thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

We’re Experiencing A Little Bit Of A Plateau

A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “Neal Baer, the pediatrician-turned-TV-writer is asking less than he paid for his Brentwood home. The charming Midcentury just hit the market for $3.35 million — or $150,000 shy of what he bought it for five years ago, records show. It’s not his first attempt to sell the property. He first floated it for sale at $4.195 million in 2017 before trimming the tag to $3.695 million a year later.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “Has the Bay Area housing market finally priced itself out of reach for, well, everyone? According to a new survey of more than 100 economists and real estate experts, the answer is yes. As for the nation’s worst real estate market in 2020? The winner of that unfortunate designation is the Bay Area. San Francisco was at the top of the list for expected underperformers — 64% of experts believe it will underperform in 2020. It was closely trailed by San Jose: 61% of experts believe that city’s housing market will underperform.”

“The question is, will the Bay Area experience slower growth for the right reasons? Unfortunately, the answer is no. In a well-functioning housing market, housing prices would be falling because increases in demand would result in increases in new construction. In the Bay Area, a major reason for the slowdown is that people are leaving — and taking their need for housing with them.”

From ABC 7 News. “The housing market in the Bay Area will experience a cooling period this year, similar to 2019, according to a national survey conducted by Zillow. ‘Just based on interest rates and stock prices going up and down and fluctuating, I do believe there is a little bit of a slowdown,’ Simon Shue, a real estate agent with Compass said. ‘It’s still in an upward trend but we’re experiencing a little bit of a plateau.'”

The Bay Area Newsgroup. “There’s a home on South Jackson Avenue in San Jose’s Mayfair neighborhood that has it all: excellent location within walking distance of a school, parks and shops; a nearly acre-sized backyard; and — a rarity in California — a basement. But for at least a decade it has sat unoccupied — one of an estimated 46,000 such homes in the five-county Bay Area. This estimated total comes from new data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in December. The bureau’s data is the best available, even though it includes some newly built homes that are not yet occupied.”

“Based on the new census data, San Francisco has the most vacant homes in the five-county Bay Area at 11,760. It’s followed by Oakland at 5,898 and San Jose with 3,985. After that, Berkeley has 1,738 vacant homes and Richmond has 1,560. The margin of error in most other cities is too high for the data, which is based on a five-year aggregate of numbers compiled from 2014-2018, to be reliable.”

“There are an additional 21,788 seasonal or occasional-use houses in the Bay Area — think weekend homes or beach cottages. Of those, 8,523 are in San Francisco, 1,337 are in San Jose and 1,060 are in Fremont. It’s not clear how the census data accounts for Airbnb properties and other similar, short-term rentals.”

Related Posts

Buyer’s Remorse Is Rampant

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoRgfixJsJ8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9jx9EepSDY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ-w7W0VRbE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOkcrnAi7Lk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFRmH9BhpWI

This Post Has 73 Comments

  1. ‘The charming Midcentury just hit the market for $3.35 million — or $150,000 shy of what he bought it for five years ago’

    DONG!

  2. ‘It’s still in an upward trend but we’re experiencing a little bit of a plateau’

    Somebody is a lion.

    1. Simon Shue, a real estate agent with Compass said. ‘It’s still in an upward trend but we’re experiencing a little bit of a plateau.’”

      But he is an expert in this field. Keep your day job Ben!

      1. Google “demon with forked tongue” and you will find one of the earliest references to a Realtor in the archeological record.

  5. ‘Just based on interest rates and stock prices going up and down and fluctuating, I do believe there is a little bit of a slowdown,’ Simon Shue, a real estate agent with Compass said. ‘It’s still in an upward trend but we’re experiencing a little bit of a plateau.’”

    The REIC spinmeisters are recycling the same lies they told in 2006-2007. Prices have “plateaued” but will soon be more like a soufflé – even as the cratering accelerates.

    1. “You know nothing about the real world.” Testify, Ricky G!

      The expressions on the faces of all these pedos, perverts, and vapid desiccated hags was priceless.

        1. “expressions on the faces”

          15 mins, yak, yak, … knot one mention of Karen or $tormy … whil$lt Barron was sucking on Meliane’$ teet …

          Go head Mr.Ben, please edit to yer preference.

          2. She’$ the by product of her father’$ ability to enjoy post. procreation suction, 9 million$ is (-291million$) le$$ Thee Donald, maybee she had to punch a time.card.

        1. He mentions nobody goes to theaters anymore. Hey Ricky, I’ve never heard of you before! These people in the audience are dinosaurs.

  7. Home decor retailer to close up to 450 U.S. locations

    By Alexander Soule Updated
    Monday, January 6, 2020

    Pier 1 Imports plans to close up to half of its stores nationally, with Bloomberg reporting the company is considering a bankruptcy restructuring.

    After closing a Westport store in 2016, Pier 1 has remaining regional stores in Danbury, Norwalk, Fairfield, Milford, Southbury and Branford, of more than 940 in all. The company stated Monday it is considering closing up to 450 stores.

    https://www.newstimes.com/business/article/Home-decor-retailer-to-close-up-to-450-U-S-14954036.php

    1. Once again, unsustainable levels of debt. Like a home buying debt donkey, everything looks great until some little downturn in income. Then you’re busted.

      1. x2 income$, @ 43% gross income$, x360 month$ … ea$y pea$y!I

        (Plea$e $upport your local over.priced $helter.$hack!)

    2. Once the next leg down in the Housing Bubble is undeniably evident, lots of collateral damage will land on dependent industries, such as home decor.

      2. Home decor has been on the way out for a while. Easy to explain why: couple gallons of Minimalist Millenial Gray paint, couple a Billy bookcases and Lack tables from Ikea, a couple of wally-words like Eat and Gather and Family from the Magnolia display at Target, and you’re done. If you want more knick knacks you pick one up the Goodwill. I expect Hallmark stores and Cracker Barrel to die with the Boomers.

        1. I have to say that’s one good habit i got from my parents, we never had more kick knacks that could fit on the fireplace mantle….no china cabinets No Home shopping Franklin mint plates, or cars or coins on the wall, none of that….

    3. Corporate America’s favorite investor-pleasing activity, Share Buybacks, as more than 50% are now funded by debt.

      1. $&P = +30% increa$e, on le$$ than 2.8% earning$ 2019

        More!, More!, More! … Fa$ter!, Fa$ter!, Fa$ter! 2020

  8. Neal Baer, the pediatrician-turned-TV-writer is asking less than he paid for his Brentwood home. The charming Midcentury just hit the market for $3.35 million

    Anyone else remember when $3 million would buy a true mansion, and real tycoons bought them for cash and lived in them? Of course now the tycoons buy whole islands, like when Larry Ellison bought Lanai for about $400M

    Now you get a plywood and tyvek shanty for 3M, and it has a mortgage because the buyer has a job and isn’t a zillionaire. A job that pays more than you or I make, but a job nonetheless.

  10. Aqdan, help poooooor Boring, they need yer wi$dom & fore$ight! (& tailwind$!!!) a$ yee preDICTed 5 month$ ago!

    Oh, Dec 2019 is done, please carry on with yer all knowning.ne$$: folk$ await get yer pronostigastion’$!

    1. aqdan, yer.thee.man!, tell everyone about how you KNOW that Boring is gonna Fly to heaven with all these dead $oul’$ … aqdan, Know$ all!!!!

      NATIONAL
      Pilots Criticize Boeing, Saying 737 Max ‘Should Never Have Been Approved.

      One of the nation’s best known airline pilots is speaking out on the problems with Boeing’s 737 Max jetliner. Retired Capt. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger told a congressional subcommittee Wednesday that an automated flight control system on the 737 Max “was fatally flawed and should never have been approved.”

      Sullenberger, who safely landed a damaged US Airways jet on the Hudson River in New York in 2009 after a bird strike disabled the engines, says he understands how the pilots of two 737 Max planes that recently crashed would have been confused as they struggled to maintain control of the aircraft, as an automated system erroneously began forcing the planes into nosedives.

      “I can tell you firsthand that the startle factor is real and it’s huge. It absolutely interferes with one’s ability to quickly analyze the crisis and take corrective action,” he said.

      The House Aviation Subcommittee is investigating the crashes of Boeing 737 Max jets in Indonesia last fall and in Ethiopia in March that killed a total of 346 people. The panel is also examining what role, if any, Boeing’s rush to develop the latest version of its popular 737 and the FAA’s process of certifying the new model as airworthy may have played in the tragedies

      1. “Pilots Criticize Boeing, Saying 737 Max ‘Should Never Have Been Approved.”

        Misleading title, i.e., fake news.

        It should have been something like: “Pilots Criticize Boeing, Saying 737s MCAS Should Never Have Been Approved.”

  11. Boeing has been a headwind it will soon become a tailwind. Nothing has changed because we are one week into the year. You need to follow Biden’s advice and learn to code. It is the Democrats’ answer to everything unless you are a news reporter losing its job in which case it’s a microaggression. PS I used the woke pronoun for reporters.

    1. No, you said: the Max 737 would be $ailing the global $kies bye Dec 2019, … another $wing, swisssssshhh & another mi$$, … $trike #23 …

  12. Cooling, eh?

    A expect a freeze.

    Between Baby Boomers who didn’t save for retirement and are expecting their home sale to pay for the whole thing (or at least for the cash-out refis).

    And Millennials who, on average, are paid 25 percent less than Baby Boomers had been at the same point in their lives and are facing higher taxes, collapsing public services, and diminished public benefits for their own old age as a result of the debts that have been run up.

    Should they take a huge mortgage on top of all of that? Hell no.

    1. The Boomer demographic started dying off years ago.

      Theres nothing left but the crying and skyrocketing housing inventory going forward.

    2. Millennials who, on average, are paid 25 percent less than Baby Boomers

      I suspect that Millennials make more than the parents and grandparents of the Boomers did. If they avoid the biggest credit bubble in history (unlike the Boomers) they will be better off than the Boomers.

      1. I was trying to really think about this the other day. You hear about wage stagnation but i wanted to put it in personal terms.

        I think around 1991 i overheard my mom saying my dad made about $60k a year. He didnt go to college, he was a framer who worked his way up to foreman and then a project manager.

        Nowadays my wife, who is a college professor, makes about $125,000 and that is considered a great income.

        When you consider the 30 year time difference, the inflation, all the years of low pay my wife had, and etc. it really does seem to me we are going backwards.

        The worst part is at some point my dad had to “finish his degree” to stay employed. Then he had to get a masters in management, etc. he just retired making a little north of 100k. So all that effort just treat water. Brutal.

        Its a small sample size anecdote but i feel this is an instance where thinking of our personal experiences can aid our understanding of the data.

    3. “Between Baby Boomers who didn’t save for retirement…”

      Religion is to blame by conditioning people to expect something for nothing…even in death.

      1. “Religion is to blame …”

        A.k.a: $alvation

        A$k knot what jesu$ can do for you, a$k what you can do for jesu$!

    4. ” … dimini$hed public benefit$ for their own old age as a result of the debt$ that have been run up”

      Fi$cal CON$ervative$ will con$tantly remind ye @ Thank$giving dinner: “Trillion$ U$ Dollar Defict$.Do.Knot.Matter!”

      $ad.

    1. “The Fed’s minutes revealed that after multiple expansions of this vast money spigot, which was previously set to lapse in January after getting the Wall Street trading houses through the year-end money crunch, instead it may be extended through April. The minutes read as follows:

      “The manager also discussed expectations to gradually transition away from active repo operations next year as Treasury bill purchases supply a larger base of reserves. The calendar of repo operations starting in mid-January could reflect a gradual reduction in active repo operations. The manager indicated that some repos might be needed at least through April, when tax payments will sharply reduce reserve levels.”

      Corporate and individual tax payments occur every April. The Fed offers no explanation as to why this April is different and requires a multi-trillion-dollar open money spigot from the Fed.

      The Fed’s minutes also acknowledge that its most recent actions have tallied up to “roughly $215 billion per day” flowing to trading houses on Wall Street. There were 29 business days between the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the latest Fed minutes, meaning that approximately $6.23 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street’s trading houses had been made in that short span of time.

      During the 2007 to 2010 financial collapse on Wall Street – the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Fed funneled a total of $29 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street banks, their trading houses and their foreign derivative counterparties between December 2007 and July 21, 2010. At the pace it is currently going, it would eclipse that $29 trillion before the middle of this year.”

      1. $6.23 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street’s

        $1 of overnight loans, repaid each time and re-loaned repetitively for a week is not $7 in “cumulative loans”. Wild exaggerations like this do not make what is going on easier to understand.

        2. $1 of overnight loans, repaid each time and re-loaned repetitively for a week is not $7 in “cumulative loans”.

          I was under the impression that the fed is being repaid with agency mortgage-backed securities whose value is dubious. In other words, a stealth TARP operation.

          1. Perhaps someone can shed light on this. My impression is that good collateral is required but that the liquidity is reabsorbed. As for order of magnitude, doesn’t $7 Trillion of worthless mortgages held by actual banks purchased by the Fed in a couple of months seem a tad unpossible?

            The Fed and the Treasury have been buying GSE MBS for a decade, but the total is a fraction of $7 Tr.

    2. Thanks to the Fed’s unlimited willingness and ability to supply liquidity, investors can rest assured that the stock market will always go up.

      1. PS Isn’t $6 trillion roughly 50% more than the amount pumped in as a response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis?

        And we aren’t even in a financial crisis situation at the moment! I wonder what size and variety of rabbit they will pull out of their hat in the next downturn?

  14. ‘The boom is off the rose: Permitting for new housing construction slow in Boston’

    https://www.universalhub.com/2020/boom-rose-permits-new-housing-construction-slow

    From the comments:

    Ok
    By ScottR on Mon, 01/06/2020 – 10:49am.

    Boomer

    Please stop
    By anon on Mon, 01/06/2020 – 10:59am.

    Please stop with the boomer name calling. It’s not amusing . It’s ignorant. It’s just as bigoted as racism, homophobia, islamophobia, etc.
    There are boomers that support more or less development,and boomers that range from progressive socialists to right wing Trumpsters and everything in between.

    Here comes the Waaambulance
    By ScottR on Mon, 01/06/2020 – 5:57pm.

    Wow, comparing this to racism is a giant stretch. As we all, like, choke to death on the smoke from forest fires or whatever, you might want to think on the fact that because it’s silly to hold individuals accountable for the collective sins of an entire generation, all we get is this rhetorical silencing phrase. Unfortunately it hasn’t proven effective for all the Baby-Boomer-age people who show up at “community meetings” to oppose the construction of more housing.

    1. “Please stop with the boomer name calling. It’s not amusing . It’s ignorant. It’s just as bigoted as racism, homophobia, islamophobia, etc.”

      Ok, boomer.

      1. Eye was “gifted” a year.pre.payed $mart phone (like Uncle.Warren eye own a $10 phone with no camera) here was my 1st text:
        🙈🙉🙊 …🐍🎲💲📉💣… 🌆🔪 💉💸💭 … ❄🎻

  15. From Wall Street on Parade:

    According to the latest derivatives report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Citibank, the federally-insured, taxpayer-backstopped bank owned by Citigroup, has sold protection to other banks, hedge funds, insurance companies or corporations on a staggering $858 billion of Credit Default Swaps. When a federally-insured bank sells protection to others on Credit Default Swaps, it is effectively taking on the risk of a default event. At a time of unprecedented levels of debt in the system and growing warnings about leveraged loans, that seems like a very unwise move by Citigroup.

    The OCC notes that Citibank has bought protection via a larger amount of Credit Default Swaps – a total of $898.8 billion. (See Table 12 in the Appendix of the report.) There is no guarantee, however, that these bets are properly aligned and will not, once again, blow up this bank along with a chunk of Wall Street firms or insurance companies that may be its counterparties.

    Credit Default Swaps played a central role in the 2008 financial collapse on Wall Street, as did Citigroup. It is an indictment of every federal banking regulator in the United States, as well as Congress, that Citigroup has been allowed to return as a major player in this market while using its federally-insured Citibank once again as a pawn in this game.

  16. The San Francisco Chronicle. “Has the Bay Area housing market finally priced itself out of reach for, well, everyone? According to a new survey of more than 100 economists and real estate experts, the answer is yes.”

    “The question is, will the Bay Area experience slower growth for the right reasons? Unfortunately, the answer is no.”

    “a major reason for the slowdown is that people are leaving — and taking their need for housing with them.”

    From ABC 7 News. “The housing market in the Bay Area will experience a cooling period this year…”

    ‘I do believe there is a little bit of a slowdown,’

    ‘It’s still in an upward trend but we’re experiencing a little bit of a plateau.’

    – Prices too high too fast. Check! Some may call it a slowdown, plateau, pullback, whatever, but it’s here. Others may look at history and acknowledge that RE has always been cyclical and we’re in another housing bubble. We’re in a spin cycle until you can’t hide it any longer. This is independent of the vast quantities of poop everywhere in SF, which is a whole other issue. The combination of housing, lefty policies, and dead unicorns should be quite the ‘sh*t show’ over the next several years.

  17. No worrie$, free FEMA paper towels are on there way to all U$ Citizens that provide a “Real.I.D.”

    MarketWatch | AP News | Jan 7th 2020

    6.5 quake strikes Puerto Rico amid heavy seismic activity

    The Electric Power Authority reported an island-wide power outage

  18. My millionaire Tax.Bidne$$ brother would argue that this a true.CON$ervative.e$timate!:

    Per$onal Finance |TaxWatch

    This former top Obama official says auditing more rich people would raise $500 billion$ in per$onal-income tax

    ‘Today, the IR$ has fewer auditors than it had at any point since World War II,’ a recent study by Lawrence Summers found

    MarketWatch | Andrew Keshner | Jan 7th 2020

    The audit rate has been falling since the start of the last decade. In fiscal years 2010 and 2011, the tax collection agency audited 1.1% of individual tax returns.

    The agency has been hobbled by fewer staffers over the years, losing almost 30,000 full-time positions between fiscal years 2010 and 2019. “These loses directly correlate with a steady decline in the number of individual audits during the past nine years,” said the agency report.

    The plummeting audit rate is a missed opportunity to rake in more money, according to research published in November from former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a high-profile economist who served in two Democratic presidential administrations.

    The federal government could have $535 billion more in its coffers in the coming decade if the Internal Revenue Serviceaudited returns as often as it did back in 2011 — when audit rates were higher than they are now — and focu$ed those audit$ on millionaire$ and billionaire$

    1. When I was doing public accounting in the 90’s, it was well known that almost no one got tax audits.

      1. Eye got$ audited in 1985, went in with a small box of “bidne$$” receipt$. The only i$$ue that arose after 1hr.40 mins was eye did knot have that actual owners title to my 1967 FJ45 pickup truck. (Used in my wood.working bidne$$). They IRS agent got the head supervisor to accept my DMV registration as proof of owner$hip. Afterwards, the agent told me that the good news was that eye would knot have to worry about being audited again for x5 years.

        (My brother asked me if eye was nervou$, eye responded: “No, eye’ve knot done anything to cheat or deceive the U$A collective national gubermint, … what?.me.worry?)

        1. I got audited in 1981, also concerning a woodworking business on the side. I took my 3 year old with me and my box of receipts. While we weren’t paying attention she opened a file cabinet drawer and dropped in a banana peel.

          The audit was over.

Comments are closed.