory care, and Seasons is currently constructing this type of building in Torrance, California. ‘Memory care’s taken a little hit recently, I still think it’s an excellent product,’ Williams said. The sector has suffered from overbuilding, but he sees ‘pockets’ — such as as Torrance — where there is unmet demand.”

From Commercial Property Executive. “Heavy incoming supply continued to burden self storage rent growth in the month of August. On a year-over-year basis, street-rate rents fell 1.7 percent for the average 10×10 non-climate-controlled and 2.9 percent for climate-controlled units of similar size. Overall, rent rates declined in approximately 75 percent of the top metros tracked by Yardi Matrix.”

“The flood of newly completed projects impacted Charleston the most, where rent rates fell by 11.3 percent over the past 12 months. Substantial new supply also put pressure on Portland (down 5 percent) and Atlanta (down 3 percent). In San Jose rent rates were still down 6 percent. Other Californian markets experienced little to no improvement.”

From KMBC in Kansas. “Federal mortgage backer Fannie Mae has filed a foreclosure lawsuit against one of Kansas City’s most notorious low-income apartment investment companies — alleging life safety violations and need for critical repairs at the 124-unit Crestwood Apartment complex in a Kansas City, Kansas. Apartment investor Michael Fein is named in a lawsuit filed in Wyandotte County District Court, alleging Fein’s KM-TEH Realty 6, LLC, did not ‘fully repair’ about $190,000 worth of items at Crestwood Apartments outlined in a January inspection.”

“The lack of action, the foreclosure lawsuit says, put the company in default of a $2.9 million loan backed by Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae is demanding roughly $2.5 million of the loan after credits applied, plus interest, according to court documents. This year, KMBC 9 Investigates has uncovered multiple complaints from residents and public officials at several of KM-TEH investors’ properties across the metro. KM-TEH owns 11 properties and about 1,600 units in the Kansas City area.”

From D Magazine in Texas. “I came to Dallas in 1979, when the city was a boomtown. Over the next decade, the city’s skyline changed dramatically as newly constructed, modern office buildings stretched to new heights. The downtown office expansion didn’t last long, though. The market was overbuilt, and it was widely reported that Dallas had a near 30-year supply of office space.”

“When several banks failed after the 1987 crash, many of the companies that were officed close by shuttered and/or deserted Downtown Dallas. More than a decade after Black Monday, downtown Dallas was still primarily seen as a wasteland and a risky investment. I lived downtown, in the penthouse of the Joule Hotel, in the 1990s and felt I had the city all to myself. At one point, I was the only person living on Main Street.”

“For years, when I would talk with investors from other markets, like New York, they always had a story to share about losing money in the Dallas real estate market, office buildings in particular. When the market began to stabilize, many of the older office and warehouse buildings in the downtown area were renovated, and some were converted into multifamily communities and hotels to bring new life to the area.”

“With the surge in rental rates and record sales prices for buildings north of Woodall Rogers Freeway, we see development come south of the freeway including residential, office, and parking structures. Today, demand for office space in Uptown is strong, and leases in the area are some of the highest in Dallas.”

“Forty years after I moved to Dallas, the city is in an economic upswing, and we are seeing record prices for office buildings in the greater Dallas area. I’ve learned that no matter what point of the cycle we’re in, most people in commercial real estate tend to think it’s going to last forever. Having seen the Dallas market move through many cycles, I can confidently say that change is always around the corner.”

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This Post Has 58 Comments

  1. ‘There’s a lot of money sloshing around…It’s much harder to find a deal than to capitalize a deal. It’s very easy to raise capital, and you’ve got it from a lot of sources’

    ‘FM Capital co-founder Aaron Kurlansky did warn that ‘everyone and their mother puts together money and buys multifamily now. It’s a frothy market.’ Kristin Rick, a vice president at Pender Capital, said bidding wars are increasingly common in the market, with some buyers probably paying too much. ‘If we can turn a gas station into a multifamily [deal], we will,’ she joked’

    Miami doesn’t need one more airbox. These people will laugh and laugh as they dig their own graves. CRE is a boom and bust deal. But the vast amounts of “money sloshing around” is what will make this bust worse than anything ever see.

    1. Two different friends of mine who have no background in real estate asked me about investing in CRE funds that pool money from retail investors to buy multiunit properties. It’s a bubble and yield chasing hazard created by central bank manipulation of interest rates. But it only has to work for a few years so word spreads of the amazing rates of returns made by initial investors. Then the ponzi grows like bamboo in Japan.

  2. April 19, 2018

    From Bisnow on Florida. “‘Palm Beach is completely on fire,’ said Todd Michael Glaser, a high-end homebuilder who made his name in Miami but has lately been concentrating on Palm Beach County. ‘I’ve never seen the amount of $8M to $70M homes as in the last three and a half, four months. It’s staggering.’ It’s not just single-family homes that are hot, but a new wave of high-end condos and mutifamily apartments, especially in downtown West Palm Beach.”

    “Kolter Urban President Bob Vail, who is developing the Alexander, said that there is something of an arms race for amenities in the new supply of high-end homes. ‘You see that across the U.S. There are [apartment] buildings in Atlanta, Denver and Dallas that are nicer and more fully amenitized than condominium units, because that’s what it’s going to take to get people to choose that building,’ Vail said. ‘It’s just sort of a differential advantage. It’s really become a race in those more in-demand markets.’”

    “Though the market is healthy now, the developers agreed a slowdown is possible as new supply takes time to be absorbed, construction costs rise and actionable sites get harder to find. Low salaries in Palm Beach County mean that not many workers can afford high rents. When an audience member asked whether they were concerned with an economic downturn, Vail responded half-jokingly, ‘Condo developers, we don’t forecast those kind of things, you know what I mean? We’re just go, go go,’ he said. ‘And the faster we go, the faster we get to the closing, and then, I’m not going to say we don’t care, but … ‘ The audience chuckled as he trailed off.”

    http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10407

    1. See, it’s funny to them. They don’t give a damn about the money they borrow or the people who bought their junk. This is who we are dealing with.

      1. “See, it’s funny to them.”

        And very profitable.

        “They don’t give a damn about the money they borrow or the people who bought their junk.”

        You are half right:

        Part One: They care about the money because they are the ones who get to spend it.

        Part Two: But you are correct; they do not care about the people who bought their junk. The people who bought their junk, as far as they are concerned, are tools to be used in order to provide the money spent by them during Part One.

        “This is who we are dealing with.”

        They use what works and they use who they need to use in order to make what works work.

        None of this would work if their marks, er customers had any sense but, hey, when the marks line up eager to hand over their hard-earned money who is there to say “no”?

        Say “no” and you get to starve while you watch other flourish.

        Darwin, financial Darwin at work.

        1. Say “no” and you get to starve while you watch other flourish.

          And that’s the problem. Be honest and you lose, big time.

      2. Be thankful that Senator Running Deer is coming to save us and restore the integrity of the financial system, Ben. Honest Injun….

  3. REALTOR, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

    I literally don’t know where to throw it, so it all goes in the Escape From Denver fund.

  5. ‘“Federal mortgage backer Fannie Mae has filed a foreclosure lawsuit…alleging life safety violations and need for critical repairs…KM-TEH owns 11 properties and about 1,600 units in the Kansas City area’

    This is why businesses should make money. When you strip out profit with ever higher prices, you can’t operate. The article I posted last week about apartment owners, new apartments, in southern California that were losing money right off the bat should have been front page news in every major paper in the US.

    And I’ll note that rents have never been higher nor has the percentage of rents to income ever been higher. And they can’t make money? Jeebus has there ever been a bigger bubble?

    1. “The article I posted last week about apartment owners, new apartments, in southern California that were losing money right off the bat should have been front page news in every major paper in the US.”

      “… should have been front page news in every major paper in the US.”

      Ben, you really do need to somehow find a way to add a laugh track to the punch line of your many jokes.

      1. ‘the Torcello apartments were built in 2003 at a cost of $25 million. That’s $83,000 per unit. Sixteen years later, the same developer is building Stonebrier apartments. The cost is $36 million or $232,000 a unit. That’s a 277% increase’

        This is Stockton. And they’ll say you can’t spot a bubble.

        1. Stockton is super ghetto and they’re charging over a grand a month for a 1 bedroom on average. That’s insane and down right criminal. People there don’t have that kind of money, especially after you factor in their mandatory expenses- alcohol, drugs, child support, etc.

          2. Also dont forget 300.00 tennis shoes.

            You have to hand it to Nike. They are painfully woke, but they know how to get poor minorities to pay $300 for a pair of shoes that cost no more than $20 to make.

  6. ‘All of this competition to provide equity and debt for multifamily projects has narrowed the yields on these deals, but with uncertainty in other sectors of the economy, experts believe investors will be happy to accept slightly lower returns. Gregory Bates, the chief operating officer of developer GID, said his firm manages money for some of the world’s largest pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. He said they remain bullish on the multifamily sector. GID’s portfolio comprises more than 30,000 residential units and it has a 10,000-unit construction pipeline’

    ‘Real estate allocations are going to stay where they are or go up,’ Bates said. ‘Apartments and industrial are at the top of everyone’s list … There are terrific tailwinds on the capital side’

    ‘The inflow of debt is not just seeking apartment projects, Cornerstone Realty Capital President Paul Natalizio said, but lenders are also bullish on condos, a sector they have had concerns about in the past. ‘There is a surprisingly very strong market for condos,’ Natalizio said. ‘It’s an entirely different market now. Lenders will tell you there are not enough condos … Banks have come a long way in that area, they’re very aggressive’

    Downtown Boston condo price are down 14% at last word. Not enough condos? These people are insane.

    1. “‘All of this competition to provide equity and debt for multifamily projects has narrowed the yields on these deals, but with uncertainty in other sectors of the economy, experts believe investors will be happy to accept slightly lower returns.”

      Bahahahaha … they will accept slightly lower returns and they will like it. Bahahahahahaha … I love this blog.

      “Gregory Bates, the chief operating officer of developer GID, said his firm manages money for some of the world’s largest pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.”

      Note: This is Other People’s Money.

      “He said they remain bullish on the multifamily sector.”

      Which is easy to do when the money involved belongs to somebody else.

      “‘Real estate allocations are going to stay where they are or go up,’ Bates said. ‘Apartments and industrial are at the top of everyone’s list … There are terrific tailwinds on the capital side’”

      Tailwinds on the capital side = Lots of money being thrown into this type of real estate. Note: The driving force behind these investment decisions is based on the amount of money that composes the “tailwinds”. The merits, the reasons, for these investment boil down to the amount of money available to them and to their competitors. Take away the money and these merits, these reasons, vanish.

      “‘The inflow of debt is not just seeking apartment projects, Cornerstone Realty Capital President Paul Natalizio said, but lenders are also bullish on condos, a sector they have had concerns about in the past.”

      “… a sector they have had concerns about in the past.” Not to worry; This time it is different.

      “‘There is a surprisingly very strong market for condos,’ Natalizio said. ‘It’s an entirely different market now. Lenders will tell you there are not enough condos … Banks have come a long way in that area, they’re very aggressive’”

      Aggressive with other people’s money. Oh, and there’s those hefty fees. Er, never mind.

      “Downtown Boston condo price are down 14% at last word. Not enough condos? These people are insane.”

      Yeah? These people, huh. From what I can see people everywhere are insane.

  7. 2496 Bickford Cir, Fairfield – Open House Sat & Sun 1-3PM
    By Home Seller

    Open House Sat & Sun 1-3PM
    2496 Bickford Cir, Fairfield

    Price reduced! ALSO seller offers $10K credit! In Goldridge is darn right nice! Nearly 2800SF, 2-stories, 1bed/1ba down, 3beds/2ba, loft up. Formal LR and DR, gourmet kitchen, FP in family rm, 2 outdoor covered patios, above pool and MORE!

    $564,900

    https://www.dailyrepublic.com/projects/home-seller/solano-open-houses/2496-bickford-cir-fairfield-open-house-sat-sun-1-3pm/

    Westport Oasis Hour From NYC

    PRICE REDUCED

    https://www.shootonline.com/spw-video/westport-oasis-hour-nyc

    2. Last time I saw Tom Brokaw on the television he was a bumbling tottering idiot. Why couldn’t he just exit gracefully in his prime?

  9. ‘The near implosion of global giant WeWork and a surge in shared office space in Australia that is driving down rents won’t kill the co-working boom. At least that is how co-working operators, as well as landlords, leasing agents and other property experts see things.’

    ‘Brad Krauskopf, who co-owns and runs the country’s largest privately-owned co-working operator Hub Australia, says there are many lessons for the industry to learn from the recent turmoil WeWork has endured. “Co-working wasn’t invented by WeWork and forced down everybody’s throats although you could be mistaken for thinking that,” he says. “Watch this space. There is going to be lessons a mile long to learn from this one.”

    ‘This reportedly includes aggressive cost-cutting before a potential attempt to return to the sharemarket next year. Private market investors have slashed the value of their holdings in the business, which last raised capital at $US47 billion ($70 billion) valuation.’

    ‘Michael Cook, group executive for property at landlord Investa, says WeWork has been fantastic for the market. “They have effectively killed the home office, but I think they may have gone too far, too quickly.”

    “I think what we have got here is a lesson in governance, growth, evaluations of private markets,” Krauskopf says. “But it is important to note that WeWork might be melting down but the flexible workplace industry is growing.”

    ‘WeWork’s troubles speak to the broader issues confronting the sector with a pending margin squeeze as per-desk rates tumble amid the massive local expansion. According to co-working space intermediary Office Hub, prices per desk fell an average 10.3 per cent to $642 per week in Sydney in the 2018-19 year, with the average contract value per customer tumbling 18.8 per cent to $19,065.’

    ‘However, Krauskopf dismisses concerns there are too many operators in the sector, arguing the changing attitudes of clients means the market for co-working spaces will remain.’

    “There has been a lot of stock come onto the market and a lot of stock that is either poor quality or not the right configuration for what the market wants,” he says. “Whilst you have got a glut of desks it is not necessarily all desks that the market wants.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-boom-and-possible-bust-of-the-co-working-office-sector-20190926-p52vcw.html

    See, if Brad here had to acknowledge this huge bubble, he would have to:

    Yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip, bmm
    Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
    Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
    Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
    Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
    Ahh, yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip
    Mum-mum-mum-mum-mum-mum, get a job

    1. New downtown luxury living, Phoenix, AZ

      Studio, One Bedroom & Two Bedroom Apartment homes
      City Paws Pet Wash
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      Breakfast In Bed Provided By Local Phoenix Restaurant
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      Over 900 communities valley wide
      We know the current specials and vacancies OFTEN before it reaches the internet!

      http://www.oucampus.org/housing/view.php/73085955/New-downtown-luxury-living

      1. Boston Business Journal
        Commercial real estate developers see a ‘perfect
        opportunity’ in Boston’s South End
        … catalyst for new development in a rapidly changing, and gentrifying, neighborhood — one that’s seen an infusion of luxury housing and is set to see even more …

  11. Democrats subverting historic processes behind the scenes.

    Pelosi’s House Rule Changes are Key Part of “Articles of Impeachment”, Being Drafted Over Next Two Weeks…

    “A formal vote to initiate an ‘impeachment inquiry’ is not technically required; however, there has always been a full house vote until now. The reason not to have a House vote is simple: if the formal process was followed the minority (republicans) would have enforceable rights within it. Without a vote to initiate, the articles of impeachment can be drawn up without any participation by the minority; and without any input from the executive. This was always the plan that was visible in Pelosi’s changed House rules.”

    1. I enjoy telling liberal friends (many of them are) that I have no regrets and no apologies for voting for Trump in 2016.

        1. The Trump Derangement Syndrome ones mostly went away when I deleted Facebook.

          Liberal friends who read as much as I do and don’t rely on social media as a “news” source are often quite capable of having intelligent conversations about things they disagree with.

  12. ‘We’ve identified the 50 most miserable cities in the US, using census data from 1,000 cities across the country, taking into consideration population change (because if people are leaving it’s usually for a good reason), the percentage of people working, median household incomes, the percentage of people without healthcare, median commute times, and the number of people living in poverty.’

    ‘The state with the most miserable cities was California, with 10 in the top 50. New Jersey was second with nine, and Florida had six.’

    https://www.businessinsider.com/most-miserable-cities-in-the-united-states-based-on-data-2019-9

    1. Gary, Indiana: Too depopulated for murder, too poor for drugs.

      “We used to be the murder capital of the US, but there is hardly anybody left to kill. We used to be the drug capital of the US, but for that you need money, and there aren’t jobs or things to steal here.”

      2. “We used to be the murder capital of the US, but there is hardly anybody left to kill.”

        Purdue Pharma kills ’em without the bloody mess.

  14. ‘The Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a settlement with an employee who accused former Director Mel Watt of sexual harassment, ending a 16-month saga that spawned three government investigations and an eight-hour congressional hearing. ‘

    ‘Watt’s five-year term as the director of the FHFA, the regulator responsible for overseeing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, ended as scheduled in January. He was not disciplined, despite an inspector general investigation concluding that he had misused his office.’

    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/27/mel-watt-sexual-harassment-suit-006249

    2. I need to figure out a way to profit from the sexual harassment lottery racket.

      Someone bring me a teddy bear so I can show you where Crooked Hillary touched me when I encountered her roaming the woods. (Shudder)

      #MeToo….

      1. self-driving Teslas

        Betas alpha testing 5000 lbs remote control cars with point to point GPS navigation

        1. I’ve loved having a GPS for about three decades. I’ve used it for driving and boating quite a bit. I always have a paper map (or chart) and a compass. I’ve been a few places/times where the GPS told me a completely wrong location for a while. Good luck!

        2. I can see their value, handy to have, but I don’t use one. I’d rather just map it out online if I’m unfamiliar. When we first moved to Las Vegas I’d look over maps when I had the time and soak in as much as I could. Pretty easy place to learn, it’s not very big.
          What’s really nerve wracking is people following them without question (I’ve read about old people ending up in bodies of water) and my daughter (using a GPS) ending up in an especially bad part of Vegas the other night when she was trying to get to her new gym location (they closed the chain’s local one). I’m amazed I haven’t had a nervous breakdown yet.

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