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A Trend We Saw Nationwide As Lenders Gradually Loosen Lending Standards

A report from the Herald Tribune in Florida. “In the third quarter, foreclosure filings rose nearly 10 percent compared with the year before in Sarasota and Manatee counties, with one in every 615 homes in some stage of distress, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. ‘The one sign that a modicum of risk is returning to lending is that we do see an uptick in foreclosure rates for FHA loans originated in 2014,’ said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM. ‘This was a trend we saw both in the Sarasota-Manatee area and nationwide, as lenders gradually loosen lending standards.'”

“And many local homeowners have been chugging through the foreclosure process for years. The average time to complete a foreclosure in Florida is 1,177 days, third-longest in the country, and some of the actions by lenders against homeowners this year are for older loans.”

“The FHA foreclosure rate on the 2014-vintage loans is slightly above the long-term average for FHA foreclosure rates in the Sarasota-Manatee area but still less than one-third the foreclosure rate for FHA loans originated during the peak of the last bubble in 2007, he said.”

“‘Our data shows that a significant share of foreclosure activity in the Sarasota-Manatee area is tied to the last housing bubble-bust,’ Blomquist said. ‘Specifically, 58 percent of all loans in foreclosure were originated between 2004 and 2008 — well above the 44 percent nationwide and above the 54 percent statewide.'”

The Miami Herald. “High-end real estate development has slowed to a crawl in Miami-Dade, with most builders taking a breath while the market absorbs a bounty of condos priced at $1 million and up. But three ambitious developers from outside the U.S. are betting on Miami’s enduring appeal with plans for ambitious condos priced in the mega-millions. The trio are proof that out-of-town investors continue to see a big future — and an even bigger payday — in Miami-Dade’s luxury market, despite sluggish sales and climate change concerns.”

“‘The rest of the world sees the U.S. as the safest place to move their capital,’ said Ron Shuffield, CEO of EWM Realty International. ‘The international developer is thinking about where they want to have their assets two or three years down the road. They feel there’s no better use of their capital right now than to build high-quality properties in markets where it will continue to appreciate, even though it’s not the best time to have a $5 million condo for sale.'”

“The monthly number of Miami-Dade condos listed on the Southeast Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during 2018 priced $1 million and up reflects the highest levels in history, according to EWM Realty International. On Sept. 30, 2018, there were 2,874 active sale listings — an 11 percent increase over the same period last year.”

“The glut is even more evident for condos priced at $5 million and up. According to EWM, the MLS listed 348 units in that price range as of Aug. 31, 2018. That’s a total of 58 months of inventory.”

“Lenders are bullish too — at least about some projects. Earlier this month, the Trump Group (no relation to the president), the developers who built Williams Island, scored a $558 million loan from Bank OZK (formerly Bank of the Ozarks) for their Acqualina project, which is valued at $1.5 billion.”

From Forbes. “Bank OZK lost more than a quarter of its value on Friday after the Arkansas-based lender (formerly known as Bank of the Ozarks) wrote off about $46 million in commercial real estate loans on two unrelated projects in North Carolina and South Carolina.”

“Regarding the retail property, CEO George Gleason told analysts ‘the appraisal’s focus changed significantly from an operating property that will continue to replace tenants and go forward to a property that would just essentially melt down.'”

“Arkansas-based OZK has expanded from its Appalachian roots in recent years, emerging as a leading CRE lender in major markets such as New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles. That lending has been seen as aggressive and risky, with a focus on construction lending far outside the bank’s home base.”

‘A CrediFi analysis of $7.5 billion in commercial real estate loans originated by Bank of the Ozarks from 2012 to 2016 found an increase in the share of the bank’s financing that was going to construction ‒ a CRE segment that tends to offer higher returns than standard commercial real estate financing, offset by greater risk. OZK’s construction financing rose from 8% in 2013 to 29% in 2016, the analysis found.”

“Despite the real estate losses, Gleason told analysts he was ‘confident’ that when 2018 is over the bank’s losses will be below the industry’s loss ratio. He also said the bank was staying the course. ‘We’re not changing our business model at all because we believe it is very, very sound and very, very conservative,’ Gleason said.”

This Post Has 16 Comments
  1. ‘The glut is even more evident for condos priced at $5 million and up. According to EWM, the MLS listed 348 units in that price range as of Aug. 31, 2018. That’s a total of 58 months of inventory’

    About three months ago it was a 20 year supply. Oh, right, the REIC likes to exclude stuff under construction and generally be a lion.

  2. ‘The one sign that a modicum of risk is returning to lending is that we do see an uptick in foreclosure rates for FHA loans originated in 2014,’ said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM. ‘This was a trend we saw both in the Sarasota-Manatee area and nationwide’

    Nationwide? So what happened to my hurricane?

    What he means is 2014 – and after. It was FHA that goosed the markets in 2014, even though they re supposed to be a counter-cyclical lender.

    ‘Our data shows that a significant share of foreclosure activity in the Sarasota-Manatee area is tied to the last housing bubble-bust,’ Blomquist said. ‘Specifically, 58 percent of all loans in foreclosure were originated between 2004 and 2008 — well above the 44 percent nationwide and above the 54 percent statewide.’

    Keep sending in those checks FB’s!

    1. 2004 – 2008.

      Oh the humanity. Sacrificing yourself for a decade to make the monthly nut and then collapsing exhausted and ruined.

  3. “Despite the real estate losses, Gleason told analysts he was ‘confident’ that when 2018 is over the bank’s losses will be below the industry’s loss ratio. He also said the bank was staying the course. ‘We’re not changing our business model at all because we believe it is very, very sound and very, very conservative,’ Gleason said.”

    Bank OZK , the next IndyMac bank in 2019.

  4. “‘The rest of the world sees the U.S. as the safest place to move their capital,’ said Ron Shuffield, CEO of EWM Realty International. ‘The international developer is thinking about where they want to have their assets two or three years down the road. They feel there’s no better use of their capital right now than to build high-quality properties in markets where it will continue to appreciate, even though it’s not the best time to have a $5 million condo for sale.’”

    They said the same thing about Manhatten in 2014. How did that turn out?

  5. Ben,

    I think it is a little ironic that you are posting an add here which shows up at the very top of the page. As soon as comments are opened it is hidden by a wide white banner “The Housing Bubble Blog”. Just sayin.

    1. It doesn’t do that for me. I’m going to have to do something with the ads eventually but lately I’ve been busy with family stuff.

  6. Wow, an article from right here in Sarasota. The HT is kind if a real estate dominated media outlet. A little surpised to see the article. Lots of ads for new developments and for brokerages.

    As for the Miami months of supply, it appears this data was from mls. In many markets, new construction units are not marketed through mls. If this is true for Miami area, you can imagine how many additional units are not included in the inventory report. Of course the closed sales of these would likewise not be figured into the sales volume as well.

    Miami was featured in “the Big Short” . Wonder if all these recent condo projects will show up in “Big Short 2” in a couple years. Looks like a replay is brewing. We are older but no wiser. Popcorn please.

    1. I was in Miami earlier this month. The Brickell area downtown already has several gargantuan condominium towers which, judging by how many lights are burning between 8:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. on a weeknight, are between 10% and 30% occupied. I asked one of my Uber drivers, who had been reduced to supplementing his day job by driving several hours a night because Miami has become too expensive, whether people lived there. He answered that the units serve as potential escapes for people who might need to flee their countries of origin for whatever reason.

      And then there’s the “Brickell City Centre” mall. Can anyone local afford to buy anything there? The best comment I’ve seen is that the mall is a place for wealthy Brazilians to buy superficial things.

  7. ‘We’re not changing our business model at all because we believe it is very, very sound and very, very conservative,’ Gleason said.”

    Wow. Just wow. The hubris is breathtaking.

    I hope their kinfolk back in the Appalachian hollers will take them in once it comes crashing down.

  8. But…but…the resident HBB parma-bear trolls, before they disappeared, assured us that loose lending hadn’t been an issue after the last housing bubble crash.

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