skip to Main Content
thehousingbubble@gmail.com

The Days Of Buying A House And Selling It For A Tidy Profit Five Years Later Aren’t Coming Back Anytime Soon

A report from Better Dwelling in Canada. “Canada’s recent real estate price boom is creating a lot of incentive for development. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation data show housing under construction jumped in Q4 2019. The number of homes currently being built across Canada is now at the highest level since… uh, ever. British Columbia represented 65,941 housing units under construction, up 2.39% from the previous quarter. Compared to a year before, this is an 8% increase. Currently, the number of units under construction is over 47% higher than any other previous peak.”

From Business in Vancouver. “According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp., Vancouver housing starts grew 20% in 2019 from 23,404 in 2018. ‘This is certainly encouraging news for those aspiring towards housing affordability. The pipeline of new supply, despite recent turbulence in the market, remains fully stocked,’ wrote realtor Steve Saretsky on his blog.”

“There is evidence that developers are getting stuck with new supply once it is built, according to data collected by Saretsky. In December 2019, 25% of new homes remain on the market after construction. This is up nine percentage points from its low of 16% in November 2017. Saretsky says this number is not cause for concern, but if it continues to fall developers will have more unsold inventory and it would likely result in a forced price reduction.”

The Canadian Press. “The figures released today by BC Assessment show the typical value of a single-family home in Vancouver has dropped 11 per cent, from $1.76 million to $1.57 million, as of July 1, 2019. The drop is more dramatic in the costly University Endowment Lands on the city’s west side, where values fell 16 per cent from $5.9 million to $4.95 million.”

From Mortgage Broker News. “Prairie markets will exhibit diverging housing trends this coming spring season, according to a new analysis by Royal LePage. Regina had a noticeable 2.8% annual downturn to $314,937 during the fourth quarter. The 1.2% increase in the median price of two-storey homes (to $387,892) was not enough to offset the declines in the bungalow (down 4.6% year-over-year to $286,402) and condo (down a massive 15% to $200,261) segments.”

The Regina Leader Post. “I am writing this letter about an issue that is impacting so many homeowners in the city and perhaps at large in urban Saskatchewan areas. As a homeowner, it is so frustrating to see how the housing market keeps dropping prices since 2013 and how the city turned a blind eye on this issue. While the city keeps increasing land prices, taxes, announcing new developments and issuing permits for more construction, existing homeowners are suffering from overbuilding housing inventories in Regina.”

“CMHC reported in November 2019 that ‘Regina continues to see a moderate degree of overall vulnerability, where evidence of overbuilding is signalled.’ Market value vs. city assessed value: Property prices in the housing market are far from the city’s assessed value. But the city is still charging high property taxes based on their incorrect assessments.”

“Financial loss on investment: Despite tougher mortgage rules, increasing land prices and fewer buyers in the market, builders keep piling up new housing inventory at cheaper prices. As a result, existing homeowners who purchased their house in the last seven years at a higher price are unable to see any appreciation in their property value and are losing equity towards their investment.”

From CKRM The Source. “It’s still a buyers market in Regina. A house price survey from Royal LePage Regina Realty shows the aggregate home price for properties in the Queen City dropped 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019. That sets the average home price year-over-year at around $315,000. ‘My crystal ball projections say the first quarter will bump along much like 2019 where things start to stabilize, while the second, third and fourth quarters will probably be a return to price appreciation,’ explained Mike Duggleby, broker with Royal LePage. ‘If you’re looking to sell and if you don’t have to, then you may want to hold on for a little bit. If you have to sell, prices aren’t what they were five years ago, so you have to price it realistically and it will sell.'”

“Based on the current housing market in 2020, Duggleby believes buyers have the best situation right now. ‘This is a very good time to buy property in Regina. If you wait six months, you may look back and wish you had bought in January.'”

From Post-Media. “Calgary housing prices are expected to stabilize in 2020 as the city’s real estate market settles into what is likely a ‘new normal,’ the Calgary Real Estate Board said. Six years after the oil price crash, Calgary’s real estate market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions, CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said at the organization’s annual forecast event. However, detached home prices remain nearly eight per cent lower than 2014 highs, and the days of buying a house and selling it for a tidy profit five years later aren’t coming back anytime soon.”

“‘It’s not going to be like what we had prior to 2014,’ Lurie told reporters. ‘We’re moving into slower, more normal conditions. When you compare it to other markets across the country, we’re looking a lot more like them.'”

“While improving conditions in the lower end of a market can eventually spill into the upper end of the market, this is not expected over the next year, Lurie said. Part of the problem is that while the city’s unemployment rate has improved from 2016, it is still high (6.9 per cent in November) compared to historic norms. The employment situation isn’t expected to improve significantly in 2020, and most of the gains that have been made so far have been in education and health care, not in the higher paid scientific and technical occupations.”

“‘We don’t have the same type of job growth in those higher-paid sort of salaries that we’ve seen historically, so, for that reason alone, it will take a lot longer to see those improvements filter through the higher end of the market,’ Lurie said.”

“Lurie said there are risks that could threaten CREB’s 2020 forecast. If recent job losses in the Calgary market continue into 2020, it will affect consumer confidence and housing market activity. In addition, if new-home construction projects exceed anticipated demand growth, this will slow the downward adjustment in overall housing supply and affect price stabilization. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., there were 3,101 housing starts in Alberta in December 2019 — a 117 per cent increase from December 2018.”

“Still, CREB CEO Alan Tennant said evidence of market stabilization is a reason for optimism, and added he believes ‘the new normal’ is nothing to be afraid of. ‘Normal may not be sexy and fun, but there’s still a lot of business to be done there,’ Tennant said. ‘That’s the start of maybe the dominoes starting to fall in the right direction.'”

From Global News. “Traeh Kish knows just how hard it is to sell a condo in Regina. She’s been trying to sell her Harbour Landing condo since June of 2017. ‘We have the price way below purchase price,” said Kish, who purchased the property brand new. ‘We have been through multiple real estate companies and just can not seem to sell. We have viewings, but have not had one single offer yet.'”

“It seems Kish isn’t the only one struggling. ‘Everything is down. It’s been a tough couple of years in the real-estate industry – on the retail side and new construction as well,’ said Craig Adam, REMAX Crown Real Estate. Adam said it’s not just the economy, but the number of condos continuing to be built. ‘There’s an oversupply…they keep building new condos…so on the resale side of things, there’s a lot of competition to sell your existing condo with the price driven down,’ Adam said.”

This Post Has 56 Comments
    1. More than a quarter of millennials planning to buy home have less than 1000$ saved. There must be a huge amount of sketchy lending going on. And like last time the full extent of the lending debacle will emerge in the post mortem. At which time everybody in the financial MSM will be aghast and dumbfounded with surprise at how this all happened…again.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/more-quarter-prospective-millennial-home-buyers-have-less-1000-saved

    2. Of all the places that might make clear just how absurd the housing bubble is.- Regina might take the proverbial cake. We took a road trip this summer from Seattle to Lake of the Woods (our ancestral home of sorts). Going through BC and Alberta, you can almost fool yourself as to the specialness of Vancouver and beautiful, mountainous parts of Alberta. Nelson, BC was a highlight. However, once you hit the eastern part of Alberta and continue through the mind-numbingly monotonous, flat Saskatchewan, it would be difficult to fool oneself into thinking there was a shortage of land. Regina and Winnipeg are literally in the middle of nowhere. There are no geographical limitations, and outside of river views, there are no geographical features to covet. The idea of a bubble existing in either of these places is ridiculous.

  1. ‘if new-home construction projects exceed anticipated demand growth, this will slow the downward adjustment in overall housing supply and affect price stabilization’

    Before Vancouver, before Toronto, Calgary was the shiniest, biggest bubble city in Canada.

    1. the problem is that many people are not yet really seeing it …. because of some ‘analysis’ (call it PR) of the stats. So many parents (including many of my relatives) are contributing down payments to their late 20’s, early 30’s children and grandchildren.

      It is going to take so many years to unwind

      https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2020/01/average-toronto-home-price-just-rose-much-most-people-make-year/

      Average sold prices in the city of Toronto, specifically, went up 5.6 per cent from January to December of 2019, according to Zoocasa, landing at $883,520 when averaged out across the year.

      “Median home prices rose by 8 per cent to $720,000,” Zoocasa notes, “a difference of $55,000 that accounts for nearly 94 per cent of the median Toronto household after-tax income of $58,264.”

  2. “‘We don’t have the same type of job growth in those higher-paid sort of salaries that we’ve seen historically, so, for that reason alone, it will take a lot longer to see those improvements filter through the higher end of the market,’ Lurie said.”

    Lurie, please explain how “those improvements are going to filter through,” since we’ve established that a major disconnect exists between median salaries and median home prices.

    1. That sets the average home price year-over-year at around $315,000.

      Realtors say the dumbest things.

      1. What’s the biggest lesson from this post? If prices are artificially high, builders will continue to build when the market is flat on its back.

      2. “Realtors say the dumbest things.”

        Not so dumb if you factor in the stupidity of their client base. They are simply saying to their dumb-assed clients the words that work.

  3. “Traeh Kish knows just how hard it is to sell a condo in Regina. She’s been trying to sell her Harbour Landing condo since June of 2017. ‘We have the price way below purchase price,” said Kish, who purchased the property brand new. ‘We have been through multiple real estate companies and just can not seem to sell. We have viewings, but have not had one single offer yet.’”

    Gosh, Traeh, the solution seems blindingly obvious. But since you’re bound and determined to chase to market down, I’ll just sit here and enjoy my popcorn.

    1. Any time I have a conversation with somebody lamenting the fact that they can’t sell something, be it a car, house or anything else under the sun, I ask them a simple question: Do you think it would sell for a dollar? They roll their eyes and harumph as if I’ve asked a really stupid question. I follow it with “the sale price is somewhere between a dollar and your price.”

  4. “Based on the current housing market in 2020, Duggleby believes buyers have the best situation right now. ‘This is a very good time to buy property in Regina. If you wait six months, you may look back and wish you had bought in January.’”

    What douche meant to say: “Look morons, my Benz or Beemer payment ain’t gonna pay for itself”

    1. “…Pelosi handed out multiple pens to the impeachment managers”

      A couple of ’em will be on eBay by summertime.

        1. True story. When the Super Bowl was hosted at Stanford stadium Apple supplied these white seat cushions with their logo to every seat sold. After the game a fatal stabbing ensued over one of those cushions. About a year later at the Capital Drive-In Theater’s flea market I saw one of those cushions for sale, badly faded from exposure, for $1.

  5. “Calgary housing prices are expected to stabilize in 2020 as the city’s real estate market settles into what is likely a ‘new normal,

    I went to the Calgary Stampede a few years ago. Great event. Highly recommended for anyone who likes rodeo. Canadian Rockies are spectacular. The cowgirls in Calgary are hot. I’d almost want to get a condo up there just to hang out and look at them.

    Non sequitur. Used to military flights over head in San Diego but there are some epic rumblings coming out of Miramar Airbase tonight and it’s not Blue Angels season.

  6. Small housing story at work.

    Non engineering coworker. Hard worker and smart.

    She told me today she owned a townhouse in Maryland a few years ago. Poor workmanship. Water got in behind siding/soffits and caused mold. HOA fees tripled. Could not sell for what she purchased it for.

    Called the bank to get a loan modification. Bank said no. She walked away and moved to Texas.

    Her credit got hammered. But that was about it. Until recently, her bank account was cleared out (a few thousand) by a collection agency. Found out when checks started bouncing.

    Luckily, she had money in other accounts. She says collection agency is satisfied and won’t be looking for more money.

    We shall see.

    I felt like I a just talked with a celebrity. A real modern jingle mailer…

    1. “Until recently, her bank account was cleared out (a few thousand) by a collection agency. Found out when checks started bouncing.”

      The twelve walk-away states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Idaho, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Washington.

      *Maryland isn’t among them. 🙁

  7. “Citing health concerns, the Denver Department of Public Health and Environment closed Lincoln Memorial Park across from the State Capitol Wednesday, as the city tries to contain what it calls a “major rat infestation.” The closure is expected to last several weeks and forced the removal of homeless individuals who had set up tents along the southern and western edges of the park.

    On Wednesday morning, police posted signs near the park that read that the DDPHE discovered conditions “associated with rodent infestation, human waste, and trash accumulation.” Meanwhile, health department officials notified the people camped out in the park that it was closed due to the hazardous health conditions.

    “We’re seeing a preponderance of food waste in the park, and that’s attracting rodents,” said Ann Cecchine-Williams, DDPHE’s interim communications director. “As you know, rats spread disease through their feces, their urine and through fleas. People are definitely at risk of getting sick if they stay in this park.

    Crews found and removed enough syringes to fill a large bucket, city officials said.

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/front-range/denver/denver-will-close-lincoln-park-in-front-of-the-colorado-state-capitol-due-to-major-rat-infestation

      1. Dont worry – the kewl kids in Denver (connected families) dont go there. Cherry Creek etc are fine for now

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Analysis
      The Era of Fed Power Is Over. Prepare for a More Perilous Road Ahead.
      Central banks have long exercised influence over booms and busts, but their ability is shrinking
      By Greg Ip
      Jan. 15, 2020 10:57 am ET

      The Federal Reserve and other central banks have long been the unchallenged drivers of financial markets and the business cycle. “Don’t fight the Fed,” goes one Wall Street adage.

      That era is drawing to a close. In many countries, interest rates are so low, even negative, that central banks can’t lower them further. Tepid growth and low inflation mean they can’t raise rates, either.

      1. “Prepare for a More Perilous Road Ahead.”

        For who…dishonest Wall Street, irascible Israel or tall blonde Jesus with perfect white teeth who might have to forgo the Mount of Olives itinerary and book a Carnival Cruise instead?

      2. “The king is dead. Long live the king.” Beware; there’s a reason this statement has endured.

    2. More!, More!, More!, … Fa$ter!, Fa$ter!, Fa$ter!

      It’$ a conundrum!

      … re$tin’ & awaitin’ the colo$$al capitulation’$ of over.priced $helter.$hack$ to compliment the colo$$al panic$ of over.priced Equitie$ … = 🔮💤 🛃🎁 ⏳💣🎈💥💲🌳 💄🐷📉 💰💳🏧 🚮 🚽😵😱😠 🔪🏠💉🏦🌊 🌀 🌋 🌏💸💵💴💶💷 🚫🚑🚫🏥 🃏 ❄ 👀 👏 😏🎾🎣🎳🎱🏊⛵🌺👣 🚂🍁🌻🌵✈💺🚲🚶🍀🗼🍴🍝🍔🍫🎫🎭 🎹🎺🎻 🎷🎸🍸🍺🍷🎆🎉

  8. does anyone have a melt-up primer?
    29,000 and growing
    wow,just wow
    UK in recession and the only reason germany isn’t is EVERYONE bought a gas car before the regs kick in.

Comments are closed.

Back To Top