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Listings Increasing And More Price Reductions

A report from Sarasota Magazine in Florida. “We all remember those heady days in 2006, when it felt like the real estate market would continue to soar. Until it didn’t, when values plummeted in 2007. Sarasota County homes lost 40 percent of their value during the Great Recession. But that was 12 years ago. Nationally and in Florida, homes are reaching record highs. ‘We’re well above what would have been the trend even without the bubble,’ says Chris McCarty, director of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.”

“Candy Swick specializes in the downtown Sarasota condo market, which has been red-hot, but now she says she sees signs of it ‘shifting.’ Alinari, the condominium on the North Trail across from the bay, has more supply than demand right now.”

From Curbed Hamptons in New York. “The famed Goose Creek estate in Wainscott—which has been rented by multiple celebrities over the years—has just cut another $1 million off its asking price and is now listed for $12,995,000. In January, the estate went on the market for $15,995,000 and got a $2 million price cut in May.”

The Orange County Register in California. “Southern California house sales slipped below year-ago levels in August for a fourth straight month, even though prices continued to climb, the California Association of Realtors reported. Regionwide, sales fell 7.5 percent year over year, Realtor figures show. It was the biggest sales drop among California metro areas.”

“Sales were down in all four counties covered by the Southern California News Group, dropping 8.9 percent in Los Angeles County, 9.7 percent in Orange County, 6.6 percent in Riverside County and 4.3 percent in San Bernardino County. The trend matches what’s been happening statewide.”

“‘Uncertainty about the housing market continues to mount,’ said CAR President Steve White. Homebuyers, White said, are reluctant to commit, fearing prices may have peaked.”

“CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young said a market shift appears to be underway. ‘We are seeing active listings increasing and more price reductions,’ Appleton-Young said.”

From Curbed San Francisco in California. “If San Francisco felt slightly less overwhelmingly expensive this summer, it wasn’t your imagination. The California Association of Realtors released its monthly report on median single family home prices across the state Monday, crunching sales numbers for the month of August.”

“The result: Prices climbed slightly statewide but dropped in San Francisco and across nearly the entire Bay Area. Of course, month to month dips are not usually that significant in statistical terms. However, this is also part of a slightly longer trend that saw prices tumble all summer.”

“Here’s how median SF sales figures for single family homes look since May: May: $1.62 million (-1.8 percent). June: $1.62 million (0 percent). July: $1.65 million (+1.8 percent). August: $1.55 million (-6.1 percent). That’s an unusual ebb and flow, but it does amount to a fairly sizable drop overall.”

“Across the nine Bay Area counties, the median dropped from $1.08 million in May to $935,000 in August. The statewide median rose slightly from July to August (0.8 percent) but also declined overall since the beginning of the summer.”

“CAR President Steve White points out, ‘Home sales activity remained on a downward trend for the fourth straight month [in August], as uncertainty about the housing market continues to mount.’ White speculates that buyers are waiting to see whether prices will take a significant downward trajectory after years of almost constant growth. White speculates that buyers might be speculating, it might be the beginning of a larger slide, as demand at last meets its match.”

“For now there’s nothing to do except watch fall numbers fall where they may.”

This Post Has 20 Comments
  1. ‘Appleton-Young said a market shift appears to be underway. ‘We are seeing active listings increasing and more price reductions’

    Eeee-bola Leslie!

    I got asked this question earlier:

    “Are you retiring this URL and migrating new posts to the new site?”

    My reply:

    No, I’ll use this URL as the archive. It was way too much data to import into a new blog, and would just make it run slow anyway. We actually tested it and about 1,000,000 comments couldn’t make the trip. Plus, reload the older blog and the new one and see how much faster the new one is.

    So the new blog will pick up where this one left off. As you may know, I use posts from this blog almost every day to make a point, etc.

  2. “Candy Swick specializes in the downtown Sarasota condo market, which has been red-hot, but now she says she sees signs of it ‘shifting.’ Alinari, the condominium on the North Trail across from the bay, has more supply than demand right now.”
    ————————————
    The Red Tide down there is making a huge impact. My Aunt lives around there and the talk of the town is what kind, if any, snowbirds will go down there for the winter. Apparently the smell is just horrible, so if you have an Airbnb down there’s you may want to get some Ebola insurance. 😀

      1. It’s not pleasant by any means, and it’s not just swimming or sitting on the beach, it affects a few blocks inland. Restaurants, tour boats, shops, condos…all will see a sink in Canadian and Ohio type snowbird dollars, and it goes from Tampa counterclockwise to Palm Beach. That’s a huge chunk of their economy!

        1. Funny, I work with a guy who is in Ohio and he was complaining yesterday about the few lakes/reservoirs in Ohio having red tide currently – no swimming allowed. Seems a big problem all over – saw signs in Oregon last month to be aware although no specific closings.

  3. “Shift” is now the new term? No more “correction”? This looks like the beginning of the housing burst. A lot of the YOY price increase was houses that went into settlement in May or June. Before the “shift” started. These will be known as the FB time as they brought at peak or near peak. It will be interesting to see what the fall or winter numbers look like.

    1. And … they will quote year over year until that does not work any more. They will then do some measure of appreciation over 3 or 5 years.

      Finally – it will then end.

  4. I am in sarasota. Red tide has been severe at times but is not typically a winter event. Summer is typically a slower real estate time due to about 1/2 population compared to winter season. There may indeed be some shifts, but will really need lowered winter season data to know conclusively.

  5. Saw some listings pop up near where I surf last night. All 5-6M homes, apparently built on spec by the developer of the land. The development debuted right as bubble 1.0 burst and I think only a handful of rather small homes were built, in addition to the golf course and (very elaborate) club house. Many lots went for 1M+ at the peak and foreclosed, selling for half that at the bottom – small too, maybe 1/4 acre but big ocean views. 1K+/mo in fees. I was surprised when I saw these monsters being built in the past couple years – good to know they were just the bait to lure suckers in to their DOOM!

    I should also add that in the debut the developer took deposits on the order of maybe 30-50K. This didnt reserve you a lot, but just ENTRY into a lottery to see if you got a lot. Once that was found out, people pulled (or tried to, never found out for sure) their deposits. Sleeeeez-y!

  6. White speculates that buyers might be speculating, it might be the beginning of a larger slide, as demand at last meets its match.”

    Buyers don’t need to speculate; the numbers and downward trajectory speak for themselves. Demand isn’t meeting its match; rather, the bubble is meeting its pin. We’ve seen this movie before and know how it ends for FBs: in tears, bitter regret, and foreclosure auctions.

  7. Still waiting for the crash and all of those major price reductions in housing. Any minute now the fed will stop printing money hand over fist and normalize interest rates based on historical averages. ANY MINUTE NOW.

  8. “Across the nine Bay Area counties, the median dropped from $1.08 million in May to $935,000 in August. The statewide median rose slightly from July to August (0.8 percent) but also declined overall since the beginning of the summer.”

    Seems like this one is going much faster than I would have guessed. If it continues to snowball like this each month we may see values reset much sooner than the last bubble. – 6% in August (1 month decline) is fantastic, let’s multiply that by 10 and we could have a realistic RE market once again

  9. I was at some open houses last weekend in Sacramento and saw price reductions finally! Hopefully prices drop 20-40% back to normal.

      1. This is true. Historically, Houses throughout the metro cities in US were always 2X the median income– that was before Bush’s house bubble started 2001. You could buy a house in LA or NYC in 2000 for $160k. Globalized open borders results in overcrowding housing, with landlords packing 10 renters to a room to cover surging housing costs. This is how a pyramid scheme based on importng endless suppy of humans to prop up neoliberal housing wealth effect ponzi.

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