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Buyers Opinion Is That Prices Are Going To Come Down

A report from the Austin American Statesman in Texas. “Flat home sales last month lowered the temperature a bit in Central Texas’ long-hot housing market, according to new data from the Austin Board of Realtors. Local real estate agents have differing takes on the market, with some reporting slower sales and others saying it’s as strong as ever.”

“‘It seems like it has kind of slowed down,’ said Wende Parks, a broker associate with Moreland Properties in Austin. ‘In a normal market, we would typically see a pickup after Labor Day weekend, after school starts. We didn’t seem to get that pickup. Things are still moving, especially in the luxury market, but I have found recently that the showings have slowed.'”

“Carol Dochen, a local real estate broker, said she agrees with Parks ‘100 percent.’ ‘Typically, if someone is going to put their house on the market midsummer, I would advise them to wait until Sept. 15, because that’s when we see a pickup — from Sept. 15 to Nov. 15,’ said Dochen. ‘But it’s seeming slower than a normal season.'”

“Roxan Coffman, owner of Roxan Coffman Properties in Clarksville, while agreeing that a lack of inventory continues to be an issue, said: ‘Any discussion of slowing of the market is not true.'”

“But Dochen said some buyers she is working with, ‘perceiving the heat is out of the market,’ are taking a wait-and-see approach. ‘They’re looking, but they’re not in a rush,’ Dochen said. ‘They don’t feel that they have to pounce right now. Their opinion is that prices are going to come down.'”

The Daily Trib. “The September housing report from the Highland Lakes Association of Realtors shows close to a 25 percent increase in median prices for homes sold compared to September 2017. The median price of 66 closed sales in Burnet County increased to $320,000 (plus-24 percent) and 55 closed sales in Llano County increased to $340,000 (plus-25.2 percent).”

“While the median price increased, the number of closed sales went down about 3 percent in Burnet County and 16.7 percent in Llano County. Active listings were up in September compared to one year ago: 420 (plus-14.4 percent) in Burnet County and 498 (plus-12.9 percent) in Llano County.”

“The market is slowing down as inventory increased from September to the previous year. Llano County inventory went up to 8.7 months from 7.1 in 2017; Burnet County increased to 6.1 months from 4.9 in September 2017.”

This Post Has 11 Comments
  1. Austin already had the Ebola. Last time I posted something from there it was about 2,000 new shacks unsold.

    ‘The median price of 66 closed sales in Burnet County increased to $320,000 (plus-24 percent) and 55 closed sales in Llano County increased to $340,000 (plus-25.2 percent)’

    The median is a lagging statistic. But the feds completely screwed the pooch by setting the loan limits high in these BFE parts of Texas. The reason they call it so-and-so county is there’s no city to speak of – and no jobs!

    ‘While the median price increased, the number of closed sales went down…The market is slowing down as inventory increased from September to the previous year. Llano County inventory went up to 8.7 months from 7.1 in 2017; Burnet County increased to 6.1 months from 4.9 in September 2017’

    Does this sound like an environment where prices would go up 25% in a year? It’s gotta be new shacks. What happened to the 6 month thing?

  2. The previous thread talked about buyers in Northern Virginia turning up their noses at houses that need updates.” If that’s the case, then I’m pretty sunk. My house is a grandma-finally-died house and would need at least $75K in new bathrooms and a new kitchen, and possibly a new furnace. If I had to sell in the short term, I would have to decide between updating the house and chopping the price to let the new owners do it. I would likely chop the price. Luckily I don’t need to sell in the short term.

    1. Dump it now for less or dump it later for much less.

      DebtDonkeys have been warned that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low-risk premiums.

      Washington, DC Housing Prices Crater 23% YOY As 4 Years Of Housing Inventory Sits In Northern Virginia/Washington DC Area

      https://www.zillow.com/washington-dc-20007/home-values/

      *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    2. $75K in new bathrooms and a new kitchen…

      Which would be money down the drain(s). A used house upgrade might sell for half of what it cost in a flat market. More than what it cost in a rising bubble because of time lapse. Might not be worth anything or worse in a falling market.

  3. “Roxan Coffman, owner of Roxan Coffman Properties in Clarksville, while agreeing that a lack of inventory continues to be an issue, said: ‘Any discussion of slowing of the market is not true.’”

    KEEP BUILDING BOYZ

  4. I’m still amazed how many people around Las Vegas are convinced that once the Raiders move here, house prices are going to increase even faster. On Monday alone, I had two different people tell me that.

    I’d guess that 200 or so people (employed full-time by the team) would actually need to move here and get a home. All those people you see working at stadiums on game day taking tickets, ushering, selling concessions, etc. are temporary workers. Am I missing something?

    1. Ask them why Topeka and Omaha are hot markets?

      Home price appereciation has everything to do with the amount of debt people are allowed to take out. The changes made to borrowing limits in January 2018 is the powerful driver for home prices going up going up for Vegas, Topeka, Omaha, and every other city.

      Raiders is just a narrative.

  5. The Student Loan Debt Crisis Is About to Get Worse

    The next generation of graduates will include more borrowers who may never be able to repay:

    “Student loans have seen almost 157 percent in cumulative growth over the last 11 years. By comparison, auto loan debt has grown 52 percent while mortgage and credit-card debt actually fell by about 1 percent, according to a Bloomberg Global Data analysis of federal and private loans. All told, there’s a whopping $1.5 trillion in student loans out there (through the second quarter of 2018), marking the second-largest consumer debt segment in the country after mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve. And the number keeps growing.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/the-student-loan-debt-crisis-is-about-to-get-worse

    No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here.

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