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Experts Say Now Is A Good Time To Buy Before Prices Surge Again

A weekend topic starting with two reports from 7 News in Australia. “CoreLogic reports that 2599 homes went under the hammer across all capital cities this week, returning a preliminary auction clearance rate of 72.9 per cent. It believes ‘fear of missing out’ is again starting to feature at auctions. ‘With advertised supply remaining low and buyer demand rising, FOMO has once again become a factor in the market as buyers sense some urgency to buy before prices rise further.'”

“Melbourne had 1217 home auctions this week, with preliminary figures showing 73.2 per cent achieved sales, compared with 1242 auctions and final clearance of 74.3 per cent the previous week.”

“First home buyers wanting to get into the market are being told to look to Melbourne’s northern suburbs. New research shows the market has been flooded with cheaper properties over the past six months. There have been price drops in several popular areas. Oak Park has dived almost 9.9 per cent with a median house price of $780,000 and Greensborough has dropped 7.4 per cent with the median at $755,000.”

“Greenvale has dipped 2.4 per cent with a median house price of $712,000. Experts say now it is a good time to buy before prices surge again.”

From CTV News in Canada. “Vancouver’s booming real estate market came crashing down in 2018, but it appears to be recovering faster than expected. ‘There’s been a sharp decline in mortgage rates to about 2.5 per cent in some cases,’ said Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1. ‘You’re also seeing a price decline of 10 per cent, so buyers are finding it an opportune time to get into the market and make that plunge.'”

“Home sales saw a 20.3 per cent drop in 2018 across the province. ‘In 2016, you would have seen many, many, many people buying. Probably a lot of people believing this price increase would go on forever,’ said Bryan Velve, a Vancouver realtor who’s been working in the industry for 35 years. ‘You saw it in condos. They were buying presales and then when the presale was finished, they were selling for a lot more money. That’s not happening today.'”

“Velve said the top end of the market also took a hit. ‘ The luxury market, which relied on foreign buyers for a great deal of their sales, has suffered greatly,’ he said.”

“But Yu thinks the attractiveness of buying could push some renters into the housing market and potentially free up rent spaces. ‘I think it’s an excellent time to get in,’ said Velve. ‘We’ve gone the downward trend for a while. If they can afford it, this is an excellent time.'”

Two reports from Better Dwelling in Canada. “The number of new units launched across Greater Vancouver made a very sharp decline. There were 671 units launched in October, down 31.39% from the month before. This represents a 72.24% decline compared to the same month last year. The number is also 31.39% lower than forecasted for the month. Developers in Greater Vancouver have been cancelling and delaying projects. Most are  waiting for demand to return.”

“Greater Vancouver pre-sales launched in the month sold much fewer units. There were an estimated 302 sales in October, down 14.20% from the month before. This represents a decline of 69.52% from a year before. Vancouver’s pre-sale market is being engineered, but it’s unclear how the dynamic holds. Holding back launches does help remove downward pressure on prices. However, it also means a backlog of future inventory is building. Combine that with existing unabsorbed inventory, and the market needs a flood of new capital to bolster prices.”

“Greater Toronto new home prices are still heading in opposite directions. The benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1,074,791 in October, down 3.6% from last year. Condo apartments went higher to $833,827 in October, up 7.5% from last year. Single-family declines are getting larger, while condo price growth is accelerating.”

“The City of Toronto seems to be exempt from this new home sales bump. There were only 1,754 new home sales in October, down 40.70% from last year. This is also less than half of the sales in October 2017. Breaking it down, condo apartments are where the slowdown is, with 1,734 sales, down 39.97% from last year. Single-family sales represent just 20 of the sales, down 71.01% from last year.”

“Inventory for new homes in Greater Toronto is launching into the stratosphere. There were 19,718 new homes for sale in October, up 5.19% from last year. For context, this is 21.09% higher than October 2017, when it was considered a the tight market. This is the most October inventory since the condo glut of 2015.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “This summer, agent Andre Kutyan counted more than 80 properties listed between $3-million and $6-million in and around the St. Andrew-Windfields neighbourhood south of Highway 401. So, in late September, he slashed the price of this nearly 6,200-square-foot house from $4.998-million to $4.798-million.”

“‘Only about 17 sales have happened in the last six months – less than three sales a month in the area – so you have to be right on the money with price, even aggressive, to attract buyers,’ Mr. Kutyan said.”

The San Jose Spotlight in California. “Silicon Valley has seen massive growth since the 2008 Great Recession, but one local market expert estimates the market is ‘frothy,’ signaling that the region may have finally hit a peak and could begin to slow in the near future. ‘Most of the people from San Francisco, Silicon Valley, think that we’re probably in the top of the cycle,’ said Alexander Quinn, JLL’s director of research for Northern California.”

“Quinn sees several headwinds for Silicon Valley, including the housing and labor shortage, the cost to rent or own space in the region, and construction costs. ‘We go through (gold rushes), we fall on our face, we lose all our money, come back again about 10 years later, and we do it over and over again,’ he said. ‘We’re at kind of a gold rush frothy period right now.'”

From City Journal in California. “California’s housing crisis, particularly in the Bay Area, is notorious and well covered. But a surprising and encouraging piece of news emerged from Oakland recently. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Oakland will produce almost 50 percent more housing units this year than San Francisco—6,800 versus 4,700—though Oakland has half the population and only 40 percent as many jobs as San Francisco.”

“Just as surprising is the jump in Oakland’s housing production: the number of units brought to market in 2019 will be almost 15 times the number completed in 2018 and more than three times the number of units produced between 2013 and 2018 combined. What caused this burst of production? Simple: Oakland told developers that they could build homes.”

From Variety on New York. “The Midtown Manhattan apartment of soon to be not-married actors Christina Hendricks and Geoffrey Arend — they announced their split last month — is now available at $1.25 million. The reduced ask a notable chunk below the too-rosy original $1.4 million price tag and only a bit above the just shy of $1.2 million they paid for the modestly sized if not exactly inexpensive condominium about 4.5 years ago.”

This Post Has 159 Comments
  1. ‘now available at $1.25 million. The reduced ask a notable chunk below the too-rosy original $1.4 million price tag and only a bit above the just shy of $1.2 million they paid for the modestly sized if not exactly inexpensive condominium about 4.5 years ago’

    That would put it right about the peak. Good luck love birds.

    1. Yep. NYC peaked 4.5 years ago.

      And this is not some uber celebrity love nest expensive apartment.

      About the average upper middle class for NYC.

      And, who knows, but I bet they dumped a bunch in improvements.

  2. ‘Vancouver’s booming real estate market came crashing down in 2018, but it appears to be recovering faster than expected’

    Is this sort of boosterism necessary? They never get the facts right. The parabolic peak was late spring 2016, and the detached market did a classic swift bubble reversal. It’s been falling ever since, and Toronto wasn’t far behind.

    ‘more than 80 properties listed between $3-million and $6-million…Only about 17 sales have happened in the last six months – less than three sales a month in the area’

    How many months supply is that, figuring no more shacks come on the market?

      1. There are a lot of places where, if you gave me a house for free under the agreement that I had to live there and could neither rent nor sell the house, I would refuse it. Los Angeles is one, and I know there are many others.

    1. Is this sort of boosterism necessary? They never get the facts right.

      The 96% of media outlets owned by globalist oligarchs are there to influence, not inform.

      1. It’s especially true in Australia. their “obsession” with shack gambling is the national religion. Domain, dozens of websites are basically RE promoters and they don’t even try to hide it. (Much of Canada is the same, look at the majority of Globe and Mail articles).

  3. ‘The benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1,074,791 in October, down 3.6% from last year. Condo apartments went higher to $833,827 in October, up 7.5% from last year. Single-family declines are getting larger, while condo price growth is accelerating’

    This is dishonest as well. Condo prices are heavily influenced by new projects completing and suckers being under contract. We saw this is New York and Miami for years. Prices are up, the REIC would shout, while the majority of news was RE people crying in their beer about price cuts and slow sales.

    The City of Toronto seems to be exempt from this new home sales bump. There were only 1,754 new home sales in October, down 40.70% from last year. This is also less than half of the sales in October 2017. Breaking it down, condo apartments are where the slowdown is, with 1,734 sales, down 39.97% from last year. Single-family sales represent just 20 of the sales, down 71.01% from last year’

    ‘Inventory for new homes in Greater Toronto is launching into the stratosphere. There were 19,718 new homes for sale in October, up 5.19% from last year. For context, this is 21.09% higher than October 2017, when it was considered a the tight market. This is the most October inventory since the condo glut of 2015’

    Oh dear…

    1. Massive housing inventory. And still building. With winter approaching.

      Sales massively slowling.

      Prices slowly dropping. They seem to be sticky…

      Not going to give it away.

      Hey, what exactly is a “recourse loan?”

      I got to bring how much to closing?

      We are victims.

      Tell me more about “Jingle Mail…”

    2. There was a condo developer from Miami on the local West Palm news yesterday who admitted prices had dropped and according to him, they were renting the units they couldn’t sell and waiting for a “new cycle”.

      That was the first negative real-estate reporting I had seen on the local news since the last bust 2007 – 2011.

  4. ‘With advertised supply remaining low and buyer demand rising, FOMO has once again become a factor in the market as buyers sense some urgency to buy before prices rise further.’”

    The sheeple who are stupid enough to trust the corporate media for news and information will be forever inoculated against such misplaced trust, and will probably become red-pilled, once they are financially wiped out by following such mendacious, agenda-driven “advice” from REIC touts and shills.

  5. Australia’s housing boom was predicated on an endless wave of Chinese embezzlers and money-launderers looking to park their ill-gotten gains beyond the reach of Chinese authorities. That ship has sailed, as China’s so-faux economic boom is revealed to be a chimera based on the same fraudulent Keynesian monetary policies and debt-fueled “growth” and malinvestment pursed by central bankers everywhere. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and Chinese grifters that didn’t get out when the getting was good are prolly going to become involuntary organ donors back home instead of coming to the rescue of housing bubbles in Australia or Vancouver.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-braces-unprecedented-massive-default-state-owned-enterprise

      1. I am changing my mind on interest rates. It is rare for people to change their mind on anything. They usually dig in and find evidence to support their pre-conceived notions and plug their ears when anything goes against what they already think. But in this case, I think DJT was right to push Powell to lower rates. I do think we need lower rates because the rate differential is harmful to our manufacturing and other sectors. US manufacturing has been getting harmed the last few years and it coincided with an increase in rates. China flooded the US with cheap capital and that greatly coincided with the housing bubble. As long as other countries are using “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies, rates are going to have to be lower than normal.

        1. It’s a great way to give the economy a short term sugar high, but if they do it enough, they will find themselves up Schitt’s Creek without a paddle.

        2. Exactly. It is hard for people to change their mind but that is exactly why I was against moving interest rates up too fast.

        3. OAM, i couldn’t disagree with you more. Hang over cures only work until they kill the junkie. Longer they drag it out, the worser it gets. I believe raising rates would have a much more positive outcome.

          1. As I said at the time when the interest rates were being raised, it is like a diver who has been deep underwater for a long time. If you try to bring him or her up too fast, you will give her the bends. Our economy did get the bends because the interest rates were being raised too fast particularly when other countries were still cutting rates. Do we need to go back the markets setting interest rates, yes and with all due speed. However, not faster than the diver can endure.

          2. “If you try to bring him or her up too fast, you will give her the bends”

            Agree! But Keep pushing the diver down and his / her head will explode. Im in favor for slowly increasing rates, just not decreasing them. Easy / low interest lending is debt heroine. The current Subprime auto lending delinquencies are a perfect example of how this plays when greedy lenders get hungry and loosen the noose

          3. It’s pretty clear to me that inflation is the end game. Inflation will make the size of the Fed’s balance sheet smaller in relative terms. Without a mechanism to prevent cheap foreign capital from coming in and purchasing real estate, I think you have to have lower rates until other countries start moving their rates upwards. This means we won’t have normal housing prices at the lower and middle end until the demographic changes. It also means DJT will probably get elected and there will probably be crazy ideas (like WeWork) that get capital.

          4. “Im in favor for slowly increasing rates, just not decreasing them.”
            Then we agree. The rate cuts have undone the damage done by moving too fast. The next rate move should be up. We should fight the move to negative rates but labeling the countries which adopt them as currency manipulators and use trade sanctions against them, not by adopting negative rates which do long term damage to economies by encouraging malinvestment.

          5. “It’s pretty clear to me that inflation is the end game.”

            Efforts by the Fed since 2009 to inflate have led to historically low interest rates and little sign of inflation.

            Maybe they will eventually succeed with inflation creation, but so far the results are mixed.

          6. Efforts by the Fed since 2009 to inflate have led to historically low interest rates and little sign of inflation.

            How are you measuring inflation? Asset inflation? Seems like if you account for the housing bubble reflation they have been very successful in generating inflation. Also, wages on the bottom end have been moving up more than for any quintile, largely due to full employment and and aging/sick workforce that is leaving sooner than expected due to health issues. I was worried about inflation when there was QE and there was none. I stopped worrying about it, and so now it makes sense to me that it will return.

          7. “Seems like if you account for the housing bubble reflation they have been very successful in generating inflation.”

            Incorrect. Inflation is an increase in the general price level, as you can learn by opening up any undergraduate level macroeconomics textbook.

            By contrast, blowing up residential real estate prices without commensurately increasing wages is known as bubble creation, not inflation. We saw in the 2007-2009 episode that bubbles deflate, and it’s starting to happen again in many parts of the world, both outside and inside the U.S.

          8. We saw in the 2007-2009 episode that bubbles deflate, and it’s starting to happen again in many parts of the world, both outside and inside the U.S.

            That is the assumption. We shall see housing/equities deflate, or if wages inflate to achieve a “general increase in prices.” In my view, it’s not a binary choice. I think we are going to get a mild adjustment in asset prices with a steady increase in prices. My point about the increase in wages on the lower end is that it support the view that inflation is finally happening.

  6. A weekend topic starting with two reports from 7 News in Australia. “CoreLogic reports that 2599 homes went under the hammer across all capital cities this week, returning a preliminary auction clearance rate of 72.9 per cent. It believes ‘fear of missing out’ is again starting to feature at auctions. ‘With advertised supply remaining low and buyer demand rising, FOMO has once again become a factor in the market as buyers sense some urgency to buy before prices rise further.’”

    – Let’s put this in perspective:
    – “under the hammer” = auction block. These are houses REO due to foreclosure. This is a serious economic condition, and there are almost 2600 of them.
    – No mention of the prices for those houses that did sell. Prices would be lower at auction, but how much lower? Still in the knife-catching phase. Prices haven’t yet dropped enough.
    – About 23% didn’t “clear” the auction, meaning that there were no buyers. Maybe the reserve is still to high?
    – Why are we even mentioning “FOMO”, if not cheerleading? Are these people crazy? “Fear of missing out” on another huge real estate loss as prices continue to revert towards the mean (read move (a lot) lower)?
    “FOMO has once again become a factor in the market as buyers sense some urgency to buy before prices rise further.”
    – Prices are rising when there are property auctions? Really?
    “First home buyers wanting to get into the market are being told to look to Melbourne’s northern suburbs. New research shows the market has been flooded with cheaper properties over the past six months. There have been price drops in several popular areas. Oak Park has dived almost 9.9 per cent with a median house price of $780,000 and Greensborough has dropped 7.4 per cent with the median at $755,000.”
    – “No worries, mate, she’ll be right.”
    “Buckley’s chance you’ve got.”
    “Dingo’s breakfast.”
    This market’s still in the dunny. Struth!

    1. That is how they sell most there.

      ‘Why are we even mentioning “FOMO”

      It’s been a concerted REIC thing since the election. New guy comes in swearing to boost prices, the central bank gets in on it, the media have been banging the drum like crazy.

      But yesterday we read about some Chinese taking multi-million $ loses on buys from years ago. Somebody is a lion. Here’s what I notice the most: year after year, we listened to all these bleeding hearts. We gotta make loans easier so the poor first time buyers can get on the ladder. We gotta build more so prices go down. Then prices sink like a turd in a well and it’s pandemonium! Including psychological warfare by the government and the media to shoe-horn first time buyers (with gubernment gravy BTW) into loans at these California (or higher) prices. The situation would make the NAR blush.

  7. God must love thee wee poor folk$, she made soooo many of ’em! … (808,789 new voters!)

    Pursuit$
    Griffin, Peltz Paying Palm Beach’s Seven-Figure Property Taxes

    Bloomberg |By Tom Metcalf |November 29, 2019

    Florida enclave’$ property levie$ can top $1 million a year
    Finance billionaire$ have recently moved to $unshine $tate

    Florida’s year-round sunshine and lack of a state income tax has helped it lead the nation in attracting new residents, with 808,789 arriving in 2018, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released last month.

    For many of those on the list, the absence of state income tax should more than make up for the size of their property taxes. That’s helped Palm Beach morph from a storied second-home location to a place where high-net-worth individuals now make
    their primary residence. This concentration of some of America’s wealthiest people has supported a clutch of cultural, hotel and restaurant openings. Bill Koch called it “Fanta$y I$land.”

    The names are a Who’s Who of prominent business figures. Dealmaker Nelson Peltz ranks second with a $2.2 million charge followed by $1.4 million for KKR & Co.’s Henry Kravis. President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and adjacent homes ranks eighth with a $979,339 bill, followed by radio personality Howard Stern at $962,385.

    Its cachet has steadily grown since, bolstered by Florida’s mushrooming appeal to figures like Carl Icahn, who is planning to move his home and business to the state next year. Fellow financiers David Tepper and Paul Tudor Jones have already relocated, while Trump made it his primary residence this year.

    Palm Beach’s allure hasn’t been diluted by some notoriou$ resident$. Fraudster Bernie Madoff owned a man$ion on the island and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Ep$tein sexually abused dozens of young girls at his Palm Beach home for years.

    Trea$ure I$land
    Seven Palm Beach homeowner$ pay $14 million in property taxe$.

      1. I will stick with using it, its, itself for a gender-neutral pronoun, e.g. “Caitlyn Jenner decided for itself that it would change its name from Bruce and start wearing makeup and a bra.”

  8. The 150 year$ old Mega.Wanker.Banker acting like a 2020 HB.B ll mini.wanker.non.banker, $ad.

    How Deut$che Bank Drifted Into Its Whirlpool of Woe$

    Bloomberg |By Steven Arons | Nov 30th 2019

    (— With assistance by Yalman Onaran, and Nicholas Comfort)

    1. What’s gone wrong?
    The bank has long been caught in a downward spiral of declining revenue, sticky expenses, lowered credit ratings and rising funding costs. It’s repeatedly tried to reverse the slide, without success. Problems include outdated technology, a talent drain and heavy fines — $18 billion in the decade since the financial crisis — for misconduct. Adverse market conditions including negative interest rates have compounded the homemade difficulties. The bank’s shares lost more than half their value in 2018, and in 2019 they remained down about 90% from their 2007
    2. Why hasn’t it been able to turn itself around?

    It’s been cutting costs to pare down to a more profitable size, but it’s been losing business even more quickly. The investment banking division, once responsible for more than half of revenue, has lost market share to rivals that were quicker to fix balance-sheet and governance weaknesses after the 2008 financial crisis. The issues facing Deutsche Bank are also affecting many other European banks. The European Central Bank is expected to hold intere$t rate$ below zero for year$ to come, meaning revenue at bank retail units is likely to stay depre$$ed. For Deutsche Bank, the situation is made worse by the low share it commands in its fragmented home market, where numerous smaller banks keep margins razor-thin.

    . How would that restore the bank’s health?

    The idea is $imple: $top $pending money on busine$$es that haven’t turned a profit in years and free up funds for profitable units that Sewing hopes to grow. Exiting equities trading and reducing fixed-income trading has left Deutsche Bank with 360 billions euros ($396 billion) worth of assets — a quarter of its total balance sheet — that it no longer wants and has moved into a wind-down unit. That solution is sometimes referred to as a “bad bank.” Capital currently allocated to those assets will be released as they melt off the balance sheet and will then be shifted to higher-earning areas.

    6. How did it come to this?

    Deutsche Bank, which will mark 150 year$ in business in March 2020, is reversing its aggressive growth of the 1990s and 2000s, when the bank expanded rapidly overseas and took greater risks, at one point becoming the world’s largest lender and a top trading firm. Years of expansion and takeovers left the bank with multiple fiefdoms and competing centers of power. Then in the wake of the 2008 crisis, both its business model and its reputation came under attack.

    1. When the first raft of foreclosures swept into N AZ, DB’s name was all over them:

      November 14, 2019
      U.S. fines former Deutsche Bank subprime chief over alleged mortgage fraud

      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-mangione/u-s-fines-former-deutsche-bank-subprime-chief-over-alleged-mortgage-fraud-idUSKBN1XO2IC

      Top Subprime Lenders 2005 – 2007
      Feb. 20, 2008

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119698145380316368

      August 9, 2007

      Morgan Stanley’s Saxon maneuvers to boost subprime

      ‘Maintaining subprime loan programs may be helpful for subprime customers who need to refinance at least $335 billion in loans whose payments are set to jump this year and next, analysts said. That would alleviate some concern that subprime borrowers who obtained the adjustable-rate mortgages in 2005 and 2006 would find loan programs too strict, and default. Saxon is offering financing for up to 90 percent of a home’s value to borrowers who want to “state” rather than prove their income, according to the e-mail. Some big lenders have reduced financing on the same type of loan to 80 percent.’

      “Every day we’re more inundated with pre-qualifications as my competitors are falling off the face of the earth,” said Deborah Cox, a Saxon account executive in Tampa, Florida. “We are going to be one of the last standing.”

      https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0920998320070809

      I worked on a bunch of Saxon shacks.

        1. Money quote:

          “The rise in the Fed’s asset book since Sept. 17 has now reached $315 billion—liquidity repo loans that have gone out and not come back, combined with a $60-plus billion injection so far from “not-QE.” Aside from the attempt to forestall the collapse of Deutsche Bank, which experts assume is a significant part of this operation, just imagine all the new speculative risks the other Wall Street and City of London banks are taking with all this liquidity, now that they have the Fed providing it indefinitely, and they don’t have to maintain the interbank lending market themselves. In addition, they know it’s being kept secret and both media and Congress are ignoring it.”

          1. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked at about $4.5T. Quantitative tightening ran it down to about $3.75T, and this latest bout of “quantitative teasing” has pushed it back up to $4T. But it’s still below the peak.

          2. All the Fed is doing is enabling worse and worse behavior by the banks. It’s like a junkie who overdoses then goes to the hospital and gets a shot of Narcan, then subsequently shoots up an even bigger dose of heroin while still in the care of said hospital, overdoses again, gets saved again, then decides “hey, this is fun and they’re always there for me,” so starts using two needles at a time, then three, never leaving the hospital again.

        2. Yes. It is what I have been saying, the Fed is trying to prop up the world not the US. Globalism counted on the US to be willing to reduce it’s standard of living. A president who is putting the US first is messing up the plan. Even climate change is being renamed to save globalism. If only the US would give up its competitive advantage of abundant fossil fuels the EU might be competitive. Come on isn’t it worth paying twice as much for electricity to keep Merkel in office?

          1. Now for anyone out there who is now yelling climate change or whatever is their newest name for the Globalist’s invention. Click on the link below, then click on the “big picture”. It will take you to a graph showing the last 400,000 plus years of climate history. Do you really see anything that stands out about the present temperatures? That is why the AGW crowd only wants to talk about the last 150 years.

            http://climate4you.com/

          2. This is where I disagree Dan. Lower rates will continue to make the transition away from oil to EVs easier and quicker because the cost of capital will be lower. In a world of low returns (because of low interest rates), things like solar/wind/EVs pencil out much easier. Even building houses is cheaper with lower interest rates. If builders switch to building more townhouses/rowhouses, you would get some more supply.

            I am beginning to think the only way Americans are going to be able to afford housing in the future is if they almost completely cut out vehicle expenses. Indeed, in our complex (which is in the due diligence phase of our buyers right now) we offer an eco transit pass. Those tenants who are always doing better financially are those without a vehicle. It’s just one less thing to pay for.

      1. This entire situation, the globe over, is due to central bankers and their cheap money shenanigans. You could call it what it is – predatory lending. They got bailed out and subsequently carpet-bombed the earth with easy credit. It’s all blowing up now.

  9. “Experts Say Now Is A Good Time To Buy Before Prices Surge Again”
    – So much for the “experts.”
    – Summary comments:
    – The global housing bubble is deflating, with some countries further along the (downward) trajectory than others. For example Australia and Canada peaked years ago and prices are falling fast. The U.S. is a little behind the curve, with price drops just getting underway. Bubbles always pop. Humpty Dumpty.
    – RE agents globally seem to think that prices should always be high, even though 1) first time shelter buyers get priced out (bad), and 2) we’re in serial bubble economics mode with the sociopath central banker policies (even more bad). Cheerleading abounds, with the resulting economic hardship or ruin when a hapless buyer makes a purchase as prices continue down. It seems like they should be legally responsible for any losses to the buyer. Clearly a conflict of interest here. It’s good to know that regulations and oversight are strong here so that nothing bad could ever happen.
    – Housing bubbles feel good on the way up, but are an economic disaster on the way down. We’ve seen this twice now in the 21st century. This is a self-feeding doom-loop, since housing and residential investment are such a large part of the global economy now. Many industries are going to be affected by the downturn. Unsophisticated/unaware buyers can and will be financially ruined by purchasing at this juncture. This is all due to globalism and a reduction in good jobs; RE has replaced a large chunk of the global economy, even though it’s not creating wealth, but rather transferring it to the elites, with impoverishment for the 99%.
    – This is only going to get worse as people lose their jobs during the upcoming global recession, which I expect will be recognized as such by Q1, ’20.
    – Stock market losses in 2020 will only exacerbate the housing downturn. Yes, dear readers, corp. earning will eventually matter, and they’re already trending lower.
    – Blame falls squarely on the central banks. Free markets are essentially self-regulating. Central banking is massive intervention and ownership of the global economy; it’s the epitome of central planning. We all know how that worked out for Socialist countries throughout history. Hint: it’s never worked out.

    1. “The U.S. is a little behind the curve, with price drops just getting underway.”

      It seems like just yesterday when the U.S. last reached a bubble peak, circa 2007, even though it was actually over a decade ago. And we are on the same path as before, with an increasing influx of subprime mortgages funding the remaining buyers, and appreciation rates in many local markets slowing to create the illusion that housing prices have reached a permanently high plateau.

      It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the denial stage of the housing bubble stages of grief to morph into the anger stage this time around the block.

      1. Business
        Risky Mortgage Bonds Are Back and Delinquencies Are Piling Up
        By Claire Boston
        November 4, 2019, 3:00 AM PST
        – Lured by the bonds’ 5% coupons, investors are scooping them up
        – Bonds aren’t seen as problem now but reveal appetite for risk

        The subprime mortgage-backed bond may be dead in America a decade after it helped trigger the global financial crisis, but a security with some of the same high-risk characteristics is starting to take off.

        It’s called the non-qualified mortgage — basically a loan granted to borrowers whose checkered financial record made them ineligible for conventional mortgages. Lenders have bundled more than $18 billion worth of these loans into bonds this year that they then sold to investors, a 44% increase from 2018 and the most for any year since the securities became common post-crisis.

        1. Subprime mortgages, subprime auto loans, and gems like State of Illinois. And yet people think that bonds are still the safe half of the portfolio. No wonder everyone is piling into stocks.

          1. Sheep willingly lining up for the coming slaughter must be a beautiful sight to Wall Street yacht owners’ eyes.

    2. “This is only going to get worse as people lose their jobs during the upcoming global recession, which I expect will be recognized as such by Q1, ’20.”

      Ahem…

      Daimler to cut thousands of jobs worldwide by 2022
      29.11.2019
      Mercedes-Benz worker (picture-alliance/dpa/S. Kahnert)
      German carmaker Daimler said the job cuts would help fund “large investments” needed to transition to electric cars.

      German carmaker Daimler announced Friday it would slash at least 10,000 jobs worldwide to help cut costs as it rolls out electric vehicles.

      1. German carmaker Daimler announced Friday it would slash at least 10,000 jobs worldwide to help cut costs as it rolls out electric vehicles.

        Their ICE cars are already utterly unaffordable. Who is going to but electric cars that cost 50+% more?

        1. Don’t forget the cuts from Audi too:

          Audi to cut 9,500 jobs to fund electric car push
          BBC
          26 Nov 2019

          Carmaker Audi is to cut 9,500 of its 61,000 jobs in Germany between now and 2025 to make more money available for electric vehicles and digital working.

        2. The globalist “climate change” crowd are banging the electric vehicle drum as loudly as possible, and it seems that industry is marching in lockstep. Not until they make it illegal for me to drive my ICE will I part with it. In fact, when Toyota announces their last ICE model year built for the US, I plan to buy one, perhaps 2, mothballing the 2nd. There are too many poor people who could never dream of affording an EV, so there’s no way they will outlaw the use of ICEs, they’ll just slowly but surely fade away as no new replacements are available.

          1. There are too many poor people who could never dream of affording an EV

            Most poor people shouldn’t have a car anyway, but society is designed around it. They are huge money pits. AAA estimates the average annual cost of vehicle ownership is $9k after taking into account all costs (e.g. insurance, fuel, maintenance, payments, depreciation, taxes, etc.).

            Buying a used EV as a commuter car is going to be a no-brainer for many people because maintenance and fuel costs are so incredibly low.

          2. Last I checked the EPA CAFE standard will be 54 mpg in 2025. Some are saying that electric cars will pull the average up and I think this is why the industry is marching in lockstep, because they won’t be able to meet the CAFE numbers if they don’t. I also suspect that new ICE car prices will climb steeply to “level the playing field” for electric cars. This of course will mean that car sales will tank, as an “entry level car” will cost $30K instead of $15K.

            I could see a cottage industry appear that would keep old ICE cars running, though I expect there will be a point in time when gasoline is finally banned and those cars will become paper weights.

          3. Electric car cost/mile is 38% higher than internal combustion vehicles, directly attributed to the fact that they continued running long after electric vehicles fall apart.

            Why pay 38% more for transportation?

          4. We don’t have the electrical generation and distribution infrastructure in place in most of the country to support a plurality of EVs and probably won’t for more than 20 years.

            The pinching of the ICE and/or fuel supply is not intended to drive people to EVs, at least in SoCal. It’s intended to drive people to mass transit. There’s going to have to be a huge cultural change in the US for that to work.

          5. From imdb.com.
            “Mad Max” (1979) – Plot summary:
            “Taking place in a dystopian Australia in the near future, Mad Max tells the story of a highway patrolman cruising the squalid back roads that have become the breeding ground of criminals foraging for gasoline and scraps.
            —Cole Matthews

            – BTW, the criminals were allegedly homeless Australians that were foreclosed upon, lost their houses, and became homeless nomads. At least, that’s what I heard.

          6. “Most poor people shouldn’t have a car anyway”

            Sounds kinda judgmental, don’t you think? I’m not against building a carless infrastructure for low-wage workers, e.g. affordable housing within easy walking/biking/bus distance of low-wage jobs and a grocery store.

            But the poor shouldn’t be deprived of vehicles — that’s often the only way for a poor person to move up in the world. To drive to community college, to drive to a better job, to allow both parents to work, etc.

          7. “Buying a used EV as a commuter car is going to be a no-brainer for many people because maintenance and fuel costs are so incredibly low.”

            Oh, yeah, a $10,000+ battery replacement is a no-brainer. LOLZ.

          8. But the poor shouldn’t be deprived of vehicles — that’s often the only way for a poor person to move up in the world.

            Admittedly, I do think it is judgmental. But most poor people are kept poor because they spend too much on vehicles (and housing). The average cost of a new vehicle in the US (ICE vehicles, mind you) is $37k.

            I like this guy’s rule of thumb:

            The 1/10th Rule For Car Buying Everyone Must Follow

          9. We don’t have the electrical generation and distribution infrastructure in place in most of the country to support a plurality of EVs

            EV drivers do more than 80% of their charging at home. The infrastructure is already there. I have been driving for almost 1 year now and I’ve used a Tesla supercharger about 5 times total and all on road trips over 300 miles.

          10. Oh, yeah, a $10,000+ battery replacement is a no-brainer. LOLZ.

            Well it depends on what EV you are going with. Teslas are getting less that 10% degradation on 160k miles. If you look at Tesloop they have all their data on total repairs of their fleet vs other ICE cars and they break it down nice and neat and how significantly less expensive it was for them to run an EV fleet at hundreds of thousands of miles. I don’t think I’ll replace my battery. I started with 310 range and now with upgrades its at 325. So if I have 80% capacity at 500k miles, I’ll still have 270 miles of range, which is more than a new Chevy Bolt.

          11. The pinching of the ICE and/or fuel supply is not intended to drive people to EVs, at least in SoCal. It’s intended to drive people to mass transit. There’s going to have to be a huge cultural change in the US for that to work.

            Years ago I had jury duty in downtown San Diego. There was an “express” bus I could ride from Escondido to downtown. It took an hour. I was released early that morning. There was no express bus back to Escondido until late that afternoon, so I hopped on a regular bus. It took 2 and a half hours to get home. The next day I drove down and paid to park at Horton Plaza. I was also sent home early that day. I didn’t have to go back after that.

          12. When my nabe of SFH on 0.15 acre was built during the Cold War, all the houses had single lane driveways intended for one, maybe two cars. Now most of the houses have 3-5 vehicles each: beaters, trucks, used Beemers, and of course white vans.

          13. There is not enough cobalt to make a transition to all EV vehicles

            I think that the plan is for only the UMC to have cars. Everyone else can take the bus, no matter how inconvenient it is.

            The automobile industry is going to shrink, big time.

          14. There is not enough cobalt to make a transition to all EV

            “The recent price spikes for lithium and cobalt have resulted in many battery producers working to reduce the overall material needed per kWh and additionally focus on less cobalt-intensive chemistries. Consequently, NCM chemistries have become automotive OEM’s preferred technology in recent years. In the last few months, NCA technologies have pulled ahead; Tesla, which used the NCA technology for its Model S, now deploys a higher performing version for the Model 3 with even less cobalt than an NMC 811 and is working towards reducing the volume of cobalt contained in future batteries.”

            McKinsey & Company, a Tale of Two Commodities

          15. It took 2 and a half hours to get home.

            A few years ago Musk made a comment that had city planners and public transit advocates in a tizzy, but I think he was basically correct:

            “I think public transport is painful. It sucks. Why do you want to get on something with a lot of other people, that doesn’t leave where you want it to leave, doesn’t start where you want it to start, doesn’t end where you want it to end? And it doesn’t go all the time.”

            He is saying that he favored individual transit, and I think he is correct. In the greater Salt Lake area, even the local transit authority is now piloting uber-like, on-demand, point-to-point transit to complement the bus/light rail/train services. It solves the “last mile” problem and the long wait time solution. I think public Uber transit services run on EVs will in the end replace a lot of bus that often are running on fixed routes and empty. Of course there are some main artery lines, like bus rapid transit, and light rail lines, where there is a critical mass of people. Those arteries will always make sense. But then you need to supplement with electric scooters or uber-like solutions for the last mile.

          16. Exactly how are people living in apartments without garages going to charge their cars? Run a cord 200 yards into the street and hope that some meth head doesn’t steal it to sell for copper. No I am not going to get up early every morning and go to the charging station and wait.

            EV are fine for wealthy people in warm climates but not for apartment dwellers in cold climates. I don’t see it working for non-homeowners/home renters.

          17. I don’t see it working for non-homeowners/home renters.

            Works just fine for us and we are renters in an apartment complex. I will take a picture so you can see if I get a spare moment.

            Obviously chargers for multi-family will need to be built. But it will happen. The apartment complex in our portfolio also has expanded EV chargers. It’s becoming more of a selling point for leasing as more people have battery electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids.

    3. “Experts Say Now Is A Good Time To Buy Before Prices Surge Again”

      Buy at the pinnacle peak before prices make a new peak? Really….

  10. ‘With advertised supply remaining low and buyer demand rising, FOMO has once again become a factor in the market as buyers sense some urgency to buy before prices rise further.’

    Why do real journalists always assume that prices will rise? There are historic examples, such as that of Japanese condominiums from 1990 through 2002, when prices continuously fell for over a decade to nearly 50% below the peak, only to never fully recover. If you bought in 1990, you would still be waiting to fully recover your losses, even before considering HODLing costs, while staring into the maw of another crash.

    It turns out that real estate doesn’t always go up!

    Japan’s housing market is now slowing again
    GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE NEWS TEAM | August 26, 2019
    House prices in Tokyo rose by a miniscule 0.94% y-o-y in Q2 2019

    The average price of existing condominiums in Tokyo rose by a meagre 0.94% during the year to Q2 2019, a slowdown from a y-o-y growth of 3.89% in the previous year. During the latest quarter, existing condo prices fell by 2.34%. The average price of new condos in Tokyo dropped 1.65% y-o-y in Q2 2019, a sharp slowdown from growth of 9.71% a year earlier.

    1. In Japan, with its dismal demographics, home prices increased almost ten per cent last year and are giving back less than 2 percent this year and that is encouraging?

  11. Creepy Oligopoly tech giants are steadily expanding their definition of “hate speech” to include anything that is non-Narrative compliant. Remind me again why we have a First Amendment if free speech is being outlawed at every turn by the elites and their media Dobermans.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/11/it-begins-facebook-ramps-up-attacks-on-conservative-content-is-now-deleting-first-lady-melania-trump-photos-calls-it-hate-speech/

    1. Delete all social media and don’t shop at Amazon.

      YouTube is the last and only big tech owned media source I use.

      I use the search function on archive dot is to read paywalled articles published by real journalists, i.e. the New York Times for free.

      Anyone who subscribes to the Washington Post, or reads their website without an adblocker, is funding the destruction of this country by globalists. Stop giving them clicks, stop giving them money, it’s not that complicated…

      1. I do not agree with her solutions but it is important to remember that at one time the left was spearheading the opposition to globalization while many conservatives were fooled by the Bush family into supporting it. Unfortunately, I think Obama did to the left what for years the Bush family did to the right. He convinced most of the left to support a system which is economically destroying them. The left should be supporting Trump on many issues instead of opposing him.

        Just a reminder from twenty years ago:
        https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/wto-20-years-battle-seattle-191127105414387.html

    1. Recessions have a way of taking Wall Street investors and the MSM writers who chronicle them by surprise.

      I’ll do my best to keep y’all informed if I notice one sneaking up on unsuspecting bulls.

      1. Professor, ten percent corrections catch everyone by surprised. Severe recessions which cause 50 percent corrections do not catch Wall Street by surprise but it does not tell the public. When you get bullish I will worry. Lol

        1. “When you get bullish I will worry.”

          good ob$ervation, who will blink 1$t, Uncle Warren with $128,000,000,000.86 ca$h or Uncle Grinch?

      2. Real Vision Finance has been predicting a recession for a long time. Problem is, recessions are a long time coming. My guess is that the recession is going to hit — hard and suddenly — right after the 2020 election.

          1. To be fair, the last recession was 10 years ago. I was just listening to another gloom and doomer who thinks that paper money will be ok for another 2-3 years. And then we’re going to have Wiemar-style inflation.

          2. Yes, but garden variety recessions are over very fast and more people are employed a year later. I do think 2021 may have a recession but most economists are predicting a very shallow recession, it will not even impact the 2022 election.

    2. Yes, the U.S. is not in recession yet, but I estimate will be by Q1 or as late as Q2 ’20. The stock market is the “Icarus” market, IMHO.

      Note that the Atlanta Fed “GDP Now” website had Q4 GDP estimate at 0.4%. Then, “magically”, it “revised” the estimate up to 1.7% on 11/27/19. Check out the website. I call that a) a crappy model and b) a “stick save”. Must keep the “consumer” spending through the critical holiday shopping season. BTW, this is largely funded via debt. Note that revolving credit rates are now generally well north of 15%, while savings deposits are generally well south of 2%. The house (banks) always win.

      BTW, the upward GDP revision was apparently due to inventory build, which is not good w/ sales declining. The business credit cycle hasn’t been eliminated, but they’re sure trying. Please keep in mind that without gov’t. cheese (aka gov’t. spending, transfer payments, SNAP, etc.), GDP would be negative for most, if not all of the period since the GFC, but that’s not part of the narrative, and so you’ll not hear about it in the MSM. Potemkin economy via artificial stimulus and not organic growth, IMHO.

      1. It was not magic it was strong data which was in part reflecting the end of the GM strike. The Atlanta Fed estimate is robotic it just reflects the actual data as it comes out. As soon as Boeing fixes the damage caused by its $9 an hour outsourced “software engineers” manufacturing in this country will be quite strong.

      2. Please keep in mind that without gov’t. cheese (aka gov’t. spending, transfer payments, SNAP, etc.), GDP would be negative for most, if not all of the period since the GFC

        It still bothers me that government spending is included in GDP.

  12. It’s been a decade since the HBB community lost a long-time poster who went by the name OlympiaGal, and I am still feeling the loss. It’s strange how connected you can sometimes become to someone you never physically met; I guess that reflects her writing skills. I always suspected she might be a distant relative of my wife, and regret that I never had the chance to ask her.

    1. “It’s strange how connected you can sometimes become to someone you never physically met…”

      Hehe…that’s an emotional affair!

    2. Whata gal!!!

      (on a side note to yer provided link dear Professor, years back eye left a short story of one of my Uncles in Kansas who passed on such a site. x3 days ago, eye found in my email, a reminder of his passing, & thee oppoortunity to purcha$e flower$ or other such $ales pitche$ of remembrance. That was very con$iderate of them. Something to talk about with my Amish cousins, in Ohio.)

    3. I feel that Professor. If the Hbb is ever up for an oceanside meet and greet, this OC-based red-piller of defenseless minors will be happy to make the drive to hoist a libation in OlyGals honor, and generally strategize about the best ways to kill this monster we call debt normalization. I’d even drive all the way down to SD to tap the collective expertise of my esteemed fellow posters.

  13. From Richard Fernandez at PJ Media, about global rebellion spreading against the corrupt elites:

    “The media are missing the biggest story since the fall of the Soviet Union. Something strange is upending the world and it’s almost as if they’ve made up their minds to be the last to know.”

  14. Hello! It’s been a few years!! How are you, Ben? How’s the crew? What’s new, Blue? Hey Prof! Miss Oly too. What a voice.

    Just stopping by to say hello. We’re still in Florida and making plans to return Rochester, NY area. We’ve been talking about it for over a decade and now we’re both close to being certified in NYS… it’s time. Doing a few things to the house before we list. We’re targeting moving over the summer, sooner if possible. The job search has already started.

    The kids are doing well; my jobs a’ight; wifey is chllin’; my neighbors are still annoying; and I’ve wasted two years of my life playing fortnite. Started a doctorate but quit… $3k lesson to realize writing papers sucks. I’m fairly sure I knew that in 2nd grade, but I had to know for sure.

    Everything else is steady. Just want to go home and be with my fam and friends and close the Florida chapter.

      1. Leave? I left NY in 2005. The plan was always to come back quick but life happened (kids, masters degrees, and so on…). I’ve been back every year for something or another. Most notably a few years ago to hike Mt. Marcy with my buds for my 40th and a band reunion last summer. I have friends and family in Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Canandaigua, Farmington, Skaneateles, Ithaca, Utica, Albany, Goldens Bridge, Dobbs Ferry, Gardiner, Queens, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Long Island… basically everywhere except the southern tier.

        I know the winters suck the taxes are high… all that. I’m done being young and just want to be a townie with my crew

        1. “…band reunion last summer.”

          What do you play?

          Since you last posted here regularly, I talked my lovely wife into allowing me to purchase a guitar. I am hoping to leave behind a few songs before my time on the planet is up.

        2. “I know the winters suck”

          I live in Portland but originally from Ohio. My friends from Ohio still complain about snow and cold. If it’s just cold I get it. But, as I age and think about how cultures outside the US (and, outside of the US West, and maybe some in Minnesota and Wisconsin) use the winter, I maintain that if I ever move back I’d use the snow as an excuse to get out and snowshoe or cross-country ski.

    1. Rumor ha$ it, that NY has di$covered a humongous $ALT depo$it! $upposedly, it sits directly under every home.moaner in the entire $tate!

      Welcome back!

      1. $ALT depo$it!

        In a place like Rochester, he’s gonna need it. And snow tires. Good to see you’re doing well, Muggy. No big events here either. Same old same old. Workin’ the job, building equity, putting by for retirement…

    2. Hey, Muggy! I’m new to HBB but living in ROC for over 20 years. I don’t know what price range or area you’re looking, but house prices are ridiculous here. Taxes are insane now too. My spouse and I have been watching the RE market since 2017, waiting for things to go down enough to make buying feasible, versus renting. Although Morgan Communities bought up a lot of rental properties over the last couple years. After their federal indictment, everything then transferred to Morgan Properties in PA. It’s still the same management BS, though. We’re living in a property for several years that was bought by Morgan a couple years ago. It’s difficult finding properties not bought up by them, depending on the area. Good luck with returning to ROC!

      1. Sorry to hear that. I went to HS with one of the Morgans.

        Probably 3/2 in $250 range. I’ll be bringing my South Florida equity and terrible driving habits.

        1. That’s our range and preference too, as it is for most ROC buyers right now. Bidding wars keep driving prices up for anything decent. Otherwise at that price it’s a sketchy flip or a gut job. Neither my spouse or I can deal with a fixer upper but we also like 80s/90s decor. None of that Millennial gray crap. Prices are getting up around $300K or more for the areas most want to buy in. Not to mention taxes have gotten worse even for areas that used to be cheaper. Hopefully house prices start going down soon.

          1. Not to mention taxes have gotten worse even for areas that used to be cheaper.

            Shack prices might go down, but taxes never will due to the insatiable demands of public unions and the ever-growing bloc of dependency voters.

          2. OneAgainstMany, keep in mind ROC is an economically depressed area and has been since the 90s. Its largest employer – a med center – doesn’t pay as well as it should. Healthcare costs and taxes are very high. The median income is about $30-35K. So a $250K house is about 8x median income.

          3. The median income is about $30-35K. So a $250K house is about 8x median income.

            Thanks for the reference point. I didn’t realize median income was so low.

          4. OneAgainstMany, you’re welcome. Many don’t realize how economically depressed ROC is, as is much of upstate NY, the further you get from NYC. Rochester is doing better than nearby cities like Buffalo and Syracuse (a total sh*thole where I spent the first 18 years of my life). Another reference point, about taxes, a $200K home’s yearly taxes can be around $7-10K or more here, in the livable suburbs, which eats away at what a buyer can spend as well. ROC’s housing stock is also very old. The actual city of Rochester is unlivable. Even the nicer Park Ave area, the houses there are expensive yet all early 19th century. They need tons of work or are total teardowns. That’s where we owned our first and last house, for 10 years, and it was a nightmare. The current livable suburbs don’t allow new development so any new construction is way out in the exburbs where no one really wants to live. In the nice suburbs where people want to live, houses are very old. It’s pockets of early 19th century to mid-century. The newest builds are typically 1970s/1980s. You’re lucky to find anything newer than that.

    3. “Started a doctorate but quit… $3k lesson to realize writing papers sucks.”

      The nice thing about dropping out of a PhD program is that you tend to be very employable. My guess is that most of the folks who dropped out of mine ended up making more money than I have.

      1. Word is that they also treat their code monkeys poorly.

        This “code monkey” is treated quite well, thank you!

        With 750k employees I’m sure there are a broad range of experiences available. So far, I’ve not observed anyone being treated poorly. /shrug

    1. Yes but it doesn’t mean that Bloomberg does not suck too. However, I would rather he spend his time and money running as opposing to giving it to anti-gun or AGW groups.

  15. But…but I don’t understand. Comrade Beto and his fellow Bolsheviks said if we confiscate AR-15s and AK-47s from people who bought them legally, that will end “gun violence.” Mexico has some of the strictest gun control laws in the world, yet its cartels are heavily armed and engage in pitched gun battles with security forces and each other. You mean to tell me that criminals don’t obey gun control laws that leave the populace defenseless?

    I am shocked, shocked! to discover this. Or maybe Comrade Beto and his ilk have ulterior motives in disarming the populace, especially those kulaks most likely to resist collectivist “redistribution of the wealth.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/14-killed-bloody-gunfight-northern-mexico-191201031437471.html

    1. ‘The government of the northern state of Coahuila said state police clashed with a group of heavily-armed attackers in pick-up trucks in the small town of Villa Union, about 65 kilometres (40 miles) southwest of the border city of Piedras Negras.’

      In the 90’s I spent a Thanksgiving in Piedras Negras. It’s remarkable how much has changed. But sure, open up those borders! These cartels are some of the worst people alive.

  16. “threatening to burn alive any civilians who post online video of how brazen they have become.”

    Sounds like a terrorist group to me.

    1. “With advance warning there is no deception, you pieces of shit. Anyone who is seen playing reporter we will f**king destroy them. And if they’re lucky we will burn them alive. We are the Troops of Hell. Death fears us and respects us as it should”, says the message that circulates through readings on WhatsApp and other networks.

      Bad hombres, indeed. With due respect to Comrade Pelosi and the DNC, I don’t want them in my country or my community.

      1. It strikes me that someone with the desire to risk their life to “play reporter” could be much more effective identifying their leaders and “play sniper” instead. Put then on the defensive. That would be a real service to their country.

        1. “play sniper” instead. Put then on the defensive. When the Resistance to the Nazis tried that in various parts of occupied Europe, the enemy simply resorted to collective punishment, i.e., “one of ours gets killed near your village, we come and burn alive everyone in that village. Every. Single. One.”

          1. It seems there were even cases of villages with no resistance efforts that were burned down by the Nazis.

            Article
            Martyred Village
            The visible remains of Nazi brutality.
            November 7, 2018

          2. The Morgenthau Plan, The Morgenthau Boys and the top-secret JCS 1067 Directive, signed by President Truman are also good reading. The German civilian population was blamed for military atrocities and many were slowly starved to death on minimal rations. It’s kind of like saying we are directly responsible for Obama’s escalated drone attack campaign that killed more civilians than militants.

          3. “play sniper” instead. Put then on the defensive. When the Resistance to the Nazis tried that in various parts of occupied Europe, the enemy simply resorted to collective punishment, i.e., “one of ours gets killed near your village, we come and burn alive everyone in that village. Every. Single. One.”

            I’m skeptical that Mexican druglords/warlords have the same power as the Nazis did at that time. Yet.

            But yeah, my relatives in Poland got a taste of that back in the day, too.

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