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They Decided To Take A Loss Now Rather Than A Bigger Loss Later

A report from The Real Deal on Florida. “For the first owners of a two-bedroom luxury condo on the 36th floor of Rise, one of two new luxury towers at Brickell City Centre, buying at a preconstruction price turned out to be a losing proposition. On May 10, a shell corporation owned by Venezuelans Carolina Jimenez Suastegui and Jose Marazita Espinar sold the 1,344-square-foot unit for $700,000, which was a 24 percent loss from what they paid in 2016, when Rise was completed. After deducting closing costs and the broker’s commission, Suastegui and Espinar cleared $637,000 three years after closing at a purchase price of $920,900.”

“Sandra Heath, the Fortune International Realty agent who listed their unit, said Suastegui and Espinar decided to cut their losses before the hole got deeper. Even though they were successful in renting out the unit, her clients were in financial distress and had a mortgage on the property for $450,000 with a due date of Aug. 1, Heath said. ‘They ran the numbers, and even if they had kept it for 10 years they would have ended up paying even more than they were making,’ Heath said. ‘They decided to take a loss now rather than a bigger loss later.'”

“Suastegui and Espinar are not the only Rise preconstruction buyers to take a beating in Miami’s resale market. Analyzing Multiple Listing Service resales data, The Real Deal found that 12 units at the 43-story building were resold between January 2018 and June 2019, at a time when the developer was also unloading more than 100 remaining units. Eleven of those resellers flipped their units at prices way below what they paid during the project’s preconstruction ramp-up.”

“The spokesperson said some of the 12 Rise resellers were distressed buyers who needed to cash out. ‘We’ve been seeing incidences like this across Miami lately,’ the spokesperson said.”

The New York Post. “Those looking to buy a home in Manhattan, Brooklyn or Queens have a number of new developments at their disposal that are hitting the market this autumn. The median sale price of a Manhattan home in the third quarter of this year fell below $1 million to $999,950 — a 17% decline from the same period in 2018. A silver lining of the housing market slowdown, though, is a new benchmark for affordability.”

From Realtor.com on Massachusetts. “Call it a real estate Hail Mary, but New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and his wife, supermodel Gisele Bündchen, have drastically reduced the asking price of their megamansion in Brookline, MA, in the hopes that it will finally sell. The couple originally listed the 12,000-square-foot estate in August for $39.5 million. They recently dropped the price to $33.9 million.”

“‘The original price of the home … is high, and the luxury market in many major cities across the U.S. has tanked,’ Franklin, MA, real estate broker Christopher Arienti explains.”

From Mansion Global. “The latest figures, which cover 79 luxury markets, underscore how shifting economic conditions have dampened the appetite for million- and multi-million-dollar home purchases. The widespread slowdown has affected 50 of the 79 markets, with coastal cities in the Northeast and West seeing the greatest hit. Home appreciation in Southern California, where prices had surged in recent years due to a dearth of supply, has wound down considerably.”

“Some major metro areas have even record price falls, including Marin County, north of San Francisco, where luxury home prices fell nearly 5% in July compared to a year ago. In Washington, D.C., prices slipped 2.1% during that same timeframe.”

From Patch Los Angeles in California. “This Bel Air behemoth has languished on the market for years and was, at one point, the most expensive home in the nation. It’s been humbled by a $100 million price drop, but nothing can change the fact that it’s still the largest home for sale in all of Los Angeles. Luxury developer Bruce Makowsky’s Bel Air mansion is now listed at $150 million — just waiting for the right billionaire to pluck it up.”

From Patch Doylestown in Pennsylvania. “A renovated Court Street home in Doylestown Borough has been re-listed, this time for $700,000 less than its original asking price in 2017. The five-bedroom home, first listed in September 2017 for $1,899,000, is now priced at $1,190,000. The property, originally built in 1911, was completely renovated in 2013.”

From Curbed Austin in Texas. “Big price cuts on big, expensive homes tend to sound a bit breathtaking, because the amount of money entailed in the drop often totals what would be more than half of the total cost of an average home in the same area. That’s certainly the case with this elegant home in Dripping Springs, which recently dropped its asking price more than $250,000, to $1.595 million.”

The Mercer Island Reporter in Washington. “Though the sunny days of summer – and the heightened real estate action that comes with the season – are now over, the residential real estate market on Mercer Island is still quite active. John L. Scott Mercer Island broker Tony Salvata said both buyers and sellers are poised to benefit in different ways if they choose to enter the market in October.”

“‘Even though inventory on Mercer Island has increased in the past few months, if you price your home right it will sell,’ Salvata said. ‘Buyers can take advantage of price reductions on some properties, along with great loan rates.'”

From The Capital Press in Oregon. “For longtime lumberman Bruce Daucsavage, 2019 has been one of the most challenging years for the timber market in recent memory. ‘Right now lumber is very cheap. In the last year prices have dropped about 30%,’ said Daucsavage, head of Ochoco Lumber since 1983.”

“The price drops have rattled Oregon’s timber market. In March, Swanson Group closed its mill in Glendale. Then in April, Georgia-Pacific Wood Products announced it would close its lumber mill in Coos Bay. In May, Stimson Lumber Co. announced it would cut 60 jobs at Forest Grove. Even the Deschutes National Forest has been affected, with contracts for timber sales going without bids.”

“Jim Geisinger, executive vice president of Associated Oregon Loggers Inc., said the down market for timber is largely a reflection of slower housing starts across the country for most of this year. ‘Our markets are driven by the housing market. As the housing market goes so goes the timber market too,’ said Geisinger, whose association represents more than 1,000 contract logging companies in Oregon.”

“The weak lumber market has stalled thinning projects in the Deschutes National Forest, said Brian Tandy, forest products program manager for the Deschutes and Ochoco national forests. The Deschutes National Forest was unable to sell all of its planned timber contracts this year and missed its target by 25%.”

“‘We usually we get one or more bids for each contract offered,’ said Tandy. ‘But the lumber market has been down for three consecutive quarters and isn’t showing any signs of improving. I have been in my current position since 2013, and we have achieved between 99% to 102% of target in the years 2013-18. This year, 2019, is the first year we haven’t met target.’

This Post Has 132 Comments
  1. ‘the down market for timber is largely a reflection of slower housing starts across the country for most of this year. ‘Our markets are driven by the housing market. As the housing market goes so goes the timber market too…’the lumber market has been down for three consecutive quarters and isn’t showing any signs of improving. I have been in my current position since 2013, and we have achieved between 99% to 102% of target in the years 2013-18. This year, 2019, is the first year we haven’t met target’

    The lumber market has been signaling this for almost two years. And for two years we’ve gotten nothing but lies from the REIC.

        1. Notice Thee volume$, knot Thee price.

          Now, connect the dot$:

          The $&P 500 currently boast$5 a P/E ratio of 21.3 while the Nasdaq’$P/E is a whopping 30.33 – valuation$ that are plau$ible when economic expan$ion is driving growth. However, an economic $lowdown could hurt performance, cause di$appointing down$ide $urprise and ultimately push the $tock market into a no$edive.

          https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-warren-buffett-predicting-a-stock-market-crash/

          1. What was the Oracle of Green.i$.$pent motto?

            $eems like a conundrum

            Jun 2007 339.56 -6.26 %
            Jul 2007 309.03 -8.99 %
            Aug 2007 248.86 -19.47 %
            Sep 2007 316.41 27.14 %
            Oct 2007 295.23 -6.69 %

  2. “For the first owners of a two-bedroom luxury condo on the 36th floor of Rise, one of two new luxury towers at Brickell City Centre, buying at a preconstruction price turned out to be a losing proposition.

    Oh dear – this confirms my worst fears, namely, that speculators might’ve overpaid. Requiem for all those dear departed Yellen bux to follow.

  3. ‘some of the 12 Rise resellers were distressed buyers who needed to cash out. ‘We’ve been seeing incidences like this across Miami lately’

    See, for all the talk about all cash buyers, there are loans upon loans involved. In 2015 I posted an article with a Miami broker saying people who put 50% down were refinancing that out and “buying more” condos.

    Yes, believe it or not, there’s a meltdown in Miami’s pre-construction condo market! An exact replay of last decade, except around a 40-60% higher price per square foot and many thousands of more units.

    This bubble is bigger than last decade and it popped years ago. Where’s the main stream media? New York, LA, Seattle, Denver, bay aryans, Dallas, Austin. Chicago has died.

  4. “…They ran the numbers, and even if they had kept it for 10 years they would have ended up paying even more than they were making…”

    We have a big problem here in the USA.

    People with math skills.

      1. It might be interesting to calculate the first and second derivatives of price, which doubtless are both negative at this point in time.

  5. “…a shell corporation owned by Venezuelans…”

    I’m sure the money they were investing was 100% legally earned.

    /sarc

  6. ‘They ran the numbers, and even if they had kept it for 10 years they would have ended up paying even more than they were making,’ Heath said. ‘They decided to take a loss now rather than a bigger loss later.’”

    C’mon, speculators, don’t let those naysayers cramp your style. My realtor assures me that you just dig in your heels and stay the course, she feels the market is going to surprise bigly to the upside in the years to come. It’s a sad, sad world if we can’t make our investment decisions off feelings and hopium.

  7. Seen the PG&E power outages happening in the Bay Area? Reports say that the outages can last up to 7 DAYS!!!! That will do a lot of good to house prices in those areas! 😊

    1. “…outages can last up to 7 DAYS!!!!…”

      General feeling is that outages of this type is becoming the new normal.

      Add in recent bumps in homeowner fire/liability insurance [presuming if even obtainable] and all of a sudden many home”owners” are realizing that “ownership” is not the perpetual gold mine that the REIC agent made it out to be.

      BTW, SoCal isn’t immune either. As of this afternoon, no Santa Ana winds [yet].

      Question for those with more R/E knowledge than myself: Would the very real prospect of [future] power outages and un-attainability of fire insurance have to be disclosed when selling? Non-exactly a selling point.

        1. Ice cold winds and snow here in Colorado Springs. Tons of accidents from California and Texas transplant idiots who think their Subarus and 4WDs make them impervious to the laws of physics while driving on icy roads.

        2. “Place ur bets$.”

          Why would you place bet$, whil$t it’$ in Thee mi$t of a Billion$ dollar$ bankruptcy? . … between$ bond holder$, $take holder$, & resident$?

          Text Jim Cramer of CrameAmerica! with yer $uggestion$

        3. “…valley fever coccidioides…”

          WTF? Gotta look-up that one!

          ***

          “Valley fever, also called coccidioidomycosis, is an infection caused by the fungus Coccidioides. The fungus is known to live in the soil in the southwestern United States and parts of Mexico and Central and South America.” —cdc.gov

          1. Attached to the “Welcome Basket” of

            x1 quart of motor Oil, baby carrots, & pesticide

            When you purcha$e a $helter.$hack in Baker$fried, CA!

        1. We got lucky there…it just cooled off to the perfect temperature for this sort of thing around Folsom. Even though Folsom itself has power, lots of people just east of us don’t.

          1. “Can’t complain that it is too cold here…”

            Just rode my 13-mi hill climb route earlier in 48-degree (F) Fall weather, but it’s the best time of year up in the Columbia Basin with lots of Autumn colors. Crystal clear, no dust and a great view at the lookout.

          2. Jealous!

            Meanwhile, the Yosemite fire is similarly contained to the incipient California real estate bust (i.e. not contained).

            Fire burning near Yosemite reaches 4,900 acres, sparks smoky conditions
            Park remains open but Highway 140 is closed
            The view Thursday oct. 10, 2019 from Turtleback Dome, in Yosemite National Park near Tunnel View, looking west toward the Briceburg Fire in Mariposa County along Highway 140. (Photo: Yosemite National Park webcam)
            By Paul Rogers | progers@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
            PUBLISHED: October 10, 2019 at 1:39 pm | UPDATED: October 10, 2019 at 4:29 pm

            One of the two main highways into Yosemite National Park from the Bay Area remained closed Thursday, as smoke from a wildfire poured into the park.

            The Briceburg Fire, which began Sunday afternoon in the steep canyons of the Merced River, roughly 12 miles west of Yosemite’s Arch Rock Entrance along Highway 140, had burned 4,900 acres and was 25% contained by mid-day Thursday. The fire had doubled in size over the past 48 hours.

            “I wouldn’t say we have the upper hand,” said CalFire spokeswoman Emily Kilgore. “But things are working in our favor. The winds that were predicted really haven’t come to fruition, so we have been making a lot of progress and we expect to see more through the day.”

    2. Think maybe *now* all those FAANG techs will rethink living in the biggest sh!thole in the nation? Minnesota ought be looking good right now…

      1. “Now they get to enjoy it without A/C.”

        There’s always alternative California fact$!:

        Eye lived on a sailboat in Dana Point for 5 years with air conditioning.unpluged.

        Knot a problemo!

      2. They already have. Most of them have large offices outside of the Bay Area and that’s where they’ve been adding the most jobs.

    3. Nothing like this unpleasant reminder of fire season to give would-be California home buyers even colder feet than they normally have as the holidays approach.

  8. “For longtime lumberman Bruce Daucsavage, 2019 has been one of the most challenging years for the timber market in recent memory. ‘Right now lumber is very cheap. In the last year prices have dropped about 30%,’ said Daucsavage, head of Ochoco Lumber since 1983.”

    But but but trade wars? Tariffs? BREXIT?

    It costs too much to build affordable housing so can’t be done.

      1. They’re not “lion” about the cost but the source. Many of these speculators I mean builders brought land at 2x or 3x 2012 prices!!! They have no choice but to build luxury, high-end to make any type of profits, if any!

  9. John L. Scott Mercer Island broker Tony Salvata said both buyers and sellers are poised to benefit in different ways if they choose to enter the market in October.”

    Sellers: Thank God that knife-catcher bagholder came along. Thank God we bailed before the bottom dropped out.

    Buyers: Once you’ve lost everything, you’re free to do anything (sob).

    1. A lot of weasel words to say “We had to put out more open house signs along Island Crest Way than we are used to”

      What he didn’t say was that “priced right” means the houses listed under the median price are still selling (eventually) but it’s getting brutal and freezing on the higher end.

      The real news site for Mercer Island is The Mercer Island Distorter: (http://thedistorter.com/) (parody site if that’s not obvious – see the article on Cougars)

  10. Lots of price reductions. I lost the link but last week I saw a $2mil LA apartment with a $600k reduction to $1.4m, or -30% in one go. Guess they want to sell before they lose more, like the title of the post!

    1. In 2007 the first price reductions started in outlying podunk towns like Craig, Colorado, before storming into Denver and Colorado Springs. Sure enough, since August, the greedheads of Craig, after seeing their shacks sit unsold month after month, are finally sawin’ and slashin’, albeit nowhere on the scale they need to to get those shacks unloaded before the bottom drops out. But the shift started in August, and is now accelerating, with the price cuts becoming deeper and more prevalent.

      1. Craig, Colorado

        I was born in that town when my teenage parents were passing through as part of a seismograph crew back in the 1960s. You don’t see it in the news much :-). But it was handy while living in Colorado to be able to settle arguments with people who wanted to have contests about who had been there longer.

        1. You’ve got more on the way, brother. The real sawin’ and slashin’ hasn’t even begun yet. Still copious quantities of Kool-Aid being imbibed in the Front Range market, with realtors assuring their marks that Colorado Springs is on track to surpass Denver in population by 2030 or some future date – never mind that our water table’s rate of depletion will never support all those hordes, much less the illegals that are flooding in.

          1. never mind that our water table’s rate of depletion will never support all those hordes,

            Kiss those blue grass lawns buh-bye.

    2. Lots of reductions around me in Playa Del Rey, but it’s all luxury inventory. Used to be a pretty chill little beach town, but was rebranded “Silicon Beach” by the REIC about 5 or 6 years back due to Facebook, Google, and Yahoo! moving in. Prices went through the roof.

      Homeowners had a few good years of Chinese buying up their McMansions for whatever the asking price was, no matter how untethered from fundamentals. But that’s been slowing since July of last year. Not uncommon to see a cumulative $500K price cut on $2.4M asking price after it sits for 8 months or so.

      We’ve been in the same apartment for 10 years come February because we got a great landlord and rent control. Now, we can’t afford to move anywhere else within 30 miles. So we’re the poorest people on the block surrounded by all these Silicon Beach millionaires 😐

      Been saving and hoping prices come down where we’re hoping to buy in Hawthorne. Even though inventory is up, DOM is up, and small price reductions are common, Hawthorne still hit a record median list price just this past August. So we’re still gonna be renting for awhile…

  11. Heh, this might be the ONLY thing that Tom Brady ever loses.

    No way is the Tom Brady estate worth $33M. The property is in the burbs, sandwiched between a tiny private college and a country club. Definitely some privacy. 12,000 sq ft on 5 acres isn’t all that big for that price. Oh, and property tax is $12667/month. Built only in 2015? Are they tired of the house already?

    Oh, and if they are selling the property, where are they living now?

          1. Gisele is an amazing selfless woman who accepts Tom’s former girlfriend Bridget and son into their home as family with her other two kids. No parenting plan needed here!

          2. Oops, nothing ages better than a fine gap.

            My wife’s orthopedic surgeon sure enjoys taking his time with her elbow injury and recovery. While men enjoy busty ladies a pair of long lean legs really distracts ’em. I like watching the other women who glance at her and then quickly look at their boyfriend or husband.

    1. $3,000 a square foot might turn off potential buyers?

      “Finding the buyer who wants, can afford, and appreciates this home will be a slow process,” says New York agent Allison Chiaramonte, who adds that asking for over $3,000 per square foot is “a premium in this market” that might turn off potential buyers.”

    1. Surprise surprise …

      Californians Learning That Solar Panels Don’t Work in Blackouts
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/californians-learning-solar-panels-dont-163136244.html

      “Californians have embraced rooftop solar panels more than anyone in the U.S., but many are learning the hard way the systems won’t keep the lights on during blackouts.

      “That’s because most panels are designed to supply power to the grid — not directly to houses. During the heat of the day, solar systems can crank out more juice than a home can handle. Conversely, they don’t produce power at all at night. So systems are tied into the grid, and the vast majority aren’t working this week as PG&E Corp. cuts power to much of Northern California to prevent wildfires.

      “The only way for most solar panels to work during a blackout is pairing them with batteries. That market is just starting to take off. Sunrun Inc., the largest U.S. rooftop solar company, said some of its customers are making it through the blackouts with batteries, but it’s a tiny group — countable in the hundreds.

      “’It’s the perfect combination for getting through these shutdowns,’ Sunrun Chairman Ed Fenster said in an interview. He expects battery sales to boom in the wake of the outages.

      “And no, trying to run appliances off the power in a Tesla Inc. electric car won’t work, at least without special equipment.”

      1. Do we have any boots information about these blackouts? The economic hit must be enormous. I’m sure there are a lot of prepper types who are reveling in this, cooking in their sun-ovens and charging their phones from an Apex Kodiak and what not.

        But 5 days is will totally devastate California’s agriculture. Not just for the five days, but for months. Not only will not you have fresh produce or fresh meat, but you won’t be able to package frozen veggies, or canned veggies, or make canned soup or grind flour or bottle Pepsi… that’s enough wipe out the scheduling for MONTHS. And that’s knowing about the outage in advance, and if such a blackout happens only once. What if happens repeatedly? They can’t expect everyone to have 5 days of batteries on hand.

        1. I’m sure there are a lot of prepper types who are reveling in this, cooking in their sun-ovens and charging their phones from an Apex Kodiak and what not.

          I admit to enjoying when the power goes out here in Seattle and I get to run my generator and bust out the hurricane lanterns. It’s nice to feel they’re not _purely_ for decoration!

          (plus I have gas an lamp oil to cycle through/keep fresh)

          1. Saw a guy the other day wearing a T-shirt that said, “The worst thing about the zombie apocalypse will be pretending I’m not excited.” Suspect a lot of CA preppers who are riding out the power outage just fine are not missing to opportunity to rub it in as friends and relatives who mocked their prepping are now shivering in the dark as their refrigerated food rots.

          2. I admit to enjoying when the power goes out here in Seattle and I get to run my generator and bust out the hurricane lanterns.

            Whatever you do, don’t buy cheap Chinese-made lanterns that leak fuel. Pay a little more and get German made Feuerhand Hurricane Lamps and stock smokeless lamp oil (Lowes sells some good stuff, though I prefer Aladdin) not kerosene, which is too smokey for sustained indoor use. I also LOVE Fenix camping lanterns that use 18650 batteries; those are bombproof. Over the course of several winter storms and power outages, I’ve educated some of my clueless/unprepared neighbors on the importance of having basic preparedness items and supplies on hand to ride out “the unexpected” (though last time I checked winter storms are a fairly common feature of Colorado winters).

          3. Pay a little more and get German made Feuerhand Hurricane Lamps and stock smokeless lamp oil

            Yep. Bought from vermont lanterns.

        2. Lots of Calif wacky tabacky to endure the pain$ of non.compliance around the $afe communitie$ behind of privileged gated entrie$.

          Got a lucie light?

        3. A traffic light controlled intersection should be treated as a stop sign intersection in all directions when not functioning. It’s amazing how some drivers plow-through without a second thought.

          1. We have lit signs on the freeway to explain this fine point of traffic law which many drivers seem to have missed. Perhaps blackouts are anticipated for San Diego?

        4. Do we have any boots information about these blackouts?

          My coworker’s power came back on yesterday afternoon. I’ve noticed that engineers seem to understand the need to disconnect from the grid during outages when using a generator or solar. I haven’t seen anybody try to power their house with their Tesla yet. But back when I was curious to see if a powerwall would charge a car, it looked like it would take about 8 powerwalls to charge a P100D once. So the car really should make a great powerwall if you can leave it home and drive something else to work while the power is out.

          1. Nissan has really been working in to the V2G (vehicle to grid) concept, but Tesla hasn’t really embraced that.

            In theory one could save a good deal of money in locations where there are extreme variations of electricity costs during peak hours by charging during off hours and then using your battery during peak hours for electricity needs.

            Those who have embraced Powerwall 2 (or other home battery storage systems) sometimes say they can make their battery pay back after 6-10 years, though I think at this point having a home battery system would be more of a luxury and less of a pure econ play.

      2. Saw a smaller Yahama gas generator at Costco today – A-iPower 1600W/2000W model for ~$450 – It’s supposed to be a lot quieter than larger units (3000w and up) anyone have any experience with a generator this small?

        1. a lot quieter

          I have a Honda eu3000. It’s fully enclosed in a cabinet to cut down on the noise. Very happy with it. I’d guess it’s about 100 pounds. I don’t know the Yamaha, but if you can see the motor and such it would be a jobsite generator and pretty loud. Aside from noise level, you need to know the amp draw of what you expect to run with it.

          1600 watts is something like 15 amps at 110 volts. So you might be able to run your microwave, but not your microwave and coffee maker at the same time. For charging your phones and computers and a couple of LED lights in one room should be fine. Can’t say about your refrigerator. Amp draw should be on the label or in the specs. If it runs in a standard wall outlet (15 amps) then you could get by. Probably take two or three gallons of gas a day.

          Just to be Captain Obvious, it must be placed outside away from any open windows. Keep it out of the rain. Also, you’ll need a cord rated for 20 amps. Go to an RV place or marina for it if not available at the general store.

          Does that help?

          1. Does that help?

            Yes it does. All of the responses here are a help. It looks these things can be linked to combine output.

            My real first task along this line is to work out the power part/needs of my preparedness plan.

        2. I have a 4500 watt generator and intend to swap it for a smaller inverter generator at some point. As Blue mentions, mine’s a jobsite generator and pretty noisy, but also not great for modern electronics (outputs square wave instead of sine).

          I don’t think I’ve ever exceeded half the capacity on the 4500w generator, so would go with a 2200w on the next one. But all I’ve ever run is the refrigerator, a space heater, and a light or two.

          1. Yeah, my only prior experience was with a what I guess is call referred to as a ‘jobsite’ version – noisy as hell. Per my other reply, I’m working long term on my plans for various preparedness scenarios.

          2. My emergency preparedness plan:

            1) Crank light flashlight (capable of charging cell phones via USB cables)
            2) 1 week of stored water + water filter
            3) Whey protein and sports gels (have these on hand anyway)
            4) Extra blankets
            5) Ability to drive 300 miles

        3. Quiter than most yea but all generators are noisy. I have this exact same model (purchased from costco for $399 during the last sale) it falls a bit short on output for sure but if all you need it for is lights and mabye a couple electronics, it work well. For a standard fridge you would want a generator double in size. I would also recommend a generator that could also run off gas and propane.

          1. A friend of mine who was a cop in Florida during one of the prolonged outages said there were several assaults of people by their neighbors due to the former running noisy generators that pushed already stressed-out people past their breaking point. You pay more for quality Honda generators that also run a lot quieter, but it might keep the peace with your neighbors.

  12. Posting this for discussion. I generally disagree with the writer’s viewpoint, which amounts to putting all the responsibility on financial institutions, and none on home debtors.

    The Great Legacy Of The Great Recession
    WAMU-FM
    Thursday, October 10, 2019
    Listen
    Ten years after the end of the Great Recession, what is its legacy? Who has recovered and who hasn’t?
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    The writers of “The Big Short” note:

    “Wall Street loves to use confusing terms to make you think only they can do what they do. Or even better, for you to just leave them the f—k alone.”

    Reporter Aaron Glantz doesn’t want to let that happen.

    1. “I generally disagree with the writer’s viewpoint”

      “and none on home debtor$.”

      Dear Professor, you obviou$ly have never rai$ed hog$.

      Basically, they will eat & devour, ANY food$tuff$ placed in front of them$elves.

      The que$tion i$: who “accommodated” the food$tuff$ Fed to thee hog$ for con$umption?

      1. The que$tion i$: who “accommodated” the food$tuff$ Fed to thee hog$ for con$umption?

        It takes two to tango, n’est-ce pas?

  13. “Suastegui and Espinar are not the only Rise preconstruction buyers to take a beating in Miami’s resale market. Analyzing Multiple Listing Service resales data, The Real Deal found that 12 units at the 43-story building were resold between January 2018 and June 2019, at a time when the developer was also unloading more than 100 remaining units. Eleven of those resellers flipped their units at prices way below what they paid during the project’s preconstruction ramp-up.”

    How to make a small fortune:

    Invest a large fortune in preconstruction Miami luxury CONdoze.

    1. Well this is just peachy. They need 45 live-in missionaries, a free addiction clinic, and a million “distributed” church dollars to serve only 200 residents. And even the residents themselves admit that many of them are incapable of holding jobs and will need to be subsidized for life.

      If you add up all the gov cheese, that’s the equivalent of, what, one paid staff for every three homeless people. I’m not sure that’s sustainable.

      1. To me this is a very good model and quite laudable. For one, notice how they moved their space outside of city limits since they attracted a ton on opposition:

        “After a community meeting “exploded into Armageddon,” Graham says, he gave up on building within the city, and, in 2014, purchased 27 acres just outside city limits in Travis County. One year later, he started moving people into RVs and tiny homes.”

        Also, the residents work:

        “Maintenance of these shared spaces is one source of employment for residents, who can earn anywhere from $350 to $900 a month to clean the kitchens and bathrooms and contribute to general upkeep around the village.”

        Also, I think this is really important because by using shared bathrooms/showers you can scale much easier at a lower cost:

        “There are no backyards, only front porches, adorned with potted plants, patio furniture, and the occasional bike. Without plumbing or running water, the tiny homes are grouped around shared bathroom, shower, and laundry facilities. ”

        I am sure there are things that could be improved, but I think that RVs and microhomes outside of pricey city centers is probably the most realistic solution.

  14. Yeah, yeah, this is a message board about housing and all, but this short video that has nothing to do with housing is well worth a watch …

    Extinction Rebellion Finally Subjected To Media Scrutiny – The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
    https://www.thegwpf.com/extinction-rebellion-finally-exposed-to-media-scrutiny/

    (here’s a snip or two)

    Lights was taken to task over the Extinction Rebellion claim that “billions of people will die over the next few decades”, eventually admitting that what they were saying did not fall within the scientific mainstream and disclosing that “unfortunately alarmist language works.”

    Extraordinarily for people who use soundbites like “listen to the scientists”, Lights ended up arguing against the scientific mainstream IPCC report, attacking it as presenting “very conservative numbers… using pre-industrial levels of data.” That’s undermining 6,000 scientific references, 91 authors, representing a global consensus with review editors from 40 countries. Lights ended up sounding like the people she purports to argue against, cherry-picking one or two eccentric researchers, against the vast scientific consensus…

    Extinction Rebellion continually says “listen to the experts” but their demand of net zero emissions by 2025 directly contradicts the 2050 target that the experts are recommending.

    When Neil posed the reality that in order to achieve Extinction Rebellion’s six year target, all flying would have to come to an end; all cars would have to be confiscated; meat would have to be rationed by the state; and all gas boilers and cookers would have to be removed from every home; Lights did not deny it, merely responding with the platitudinous comparison “we put a man on the moon.” The entire excruciating interview is worth watching in full

  15. In case this wasn’t posted already:
    Keith Jurow: The Housing Market Recovery Is An Illusion

    (the video is worth a listen too)

    excerpt:
    The so-called housing market recovery is an illusion built largely by panicked lenders and mortgage services, according to real estate expert Keith Jurow.

    The housing market is on shaky ground from redefaulting mortgages, long-term delinquencies, declining sales, and a growing number of properties for sale.

    As a result, Jurow advises against buying property right now, and says homeowners should seriously consider selling before things get worse.”

  16. Are you concerned that a recession might strike, either right after you buy a place, in the case of would-be buyers. or just before you sell your place, in the case of wannabe sellers?

    Buyers be getting cold feet and sellers getting anxious about now!

    1. Investors are getting increasingly worried that a recession or major market crash is coming, Allianz says
      Carmen Reinicke
      Oct. 10, 2019, 04:42 PM
      Associated Press
      – Nearly half of investors are worried that a recession is coming, or that a big market crash is on the horizon, according to a recent study by Allianz Life.
      – There’s a big difference in perception between age groups, the study found. Millennials are the most worried about a recession, but also the most comfortable with the market right now.
      – The study also found that increasing fear isn’t necessarily helping investors make the best decisions about protecting their savings in the market.

      Investors are growing increasingly worried that a major recession — and an accompany market crash — is coming, according to a recent study by Allianz Life.

      In the study — which surveyed more than 1,000 adults in August — 50% of investors said they worry about a recession coming soon, up from 48% in the second quarter and 46% in the first quarter of this year. Similarly, 48% worry about the market crashing, up from earlier in the year as well. Both are the highest readings on the survey since the beginning of 2018.

      “The longer we go in this long bull market the more that it seems like people are afraid of when it’s going to stop,” Kelly LaVigne, vice president of Advanced Markets at Allianz Life told Markets Insider in an interview.

      In addition, as volatility has continued to spike throughout the summer, it makes sense that investors would be more skittish, he said.

      Investor fears about the state of the market are mounting against an increasingly uncertain backdrop. Markets have whiplashed on trade news between the US and China and the threat of ever-escalating tariffs. There are signs that the US economy is slowing, from weakening consumer sentiment to disappointing manufacturing numbers.

      And the US Treasury yield curve — a trusted indicator that’s preceded every economic meltdown since 1950 — has been flashing red since May.

      That’s prompted investors to cool on the market. Only 35% said that it’s a good time to invest, according to the survey, down from 41% in the first quarter of the year.

      Read more: ‘All the makings of a crash are there’: A hedge fund manager sees a giant bubble in the ‘Ponzi economy’ — and he’s sounding the alarm on WeWork and Tesla

    2. Got mattress monies?

      Save and Invest
      Nearly 1 in 5 Americans are stashing cash at home in fear of a recession
      Published Thu, Oct 10 2019 8:30 AM EDT
      Updated Thu, Oct 10 2019 9:23 AM EDT
      Megan Leonhardt
      Woman looking under bed with flashlight.

      The ongoing conversation around if and when the U.S. will enter a recession is prompting many Americans to make some potentially costly mistakes when it comes to their money.

      Based on their fears of a potential recession, 17% of Americans have started hiding cash in their home, according to a new poll from MetLife of over 8,000 U.S. adults over the age of 18. And 21% of respondents report they have become more conservative with their money.

      Making these kinds of moves can prove costly. If you’re hiding cash in your home, you’re not able to take advantage of compound interest, which helps your money grow exponentially the longer you have it invested. Plus, inflation actually eats away at the value of your money, so leaving large amounts of cash lying around can make it harder to achieve your long-term financial goals.

      “Hiding cash in your house is one of the worst things you can do,” Erin Lowry, author of “Broke Millennial Takes on Investing,” tells CNBC Make It. Beyond the financial implications, there’s also the possibility that the money could get forgotten or destroyed.

      1. money could get forgotten or destroyed.

        I suppose that if I forget that I have real money at home, I probably don’t need it.

    3. Yellow flag on recession risk’: Top forecaster warns of cracks in consumer spending
      Published Thu, Oct 10 201911:56 AM EDT
      Lizzy Gurdus
      Top forecaster warns of cracks in consumer spending

      Are U.S. consumers spent?

      There’s a worrisome trend forming in the rate of real consumer spending, also known as PCE, or personal consumption expenditures, said Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

      After a “cyclical upturn” in spending growth in 2016 and 2017 — and additional boosts from rebuilding after Hurricane Harvey and the Trump administration’s tax cuts going into effect — spending has gone into a sustained decline, which could be a “yellow flag” in terms of recessionary risk, Achuthan said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

    4. Housing Market Points to Recession By Election Day
      Blog Post by Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca
      October 10, 2019
      Growth in U.S. Home Prices and Household Income

      Looking back at the years preceding the 2008 financial crisis, a critical warning sign was the surging gap between the growth in home prices and household income—as can be seen in the main graphic above. When income fails to keep pace with home prices, the latter must fall back. Falling home prices, in turn, drive down household spending by way of the so-called wealth effect—that is, consumers cut spending when their assets fall in value. As one Federal Reserve study shows, consumption falls by $2.50-5.00 for every $100 decrease in housing-market net worth.

      Today, a parallel dynamic is playing out—as can readily be seen in the graphic. A similar housing-income gap began opening in 2015. In 2018, as in 2005, housing-price growth began falling rapidly, with significant price drops occurring in several major markets. As the inset figure shows, the trend-line in existing-home sales growth has also been down since 2015, tipping into negative territory at the start of last year. Similar drops have preceded nearly every recession since 1970.

      If these trends continue, we should expect broad falls in home prices beginning by mid-2020, which will in turn drag down household spending against a darkening economic backdrop. Growth has been slowing, with Trump’s tariff war hitting exports. Manufacturing is contracting. Retail sales, excluding autos, have stalled. Consumer confidence is falling.

      What are the best hopes for avoiding recession, then? Well, we could see a U.S.-China trade deal, which would buoy business confidence. But all signs are that this is unlikely, given Chinese insistence that structural reforms are now off the table. A so-called narrow deal, with punitive tariffs eliminated in return for greater Chinese purchases of soybeans and LNG, would amount to a total victory for Beijing, given the country’s naturally rising demand for both. So our base-case is that the trade war continues.

    5. A GE Bear Says Economy May Be ‘Inching Toward a Recession’
      By Al Root
      Updated Oct. 10, 2019 11:35 am ET / Original Oct. 10, 2019 11:04 am ET
      General Electric Uncredited

      Third-quarter earnings season is here and so are Wall Street preview reports. J.P. Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa, a bear on General Electric stock, looked at the outlook for the company’s quarterly results, as well as those of other industrial companies he tracks.

      He’s still bearish on GE shares and is worried the U.S. is “inching toward a recession.” RBC analyst Deane Dray is more upbeat about the industrial conglomerate, though he acknowledges the challenges it faces.

      GE is scheduled to report its earnings on Oct. 30.

      Of course, fear of a recession has been increasing for a while and expectations about the outlook have come down. But lower expectations aren’t enough to save stocks, according to Tusa.

      “Don’t expect to see enough to justify a meaningful rebound in sentiment,” the analyst warned. “Absent resolution on the trade front [evidence] continues to build around a more negative fundamental backdrop with the focus shifting to 2020.”

    6. Economy
      WSJ Survey: Majority of Economists Say Manufacturing Sector in Recession
      Forecasters’ estimates for economic growth in the second half of 2019 also ticked lower
      By Harriet Torry
      Oct. 10, 2019 10:00 am ET

      U.S. manufacturing is in recession, two-thirds of economic forecasters said in a survey, and overall growth in the second half of 2019 is expected to further slow.

      In a Wall Street Journal economic survey conducted in recent days, 65.3% of private-sector forecasters said the manufacturing sector was in recession, or two or more consecutive quarters of contraction.

      1. Anecdotal evidence$ have to $tart somewhere$.

        MARKET$
        It’s official. Manufacturing is getting cru$hed

        CNBC | OCT 4 2019 |Thomas Franck

        A gauge of U.S. manufacturing showed the lowest reading in more than 10 years for September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% for September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction.

        https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/its-official-manufacturing-is-getting-crushed.html?recirc=taboolainternal

    7. Editor’s Pick|3,474 views|Oct 10, 2019, 5:50 am
      If You’re Saving More Money Due To Talks Of A Potential Recession, You Aren’t Alone
      Camilo Maldonado
      Senior Contributor
      Personal Finance
      I cover the best practices for personal finance and paying down debt.
      Americans report saving money in anticipation of a recession. Getty
      Top view of dollar bills in tubes in female hand on colorful background. Business concept

      Put simply, Americans’ relationship with money is broken. It’s no secret that most Americans live paycheck to paycheck. That staggering statistic never ceases to sadden me. Unfortunately, widening income inequality is only worsening the problem.

      Over the past decade’s bull market, the unemployment rate has steadily dropped as the market has reached record highs. But if you ask most American’s, you’d find that they haven’t seen their financial prospects mirror the recovery they see on TV or read about in the news. With only slightly over half of Americans investing in the stock market, it’s no wonder most aren’t jumping for joy when the market increases.

      Headlines highlighting weak economic data are fueling fears of a recession. Knowing that many Americans already don’t feel financially secure, a potential recession would have devastating consequences. For that reason, now is the time to start making changes to prepare for a potential recession.

    8. News
      Half of Americans Are Worried that a Major Recession is Coming: Survey
      By Daniel Moritz-Rabson On 10/10/19 at 10:57 AM EDT

      Half of Americans say that they are concerned a major recession is around the corner, according to a survey released by Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America on Wednesday.

      The survey found that recession concerns have risen 4 percentage points since the first quarter of the year. Millennials indicated the most concern about a looming recession or market crash, the survey said. Fifty-six percent of millennials indicated they were concerned about the recession, while 51 percent of respondents in the Generation X age group did and 46 percent of Baby Boomers did.

      The survey results add to the growing body of evidence showing Americans are increasingly concerned about a looming recession.

      A Gallup poll released in late September found that 49 percent of Americans thought a recession will come within the next year. That figure is higher than the level of concern expressed before the 2007 recession. Persisting trade tensions, which have led to predictions of slowing global growth from international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, have contributed to consumers’ worries.

      The fears aren’t shocking considering the duration of the economic recovery, BMO Financial Group Chief Economist Doug Porter told Newsweek.

      “Given that this is already the longest U.S. economic expansion on record at more than 10 years, it’s not surprising that many Americans are increasingly concerned about the prospects of a recession. Piling on, there are concerns about the U.S.-China trade war, an inverted yield curve, and volatile financial markets in the past year,” Porter said.

    9. The emperor’$ new bond purchase program?

      The Financial Times
      Opinion Tail Risk
      Fed restarts debt purchases — just don’t call it QE
      US central bank faces another tricky communication challenge
      Joe Rennison
      October 9 2019

      Ten minutes after Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell insisted that the central bank restarting its Treasury purchases was “in no way” the same as the post-financial crisis policy of quantitative easing, one Wall Street analyst sent a note to his clients saying that the new strategy “sure sounds like QE”. He was not the only one.

      The confusion strikes at the heart of the latest communication challenge facing the Fed as it prepares to expand its balance sheet once more.

      The legacy of QE is rooted in economic woe. When the policy was implemented after the 2008 economic crisis, it was specifically designed to lower longer term interest rates and to ease financial conditions. This time is different, said Mr Powell on Tuesday. It should not be taken as a shift in monetary policy. It is not being done to boost the general availability of credit. The US economy, by and large, remains on a firm footing.

  17. These are the proles, for sure. What’s the baseline? 17% are stashing cash today, but it was probably 16% yesterday. And we are talking about people throwing $100 under the couch cushion, not the “people who matter” sticking 2 million in the safe.

    However, there was an article from last week about the ultra wealthy going to cash. THAT was enlightening.

    1. The Financial Times
      Investing in funds
      Investors shift money out of stocks and into safer bonds
      Funds focused on buying US shares suffer third straight week of withdrawals
      FILE – In this Oct. 7, 2019, file photo specialist Dilip Patel, right, work with traders at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Banks led stocks broadly higher on Wall Street in afternoon trading Thursday, Oct. 10, placing the market on track to extend its gains from the day before. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, File)
      Sentiment on Wall Street has been damaged by tit-for-tat trade negotiations, with the S&P 500 index gyrating over the course of the past week © AP
      Joe Rennison in New York yesterday

      Investors pulled cash from stocks and risky corporate debt over the past week, funnelling it into the perceived safety of higher quality bonds, as tit-for-tat trade negotiations damaged sentiment and whipsawed asset prices.

      Funds focused on buying US stocks suffered $6.2bn in outflows for the week ending October 9, the third straight week of withdrawals. US high-yield, or “junk”, bond funds also suffered outflows to the tune of $346m.

    1. “The Wehner mansion is one of the premier historical Mansions in the San Jose. The property is prepped for a full renovation, the interior has been stripped and a lot of the demo work has been completed. Take part in resorting this beautiful mansion back to it’s previous glory. The 1.71 acres has the potential for further development, possible townhouse development please check with the city of San Jose for potential development opportunities. Preliminary drawings for a potential development available upon request.” (emphasis added)

    1. Interesting reads, thanks for sharing. The dearth of under $10k cars seems to be similar to the dearth of under $200k homes. The easy credit and increasingly comfortable attitude of consumers towards debt pushed manufacturers to build increasingly expensive vehicles for those who should have been buying economic vehicles. I’m sure the shift in Americans’ preference to SUVs and trucks will be no big deal. /s

      1. Various things have altered the used car landscape in the last 12 years; credit, and some would say Cash for Clunkers, as well as many more people holding on to their old car longer out of necessity. The graph of age/mileage to value/cost used to be pretty linear after the first few years of depreciation for most cars, but it’s a lot less consistent today.

        As for (big) SUVs, I really don’t “get it” though I know it’s as much a status/ego/image thing as any. But I split the term up to separate out compact SUVs (CUVs) like our Honda CR-V (built on the Civic platform) with AWD which are very common out here versus the unnecessary monuments to testosterone I see everywhere in Texas (Explorer/Escalade/Denali/Every oversized pickup truck with a 6+ inch lift and V8, etc, etc).

        Many of the CUVs offer great value/mileage and usefulness (ignoring all the new luxury/performance entrants at the very high-end), but the “BIG” SUVs just don’t seem to scale so well – they’re not that much bigger on the inside and more costly to own and operate and the value return isn’t anywhere as good (usually) IMHO.

        1. Good summary MGSpiffy. I live in the land of “unnecessary monuments to testosterone”, except for they are very popular with the stay-at-home-mom crown and the cross fit/gym girls down here.

          I remember when I was just starting to date my wife her roommate got engaged to a guy who was in college and worked as a bank teller making a very modest salary. She was from an oil family and she kind of made their relationship contingent on him getting a big truck. As I recall, she said it “just didn’t feel right” getting out of his car and wanted him to have a bigger truck. The price tag on that truck was exorbitant, but the cost to fuel and maintain was even more. I hope she was worth it!

          1. “As I recall, she said it “just didn’t feel right” getting out of his car and wanted him to have a bigger truck.”

            Run Forrest, RUN!

            It’s young pecker-head families with big truck fantasies that have to take out student loans for their children, and then they want their debts forgiven when they figure out that they’ve buried themselves.

          2. Run Forrest, RUN!

            Yeah. Mine wanted a really big house and a sports car. Some of us take a while to learn to Run Like Hell.

  18. CNBC became the latest Narrative-purveyors to delete their comment section, since too many truth-tellers were showing up to call BS on their “Everything is Awesome!” propaganda.

  19. Living in Bend, OR its so funny to hear all the people here just gushing about never declining home values and buying rental properties and not understanding cap rates or anything. It’s amazing, so many went bust here a decade ago as this was one of the hardest hit housing markets in the country. I talked to a lumber trader and he said it’s worse than even reported. I asked one of the local “expert” realtors here (btw there are 3800 real estate licenses in a town of 90,000) and asked “aren’t you worried that these tertiary markets get hit harder on downturns? Lots of second homes?”

    “This market won’t get hit, everyone wants to live here at any price”.

    Yet prices are down 5% from last year already.

    It’s gonna hit hard and gonna get real ugly soon

      1. When I figure it out, I’ll let you know. A smart commercial investor who’s developed a lot of projects here since the 60s told me to keep an eye on % if workers here tied to residential construction. He said when it gets close to 20% it has preceded every other downturn. It’s like 24% now.

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