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Some Are Selling For Less Than What They Paid Several Years Ago

A report from the New York Times. “For thousands of luxury condo owners in New York who have received deep tax breaks for a decade or more, the taxman is coming. The end of those benefits, through an expired program known as 421-a, could not have come at a worse time for many sellers, who are faced with mounting taxes and stiff competition in a weak market. Some are selling for marginal returns or even less than what they paid several years ago.”

“New York is also in one of the toughest markets for sellers in years, said Lindsay Barton Barrett, an agent with Douglas Elliman. ‘People are sensitive to everything now,’ Barrett said of buyers, who have ample choice and might be leery of buying a unit that used to have much lower carrying costs. ‘It’s almost this sense of unfairness — that the person who came before them got this benefit, and they’re not,’ she said.”

From WKRN in Tennessee. “Greater Nashville home sales continue to increase at a faster pace than the national average, according to RE/MAX. Though the market is cooling off slightly, it’s still competitive. Erin Krueger at Compass Real Estate, says the numbers are great, but according to Jeff Tucker, an economist with Zillow, compared to years prior, the market is slowing. ‘This was a big cooling down year for Nashville, as Nashville is coming off some of the fastest home growth in the country,’ Tucker said. Tucker says that’s mostly in part to a rising inventory.”

“As for 2020, we’re still seeing all-time highs for Nashville prices, looking out over the next year experts think home price growth will keep slowing but not go into free fall or into the negatives.”

The Mail Tribune in Oregon. “Home sales continue to tick up across Jackson County. The numbers show that housing prices have started to decline a bit this fall in some local areas compared to last year, although prices overall are much higher across the county than they were five years ago. The median price of an existing home fell in Talent, Phoenix and Jacksonville between August and November compared to the same time last year, according to the data.”

“Existing homes spent 48 days on the market this year compared to 39 last year. New homes spent an average of 58 days on the market in 2018 compared to 99 days this year. Many of his clients are coming from metro areas such as Seattle or Portland, said Scott Lewis, Realtor with John L. Scott Ashland and former president of the Southern Oregon Multiple Listing Service. ‘They get the high quality of life here, great weather — plus, flush toilets and electricity,’ he joked. ‘We’ve got it all.'”

The Colorado Sun. “There’s not enough new housing, and rising prices are still an issue, said Matthew Leprino, managing broker at The Ridgewood Company and spokesman for the Colorado Association of Realtors. But the industry is seeing appreciation slow. He’s hopeful that 2020 could become a buyer’s market — even in Boulder, where the median sales price hit $629,000 in October.”

“‘Boulder just got so expensive, especially due to the limit-growth initiatives that they have there. But now Broomfield is seeing that spillover while Boulder isn’t getting more expensive,’ he said. ‘Our spokesperson up in Boulder, Kelly Moye, actually forecast that in 2020, it’s going to be a buyers market in Boulder County, and that’s the first time since 2012.'”

From Mansion Global on Washington. “A futuristic home, dreamed up by a diamond heiress in the town of Tenino, Washington, came back on the market Friday with a price cut of $5.1 million. First listed for $11 million in August 2018, the 8,462-square-foot pad belongs to Rebecca Oppenheimer, heiress of the international diamond corporation De Beers. It went through a $2.11 million price cut this past August before further dropping to $5.9 million.”

“The two-story eco-friendly home has four bedrooms, and is situated on an 82-acre piece of land. Ms. Oppenheimer purchased the multi-parceled land for $6 million, said Michael Morrison, the listing agent. After dropping to nearly half of its original asking price, Ms.Oppenheimer hopes potential buyers are motivated to make a move. ‘She wants to get it a good steward for the property. It’s not so much about profit,’ Mr. Morrison said.”

The East Bay Times in California. “They’re the silent scourge of Fremont — open house signs that clutter street corners and sidewalks every weekend, sometimes before dawn and well into the evening hours. Now, after years of hearing residents complain, city officials plan to clamp down on real estate agents who plant the signs in strategic locations to get a leg up on the competition. ‘It’s out of control,’ Fremont Councilman Raj Salwan said. ‘To be the big guy in town, you’ve got to have a million signs, that’s what’s happening.'”

“Although the city has its share of anti-blight rules, when it comes to open house signs it might as well be the Wild West. There are no rules limiting the number of signs a real estate agent can put up, and officials say a few of them are taking advantage of the vacuum. The result has been a house-marketing arms race of sorts, with some agents calling out others for making them look bad.”

“Wayne Morris, Fremont’s deputy community development director, said the city likely will limit the number of signs allowed per intersection and per for-sale parcel, set a maximum distance between a sign and home, and establish rules to keep signs away from historic buildings such as Mission San Jose. ‘You look at historic Mission San Jose, it’s terrible, the whole intersection is littered with signs,’ Salwan said.”

“Mattie Wei, a realtor in Fremont who has also received some city-issued fines for misplaced signs, empathizes with residents who think the signs can be a ‘nuisance,’ but said she has no choice but to put up about 20 per home to compete with other realtors who are placing dozens more. ‘Our listings are next to each other, and if I place five signs, what do you think my seller will say to me? ‘Mattie, you don’t have enough signs,’ she said.”

From Los Angeles Magazine in California. “A new UCLA Anderson School quarterly forecast predicts that while California’s economic growth will hit a speed bump next year, the state will continue to outpace the rest of the country, the L.A. Times reports. ‘This is still above the U.S. rate,’ writes forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg. ‘While we expect further slowing of the California economy as part of the U.S. economic growth slowdown in 2020, this differential is expected to persist.'”

“As is often the case, much of the good financial news doesn’t necessarily apply to Los Angeles. While most of California’s big cities saw job growth of more than 2 percent this year, L.A. matched the nation’s average of just 1.35 percent. With the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown hampering everything from agriculture to tech and hospitality, jobs in construction, professional and business services, and information have grown at a sluggish rate, the study finds.”

“As for California’s troubled housing market, there’s not much relief in sight. Nickelsburg notes that lower interest rates on mortgages ‘did little to revitalize the real estate market,’ with the home building rate stagnating between 100,000 and 150,000 since the summer. And because part of that construction went to rebuild houses lost in natural disasters, Nickelsburg warns that ‘the state has clearly fallen behind in home production relative to population growth and future needs, and this is not expected to change any time soon.'”

“The forecast also addresses whether next year will bring a mere slowdown or a full-fledged recession, with UCLA economist Edward A. Leamer laying 19 percent odds that the latter will strike by the third quarter of 2020. Here, too, Los Angeles could suffer its own unique pain. Leamer warns that, along with manufacturing, mining, information and software, ‘the movie business’ could be especially hard-hit.”

“‘Now is the time for a personal stress test,’ he says. ‘Is your family/business relying on income from jobs or sales that are threatened? Do you have debt service obligations that depend on those earnings or do you have other threatened earnings? If yes, sell off some assets to retire some of that debt.… Cash is what you want in a recession when asset prices are plummeting.'”

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This Post Has 167 Comments

  1. ‘She wants to get it a good steward for the property. It’s not so much about profit’

    That’s good Mike cuz she’s gonna take an a$$ pounding.

    1. I assume the poundings take place in the pink “meditation room.” (seriously, there’s one in the house, look at the pix)

  2. “For thousands of luxury condo owners in New York who have received deep tax breaks for a decade or more, the taxman is coming.

    The tax man is going to be the death of high housing prices, as the social parasitism promoted and enabled by progressives means ever-increasing wealth extraction from the tax base, with shacks being large, illiquid assets that are low-hanging fruit.

    1. The tax man is going to be the death of high housing prices

      The rest of New York State proved this for generations until the speculative housing bubble came on the scene. High tax rates meant very low house prices.

  3. ‘You look at historic Mission San Jose, it’s terrible, the whole intersection is littered with signs’

    Wa? No camping out, no streams of buyers waving wads of money in the air?

    ‘Now is the time for a personal stress test…Is your family/business relying on income from jobs or sales that are threatened? Do you have debt service obligations that depend on those earnings or do you have other threatened earnings? If yes, sell off some assets to retire some of that debt.… Cash is what you want in a recession when asset prices are plummeting’

    Now you tell em Ed…

    BTW Ed, lower housing prices are very good for the economy.

    1. jobs or sales that are threatened?

      It takes a little more than a snap decision for most debt donkeys with bubble jobs to convert themselves miraculously into secure stallions with piles of cash.

  4. ‘Our spokesperson up in Boulder, Kelly Moye, actually forecast that in 2020, it’s going to be a buyers market in Boulder County, and that’s the first time since 2012′

    The ebola came to Boulder over a year ago Matt.

    1. – Boulder is outrageously expensive for general cost of living. Housing is just one facet of this. Part of the remedy would be lower housing prices. Not sure I would live there though. A little too Socialist for me!

  5. “There’s not enough new housing, and rising prices are still an issue, said Matthew Leprino, managing broker at The Ridgewood Company and spokesman for the Colorado Association of Realtors.

    With all the illegals and refugees flooding into Colorado, courtesy of Comrade Pelosi and the Bolsheviks in Denver, there will never be enough new housing, and the quality of life in the Front Range is being destroyed by out-of-control growth and development.

  6. ‘China is ending all electric vehicle subsidies for its 486 registered manufacturers after production fell by over a third and sales plunged by almost half.

    ‘The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a draft of a 15-year EV plan on Dec. 3 that would mandate electric vehicles to account for 25 percent of China’s annual domestic light-vehicle sales by 2025, despite ending its $7,000 “new energy vehicle” (NEV) subsidy this month that was cut in half in June.’

    ‘China’s October vehicle production fell by 1.7 percent compared to last year, and sales declined by 4 percent. But the biggest declines were centered in NEVs that saw production fall by 35.4 percent and sales tank by 45.6 percent, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.’

    ‘China’s top billionaires poured $18 billion into NEV start-ups. But President Trump imposed 30 to 50 percent U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar panels and washing machines in January 2018. He followed up in March with additional tariffs of 25 percent on steel, and 10 percent on aluminum. As the Sino-U.S. trade war has ratcheted up tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, China car sales have slumped for eighteen months.’

    ‘Despite deep pockets and a goal of establishing itself as the world’s top seller of NEV units, NIO lost $2.8 billion in the 12 months ending in June 2019 on revenue of $1.2 billion. With its stock tumbling, the Shanghai-based company cut more than 20 percent of its workforce through September, when Tencent was forced to inject another $100 million.’

    ‘NIO Chief Executive Officer William Li complained, “Our sales have been under pressure since the subsidies went down.” He added, “It has come to a new era that one can only win customers with quality products and services.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-ends-electric-vehicle-subsidies-as-sales-cut-in-half_3168167.html

    1. ‘lost $2.8 billion in the 12 months ending in June 2019 on revenue of $1.2 billion’

      Now that’s vision!

      1. It’s a perfect storm for Tesla to birth their factory in China. I wonder if China regrets yet lending them the billions to build.

        BTW China, electricity is not a new energy source. It’s not even an energy source. You’ll figure it out eventually.

        1. Yes, Tesla is going to sell like crazy now. Remember, the EV subsidies were largely only given to domestic (e.g. Chinese producers), so the ending of the subsidy is a huge boon to Tesla because now they will compete on a level playing field.

          1. I wonder if that means electric vehicles no longer get free plates in Shanghai and Beijing? They are extremely expensive and that was one of the biggest selling points before.

          2. The one thing i can say about Tesla is it will either do really well like you constantly mention or it will be another Solyndra. Musk seems like a “all in” player which typically doesnt bode well when you lose. Damn that cyber truck!

          3. I wonder if that means electric vehicles no longer get free plates in Shanghai and Beijing?

            As far as I have read, New Energy Vehicles (NEVs, which include electric vehicles) are the only vehicles that are except from caps on license plates across the entire country.

            “Until now, the Chinese government not only had very strict limits on number plate quotas for combustion engines but some regions had also included new energy vehicles. Now, in an effort to keep boosting EV sales without subsidies, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, has issued a statement indicating that it will ask cities to remove such caps on license plates for vehicles with alternative drives.”

            “Last year in Beijing alone, about three million people waited for a license plate and only 60,000 plates were issued for electric vehicles. The change in the law also provides new opportunities for foreign electric car manufacturers who were disadvantaged under both subsidy provisions – since they had no access to the regular incentives of the state – as well as being limited by number plate quotas for NEVs.”

            https://www.electrive.com/2019/06/09/china-to-lift-quotas-on-nev-licence-plates/

          5. Very few Chinese can bu[y] Tesla’s

            True on a percentage basis. But 1% of 1.4 billion is still a big number.

        2. if China regrets

          EM is indebted to the CCP and has a US national security clearance. What could go wrong?!

          3. He was also running a red light. But I guess when you’re a billionare visionary, piddly traffic laws dont apply to you.

    2. “NIO Chief Executive Officer William Li complained, “Our sales have been under pressure since the subsidies went down.” He added, “It has come to a new era that one can only win customers with quality products and services.”

      – No kidding! What a genius! The very definition of free market action.

      – Another timeless commentary on our globally subsidized, centrally-planned, manipulated economy. Socialism isn’t working for the Communists. What chance has it got in the West? And yet the idiot Central Banks and governments continue to shove it down our throats. Free markets anywhere? No. Too few opportunities for graft, power grabs and corruption. It’s a mad, mad, world. East or West.

    3. The real story here is that China is simply going to cap gas car purchases and force auto manufacturers to produce EVs if they want to be in the Chinese market at all. And if they don’t, the auto manufacturers will end up subsidizing local EV manufacturers (mainly Chinese producers) by buying EV credits. The end result will be that instead of China paying for the gas car to EV transition, the auto makers will. This means that EVs are about to explode in China. Tesla is well positioned with model 3s rolling off the line now. Just this month they passed BYD as the largest EV manufacturer in the world.

      It took a while for Japan to make good cars and Korea was even quicker to ramp up the quality. China knows that EVs are the future and they are going to support their local manufacturing because they want to basically do for their country what the automotive revolution did for the US.

      1. The problem is China already produces more ICE vehicles per year than it can sell. Overall auto sales are declining despite capacity still increasing.

        Almost every single provincial government has its own car company that does joint ventures with foreign firms like VW, so this means overcapacity is a national security interest (those are jobs, tax revenues, loans on capital from the State Bank System, etc.)

        I’m not sure how easy it will be to ignore that decade of misallocation of capital when the government is once again demanding firms create new capacity for a new industry (EVs).

        Can the government perpetually provide support for overcapacity with zero economic consequences? Can they easily roll over the untold billions they’ve funneled into creating automobile manufacturing capacity? Can a factory for a ICE Honda City be easily transitioned to an EV factory?

        1. My stepfather and step mother taught English in Chengdu (BYU Kennedy center). My mom also lived in HK for 2 years, but only speaks Cantonese (not Mandarin). I think the Chinese push to EVs is motivated by 2 main reasons: 1) Pollution is one factor that could unite the population and delegitimize the CCP 2) China wants to eventually export EVs. The US has seen a flood of German cars (Mercedes, BMW, and VW), then Japanese (Toyota/Honda), and then Korean (Kia/Hyundai). China’s plan is to leapfrog the gas motor and go up the value chain and then export higher value-add vehicles. If they make cars that their own population wants to buy, they will eventually be able to export their “excess capacity.”

          1. I think you’re right about the plan to be an EV export leader.

            And some players like Ford and Buick already had a few models they were exporting to the USA, at least until tariffs made that less profitable.

            There is a BYU presence in the Mainland? I had no idea!

          2. There is a BYU presence in the Mainland? I had no idea!

            It’s mostly a cultural relationship building program that has existed for some time.

            BYU China Teachers program:

            PROGRAM GOALS
            -To provide instruction in English and selected content areas to affiliated Chinese universities for the enrichment of Chinese university students,
            -To build academic and cultural ties between BYU, the Kennedy Center, and Chinese universities, in order to promote mutual understanding and trust,
            -To provide an opportunity for CTP teachers to absorb the ancient and modern culture of China, to enable them to develop friendship and respect for their Chinese students and the People’s Republic of China
            -To provide Chinese students with an intimate and extended exposure to American teachers to increase their awareness of America.

            https://kennedy.byu.edu/chinateachers/

            Here is the most recent “BYU-China Spectacular” performing arts highlights:

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBVhkChGGOk

          3. Will these exported Chinese cars be dependable enough to overcome China’s reputation for cheap and falling apart?* This isn’t an $8 t-shirt bottle which falls apart. No one is going to risk their commute on Chinese manufacturing until there is a sea change in Chinese quality. And they shouldn’t push their luck with the value-add. Quality costs money, and that will push the base cost close to American-made, especially with automation.

            * Not to mention China’s reputation for cutting corners and cheating. Even Chinese mothers are begging for baby formula smuggled from the US and Australia because they don’t trust their own dairies.

          5. Will these exported Chinese cars be dependable enough to overcome China’s reputation for cheap and falling apart?*

            It remains to be seen. But a couple of decades ago Kia and Hyundai were seen in roughly the same light: cheaply made and undependable. Now most major consumer ratings of car quality consistently rate them in the high range of build quality.

          6. @Oxide: here are some of the cars currently on USA roads that were imported from China:

            Buick Envision
            Cadillac CT6 Plug in Hybrid
            Volvo S60
            Volvo S90

            Their long-term durability will be known in a few years. But if you are on public roads, chances are you are near 100% Chinese imports. This is the game plan by firms like Ford — do all auto manufacturing in China due to weak environmental and labor regulations.

            Bad Orange Man ruined their plans with tariffs.

        2. support for overcapacity

          The sad end for overcapacity or malcapacity is that the massive debts don’t get paid.

      2. “China knows that EVs are the future”

        Good for them. Now let them figure out short-time charging, swappable batteries, and ubiquitous refueling, since the Americans can’t seem to be arsed to do any of that. And then when the Chinese get it up and running, we can steal that IP for ourselves. Easy peasy China squeezy.

    1. I agree! If poor Republican Ultra-Conservative counties can’t create jobs like Democrat counties, then they shouldn’t accept refugees.
      I don’t think it is a problem because even if they are deadbeats, Republican counties don’t have many welfare freebies.

      I see it here. All of the jobs are in Democrat Denver. The stream of cars heading back down I25 in the evening to the Republican Springs for the cheap housing and rent shows what a disaster Republican government is for job creation. Meanwhile, Denver housing keeps setting record highs and record job growth.

        1. The price of housing/rent has always been tied to the median wage in an area.

          Even the Conservative Wall Street Journal has noted that the highest wage jobs are in Blue areas. A suburb of Dallas was the one exception from this report.

          As far as jobs, I agree that the Red areas tend to have more WalMart wage jobs. Housing is cheaper.

          1. Higher paying jobs are clustering in urban city centers. But housing growth is limited in those areas due to: 1) Regulation 2) NIMBYism 3) vacant, unoccupied units (owned by foreigners and nationals) 4) Airbnb units 5) high input costs (land/labor/human capital). Therefore, you get the “drive ’till you qualify” and the rise of the super commuter. This in turn leads to crappy quality of living and poor health, lack of time with family, lack of time for hobbies/recreation. Super commuters have have poor health from being sedentary and have less time to even exercise/walk, etc. Plus, these commutes effectively lengthening working hours as commuting is a form of work that is non-compensated and add extra tailpipe pollution and wear/tear on cars.

            So until affordable housing options are available for worker-bees in the urban city centers, you’re going to have increasingly long commutes or weird arrangements like the Uber/Lyft drivers who sleep in their car overnight. As far off as self-driving in a fully electric vehicle, I actually see it as much more likely than urban housing that is 2x-3x local incomes.

            You are seeing weird effects of this job/location mismatch even now. Coming soon to an urban city-center near you:

            FedEx Goes Deep Into Mississippi Delta to Find Workers
            Paul Ziobro
            WSJ
            Dec 7, 2019

            “GREENWOOD, Miss.—Inside the nearly barren living room of her apartment, Mary Harris slips into a reflective yellow jacket adorned with the FedEx Corp. logo as the sun begins to set. It is Monday. She won’t be back home until around sunrise on Wednesday.”

            “In between, Ms. Harris will drive an hour northwest to Cleveland, Miss., from where she will make three four-hour round trips curled up on a bus to Memphis, Tenn. In Memphis, she will do two overnight shifts and one day shift—each five hours long—helping to move and sort millions of packages at FedEx’s primary air hub.”

            “FedEx has tapped deep into the Mississippi Delta to find workers for the largest facility in its world-wide supply chain. Lured by the chance to work for a global company and earn hourly wages starting at $13.26, some 200 workers gather in a Walmart parking lot in Cleveland, Miss., five nights a week to board buses bound for Memphis.”

            “To fill its vast workforce, delivery giant ferries 200 people four hours round trip to work the night shift at its Memphis hub”

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/fedex-goes-deep-into-mississippi-delta-to-find-workers-11575714601

          2. Exercise is overrated. Super commuters have poor health due to lack of sleep (getting up at 4 etc) and cortisol due to low-level but unrelenting stress.

          3. Exercise is overrated.

            Exercise isn’t the main thing for weight, diet and sleep is. But for general health, exercise is probably dramatically underrated.

            Closest Thing to a Wonder Drug? Try Exercise
            June 20, 2016
            Aaron E. Carroll
            New York Times

            “After I wrote last year that diet, not exercise, was the key to weight loss, I was troubled by how some readers took this to mean that exercise therefore had no value.”

            “Nothing could be further from the truth. Of all the things we as physicians can recommend for health, few provide as much benefit as physical activity.”

            “In 2015, the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges put out a report calling exercise a “miracle cure.” This isn’t a conclusion based simply on some cohort or case-control studies. There are many, many randomized controlled trials. A huge meta-analysis examined the effect of exercise therapy on outcomes in people with chronic diseases.”

      2. ‘Meanwhile, Denver housing keeps setting record highs’

        October 3, 2018

        A report from the Denver Post in Colorado. “Home sales in the metro Denver area fell precipitously in September, forcing sellers to cut their asking prices and pushing up the inventory of properties available for sale at an unprecedented rate, according to a monthly update from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.”

        “‘The housing inventory and home price adjustments are normal and expected,’ said Steve Danyliw, chairman of the DMAR Market Trends Committee. ‘What’s not normal? Sales of single-family homes priced over $500,000 dropping 33 percent from August to September. For those sellers, that’s real turbulence.’”

        “Metro Denver’s housing market has shown signs of cooling since early summer. But it practically froze over in September, and that meant sellers faced a bumpy ride, especially owners of more expensive properties.”

        “The number of single-family homes sold in September, across all price ranges, dropped 30.5 percent from August and is down 21.4 percent compared to September 2017. Condo sales fell a dramatic 42.9 percent on the month and are down 17.3 percent year-over-year. The inventory of homes and condos available for sale at the end of September shot up to 8,807, an increase of 7.04 percent from August and 16.1 percent compared to a year ago.”

        From the Gazette. “Colorado Springs’ red-hot housing market wasn’t quite so crazy last month, as home sales slowed, inventory rose to a two-year high and prices increased, a Pikes Peak Association of Realtors report shows. The single-family home market is ‘just stabilizing a little bit — not so frenzied,’ said Donna Major, board chairwoman for the Realtors Association.”

        “Home sales totaled 1,273 last month, a nearly 16 percent year-over-year drop and the seventh straight monthly decline. Major said multiple offers for homes aren’t quite as common as they were early in the year. The number of homes listed for sale climbed to 2,449 in September, 14.2 percent higher than the same month last year and the most since August 2016.”

        “‘It has that feel of, we’re not in that desperate situation,’ Major added Tuesday. ‘People are starting to be a little more cautious, and buyers are starting to be … a little more, maybe, a little more picky about what they’re buying and trying not to overpay or feel like they’re overpaying.’”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=149

        November 17, 2019

        The Denver Post in Colorado. “Home sellers in metro Denver appear to be trying to squeeze every last drop out of a historic run-up in prices. But in doing so, they risk getting squeezed themselves. In the past seven days, through Thursday, 1,433 new homes and condos came on metro Denver’s multiple-listing service. But in that same stretch, 1,539 listings underwent a price decrease, notes Anthony Carnesi, CEO at Keller Williams Realty DTC.”

        “‘The number of price reductions in the six-county area is greater than the number of new listings,’ he said.”

        “After botching the initial listing, sellers need to make a dramatic gesture to get buyers interested again. Offering token slivers of price reductions won’t do the trick, Carnesi said. There are other signs of a market shift. A year ago, one out of three homes that went under contract with a Redfin agent in metro Denver had received multiple offers. But in October, only 6.8% of metro Denver homes on the market received multiple offers. Nationally, the number of homes on the market receiving multiple offers dropped from 38.7% to 10.2%, which represented a 10-year low.”

        http://housingbubble.blog/?p=2622

        1. “that meant sellers faced a bumpy ride”

          B-b-b-but Denver was special. It was different there 🙁

      3. You are living in an ultimate reality. Most Republican areas have job creation numbers higher than the Democratic areas. Otherwise people would not have been leaving the Northeast for 50 years

          1. I know of a few who do, but they commute to jobs on Denver’s south side. Still a major chore in the winter, as winter storms can wreak havoc on I-25, especially around Monument.

      4. All of the jobs are in Democrat Denver.

        That is utterly false. The DoD jobs are in Aurora. The Aerospace jobs are in Littleton, The Federal Center (6000+ FedGov jobs) is in Lakewood. The Denver Tech Center is partially located in Greenwood Village. There is a tech corridor in Broomfield/Westminster/Louisville. Etc.

        1. There is a tech corridor in Broomfield/Westminster/Louisville. Etc.

          I miss the days when Storage ruled that area. It was a nice middle class life where a new grad could buy a new starter home as soon as they started working. My new grad salary was about 36k and new starter houses a short commute away were just over 100k. It was 1996 and we didn’t realize yet that Y2K was gonna get big quickly and salaries were going to go up quickly and house prices were going to go up quickly. At that point I had never seen anyone speculate on housing and was surprised to figure out some of my new neighbors were doing exactly that when they sold a couple of years later and bought something much bigger with the assumption that it was also going to double in price in 4 years.

          1. “The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 also permanently exempted from taxation capital gains on the sale of a personal residence amounting up to $500,000 for married couples filing jointly, and $250,000 for single individuals. This exemption only applies to residences taxpayers have occupied for at least two of the last five years. Taxpayers can only claim this exemption once every two years.” —wiki

            The tipping point.

      5. Thanks for all of the comments.

        The 2016 Presidential election showed the Denver cities (Denver, Littleton, Aurora, Centennial) all voted Democrat Blue.

        Blue Metro Denver has one of the highest job growth and pay in the nation.

        Meanwhile, poor Red Colorado Springs has cheap housing and cheaper rents. And far less good paying jobs.

        I agree, people can’t make the commute for very long. Denver saw an uptick in home sales prices in 2019.

        You can draw your own conclusions.

          1. San Francisco has nearly the highest housing prices in the US.
            And the highest wages. And the most Blue of any US city.

            As you likely know, the Republicans destroyed the automotive unions. Detroit used to be a middle class paradise until the Republicans destroyed union jobs.

            You know this already but are attempting to be a troll.

          2. You know this already

            Actually, the only union I’ve watched get destroyed did it to themselves by putting their employer out of business.

          3. Just FYI, the posters here tend toward libertarian/conservative. Any attempt to blue-pill the posters will likely not work.

            The auto unions killed themselves. Semi-skilled means easy to replace. When auto unions pushed their luck, companies found it cheaper to train new non-union workers than to pay ever-higher bennies to the existing workers. That’s the risk that semi-skilled workers take when they unionize. Unskilled workers take even more risk, as they can be replaced by outsourcing, automation, or sainted illegal immigrants.

          5. Does this help?

            The Globalists killed all of the middle class union jobs in the US and shipped them all to Mexico and China.

            Before that, America was great!

            Have you heard this before?

        3. It is states that set corporate and individual income tax rates and regulatory policy. Yes blue cities can do well in red States. However, once the tax policies set during the red tenure are changed the blue states and cities collapse. Colorado has recently turned blue and the decline has begun. Give it a few decades. Part of the ” prosperity” of blue areas has been the willingness by the residents to pile on debt both governmental but also private. It is a phoney unsustainable prosperity but it does take time for bubble prices for housing etc to pop. After the $500,000 houses in Denver become $250,000 houses, we will see how prosperous the people who own $450,000 on the $250,000 house really are. Additionally, the high governmental incomes and pensions will collapse at the same time

          1. how prosperous the people who own [owe] $450,000 on the $250,000 house really are.

            What Blue Bob doesn’t realize is that the $500K house in Denver probably isn’t worth $125K once the housing/credit bubble pops. The biggest credit expansion in human history may be superimposed on some “cycles” but it isn’t a cycle itself.

      6. he stream of cars heading back down I25 in the evening to the Republican Springs for the cheap housing and rent shows what a disaster Republican government is for job creation.

        Are you on crack? There’s nothing cheap about housing or rent in Colorado Springs.

        1. Rent and housing prices in Colorado Springs may be high compared to Podunk, but they are still half of Denver. You can still rent a 2 bedroom apartment in COS for less than 1K/month.

          I realize this is a conservative site but you can’t ignore reality that Blue areas are doing much better economically. and according to the conservative WSJ, this disparity is increasing. That great Republican Experiment in Kansas a few years shows what a failure Red economic policies have become.

          1. Blue areas are doing much better economically.

            This does not explain why California is the poorest state in the Union.

          3. This does not explain why California is the poorest state in the Union.

            Nor all the homeless in Seattle. Take a drive through and enjoy the tents along the interstate and piles of trash.

            Or the druggies downtown yelling “f*ck whitey” as you walk to work.

  10. “It has come to a new era that one can only win customers with quality products and services.”

    What a concept!

    I’m so old I remember when it was easy to get quality products. Instead of made in China junk.

    2. When I first moved into my house, I repainted a bathroom. The medicine cabinet had unfashionable brass trim. I thought to replace the cabinet until I took off a couple of screws and saw a small embossed label: “Made in Austria.” Whoh. I left the cabinet and just painted over the trim.

    1. All indications suggest the current bull market will live forever!

      The Wall Street Journal
      Stocks
      Investors Bail on Stock Market Rally, Fleeing Funds at Record Pace
      In what may be the best year for stocks since 2013, investors have exited in droves
      By Michael Wursthorn
      Dec. 8, 2019 5:30 am ET

      The S&P 500 is having its best run in six years, but individual investors are fleeing stock funds at the fastest pace in decades.

      That is potentially a good sign for the long-running bull market.
      …

    2. Apparently the stock market bubble is more robust than the housing market bubble, as Ben documents here on a daily basis how the latter is leaking air.

      Here’s the hard-money call for why the boom in the economy and stock market will continue
      By Steve Goldstein
      Published: Dec 9, 2019 11:04 a.m. ET
      Critical information for the U.S. trading day
      The fireworks in markets might continue

      You might think the hard-money, recession-at-every-corner crowd would be predicting an imminent reversal in the stock market given the 20% gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year.

      Not necessarily.

      Thorsten Polleit, the chief economist at Swiss metals trader Degussa, explains why he thinks an economic boom will continue, with stock prices also strong.

      “As long as there is still room for pushing the market interest rate down further, the chances are reasonably good that the boom continues, and that the bust will be adjourned into the future. As per the charts below, current market interest rates in the U.S. have not reached rock bottom yet. Corporate and mortgage credit costs in particular still have some way to go before hitting zero,” he writes in an article for the Alabama libertarian think tank, the Mises Institute.

      “The decline in market interest rates is only one factor among many others which explain why stock prices have gone up in recent years. But it is a significant factor, and it contributes to the build-up of a price bubble,” he says.

      To be sure, Polleit expects a very hard landing. “The severity of the crisis that must be expected to unfold at some point in the future — at the latest when all market interest rates have been pushed onto the zero line and investment returns have become negligible — is driven to ever-higher levels. This is something we do know from the Austrian business cycle theory. But it is certainly not enough to come up with a reliable forecast,” he says.
      …

    3. ‘Shocked’ strategist says sell Tesla — ‘I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary’
      By Shawn Langlois
      Published: Dec 9, 2019 12:01 p.m. ET
      ‘I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary, a great engineer, or whatever baloney he claims’
      Joe Rogan/YouTube
      Elon Musk puffs on a joint during a podcast with Joe Rogan.

      ‘I don’t want to hold an investment in a firm run by someone like Elon Musk. The next 10 years are not going to be about Unicorn Hype — it will be back to fundamentals.’
      …

  12. ‘NIO Chief Executive Officer William Li complained, “Our sales have been under pressure since the subsidies went down.” He added, “It has come to a new era that one can only win customers with quality products and services.”

    Imagine that. If you follow Eric Peter’s Auto columns linked from lewrockwell.com you might be familiar with a similar theme which is the war on ICE autos from uncle Sugar aka the Fed gov. His thesis is that the manufactures cater to regulations rather than customer asks hence the explosion in weight and costs.

    Seems China is finding its Solyndra moment.

    1. His thesis is that the manufactures cater to regulations rather than customer asks hence the explosion in weight and costs.

      A 2019 Honda Civic can weigh as much as 3000 lbs.

  13. “‘Now is the time for a personal stress test,’ he says. ‘Is your family/business relying on income from jobs or sales that are threatened? Do you have debt service obligations that depend on those earnings or do you have other threatened earnings? If yes, sell off some assets to retire some of that debt.… Cash is what you want in a recession when asset prices are plummeting.’”

    That’s some pretty stark advice to serve alongside a 19% recession forecast in the second half of 2020.

    1. AG Barr statement: “The Inspector General’s report now makes clear that the FBI launched an intrusive investigation of a U.S. presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken.”

      3. https://www.theburningplatform.com/2019/12/06/hows-that-alternative-reality-working-out-for-you/

        “Twenty years ago, the whole concept of a Deep State was fringe, a notion embraced only by kooks and so-called conspiracy theorists. There was an American Deep State with international connections and it had been running the country since at least WWII, but it really was deep, few people on the outside were aware of it. Now, the phrase is routinely cited by the president, deployed every day in the alternative media, and even the mainstream media occasionally use it.”

        1. When the mainstream media uses “deep state” it is usually sarcastically or because they are reporting on someone or some group that is wrapped up in an unfounded conspiracy claiming such a “deep state” exists.

          1. or… the mainstream media uses the term sarcastically because the mainstream media organizations are the stenographers for the Deep State.

        2. Deep State

          In the impeachment hearings I believe they are calling this the “Interagency”. The implication was that by going around this in dealings with Ukraine, the president was interfering with US foreign policy. Just amazing. Mask off.

    2. Huge gaslighting by Chris Wallace on Fox News right now: “Horowitz found no political bias.” Just forget about those text messages between Strzok and Page showing quite the opposite.

    4. Statement of U.S. Attorney John H. Durham: “I have the utmost respect for the mission of the Office of Inspector General and the comprehensive work that went into the report prepared by Mr. Horowitz and his staff. However, our investigation is not limited to developing information from within component parts of the Justice Department. Our investigation has included developing information from other persons and entities, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S. Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.”

    1. JamesJim, this is a timely post.

      The median home value in 80202 is $529,100. 80202 home values have gone up 3.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.1% within the next year.

      Much better than I am making in my bank account.

      I have seen it all before. Please heed.

  17. Atlanta GA stole the Movie/Commercial/Video business already, now the #1 leader in the world for film production, ALL major studios have built monster size studios through out the state. With the low cost of living, housing, work force, small towns, mountains, coast, and the best airport, it’ll only grow over time. CA is undesirable and costs tomuch, Bye Felicia.

    1. Jimbo,

      You are too young, inexperience, and dumb to understand the new start-ups mentality in CA. Who needs profits when you can grow tech companies like WeWork, Uber, Lyft, Slack, Juul, Tesla, uBiome, Chewy, Peloton etc. Keep your “OK Boomers” to yourself and stop eating avocado toasts so you can afford a $2M dream shack in Cupertino.

  18. Seen it all before Bob, the old man of the sea trying to fight back the waves, pathetic. Typical Libtard lies, or maybe its just a little dementia considering his age. You aint seen it all before, just what CNN tells you.

    1. The Old Man of The Sea was fighting a fish. The big Fish controlling everything now is the Fed. The big Sharks are circling.

      I call ’em as I see ’em based on decades of experience.
      The Old Man lost everything except his life. Based on seeing this already, I hope to do better.

        1. Even though Denver home prices are increasing at 3% YOY, I can get a better dividend at 5+% with ATT, Exxon, BP, Verizon.
          Big companies are paying better than 3% so I don’t think this housing Bubble in Denver is a good investment.

          If I was looking for a primary home and wanted to live in Denver, it may be a good investment if I held for 10 years. Otherwise, I’d wait for a 20-30% cyclical drop.

          Colorado Springs has homes at half the Denver prices and IMHO is a better place to live (Because I live there and don’t commute to Denver for a job). However, it is hard to find a high paying job in COS. Red/Libertarian politics don’t even try to lure good jobs to the area. Government is too small to even have enough staffing to put in a decent effort. Blue politics want those jobs and like any good business, they have staffing to capture this market.

          1. Red/Libertarian politics don’t even try to lure good jobs to the area. Government is too small to even have enough staffing to put in a decent effort. Blue politics want those jobs and like any good business, they have staffing to capture this market.

            So…you’re saying areas that believe in small government simply can’t compete with people willing to use big government to give away tax money to lure in big business? That sounds like something that might take some time to play out.

          2. Small government (Less taxes) does not have the tax revenue to hire focused staffing to market the area. It also does not have the tax base to build parks, schools, theater, sports arenas, libraries, and other services that attract big business.

            I remember my first job at a very conservative company that paid as little as they could, and being true capitalists hired out to a company to put in coffee vending machines to charge each employee 25 cents per cup.

            After a couple of years of gaining experience, I went to the liberal competitor who offered free fresh coffee, a gym, and higher pay.

            Now these liberal companies have yoga rooms, onsite chefs, and free meals.

            I realize nothing is free, but conservative cities undertax their citizens and aren’t able to pay for amenities that attract talented people which attract big companies. That is why Red areas are doing worse.

            It is like a company that is charging too little for their product until they eventually go out of business.

    1. This article is rayciss. The IPO millionare thing is out of style and the smart have moved to the only 2 things that have guaranteed END OF STORY returns: Real Estate and Buttcoin. Dont be such a boomer, ok boomer?

  21. Ho, ho ho, Christmas came early!

    Fate of WTO’s Top Court Effectively Sealed by US Blocking Strategy

    ‘The United States said on Dec. 9 that it won’t back a proposal to allow the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) top court to continue.’

    ‘President Donald Trump is a longtime critic of the organization, and for two years, his administration has been blocking appointments to the WTO’s seven-member Appellate Body that rules on trade disputes, with U.S. officials saying the court had overstepped its mandate.’

    ‘While the Appellate Body needs a minimum of three judges to function, the terms of two of the three remaining members of the panel expire Dec. 10; the U.S. is blocking any possible replacements.’

    ‘Another attempt was made on Dec. 9 to reach a consensus on arrangements for filling the vacancies, as well as obliging the appeals panel to issue rulings within 90 days. The WTO is the only international group that deals with the rules of trade between each country, via agreements among the organization’s member nations.’

    ‘In July, Trump pressed the WTO to stop allowing Beijing and other major economies to receive lenient treatment by proclaiming themselves “developing” countries. At the time, Trump directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to “use all available means” to get the WTO to block countries from using the claim.’

    ‘Developing countries get more time to open their economies, more leeway to subsidize their exports, and procedural advantages in WTO disputes. Countries can choose their own status, and other countries can challenge them.’

    ‘Trump said the designation lets China and others take “unfair” advantage of the trade rules. If the United States decides the WTO hasn’t made “substantial progress” after 90 days, it will seek unilaterally to stop treating those countries as developing economies.’

    ‘China’s trade ambassador, Zhang Xiangchen, reacted to the U.S. actions on Dec. 9, saying, “This is no doubt the most severe blow to the multilateral trading system since its establishment.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fate-of-wtos-top-court-effectively-sealed-after-us-blocking-strategy_3169307.html

      2. shrieking with simian-like rage

        Particularly descriptive having seen a baboon do just that while rattling his cage thankfully chained to the wall.

          1. Is it pretty much for certain that any significant China trade agreement is on hold until Trump’s second term?

    3. From whence commeth The Epoch Times?

      Trump, QAnon and an impending judgment day: Behind the Facebook-fueled rise of The Epoch Times
      Aug. 20, 2019
      Brandy Zadrozny and Ben Collins
      NBC News

      By the numbers, there is no bigger advocate of President Donald Trump on Facebook than The Epoch Times.

      The small New York-based nonprofit news outlet has spent more than $1.5 million on about 11,000 pro-Trump advertisements in the last six months, according to data from Facebook’s advertising archive — more than any organization outside of the Trump campaign itself, and more than most Democratic presidential candidates have spent on their own campaigns.

      Those video ads — in which unidentified spokespeople thumb through a newspaper to praise Trump, peddle conspiracy theories about the “Deep State,” and criticize “fake news” media — strike a familiar tone in the online conservative news ecosystem. The Epoch Times looks like many of the conservative outlets that have gained followings in recent years.

      “But it isn’t. Behind the scenes, the media outlet’s ownership and operation is closely tied to Falun Gong, a Chinese spiritual community with the stated goal of taking down China’s government.”

      1. I’ll note that once again, this poster is telling us who we shouldn’t read or listen to.

        Besides your infantile BS with Tesla, I really don’t like you now. You’re hanging by the short-hairs here mister. You could just go away and I’d be fine with it.

        1. Lefties are control freaks and authoritarians. Few things enrage them as much as free thinkers who turn to non-Narrative Compliant sources of news and information.

  25. a) “One of these things is not like the other.”
    b) “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra
    c) “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” – George Santayana
    d) I’m sure “it’s different this time,” and “this will end well.” (two-fer)
    e) Garth Algar: “Party on, Wayne.” Wayne Campbell: “Party on, Garth.”

    ———————————–

    1)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/refinancing-surges-as-homeowners-pull-out-the-most-cash-in-12-years.html

    Real Estate
    Refinancing surges as homeowners pull out the most cash in 12 years
    Published Mon, Dec 9 201911:13 AM EST | Updated Mon, Dec 9 20191:02 PM EST
    Diana Olick

    “Cash-out refinances were up 24% since the last quarter of 2018 and made up 52% of all refinances.”

    “Homeowners withdrew a collective $36 billion in home equity, the highest amount in nearly 12 years.”

    2)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/october-consumer-credit-expands-at-second-strongest-monthly-rate-this-year-2019-12-06

    Economy & Politics | Economic Report
    October consumer credit expands at second strongest monthly rate this year
    Published: Dec 6, 2019 3:01 p.m. ET
    By Greg Robb

    “What happened: Revolving credit, like credit cards, rose at a 8.8% rate in October. And credit-card use in September was also revised higher.”

    “Non-revolving credit, typically auto and student loans, rose 4.3% in October. Non-revolving credit is much less volatile than credit-card use.”

    3)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/what-consumers-most-want-in-2020-a-debt-free-life.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

    Personal Finance
    What consumers most want in 2020: a debt-free life
    Published Mon, Dec 9 201912:21 PM EST | Updated Mon, Dec 9 201912:37 PM EST
    Lorie Konish @LorieKonish

    “A new survey finds that 84% of individuals would rather save $5,000 than shed 5 pounds in 2020.”

    “Another big goal for next year — reducing debt — tops other resolutions, such as reducing computer or phone screen time.”

    “Many respondents said they regret taking on new or existing debts this year.”

    ———————————–

    “Oh, the insanity!” (but, party on)

    2. “Refinancing surges as homeowners pull out the most cash in 12 years”

      Psst, Diana? Cash Out Refinancing [is] the economy!

    3. “What consumers most want in 2020: a debt-free life”

      I don’t buy that line. There’s plenty of data that shows people whose debt was cleared in bankruptcy quickly leveraged themselves again when new credit cards arrived in the mail.

    4. Refinancing surges…

      Do the sheeple (or at least some of them) sense that the housing bubble is bursting?

    1. “Freedom is just another name for nuthin’ left to lose.”

      Come visit me at my bank and ask me about taking out a freedom loan.

      Total Freedom for you is but one signature away.

      1. “Come visit me at my bank and ask me about taking out a freedom loan.“

        Chase bank? I get these damn “freedom” credit card offers all the time and it makes me laugh as it is quite the opposite of freedom going into debt. More suitable would be a “ball and chain” credit card.

        1. My Freedom Loan comes with a lifetime guarantee that you will end up with nothing left to lose.

          Remember, Total Freedom is but one dotted-line away. Come visit me at my bank and enjoy a free cup of coffee.

  27. Breakingviews
    December 9, 2019 / 9:21 PM / Updated 2 hours ago
    Breakingviews – Now we’ve lost Paul Volcker, we must find another
    Martin Hutchinson

    Chairman of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board Paul Volcker listens during his testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington February 2, 2010.

    NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) – Now we’ve lost Paul Volcker, we must find another. Opposed by politicians and economists, the former Federal Reserve chairman, who died on Monday at the age of 92, raised interest rates, overcoming inflation the 1980s. A great central banker needs monetary policies that fit their time, as well as rarer qualities like determination and integrity. Volcker had both.
    …

    1. I’m truly saddened by this news. One of the few remaining public servants is gone. Vaya con dios, Pablo. Los angeles estan esperanto para ti.

    2. “Now we’ve lost Paul Volcker, we must find another.”

      Was he the last of the “gentile” central bankers?

  29. Efforts by the Fed and bullion banks to smash down gold through naked short selling and dumping of notional (non-existent) paper gold aren’t working. The Fed, morbidly fearful of gold as the only store of wealth that doesn’t represent someone else’s liability, needs to make gold look weak to bolster the dollar now that Powell is on track to surpass Zimbabwe Ben and Yellen the Felon when it comes to debasement of the dollar. When the masses belatedly see what a con game the Fed is pulling and start rushing into the safe haven of gold, it’s Game Over for the dollar unless the Fed dramatically hikes interest rates – which would be catastrophic for its asset bubbles and Ponzi markets.

    1. There were mitigating circumstances, namely, the pain of not being able to close on overpriced shacks. Gotta medicate that away somehow.

    2. Must do anything to get the stawk market to 30k by jan 2020! Adding this to the not QE repo billions over the last couple months will surely suffice right?! Whats the motive for this in this greatest economy ever? Are they trying to prevent something? Im no longer surprised by news like this in this “keep kicking the can economy”

  37. The first aerial images of U2 overflights over Cuba during the height of the Cuban missile crisis have been declassified. Soviet personnel assigned to missile bases on the island evidently anticipated the overflights, because they used white-painted rocks to spell out “Realtors are liars.”

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